Tropical Storm Alex's Yucatan Landfall

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:52 AM GMT on June 27, 2010

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Update: Here's the 500AM EDT radar image from Belize. Alex's eye is roughly 150 km NW of the radar.


This Animated loop shows the development of Alex's eye. The page for Belize's radar is here.

The 500AM EDT forecast is a bit different than the previous forecast. Essentially, it looks like the area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will weaken due to a trough over the eastern US. This will weaken the steering currents and slow's Alex's motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The reduced storm motion will give Alex more time to intensify in a a warm SST/weak shear environment. The current forecast calls for Alex to become a category 2 storm before making landfall north of Tampico, MX late Wed. night/early Thursday morning.

The $64,000 question is "Will the ridge continue to weaken, allowing Alex to move north and continue intensification?" The 12Z global model runs will have more accurate forecasts than the the 6Z runs thanks to the presence of radiosonde data, so hopefully they'll provide an answer. It's still my opinion that Alex will not directly impact the oil spill recovery efforts, but I can't say that the chances of it doing so are getting smaller now.

This is Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff during the late shift. Tropical Storm Alex is currently moving over the Yucatan peninsula. Alex's intensity has dropped to 50 knots in the latest advisory with further weakening expected as the storm moves over land. After Alex moves into the Gulf of Mexico, intensification is expected because of warm sea-surface temperatures and weak vertical wind shear. An area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will guide Alex into a WNW-NW track. The 200AM EDT forecast calls for Alex to intensify into a category 1 hurricane before making landfall just north of Tampico, MX.

In my judgement, the chances of Alex moving northwards and directly interfering with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts are small and getting smaller with time. I agree with Jeff's assessment that Alex will generate 2+ foot swells that would interfere with skimming operations

Currently, the main threat from Alex is flooding due to heavy rains. NHC is forecasting rainfall amounts from 4 to 8 inches with higher amounts over mountainous terrain, causing flooding and possibly mudslides.


Fig. 1Forecast of 24-hour accumulated precipitation from TS Alex.

Alex's Belizean Landfall
Jeff saved this radar image of Alex making landfall.

Fig. 2Base reflectivity at 2315Z 26 June 2010 at Philip Goldson Airport

There isn't much storm structure apparent in the reflectivity data, just widespread areas of showers. Data from a nearby PWS shows that the peak windspeed was 43 mph. You can clearly see the circulation move past the station with changes in the wind direction and speed. You can also see when the rainbands passed over the station.

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is still out there, but it's not looking healthy. It's currently in an area unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis and NHC thinks it has a 0% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next two days. Current forecast models have 94L moving northwards and making a pass by Bermuda.

If things don't change significantly, Jeff is thinking about taking Sunday off. However, rest assured that if Alex starts charging towards the US, Jeff or I will put up a new entry. In any event, I'm planning on posting an update sometime late Sunday evening.

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NHCs forecast track doesn't have landfall until Thursday morning in northern Mexico; if its further north you are talking Friday

So Alex has a good 3-5 days over the Gulf
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My track I created last night.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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1100. txjac
I'm from Texas ..in Houston
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Here we go...!

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i just gotta know...who all in here is from texas....if you are ....say so...
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Quoting MrstormX:
...TROPICAL STORM ALEX...

HPC RECOMMENDS FOLLOWING THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST AND ALL OTHER
INFORMATION CONCERNING TROPICAL STORM ALEX DURING THE SHORT RANGE
FCST PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS IS A SLOWER/FARTHER NORTH OUTLIER... THE
00Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET ARE MORE SRN OUTLIERS AND THE 12Z NAM/09Z
SREF MEAN ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO BUT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER
WITH ALEX.

CONCERNING THE NRN EXTENT OF ALEX... A VORT LOBE/INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS WILL SWEEP TO THE NORTH AND WEST APPROACHING THE CENTRAL/WEST
GULF COAST STATES. THE 12Z GFS IS CONTAINING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH AFFECTS THE DAY 2 AND 3 QPF
...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO CONTAIN NO FEEDBACK AND MIGHT BE
BETTER TO USE. FOR MORE ON THE QPF ASPECT FROM THIS END... PLEASE
REFER TO THE QPFPFD LATER THIS AFTN.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

MUSHER




So, NHC, all of the other models that are further north have "convective issues" as well? Although, the GFS was extremely erratic with the Low Pressure's path.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

I don't think there is much of significance to see there...just a land-bound former TS doing it's thing.
2 frames of convection can play all sorts of tricks on the eyes...


Should certainly hope that's all it is. Didnt mean to imply it's necessarily a more northerly influence, but that it might bear watching in further frames.

Also, that seabreeze front isnt a normal seabreeze. For one, it's too early in the afternoon, and I can feel the damn thing. (Though according to the WUgauge the pressure has risen over the past few min)
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Hi all... Alex is about to head back out over water I see. As always, there is no good place for him to make a second landfall.
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1093. Patrap
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Quoting MrstormX:


f. Anywhere


Somewhere between Texas and Lousianna.
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Quoting beell:
Anybody watching that spurious mid-upper shear axis along the gulf coast? Weakening the ridge perhaps?

Photobucket
Link
No, but now that you pointed it out, yes.
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1089. beell
Anybody watching that spurious mid-upper shear axis along the gulf coast? Weakening the ridge perhaps?

Photobucket
Link
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1088. txjac
Wow, I like that link ...thanks!
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1086. Patrap
Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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...TROPICAL STORM ALEX...

HPC RECOMMENDS FOLLOWING THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST AND ALL OTHER
INFORMATION CONCERNING TROPICAL STORM ALEX DURING THE SHORT RANGE
FCST PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS IS A SLOWER/FARTHER NORTH OUTLIER... THE
00Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET ARE MORE SRN OUTLIERS AND THE 12Z NAM/09Z
SREF MEAN ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO BUT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER
WITH ALEX.

CONCERNING THE NRN EXTENT OF ALEX... A VORT LOBE/INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS WILL SWEEP TO THE NORTH AND WEST APPROACHING THE CENTRAL/WEST
GULF COAST STATES. THE 12Z GFS IS CONTAINING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH AFFECTS THE DAY 2 AND 3 QPF
...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO CONTAIN NO FEEDBACK AND MIGHT BE
BETTER TO USE. FOR MORE ON THE QPF ASPECT FROM THIS END... PLEASE
REFER TO THE QPFPFD LATER THIS AFTN.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

MUSHER


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http://www.wunderground.com/blog/WeathermanAG/comment.html?entrynum=1
Check out my new blog on Alex!
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Quoting StormW:


Soon

Definitely

Too long.


How long is"Too Long"?
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
Quoting CCkid00:
the rain showing up on radar in Lake Ponchatrain and along the coast of La.....is that from Alex?

Kinda, yeah. Hearing the rumbles, atm.

Almost lost this among all of the "-"s I handed out for voting on nothing, as if Alex is being elected or our vote counts for anything. Post waste.
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Western edge of the circulation almost over water now, interesting 6hours ahead!
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Good afternoon Wunderblog-

I was wondering... are the storms rolling off Africa being subject to high sheer and that's why they are dissipating ? If so, perhaps the next wave (and what seems to be a powerful low) that is about to to exit the african continent will dissipate upon entering the atlantic. Anyone on this thing have any knowledge regarding whether the eastern and central atlantic is conducive for tropical development for the next week?
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nice looking wave in the CATL 1300miles
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Quoting StormW:


Soon

Definitely

Too long.


scary thoughts StormW, and that forecasted anti-cylcone gives Alex near primo conditions to intensify basically as much as it wants
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I was thinking that too lol
LOL!!
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Quoting Torgen:


That's why he will be the only one to post it! :D


I was thinking that too lol
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1073. jpsb
Quoting louisianaboy444:
I think anybody from Northern Mexico to Central Louisiana now has to watch this...The most important thing is that the models are now showing the trough being stronger and picking the system up....Even the GFDl although it builds the ridge in quickly thereafter still shows a Northern move...Even the HWRF has shifted Northward also...This could make Landfall in any city between Mexico and Louisiana with that trough...
Quoting louisianaboy444:
I think anybody from Northern Mexico to Central Louisiana now has to watch this...The most important thing is that the models are now showing the trough being stronger and picking the system up....Even the GFDl although it builds the ridge in quickly thereafter still shows a Northern move...Even the HWRF has shifted Northward also...This could make Landfall in any city between Mexico and Louisiana with that trough...
I am going to wait until monday PM to hit the panic button.
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1072. s1ecr
Quoting wfyweather:
poll time.. where will it make landfall?

a. Mexico
B. tx/mx border
c. Deep south texas
d. Southeast Texas
e. Further East


e
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Quoting MrstormX:


Thats what you think


What the point of posting it..Everyone here knows where to retrieve it.
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1070. xcool
5pm
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This is one of the coolest and best looking satellites I have seen, When sped up, i can see a NW change in the last few frames. GOM Loop!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


there is NO 2pm advisory


Correct next adv is at 4pm
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NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.




the next one is 4pm
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1066. Torgen
Quoting Hurricanes101:


there is NO 2pm advisory


That's why he will be the only one to post it! :D
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


there is NO 2pm advisory
Quoting MrstormX:


Thats what you think
I know I know, I fixed it already. Lol.
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I think anybody from Northern Mexico to Central Louisiana now has to watch this...The most important thing is that the models are now showing the trough being stronger and picking the system up....Even the GFDl although it builds the ridge in quickly thereafter still shows a Northern move...Even the HWRF has shifted Northward also...This could make Landfall in any city between Mexico and Louisiana with that trough...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok. I'll be the only one to post the 2PM advisory.


....
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok. I'll be the only one to post the 2PM advisory.


there is NO 2pm advisory
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My bad. There is no 2PM advisory, lol.
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1060. RJT185
Quoting miamiamiga:


If it does refresh the page the first time, then you have to go back and find the post you want to quote and hit quote again. It has always worked for me the second try, if not the first...


It's been doing that for me sporadically. It delays the posting and when the blog moves so fast a lot of the people have moved on. lol
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looks like it will re emerge within an hour
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A few things I don't know

1.When will Alex reach the BoC?

2.Will Alex start to reintensify as soon as it gets over water?

3.how long will Alex stay over water after it gets into the GoM/BoC?

Any awnsers are appreciated!
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1055. Levi32
Quoting neonlazer:
Good answer! I think making predictions is pretty iffy right now lol


Agree.
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1054. Patrap



Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
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Quoting CCkid00:
the rain showing up on radar in Lake Ponchatrain and along the coast of La.....is that from Alex?


Those are from the seabreeze front and the stuff offshore is from Alex
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Alex now re-emerging into the Gulf of Mexico...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.