Alex may head north to Texas or Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:36 PM GMT on June 27, 2010

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Tropical Depression Alex has held together fairly well during its passage over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and stands poised to re-intensify back into a tropical storm once it emerges from the coast tonight. Alex brought heavy rains to northern Honduras, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize over the weekend. It was not a good beach day in Cozumel yesterday, as 9.25" of rain fell. Cancun received 2.05" over the weekend, and Belize City received 4.57". Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms are mostly gone near the center, though there are some impressive bands of precipitation well away from the center. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 5 knots over the storm, contributing to the 5 knots of wind shear observed in this afternoon's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is currently not a problem for Alex.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.

Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am runs of the NOGAPS and ECMWF models, for example, take Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 day forecast range were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate that Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity. Residents of the Mexican coast south of Brownsville should make similar plans, as Alex could just as easily hit there.

Re-intensification of Alex is likely once the center of Alex moves offshore, though this will initially be slow due to the current disorganized state of the storm and the relatively low total ocean heat content in the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. A longer time spent over water will give Alex more of a chance to strengthen, and it is possible Alex could intensify into a major hurricane if landfall is delayed until Thursday or Friday. However, Alex's intensification may be limited the farther north it gets, as water vapor satellite images show plenty of dry air over Texas that might interfere with development. Wind shear might also be an issue for Alex if it pushes far enough north, and a slow-moving storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are plenty of roadblocks that make this only a 10% probability in my estimation.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts for Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands has been pretty much torn apart, and is no longer a threat to develop.

Next post
Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting an update on Alex late tonight. My next update will be Monday by 10am EDT.

Jeff Masters

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2737. emguy
From the NAMS point of view...I think I could confirm that breakdown of the ridge from a visual perspective where I live. Here on the SW Coast of Florida, all afternoon thunderstorms moved from south to north today. Definate sign the the ridge has weakened and we are on the western periphery over here as of now.
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Track has NOT changed YET

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2735. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting Grothar:
Look at this! I thought 94L was dropped?

Link
You do not use SSD labels because they are outdated. When looking for that information look at the FTP site.

Link
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Grothar:
Look at this! I thought 94L was dropped?

Link


It was, that is the ULL that ate 94L
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Okay everybody, it's late. Goodnight.
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Did anyone catch that Alex's TS winds extend out to 175 miles from the center? Wow! He's big.
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Following the board all day under the premise "read more, post less." Having said that, I'm too green to be a wishcaster or downcaster, but I will say this: The first storm of the year, has, before the end of June, given us much to think about going forward. Ominous, regardless of where it lands.
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2729. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Um... No.

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR


Um....yes.

ALTHOUGH THE 12-HR AVERAGE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6...
SHORTER-TERM FIXES SUGGEST THAT ALEX MAY BE MOVING EVEN SLOWER.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
TS Alex again!!!!!!!!!!,Hurricane tomorrow!!!
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Most interesting part of the discussion:

ALTHOUGH THE 12-HR AVERAGE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6...
SHORTER-TERM FIXES SUGGEST THAT ALEX MAY BE MOVING EVEN SLOWER.
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UNUSUALLY
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WEAKER VERSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HENCE A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF/
UKMET/NOGAPS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PREDICTED A STRONGER RIDGE AND MOVE
ALEX ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE. THE OFFICIAL NEW FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS...SINCE THE
LATTER MODEL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
2726. Grothar
Look at this! I thought 94L was dropped?

Link
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2725. leo305
Quoting floridaT:
whew i feel better TWC says it could be a hurricane by tomorrow night or tuesday and it will stay well clear of the oil spill. lol


I dislike mets like that.. when they say "A storm WILL do this" it already drops my level of respect for them. When things are so uncertain, you never say something will do something because it can end up doing something else .. Katrina didn't hit Palm beach county, Wilma didn't hit Florida as a TS, Ike didn't become Andrew 2.0 and hit Dade county, Humberto didn't slam onto Texas/Lousiana as a TD/TS... it's mets like that, that disgust me.
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Um... No.

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Grothar:


So am I.


Want me to wheel you back to the nursing home? Lol only kidding, the real Discussion is out now though.
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AOI


Inbound
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2721. angiest
Did anyone else catch that maximum winds extend almost 175 miles from the center? That's a sizable windfield.
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Quoting DestinJeff:

Notice pressure down to 991mb & cat 2 by Wed. This thing means business wherever it goes!
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Good evening Orca, you have to admit that even this morning TX wasn't in the model forcast plots. But I'm sure you will agree that all this model watching is senseless. Some of the better "forecasters" can't even look up their data before some on here are badgering them on where is it going, when is it arriving, what strength, etc... In a situation like that you can just flip a coin. At least then you have a 50-50 chance of being right...LOL.
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2717. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
And it's all about timing and strength , which the models can't seem to get ahandle on.


Exactly! If this somehow starts to move fast, it'll catch the trough sooner and even recurve as the GFS ensembles show. Though if this slow movement continues for 12 hours, chances are the trough passed and the ridge that builds in above it pushes it west into Mexico. People from North Texas, maybe SW LA down to Central,Northern Mexico should closely monitor Alex.
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Thanks Kimberlain...you really cleared THAT up...lol
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Apparently, the center is underneath the small CDO on the north side of the storm and not the area that everyone, myself included, has been watching along the coast.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hello Goodnight Everyone, looks like Alex is a Tropical Storm Again. Has it slowed down in forward speed from the last advisory?


Yeah. There are speculations that an upper level low to its north my be stalling it.
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 280241
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ALEX THIS
EVENING AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 42 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE PLANE ALSO
MEASURED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 41 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CENTRAL CONVECTION IS REFORMING...
BANDING FEATURES ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST. BASED
UPON THE AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON
SATELLITE IMAGES...ALEX IS ONCE AGAIN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.

ALTHOUGH THE 12-HR AVERAGE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6...
SHORTER-TERM FIXES SUGGEST THAT ALEX MAY BE MOVING EVEN SLOWER.
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UNUSUALLY
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WEAKER VERSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HENCE A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF/
UKMET/NOGAPS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PREDICTED A STRONGER RIDGE AND MOVE
ALEX ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE. THE OFFICIAL NEW FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS...SINCE THE
LATTER MODEL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME.

NOW THAT THE CENTER OF ALEX HAS EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS ALEX MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. BOTH OF
THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION
UNTIL LANDFALL. PERHAPS THE ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CIRCULATION...AS IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CYCLONE TO
CONSOLIDATE FURTHER. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS...
IT IS STILL PUZZLING THAT THE GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW ALEX
STRENGTHENING TO MORE THAN A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO
FORECAST A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO SHIPS/LGEM MODEL OUTPUT. IN ANY EVENT...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE SKILL OF 2 TO 3-DAY INTENSITY FORECASTS IS VERY
LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 19.4N 91.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 20.1N 92.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 21.0N 92.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 21.9N 93.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 22.6N 94.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 23.5N 96.7W 85 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 24.3N 98.8W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

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2711. JDSmith
Quoting guygee:
Here is a decent animation of wave heights. It's going to be big.


That's horrifying. I was in Destin on the west Jetty last week, and was startled to see that some weathered crude had washed up in a glob on the beach. There were, in addition to that bewildering spectacle... miniature tar balls scattered about at random all over the beach.

This doesn't bode well for the area.
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2710. Levi32
000
WTNT41 KNHC 280241
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ALEX THIS
EVENING AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 42 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE PLANE ALSO
MEASURED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 41 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CENTRAL CONVECTION IS REFORMING...
BANDING FEATURES ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST. BASED
UPON THE AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON
SATELLITE IMAGES...ALEX IS ONCE AGAIN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.

ALTHOUGH THE 12-HR AVERAGE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6...
SHORTER-TERM FIXES SUGGEST THAT ALEX MAY BE MOVING EVEN SLOWER.
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UNUSUALLY
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WEAKER VERSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HENCE A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF/
UKMET/NOGAPS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PREDICTED A STRONGER RIDGE AND MOVE
ALEX ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE. THE OFFICIAL NEW FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS...SINCE THE
LATTER MODEL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME.

NOW THAT THE CENTER OF ALEX HAS EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS ALEX MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. BOTH OF
THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION
UNTIL LANDFALL. PERHAPS THE ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CIRCULATION...AS IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CYCLONE TO
CONSOLIDATE FURTHER. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS...
IT IS STILL PUZZLING THAT THE GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW ALEX
STRENGTHENING TO MORE THAN A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO
FORECAST A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO SHIPS/LGEM MODEL OUTPUT. IN ANY EVENT...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE SKILL OF 2 TO 3-DAY INTENSITY FORECASTS IS VERY
LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 19.4N 91.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 20.1N 92.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 21.0N 92.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 21.9N 93.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 22.6N 94.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 23.5N 96.7W 85 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 24.3N 98.8W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
2709. LSU791
Quoting Orcasystems:


At this time...
There is not one single model going to NOLA, and maybe two secondaries that even touch LA.

Texas yes...

Will it change... yes... is NOLA out of the question No, but not even in the 123 at this time.


Let us not forget that Alex is one huge storm. NOLA does not have to take a direct hit to feel serious effects. Remeber it is not the point of landfall but the vast expanse that matters.
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2708. Grothar
Quoting MrstormX:


Dude thats old


So am I.
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My original post stands, track and prediction feels different than normal.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


It was easier to take them off :)
Last thing I wanted was the US Gov picking on me. They actually called me first, then sent the email after I removed them.


Lol, I would have done the same...
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And so TS Alex returns

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2704. Mikla
Mid-Upper Winds (100-500mb)...


Low-Mid Winds (400-950mb)...
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Quoting Levi32:


That's actually not impossible when you look at the ridge building in to its north. Not that I trust the NAM...but it's not completely out to lunch with that track.


UGH I do hope the NAM is a big fat liar.
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2702. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Clearwater1:
From that "all the players" visual, you posted, looks like at least the top part of Alex is getting pulled northward. Like most agree, all in the timing. BTW I don't think he's moving hardly at all.
hes going quasi stationary maybe just till it gets its bearing straight
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Quoting MrstormX:


Agreed if you are making your own product, get rid of the NOAA logos. However they aren't really trademarks, and they can be used if the content of the image has not been altered. Per US law almost every image created by the government is free per 5 U.S.C. § 552.


It was easier to take them off :)
Last thing I wanted was the US Gov picking on me. They actually called me first, then sent the email after I removed them.
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Hello Goodnight Everyone, looks like Alex is a Tropical Storm Again. Has it slowed down in forward speed from the last advisory?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon beginning to move in on the COC slowly.

000
URNT15 KNHC 280233
AF304 0401A ALEX HDOB 36 20100628
022400 2017N 09225W 9248 00689 0006 +213 +185 054027 028 031 001 00
022430 2016N 09224W 9248 00690 0007 +210 +184 053027 028 032 000 00
022500 2015N 09223W 9250 00687 0006 +213 +184 056027 028 032 000 00
022530 2014N 09222W 9252 00685 0006 +212 +184 054025 026 031 001 00
022600 2013N 09221W 9245 00690 0005 +213 +183 052025 026 031 001 00
022630 2012N 09219W 9249 00686 0005 +210 +183 050024 025 031 000 00
022700 2011N 09218W 9248 00689 0005 +210 +183 049025 025 031 001 00
022730 2010N 09217W 9252 00682 0004 +211 +183 050025 025 032 000 00
022800 2009N 09216W 9252 00682 0003 +210 +183 053025 025 032 000 00
022830 2007N 09215W 9246 00686 0003 +209 +183 055027 028 032 001 00
022900 2006N 09214W 9250 00683 0002 +210 +183 057027 028 032 000 00
022930 2005N 09212W 9245 00687 0000 +212 +182 057027 028 031 000 00
023000 2004N 09211W 9249 00682 9999 +215 +182 058027 028 031 000 00
023030 2003N 09210W 9252 00678 9999 +212 +183 056027 027 031 000 00
023100 2002N 09209W 9252 00678 9999 +210 +183 050028 029 033 000 00
023130 2001N 09208W 9254 00676 9998 +212 +183 052027 027 034 002 00
023200 2000N 09207W 9250 00679 9997 +214 +182 057027 028 031 000 00
023230 1959N 09205W 9244 00684 9998 +210 +181 055027 028 032 000 03
023300 1958N 09204W 9249 00679 9996 +210 +181 053025 026 031 000 03
023330 1957N 09203W 9250 00679 9996 +210 +180 054025 026 031 000 00
$$
;
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:


That's actually not impossible when you look at the ridge building in to its north. Not that I trust the NAM...but it's not completely out to lunch with that track.


Well, not very likely.
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2696. IKE
Any more?

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.5N 96.7W

Still headed for Mexico.
We can all go to bed now..lol.
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2695. amd
interesting center fix on the 11:00 p.m. advisory...

I thought it would be a bit further to the SE.
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Quoting Grothar:
WTNT41 KNHC 272035
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. NEAR THE
CENTER...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...PROBABLY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE MEXICAN NAVY SURFACE STATION AT ISLA PEREZ
RECENTLY REPORTED 30 KT WINDS...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT
AT 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX THIS EVENING AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
OFFSHORE.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF ALEX IS A LITTLE SLOWER...WITH A 12-HR AVERAGE
YIELDING AN ESTIMATE OF 300/8. THE PIVOTAL QUESTION FOR THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HINGE
ON THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE MODELS THAT SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS THE CMC/GFS/HWRF...
ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AND APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS...HAVE A STRONGER
RIDGE AND KEEP ALEX MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST INTO
MEXICO. OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS THOUGHT TO BE OF BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

WHILE THERE IS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF ALEX...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT. THESE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS SITTING VERY
NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR INTENSIFICATION. COMBINED WITH THE WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER ALEX MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GIVEN THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...IT IS SURPRISING THAT THE
GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION...LEAVING THE SYSTEM AS
A TROPICAL STORM FOR MANY DAYS. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...AND
IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


Dude thats old
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2693. Levi32
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting Grothar:
WTNT41 KNHC 272035
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010
?? A little old, Gro. Not nearly as old as you, but a little old, nonetheless.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
10pm is out.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Alex to become a category 2 hurricane before landfall.


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron