Tropical Storm Alex's Yucatan Landfall

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:52 AM GMT on June 27, 2010

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Update: Here's the 500AM EDT radar image from Belize. Alex's eye is roughly 150 km NW of the radar.


This Animated loop shows the development of Alex's eye. The page for Belize's radar is here.

The 500AM EDT forecast is a bit different than the previous forecast. Essentially, it looks like the area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will weaken due to a trough over the eastern US. This will weaken the steering currents and slow's Alex's motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The reduced storm motion will give Alex more time to intensify in a a warm SST/weak shear environment. The current forecast calls for Alex to become a category 2 storm before making landfall north of Tampico, MX late Wed. night/early Thursday morning.

The $64,000 question is "Will the ridge continue to weaken, allowing Alex to move north and continue intensification?" The 12Z global model runs will have more accurate forecasts than the the 6Z runs thanks to the presence of radiosonde data, so hopefully they'll provide an answer. It's still my opinion that Alex will not directly impact the oil spill recovery efforts, but I can't say that the chances of it doing so are getting smaller now.

This is Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff during the late shift. Tropical Storm Alex is currently moving over the Yucatan peninsula. Alex's intensity has dropped to 50 knots in the latest advisory with further weakening expected as the storm moves over land. After Alex moves into the Gulf of Mexico, intensification is expected because of warm sea-surface temperatures and weak vertical wind shear. An area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will guide Alex into a WNW-NW track. The 200AM EDT forecast calls for Alex to intensify into a category 1 hurricane before making landfall just north of Tampico, MX.

In my judgement, the chances of Alex moving northwards and directly interfering with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts are small and getting smaller with time. I agree with Jeff's assessment that Alex will generate 2+ foot swells that would interfere with skimming operations

Currently, the main threat from Alex is flooding due to heavy rains. NHC is forecasting rainfall amounts from 4 to 8 inches with higher amounts over mountainous terrain, causing flooding and possibly mudslides.


Fig. 1Forecast of 24-hour accumulated precipitation from TS Alex.

Alex's Belizean Landfall
Jeff saved this radar image of Alex making landfall.

Fig. 2Base reflectivity at 2315Z 26 June 2010 at Philip Goldson Airport

There isn't much storm structure apparent in the reflectivity data, just widespread areas of showers. Data from a nearby PWS shows that the peak windspeed was 43 mph. You can clearly see the circulation move past the station with changes in the wind direction and speed. You can also see when the rainbands passed over the station.

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is still out there, but it's not looking healthy. It's currently in an area unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis and NHC thinks it has a 0% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next two days. Current forecast models have 94L moving northwards and making a pass by Bermuda.

If things don't change significantly, Jeff is thinking about taking Sunday off. However, rest assured that if Alex starts charging towards the US, Jeff or I will put up a new entry. In any event, I'm planning on posting an update sometime late Sunday evening.

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This storm should be tooken seriously,a hurricane in june is rare enough...a Major hurricane in june,well.

I wasn't even alive then.
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the models will love the jets data.....
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Quoting Tazmanian:



now that was not nic
Don't worry about it. It's pretty funny.
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1149. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:
am being a wishcaster and saying any ch of this becomeing a cat 4 or 5 storm overe the gulf??


If Alex happens to take the GFS/CMC track east of Corpus Christi, then it could potentially rival Audrey for the strongest June storm ever, though it would be close because the end of the month would be near landfall time. That much time over water with a northern track like that, coupled with slow movement due to weaker steering currents, could allow this one to blow.
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Quoting watchingnva:
i just gotta know...who all in here is from texas....if you are ....say so...


Me....Beaumont
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Quoting errantlythought:
Also, that seabreeze front isnt a normal seabreeze. For one, it's too early in the afternoon, and I can feel the damn thing. (Though according to the WUgauge the pressure has risen over the past few min)

All over that, I see. Well done.
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Galleria, Houston here
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I'm from Klein TX (~20 mi NNW of Houston) and watching this system with great care and curiosity.
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Quoting StormW:


Good afternoon.
hey storm looks like its almost time for alex to have his grand entrance for the party
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G IV plane goes out tomorrow I think, that information will be very helpful
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am being a wishcaster and saying any ch of this becomeing a cat 4 or 5 storm overe the gulf??


Maybe momentarily, but I dont think the TCHP of the gulf could support a major for very long. Maybe a 3, but that'd be the extreme upper end, I think.
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1139. Patrap
G-4 to Fly


000
NOUS42 KNHC 271500 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 27 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-027 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALEX
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 29/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0601A ALEX
C. 28/1730Z..........CORRECTED
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
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Quoting watchingnva:
i just gotta know...who all in here is from texas....if you are ....say so...


I live in Port Isabel, just across the causeway from South Padre Island.
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Quoting ATL:

Remember, if it ain't a U.S. major landfall we don't want to hear from ya ;)
LMAO!
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Hi smmcdavid!! Been a long time!

Cane.. I don't like your track... sorry ;)
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Afternon, I see the GFDL and HWRF shifted north (again).. Before I make a new forecast map, I will wait for the EURO :)
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1132. CCkid00
sorry for all the questions....just learning.....what are the ensemble models? do they belong basically to the GFS? i'm assuming so since the GFS runs right up the middle of them. also, what kind of accuracy does the NHC have with landfall forecasts, this far out? they basically missed it with Katrina....right up to near landfall. we all kept watching the TV and they kept waiting for the turn (the one that didn't happen until under La....that they expected to happen under the Florida panhandle).
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Quoting NOSinger:
Miami Hurricane.....you posted the CMC a little while ago. Is that a reliable model? That track takes it WAY more north than the other models.....And like you said...A whole lotta time in the GULF!!
Ehhh... I don't know if it is "reliable" model but is definitely worth paying attention to. I do have to say this though, IF the ECMWF shows the same thing we have to watch Alex VERY closely.
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storm

cchs was a great bloger anything happen to this person ?
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Quoting ATL:

Remember, if it ain't a U.S. major landfall we don't want to hear from ya ;)



now that was not nic
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sadly, with that time-frame Alex could easily become a major hurricane. Wouldn't that be something? Our "A" storm is a major hurricane.


Even 2005 didn't have that! :o

This season is reminding me of 2004, when Alex was a category three hurricane. The first storm didn't form until July 31st though.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


he knows, he is making fun of MH09 because of what he said earlier lol




oh.....
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Quoting watchingnva:
im just curious....who all from texas calling for a texas landfall...just trying to understand things...lol


doesn't matter, fact remains landfall in Texas is still definitely a possibility
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1123. ATL
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL!!!

Remember, if it ain't a U.S. major landfall we don't want to hear from ya ;)
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am being a wishcaster and saying any ch of this becomeing a cat 4 or 5 storm overe the gulf??
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Part of the Circulation is now over the Laguna de Terminos.
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I'm from Texas, but I'm not calling for a landfall anywhere specific. I don't know more than anyone else where this thing is gonna go. :)
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Not digging the model adjustmenst. GFS had huge change as well did the ensembles. Other models have that little notch in them giving a hint that a more northly track could actually accur. Still holding on that this thing goes into Mexico so it cant turn into a major hurricane or even a legit hurricane. Whew not liking that shift this late in the game.
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Miami Hurricane.....you posted the CMC a little while ago. Is that a reliable model? That track takes it WAY more north than the other models.....And like you said...A whole lotta time in the GULF!!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



there is no 2pm update


he knows, he is making fun of MH09 because of what he said earlier lol
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Quoting MrstormX:


It would be quite something... Although the last Alex to occur (2004) was major as well.
That was in July/August. This one is in June.
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im just curious....who all from texas calling for a texas landfall...just trying to understand things...lol
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Quoting Torgen:
It's about time for the MiamiHurricanes09 2pm update!

(You owe us one now, MH09. Don't forget to type it in all caps!)

:)



there is no 2pm update
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Quoting Torgen:
It's about time for the MiamiHurricanes09 2pm update!

(You owe us one now, MH09. Don't forget to type it in all caps!)

:)
LOL!!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sadly, with that time-frame Alex could easily become a major hurricane. Wouldn't that be something? Our "A" storm is a major hurricane.


It would be quite something... Although the last Alex to occur (2004) was major as well.
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nice looking wave in the catl 1200 miles ese of the winward islands
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1110. Torgen
It's about time for the MiamiHurricanes09 2pm update!

(You owe us one now, MH09. Don't forget to type it in all caps!)

:)
Member Since: June 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
Quoting Seflhurricane:
thats the worst case scenario this thing is going to explode
Indeed.
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1108. Patrap




NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

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Quoting Seflhurricane:
thats the worst case scenario this thing is going to explode


Which is likely to happen.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting Hurricanes101:
NHCs forecast track doesn't have landfall until Thursday morning in northern Mexico; if its further north you are talking Friday

So Alex has a good 3-5 days over the Gulf
Sadly, with that time-frame Alex could easily become a major hurricane. Wouldn't that be something? Our "A" storm is a major hurricane.
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1105. scott39
Hello, Could somebody post the number chart that is used for direction and where Alex is on that?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
NHCs forecast track doesn't have landfall until Thursday morning in northern Mexico; if its further north you are talking Friday

So Alex has a good 3-5 days over the Gulf
thats the worst case scenario this thing is going to explode
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NHCs forecast track doesn't have landfall until Thursday morning in northern Mexico; if its further north you are talking Friday

So Alex has a good 3-5 days over the Gulf
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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