Alex may head north to Texas or Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:36 PM GMT on June 27, 2010

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Tropical Depression Alex has held together fairly well during its passage over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and stands poised to re-intensify back into a tropical storm once it emerges from the coast tonight. Alex brought heavy rains to northern Honduras, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize over the weekend. It was not a good beach day in Cozumel yesterday, as 9.25" of rain fell. Cancun received 2.05" over the weekend, and Belize City received 4.57". Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms are mostly gone near the center, though there are some impressive bands of precipitation well away from the center. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 5 knots over the storm, contributing to the 5 knots of wind shear observed in this afternoon's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is currently not a problem for Alex.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.

Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am runs of the NOGAPS and ECMWF models, for example, take Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 day forecast range were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate that Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity. Residents of the Mexican coast south of Brownsville should make similar plans, as Alex could just as easily hit there.

Re-intensification of Alex is likely once the center of Alex moves offshore, though this will initially be slow due to the current disorganized state of the storm and the relatively low total ocean heat content in the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. A longer time spent over water will give Alex more of a chance to strengthen, and it is possible Alex could intensify into a major hurricane if landfall is delayed until Thursday or Friday. However, Alex's intensification may be limited the farther north it gets, as water vapor satellite images show plenty of dry air over Texas that might interfere with development. Wind shear might also be an issue for Alex if it pushes far enough north, and a slow-moving storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are plenty of roadblocks that make this only a 10% probability in my estimation.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts for Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands has been pretty much torn apart, and is no longer a threat to develop.

Next post
Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting an update on Alex late tonight. My next update will be Monday by 10am EDT.

Jeff Masters

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Alex to become a category 2 hurricane before landfall.


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2687. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:
WTNT41 KNHC 272035
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. NEAR THE
CENTER...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...PROBABLY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE MEXICAN NAVY SURFACE STATION AT ISLA PEREZ
RECENTLY REPORTED 30 KT WINDS...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT
AT 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX THIS EVENING AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
OFFSHORE.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF ALEX IS A LITTLE SLOWER...WITH A 12-HR AVERAGE
YIELDING AN ESTIMATE OF 300/8. THE PIVOTAL QUESTION FOR THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HINGE
ON THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE MODELS THAT SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS THE CMC/GFS/HWRF...
ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AND APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS...HAVE A STRONGER
RIDGE AND KEEP ALEX MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST INTO
MEXICO. OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS THOUGHT TO BE OF BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

WHILE THERE IS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF ALEX...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT. THESE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS SITTING VERY
NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR INTENSIFICATION. COMBINED WITH THE WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER ALEX MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GIVEN THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...IT IS SURPRISING THAT THE
GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION...LEAVING THE SYSTEM AS
A TROPICAL STORM FOR MANY DAYS. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...AND
IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


4pm Grothar!! A bit trigger-happy? LOL.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26655
2686. beell
Quoting Levi32:


That's why I'm looking at it...might be enlightening with its high resolution on the longwave pattern over the US.


Alwaz knew you was smart!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


in this animation we see all the players
From that "all the players" visual, you posted, looks like at least the top part of Alex is getting pulled northward. Like most agree, all in the timing. BTW I don't think he's moving hardly at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2684. Levi32
Quoting Snowlover123:


Lol, you sure? According to the NAM, Alex parrallels S. Texas and then starts heading SE!


That's actually not impossible when you look at the ridge building in to its north. Not that I trust the NAM...but it's not completely out to lunch with that track.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26655
Quoting atmoaggie:

Or, how about just a link...as if we all even need that...

Too late! :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2682. Grothar
000
WTNT41 KNHC 280241
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ALEX THIS
EVENING AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 42 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE PLANE ALSO
MEASURED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 41 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CENTRAL CONVECTION IS REFORMING...
BANDING FEATURES ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST. BASED
UPON THE AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON
SATELLITE IMAGES...ALEX IS ONCE AGAIN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.

ALTHOUGH THE 12-HR AVERAGE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6...
SHORTER-TERM FIXES SUGGEST THAT ALEX MAY BE MOVING EVEN SLOWER.
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UNUSUALLY
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WEAKER VERSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HENCE A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF/
UKMET/NOGAPS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PREDICTED A STRONGER RIDGE AND MOVE
ALEX ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE. THE OFFICIAL NEW FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS...SINCE THE
LATTER MODEL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME.

NOW THAT THE CENTER OF ALEX HAS EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS ALEX MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. BOTH OF
THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION
UNTIL LANDFALL. PERHAPS THE ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CIRCULATION...AS IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CYCLONE TO
CONSOLIDATE FURTHER. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS...
IT IS STILL PUZZLING THAT THE GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW ALEX
STRENGTHENING TO MORE THAN A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO
FORECAST A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO SHIPS/LGEM MODEL OUTPUT. IN ANY EVENT...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE SKILL OF 2 TO 3-DAY INTENSITY FORECASTS IS VERY
LOW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
has surely strengthened in the last hour
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2680. guygee
Quoting JDSmith:
In regards to the massive oil spill, does anyone have a wave height/surge/sea height anomaly model available to them?

I'd really appreciate the data. I live in Fort Walton Beach FL and would love to know how badly this will expedite the oiling of the beaches here.
Here is a decent animation of wave heights. It's going to be big.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Guess everyone posted it before me. LOL.

Nice I was right on my forecast.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:


That's why I'm looking at it...might be enlightening with its high resolution on the longwave pattern over the US.


Lol, you sure? According to the NAM, Alex parrallels S. Texas and then starts heading SE!
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
2677. Seastep
..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2676. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
01L/TS/A/CX
MARK
19.1N/91.1W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54420
No new cone yet...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2674. Levi32
LOL so I'm the only one who posted the public advisory....the rest of you jumped for the forecast advisory.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26655
Quoting Orcasystems:


Turn off those two trademarks in the upper corners... or you will get a email like this :)

Dear Sirs:

Thank you for your prompt action to remove the NOAA and NWS logos from
your hurricane track weather graphic product. These logos are
trademarks of the U.S. Department of Commerce/NOAA and their use by
private persons or firms on their products implies that a product was
generated by the NOAA or the NWS, when it was not. Such use violates
U.S. trademark law, applicable criminal statutes as well as the terms of
use applicable to NOAA/NWS weather information. We appreciate your
cooperation in resolving this matter.

Sincerely,

Glenn Tallia
Senior Counselor for Atmospheric
and Space Services and Research, NOAA


Agreed if you are making your own product, get rid of the NOAA logos. However they aren't really trademarks, and they can be used if the content of the image has not been altered. Per US law almost every image created by the government is free per 5 U.S.C. § 552.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting atmoaggie:

Or, how about just a link...as if we all even need that...
Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting floridaT:
whew i feel better TWC says it could be a hurricane by tomorrow night or tuesday and it will stay well clear of the oil spill. lol


There will be at least 3 storms that will threaten the oil spill y' know.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
00
WTNT31 KNHC 280234
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...ALEX REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 91.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND ALEX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND
GUATEMALA THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREA OF TAMAULIPAS AND
VERACRUZ TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
2669. Grothar
WTNT31 KNHC 280234
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...ALEX REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 91.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND ALEX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND
GUATEMALA THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREA OF TAMAULIPAS AND
VERACRUZ TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MSweatherguy:
Im up
hi, up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT21 KNHC 280233
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
0300 UTC MON JUN 28 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 91.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 20SE 20SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 20SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 91.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 91.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.1N 92.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 92.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.9N 93.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.6N 94.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 110SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.5N 96.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...225NE 125SE 60SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 24.3N 98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 91.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2666. Levi32
00
WTNT31 KNHC 280234
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...ALEX REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 91.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND ALEX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND
GUATEMALA THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREA OF TAMAULIPAS AND
VERACRUZ TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26655
Forecast and public advisories are out!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok! I'll be the only poster of the 11 PM advisory.

Or, how about just a link...as if we all even need that...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2662. JDSmith
Quoting LongGlassTube:
http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW-Surf-Charts/9/




Thanks a bunch. This is bad news no matter where it ends up. A large scale cyclone in the GOM is like... Dropping a rock into a pond full of heavy oil.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Im up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT21 KNHC 280233
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
0300 UTC MON JUN 28 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 91.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 20SE 20SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 20SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 91.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 91.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.1N 92.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 92.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.9N 93.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.6N 94.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 110SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.5N 96.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...225NE 125SE 60SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 24.3N 98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 91.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2659. Levi32
Quoting beell:
I don't think it hurts to take a peek at the North American Mesoscale model (NAM). Especially if you want to take a look at N American troughs! Not a bad model for continental weather imo.


That's why I'm looking at it...might be enlightening with its high resolution on the longwave pattern over the US.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26655
Quoting WildHorseDesertTx:
Greetings all, I used to post a lot on here, but got away from it for a year or so. I live near Baffin Bay, TX (about 50 miles south of Corpus, and 75 miles north of Brownsville.
We are watching Alex pretty closely, but my long experience dealing with tropical weather (55years) tells me that Alex won't be too bad as long as it doesn't hit above Port Lavaca or so. (midway between CC and Houston). I doubt it will have time to build up super strong if it hits down in our area or further south in southern Texas, altho any large amount of rain will really hurt the farmers, who will begin harvesting milo in the next 2 weeks...
I work at Naval Air Station Kingsville, and dread what work will be like tomorrow if we go under a Tropical Cyclone Warning (I know, I know, but the Navy decided to call it that). We will all be running around like ants, storing stuff and getting ready.
Again, hi ya'll!
Good to see u on the blog, and I am sure u realize at least SOME pple think u guys have a bullseye painted on u.... lol

Somebody earlier today was saying the MX landfall was better, and in a way they are right; if the worst of the wind / rainfall happens over the southern [Mexican] portion of the Laguna Madre, there is less farmland, human habitation etc to be impacted. But there's certainly no guarantee of that, and I'm sure the residents of Tamualipas don't feel a hurricane coming to their coast is a good thing....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
2657. CCkid00
Quoting DestinJeff:



thanks for that. that is what i remembered. they kept saying it was going to turn north and hit the Fla. panhandle. when it got past that, they said Ala., then Ms., until it turned north under La. i remember waiting with everyone for it to turn north and it didn't. i live 45 min. northeast of New Orleans.
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whew i feel better TWC says it could be a hurricane by tomorrow night or tuesday and it will stay well clear of the oil spill. lol
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2655. Grothar
Quoting Fl30258713:


You sure are quick on the draw,lol.



Though somewhat shallow along the coastal continental shelf areas, it plunges to an (estimated) maximum depth of over 13,123 ft (4,000 m) in the Sigsbee Deep, a flat abyss portion in the southwestern Gulf.
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Quoting Levi32:
10pm CDT advisory may not come out 20 minutes early like usual if they decide to wait for another center-fix from the recon which will be right around 10pm.
That's what I was thinking.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok! I'll be the only poster of the 11 PM advisory.


says who?! :p
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2652. beell
I don't think it hurts to take a peek at the North American Mesoscale model (NAM). Especially if you want to take a look at N American troughs! Not a bad model for continental weather imo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok! I'll be the only poster of the 11 PM advisory.


Lol, you wish. :)
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting atmoaggie:
Quick show of hands...guys that have sat to pee just so they could continue using laptop...
(sry, been killing me and finally got typed)
ROFLMAO! Not me, I haven't gone that far.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2648. Levi32
10pm CDT advisory may not come out 20 minutes early like usual if they decide to wait for another center-fix from the recon which will be right around 10pm.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26655
Ok! I'll be the only poster of the 11 PM advisory.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


Turn off those two trademarks in the upper corners... or you will get a email like this :)

Dear Sirs:

Thank you for your prompt action to remove the NOAA and NWS logos from
your hurricane track weather graphic product. These logos are
trademarks of the U.S. Department of Commerce/NOAA and their use by
private persons or firms on their products implies that a product was
generated by the NOAA or the NWS, when it was not. Such use violates
U.S. trademark law, applicable criminal statutes as well as the terms of
use applicable to NOAA/NWS weather information. We appreciate your
cooperation in resolving this matter.

Sincerely,

Glenn Tallia
Senior Counselor for Atmospheric
and Space Services and Research, NOAA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:


and that's a 1000mb Tropical storm.. imagine a hurricane.. if that were a perfect model (which it isn't) and a 1000mb TS would be pushed NNW/N by the trough, a CAT 2 hurricane would be thrown to the NE/ENE by a trough like that..



Yeah. I think that Alex will be stronger than what the NAM model thinks...
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW-Surf-Charts/9/


Quoting JDSmith:
In regards to the massive oil spill, does anyone have a wave height/surge/sea height anomaly model available to them?

I'd really appreciate the data. I live in Fort Walton Beach FL and would love to know how badly this will expedite the oiling of the beaches here.
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Pretty much stopped moving...

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's a couple miles off the coast so I doubt it is shallow. A couple thousand feet I would say.


The Bay of Campeche is very shallow especially along the eastern side. The maximum depth is 170ft. You have to get off of the continental shelf before depths drop dramatically.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2638. JDSmith
In regards to the massive oil spill, does anyone have a wave height/surge/sea height anomaly model available to them?

I'd really appreciate the data. I live in Fort Walton Beach FL and would love to know how badly this will expedite the oiling of the beaches here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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