Tropical Storm Alex's Yucatan Landfall

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:52 AM GMT on June 27, 2010

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Update: Here's the 500AM EDT radar image from Belize. Alex's eye is roughly 150 km NW of the radar.


This Animated loop shows the development of Alex's eye. The page for Belize's radar is here.

The 500AM EDT forecast is a bit different than the previous forecast. Essentially, it looks like the area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will weaken due to a trough over the eastern US. This will weaken the steering currents and slow's Alex's motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The reduced storm motion will give Alex more time to intensify in a a warm SST/weak shear environment. The current forecast calls for Alex to become a category 2 storm before making landfall north of Tampico, MX late Wed. night/early Thursday morning.

The $64,000 question is "Will the ridge continue to weaken, allowing Alex to move north and continue intensification?" The 12Z global model runs will have more accurate forecasts than the the 6Z runs thanks to the presence of radiosonde data, so hopefully they'll provide an answer. It's still my opinion that Alex will not directly impact the oil spill recovery efforts, but I can't say that the chances of it doing so are getting smaller now.

This is Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff during the late shift. Tropical Storm Alex is currently moving over the Yucatan peninsula. Alex's intensity has dropped to 50 knots in the latest advisory with further weakening expected as the storm moves over land. After Alex moves into the Gulf of Mexico, intensification is expected because of warm sea-surface temperatures and weak vertical wind shear. An area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will guide Alex into a WNW-NW track. The 200AM EDT forecast calls for Alex to intensify into a category 1 hurricane before making landfall just north of Tampico, MX.

In my judgement, the chances of Alex moving northwards and directly interfering with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts are small and getting smaller with time. I agree with Jeff's assessment that Alex will generate 2+ foot swells that would interfere with skimming operations

Currently, the main threat from Alex is flooding due to heavy rains. NHC is forecasting rainfall amounts from 4 to 8 inches with higher amounts over mountainous terrain, causing flooding and possibly mudslides.


Fig. 1Forecast of 24-hour accumulated precipitation from TS Alex.

Alex's Belizean Landfall
Jeff saved this radar image of Alex making landfall.

Fig. 2Base reflectivity at 2315Z 26 June 2010 at Philip Goldson Airport

There isn't much storm structure apparent in the reflectivity data, just widespread areas of showers. Data from a nearby PWS shows that the peak windspeed was 43 mph. You can clearly see the circulation move past the station with changes in the wind direction and speed. You can also see when the rainbands passed over the station.

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is still out there, but it's not looking healthy. It's currently in an area unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis and NHC thinks it has a 0% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next two days. Current forecast models have 94L moving northwards and making a pass by Bermuda.

If things don't change significantly, Jeff is thinking about taking Sunday off. However, rest assured that if Alex starts charging towards the US, Jeff or I will put up a new entry. In any event, I'm planning on posting an update sometime late Sunday evening.

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1002. JRRP
144hrs
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looking at all the computer model runs the trend has been a bit further north i believe we will have landfall somewhere between tampico mexico and corpus cristi texas.
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1000. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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STORM!! Just the man I was looking for :)
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G-4 sniff now in da mix. Good.

The Late Weekend early Mon solutions will have some Sniffed pasta to digest.

NOUS42 KNHC 271500 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 27 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-027 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALEX
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 29/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0601A ALEX
C. 28/1730Z..........CORRECTED
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT


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Quoting Grothar:


Glad you narrowed that down. 14 million people are going to breath a sigh of relief now. LOL


Lol
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12z HWRF suggests a Corpus Christi landfall.

HWRF 12z 108 hours

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
12z GFDL full run....major northward motion early in the run with a massive left hooking turn at the end to keep it at the TX/MX border at landfall.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

PA, Port Arthur (in this discussion, anyway) is just a few miles west of the LA/TX border on the coast. Closer to Mississippi than to Mexico...


Oh, looks like low chance for ugly cats.
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993. JRRP
cmc is showing a strong tropical wave (at least) near antilles
Link
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Click the "quote" button underneath the post you want to quote, then type your comment after that. However I must warn you that half the time that button ends up refreshing the page.


If it does refresh the page the first time, then you have to go back and find the post you want to quote and hit quote again. It has always worked for me the second try, if not the first...
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991. 606
Looks like ALEX will explode with rapid strengthing once it gets over open water.Individuals along the panhandle down to the present location PLEASE take all necessary precations . I lived through ALLEN on the island of ST.LUCIA. The memories are still fresh in my mind. I was only eleven years. (ALLEN 1980)
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Quoting atmoaggie:

That La guy has said that about his great-grandfather before...I don't believe it to be humor.


Look up Lawerence Menard
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Atmo, Levi, et al.

Rainbow floater

Pay attention to the NE quadrant at 13:45 and 14:15. The convection is waining, but appears to be moving northerly. Likely just a wobble combined with rotation of convection, but I figured I'd put it out for your inspections.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I say anywhere from Veracruz, Veracruz to St. Petersburg, Florida.


Glad you narrowed that down. 14 million people are going to breath a sigh of relief now. LOL
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Quoting Grothar:


Told you last night, remember? No one ever listens. ah hum!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I was here until 2AM, so you probably didn't say anything, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
12z GFDL looks near TX/MX border.

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984. xcool
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i can zoom it in closer
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Quoting Levi32:
Corpus Cristi on the 12z HWRF.

That is not good. Alex could intensify to disastrous proportions if that model were to come to fruition
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21195
2PM advisory likely to stay the same due to the fact that Alex is still over land, but chances are that he will become a tropical storm later today...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Is that about where the 12Z GFDL has Alex?



PA, Port Arthur (in this discussion, anyway) is just a few miles west of the LA/TX border on the coast. Closer to Mississippi than to Mexico...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Obvious WNW motion there.


Told you last night, remember? No one ever listens. ah hum!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
point of impact for second landfall will be north of tampico to just south of cuidad victoria mexico


I say anywhere from Veracruz, Veracruz to St. Petersburg, Florida.
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12z UKMET says Mexico.

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Is Storm or anyone around? I'd really like to get his take on the new models. I know he was talking about this yesterday. Of course, I don't like the pull north in these models (but I know models change).
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Click the "quote" button underneath the post you want to quote, then type your comment after that. However I must warn you that half the time that button ends up refreshing the page.

with scripting off on a mobile device (intentionally, to load pages reasonably quick), the button doesn't do anything...could be related.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
CMC 12z 84 hours. With a track like that, Alex could easily become a major hurricane.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Here's the 12z CMC which we've already seen....not as strong of a storm as last night's 0z run but the track is still a big problem and goes straight north.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Click the "quote" button underneath the post you want to quote, then type your comment after that. However I must warn you that half the time that button ends up refreshing the page.


thanks Astro! trying it out now.
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A Texas landfall is becoming more probable with every analysis I conduct and with every model run that passes by. Now I'm eager to see what the big honcho, the ECMWF shows.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Station 42001 (LLNR 1400) - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA

Conditions at 42001 as of
(11:50 am CDT)
1650 GMT on 06/27/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )

5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts

5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts

5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec

5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec

5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.85 in

5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.6 °F

5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.5 °F

5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.3 °F

5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 92.1 °F


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967. JRRP
Link
CMC
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Man, I hope it isn't near PA. That's close enough for an 01L problem, here.

And not to make light of what anyone else might have to endure, but that would mean at least a few days of MIL and her 5 little ugly-cats (small, yappy dogs) under-foot. Not cool.


Is that about where the 12Z GFDL has Alex?


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965. amd
looks like Alex has about 2 or 3 hours on land to go before it hits water again.

Also, it seems that the inner core of Alex has slightly weakened in the past few hours, therefore it may take a bit longer for Alex to ramp itself back up to tropical storm status. Also, IMO, it may stay on the southern side of the guidance until a new inner core becomes truly established.
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Corpus Cristi on the 12z HWRF.

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Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI




Thats about right Pat because we are having a storm just to my south and east to my house and here Thunder very close now....

Taco :o)
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Quoting Levi32:
12z HWRF a little farther north.



Even further north than that..continues on a NW heading

Member Since: June 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
Quoting CCkid00:
Atmo....don't know how to quote yet....but i also worked at Mr. Gattis as a teen.....i'm 42 now. my husband and i take our kids there to eat now! small world.


Click the "quote" button underneath the post you want to quote, then type your comment after that. However I must warn you that half the time that button ends up refreshing the page.
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960. xcool
all models further north
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


no
thats the fact jack


Bill, is that you?
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Man, I hope it isn't near PA. That's close enough for an 01L problem, here.

And not to make light of what anyone else might have to endure, but that would mean at least a few days of MIL and her 5 little ugly-cats (small, yappy dogs) under-foot. Not cool.
LMBO and I do understand!!!!

Taco :o)
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12z HWRF a little farther north.

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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Thats your opinion...


no
thats the fact jack
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NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI




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Quoting CCkid00:
Atmo....don't know how to quote yet....but i also worked at Mr. Gattis as a teen.....i'm 42 now. my husband and i take our kids there to eat now! small world.

Hah! I was there almost 10 years behind you.
;-)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Different, but interesting models if ya like :)

WFR Model 06Z


06Z Wavewatch III
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


I say this is a Brownsville, TX to Port Aurthur, TX event. Port Aurthur, TX is a city right on the TX/LA border.

Man, I hope it isn't near PA. That's close enough for an 01L problem, here.

And not to make light of what anyone else might have to endure, but that would mean at least a few days of MIL and her 5 little ugly-cats (small, yappy dogs) under-foot. Not cool.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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