Tropical Storm Alex's Yucatan Landfall

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:52 AM GMT on June 27, 2010

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Update: Here's the 500AM EDT radar image from Belize. Alex's eye is roughly 150 km NW of the radar.


This Animated loop shows the development of Alex's eye. The page for Belize's radar is here.

The 500AM EDT forecast is a bit different than the previous forecast. Essentially, it looks like the area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will weaken due to a trough over the eastern US. This will weaken the steering currents and slow's Alex's motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The reduced storm motion will give Alex more time to intensify in a a warm SST/weak shear environment. The current forecast calls for Alex to become a category 2 storm before making landfall north of Tampico, MX late Wed. night/early Thursday morning.

The $64,000 question is "Will the ridge continue to weaken, allowing Alex to move north and continue intensification?" The 12Z global model runs will have more accurate forecasts than the the 6Z runs thanks to the presence of radiosonde data, so hopefully they'll provide an answer. It's still my opinion that Alex will not directly impact the oil spill recovery efforts, but I can't say that the chances of it doing so are getting smaller now.

This is Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff during the late shift. Tropical Storm Alex is currently moving over the Yucatan peninsula. Alex's intensity has dropped to 50 knots in the latest advisory with further weakening expected as the storm moves over land. After Alex moves into the Gulf of Mexico, intensification is expected because of warm sea-surface temperatures and weak vertical wind shear. An area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will guide Alex into a WNW-NW track. The 200AM EDT forecast calls for Alex to intensify into a category 1 hurricane before making landfall just north of Tampico, MX.

In my judgement, the chances of Alex moving northwards and directly interfering with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts are small and getting smaller with time. I agree with Jeff's assessment that Alex will generate 2+ foot swells that would interfere with skimming operations

Currently, the main threat from Alex is flooding due to heavy rains. NHC is forecasting rainfall amounts from 4 to 8 inches with higher amounts over mountainous terrain, causing flooding and possibly mudslides.


Fig. 1Forecast of 24-hour accumulated precipitation from TS Alex.

Alex's Belizean Landfall
Jeff saved this radar image of Alex making landfall.

Fig. 2Base reflectivity at 2315Z 26 June 2010 at Philip Goldson Airport

There isn't much storm structure apparent in the reflectivity data, just widespread areas of showers. Data from a nearby PWS shows that the peak windspeed was 43 mph. You can clearly see the circulation move past the station with changes in the wind direction and speed. You can also see when the rainbands passed over the station.

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is still out there, but it's not looking healthy. It's currently in an area unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis and NHC thinks it has a 0% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next two days. Current forecast models have 94L moving northwards and making a pass by Bermuda.

If things don't change significantly, Jeff is thinking about taking Sunday off. However, rest assured that if Alex starts charging towards the US, Jeff or I will put up a new entry. In any event, I'm planning on posting an update sometime late Sunday evening.

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NHC needs to really look at this loop that i have been playing all nite and Change the dang forecast track.....I really don't understand why they are disregarding models that have performed very well in the past......YA HERE COMES A GEEEEESSSSHHHHH!

NHC LOOK AT THE FREAKING TROUGH AND HOW DEEP AND FAR SOUTH IT ALREADY IS! MAJOR HURRICANE COMING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST! SORRY ALL! And i don't mean to be harsh to the NHC folks that work really hard but, I think you have really blew this forecast track!

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The 4am advisory is very puzzling on a couple of fronts. Firstly it speaks of Alex looking more like a hurricane than a TS with improved structure and so on and then does not increase its intensity, rather downgrades it to a 35kt storm.
Secondly, it finally speaks of not only the possibility but almost the probability of a MUCH more northern track.

Its just as well it is 4am or this blog would be going into panic!
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Quoting xcool:
BYE I'M OUT


Night xcool.
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Quoting btwntx08:
well im going now good night all


Night BT. Get sleep you not out of the woods yet.
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BYE I'M OUT
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol yeah forecast track is further north but still into Mexico.


Oh ok. Thanks. :)
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Quoting Levi32:


Well I'm still edgy about Louisiana. I don't quite see it getting that far east, but it wouldn't hurt to keep an eye on it if these northerly model forecasts end up having merit. Like the NHC said, one more model cycle would be nice to see if this is still a solid trend on the GFS and CMC.


GFS should be shortly. Oh and did anyone notice the ecm sending like 3 storms to Tx? Who'd we tick off in Europe? Wow! And its only just begun.
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Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Did he still say Mexico? I kinda got stuck on TX/LA


Lol yeah forecast track is further north but still into Mexico.
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cmc blow out gfdl & hwrf THAT SAD,,,
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Quoting MississippiWx:


What is amazing is that even LOUISIANA is in the picture again. I have to agree that the flow across the Northern US has been very progressive for a while.

Btwntx08- I think you owe me crow from what I said earlier. I said I would never say "never", but that I was almost certain this thing wouldn't get into TX. It still might not, but just the fact that the NHC said what they said blows my mind...


Well I'm still edgy about Louisiana. I don't quite see it getting that far east, but it wouldn't hurt to keep an eye on it if these northerly model forecasts end up having merit. Like the NHC said, one more model cycle would be nice to see if this is still a solid trend on the GFS and CMC.
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NHC who? EURO will win, yet again. CMC? Plz.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Been saying it all nite....ding ding! Alex is heading to the Texas / Louisiana Line. A major shift in the forecast track will be coming on the next Advisory. Checkout my Blog for my thoughts! To for some shuteye!
I hope thats as far E as it gets!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6744


MORE TO RIGTH
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Quoting Levi32:


The whole dang thing is odd, but that's why I like Stewart, he's usually up-front about things. I'm not surprised he's saying a major hurricane is possible if it gets more time over water due to a more northerly track. His wording suggests a menacing storm like the CMC shows if this peels off towards Texas and has yet more time over water. I think Cat 2 before landfall in Mexico with this forecast track is very reasonable. That was my forecast this morning as well.


Did he still say Mexico? I kinda got stuck on TX/LA
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TampaSpin .YEP
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Morning folks - it's unbelieveable, but Alex over land looks much better than Alex did over water..
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Quoting Levi32:
This is exactly why I was not willing to shut the door on a Texas landfall, despite my forecast for a landfall in northern Mexico. The door is still very much open for this possibility. We will have to see.


What is amazing is that even LOUISIANA is in the picture again. I have to agree that the flow across the Northern US has been very progressive for a while.

Btwntx08- I think you owe me crow from what I said earlier. I said I would never say "never", but that I was almost certain this thing wouldn't get into TX. It still might not, but just the fact that the NHC said what they said blows my mind...
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Been saying it all nite....ding ding! Alex is heading to the Texas / Louisiana Line. A major shift in the forecast track will be coming on the next Advisory. Checkout my Blog for my thoughts! To for some shuteye!
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Quoting Levi32:
This is exactly why I was not willing to shut the door on a Texas landfall, despite my forecast for a landfall in northern Mexico. The door is still very much open for this possibility. We will have to see.


Western La here...I may not be so safe afterall! wow
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1342
Quoting xcool:
FROM TX TO SW LA KEEP EYE ON HIM
I say everybody better keep an eye on this potiential beast! Unfourtunately its only JUNE 27TH!!!!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6744
Quoting atmoaggie:
That's an odd collection of words to see in an advisory...


The whole dang thing is odd, but that's why I like Stewart, he's usually up-front about things. I'm not surprised he's saying a major hurricane is possible if it gets more time over water due to a more northerly track. His wording suggests a menacing storm like the CMC shows if this peels off towards Texas and has yet more time over water. I think Cat 2 before landfall in Mexico with this forecast track is very reasonable. That was my forecast this morning as well.
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FROM TX TO SW LA KEEP EYE ON HIM
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ah wait before I go, check this out, towards the SE? O.o?
LinkI dont know what to think of 94L so I wont think anything.
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Quoting Levi32:
Concerning me that the NHC is even considering the GFS/Canadian solutions.


Me too.
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That intern is earning his travel expenses...
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This is exactly why I was not willing to shut the door on a Texas landfall, despite my forecast for a landfall in northern Mexico. The door is still very much open for this possibility. We will have to see.
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Quoting Levi32:
...AND HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
That's an odd collection of words to see in an advisory...
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Quoting Levi32:


Agree....the most enlightening and concerning one I have read so far.


Holy crap...I never saw that one coming...
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Quoting Levi32:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 270857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

RATHER THAN BECOMING DISORGANIZED AFTER MOVING INLAND...RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS ACTUALLY BECOME MUCH BETTER
DEFINED. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN BELIZE RADAR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF -80C AND COLDER TOPS
ENCIRCLING THE RADAR CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICTIONS OF
ALEX LOOKS MORE LIKE A HURRICANE THAN A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.


THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY
THING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK.
ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY
CANADA TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME LEAVING
A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
THIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ALEX TO SLOW DOWN AND
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
TAKING ALEX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFDL...
HWRF...UKMET...AND GFS-PARALLEL MODELS MOVE ALEX WESTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY
HANDLE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCE A STRONGER...MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
...AND SLOWER PATTERN. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO
CONFIRM THAT TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.


BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ALEX WHILE IT IS HAS BEEN
OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE 5 KT OR
LESS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SSTS OF 28C AND WARMER
EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK...THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD
THAT ALEX COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE SHIPS AND DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY
MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.


Finally! Oh wait. That sux. Oh geeze. I need alka selzer. Be right back.
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NHC GO WHAT CMC WOW
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Quoting Levi32:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 270857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

RATHER THAN BECOMING DISORGANIZED AFTER MOVING INLAND...RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS ACTUALLY BECOME MUCH BETTER
DEFINED. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN BELIZE RADAR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF -80C AND COLDER TOPS
ENCIRCLING THE RADAR CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICTIONS OF
ALEX LOOKS MORE LIKE A HURRICANE THAN A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.


THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY
THING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK.
ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY
CANADA TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME LEAVING
A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
THIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ALEX TO SLOW DOWN AND
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
TAKING ALEX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFDL...
HWRF...UKMET...AND GFS-PARALLEL MODELS MOVE ALEX WESTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY
HANDLE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCE A STRONGER...MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
...AND SLOWER PATTERN. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO
CONFIRM THAT TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.


BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ALEX WHILE IT IS HAS BEEN
OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE 5 KT OR
LESS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SSTS OF 28C AND WARMER
EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK...THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD
THAT ALEX COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE SHIPS AND DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY
MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
OH CRAP!!!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6744
Quoting MississippiWx:
The new discussion is unbelievable!


Agree....the most enlightening and concerning one I have read so far.
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Concerning me that the NHC is even considering the GFS/Canadian solutions.
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The new discussion is unbelievable!
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ok, time for bed for me, I'm confusing people with other people and posting wrong links and images, I'm definitely half asleep, so good night/morning all!
XD
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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 18.3N 89.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 19.1N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 28/0600Z 20.2N 91.9W 40 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.9N 92.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 93.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 22.6N 95.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 23.2N 97.4W 85 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 99.7W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NHC brings it to 100 MPH at landfall...
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 270857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

RATHER THAN BECOMING DISORGANIZED AFTER MOVING INLAND...RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS ACTUALLY BECOME MUCH BETTER
DEFINED. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN BELIZE RADAR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF -80C AND COLDER TOPS
ENCIRCLING THE RADAR CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICTIONS OF
ALEX LOOKS MORE LIKE A HURRICANE THAN A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.


THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY
THING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK.
ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY
CANADA TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME LEAVING
A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
THIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ALEX TO SLOW DOWN AND
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
TAKING ALEX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFDL...
HWRF...UKMET...AND GFS-PARALLEL MODELS MOVE ALEX WESTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY
HANDLE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCE A STRONGER...MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
...AND SLOWER PATTERN. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION
...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO
CONFIRM THAT TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.


BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ALEX WHILE IT IS HAS BEEN
OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE 5 KT OR
LESS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SSTS OF 28C AND WARMER
EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK...THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD
THAT ALEX COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE SHIPS AND DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY
MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 270858
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...ALEX STILL A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 89.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND BELIZE RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...ACCOMPANIED
BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND EMERGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE OVER LAND...AND ALEX COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY...WHEN ALEX WILL BE BACK OVER WARM WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OFF
THE COASTS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


Lol. That was helpful. :)
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Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
94L is going under the radar thanks to Alex, there seems to be a new center trying to form.
All of the vorticity is to the NE of PR, but there is zero convection over there and the strongest shear from the ULL.

Now check out the convergence and divergence



New center seems to want to form to the east of the islands where the Dvorak image I posted earlier showed the center
94L is a sneaky one XD
Or maybe it will dissipate after failing to form a new center :P
LOL
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Thanks DRC.
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:0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 270858
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...ALEX STILL A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 89.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND BELIZE RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...ACCOMPANIED
BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND EMERGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE OVER LAND...AND ALEX COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY...WHEN ALEX WILL BE BACK OVER WARM WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OFF
THE COASTS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
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Good morning. Wind is dying down here in Corozal, Belize. It had been blowing steadily 30-45 kts since about 7PM. Alex has definitely passed us. Rain wasn't as bad as expected.
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Quoting JLPR2:
New Blog!
Thanks for this unexpected update DR. M! ^^
Its actually Dr. C...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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