Tropical Storm Alex's Yucatan Landfall

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:52 AM GMT on June 27, 2010

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Update: Here's the 500AM EDT radar image from Belize. Alex's eye is roughly 150 km NW of the radar.


This Animated loop shows the development of Alex's eye. The page for Belize's radar is here.

The 500AM EDT forecast is a bit different than the previous forecast. Essentially, it looks like the area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will weaken due to a trough over the eastern US. This will weaken the steering currents and slow's Alex's motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The reduced storm motion will give Alex more time to intensify in a a warm SST/weak shear environment. The current forecast calls for Alex to become a category 2 storm before making landfall north of Tampico, MX late Wed. night/early Thursday morning.

The $64,000 question is "Will the ridge continue to weaken, allowing Alex to move north and continue intensification?" The 12Z global model runs will have more accurate forecasts than the the 6Z runs thanks to the presence of radiosonde data, so hopefully they'll provide an answer. It's still my opinion that Alex will not directly impact the oil spill recovery efforts, but I can't say that the chances of it doing so are getting smaller now.

This is Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff during the late shift. Tropical Storm Alex is currently moving over the Yucatan peninsula. Alex's intensity has dropped to 50 knots in the latest advisory with further weakening expected as the storm moves over land. After Alex moves into the Gulf of Mexico, intensification is expected because of warm sea-surface temperatures and weak vertical wind shear. An area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will guide Alex into a WNW-NW track. The 200AM EDT forecast calls for Alex to intensify into a category 1 hurricane before making landfall just north of Tampico, MX.

In my judgement, the chances of Alex moving northwards and directly interfering with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts are small and getting smaller with time. I agree with Jeff's assessment that Alex will generate 2+ foot swells that would interfere with skimming operations

Currently, the main threat from Alex is flooding due to heavy rains. NHC is forecasting rainfall amounts from 4 to 8 inches with higher amounts over mountainous terrain, causing flooding and possibly mudslides.


Fig. 1Forecast of 24-hour accumulated precipitation from TS Alex.

Alex's Belizean Landfall
Jeff saved this radar image of Alex making landfall.

Fig. 2Base reflectivity at 2315Z 26 June 2010 at Philip Goldson Airport

There isn't much storm structure apparent in the reflectivity data, just widespread areas of showers. Data from a nearby PWS shows that the peak windspeed was 43 mph. You can clearly see the circulation move past the station with changes in the wind direction and speed. You can also see when the rainbands passed over the station.

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is still out there, but it's not looking healthy. It's currently in an area unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis and NHC thinks it has a 0% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next two days. Current forecast models have 94L moving northwards and making a pass by Bermuda.

If things don't change significantly, Jeff is thinking about taking Sunday off. However, rest assured that if Alex starts charging towards the US, Jeff or I will put up a new entry. In any event, I'm planning on posting an update sometime late Sunday evening.

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Alex now re-emerging into the Gulf of Mexico...
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C- (Port O'Connor)
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Quoting StormW:


Where the center comes across.
Good answer! I think making predictions is pretty iffy right now lol
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Quoting Tazmanian:
whats that down in the SW Caribbean


A flare-up of Alex's southern convective spiral bands.
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Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East


f. Anywhere
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1046. CCkid00
the rain showing up on radar in Lake Ponchatrain and along the coast of La.....is that from Alex?
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Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East


C
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Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East


f. Belize (it already made landfall there)
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


C or D.
also C or D
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1041. tkeith
Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East
Belize...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
Quoting Levi32:
12z GFDL looks near TX/MX border.



Yup. Near Brownsville, like I think it will go. We will see what the 12Z Euro says! (Did the 12Z UKMET go north or south?)
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Quoting Patrap:


Nice circulation for being over land so long.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


I say this is a Brownsville, TX to Port Aurthur, TX event. Port Aurthur, TX is a city right on the TX/LA border.
Are you serious? Do you really think this will affect Louisiana? I've been watching it, but havent been worried. Should I worry?
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Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East


c
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Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East



C and D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1032. Patrap
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Quoting Grothar:


If you had paid attention to Storm and Levi, earlier last night it was mentioned. Go back and scroll late afternon and early evening. We mentioned it a couple of times. We have to keep you on your toes, Miami!!!!! LOL

LMAO! Well that WNW motion became apparent since last night.
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1030. Grothar
Quoting StormW:
979. Grothar 1:31 PM EDT on June 27, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Obvious WNW motion there.



Told you last night, remember? No one ever listens. ah hum!!!!!!!!!!!!!


This became apparent with the digging of that trof last night.


You called it night! Interesting to see what happens. I wish I knew more how these things work.
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Quoting errantlythought:
Atmo, Levi, et al.

Rainbow floater

Pay attention to the NE quadrant at 13:45 and 14:15. The convection is waining, but appears to be moving northerly. Likely just a wobble combined with rotation of convection, but I figured I'd put it out for your inspections.

I don't think there is much of significance to see there...just a land-bound former TS doing it's thing.
2 frames of convection can play all sorts of tricks on the eyes...
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1028. Patrap
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1027. Patrap

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
have you run the lego block model yet
Huh? Lol.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


That's not as nearly as strong or scary as the 00z run, which showed two retrograde loops and more time for rapid intensification; a scenario like that could really throw off the NHC forecasters.
Well you really have to discount the intensity it shows but rather the track. If Alex were to do a track like that it can easily become a major hurricane because of the favorable conditions. And the fact that it would be much more time over water instead of making landfall by Texas.
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Are conditions favorable for Alex to strengthen once he makes it over the Gulf? Will Alex encounter any wind shear?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i can zoom it in closer


The southern COC is drifting west toward the Laguna, but is a new COC developing to its north?
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Afternoon everyone! Alex dipping his toes in the BOC and testing the water?
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guys remember there is no 2PM advisory for those who are waiting for it all watches and warnings were dropped earlier
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oh......... ok
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1018. Levi32
GFS wind shear 102 hours....amazing upper anticyclone over Alex in the NW gulf. Great outflow jets all around.

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1017. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I was here until 2AM, so you probably didn't say anything, lol.


If you had paid attention to Storm and Levi, earlier last night it was mentioned. Go back and scroll late afternon and early evening. We mentioned it a couple of times. We have to keep you on your toes, Miami!!!!! LOL

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1016. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z HWRF suggests a Corpus Christi landfall.

HWRF 12z 108 hours

have you run the lego block model yet
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Shortwave floater actually shows a system in pretty bad shape to be honest.
??? Who uses shortwave during the daytime?
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Look up Lawerence Menard

Oh, I believe ya. A misunderstanding among others...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1012. Patrap



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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
CMC 12z 84 hours. With a track like that, Alex could easily become a major hurricane.



That's not as nearly as strong or scary as the 00z run, which showed two retrograde loops and more time for rapid intensification; a scenario like that could really throw off the NHC forecasters.
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1010. jpsb
Quoting RecordSeason:
Shortwave floater actually shows a system in pretty bad shape to be honest.
I only have a couple of working links (WTF) but yeah, Alex is not looking very strong on my last two functioning links.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


If you're in Key West right now, yes that is one of Alex's outer bands.
what rain bands there is no rain on the long range or short range doppler radar only some rain over the everglades ?????
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Quoting Tazmanian:
whats that down in the SW Caribbean
Flare up of convection caused by the monsoon trough. In other words, it isn't anything to worry about and will likely die down as nighttime approaches.
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Quoting Levi32:
a href="http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010062712-alex01l&field=Sea+Level+Pressur e&ho ur=Animation:<12z GFDL full run....major northward motion early in the run with a massive left hooking turn at the end to keep it at the TX/MX border at landfall.
Indeed. Probably shows the ridge setting in real quickly.
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whats that down in the SW Caribbean
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Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI






If you're in Key West right now, yes that is one of Alex's outer bands.
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1002. JRRP
144hrs
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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