Tropical Storm Alex's Yucatan Landfall

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:52 AM GMT on June 27, 2010

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Update: Here's the 500AM EDT radar image from Belize. Alex's eye is roughly 150 km NW of the radar.


This Animated loop shows the development of Alex's eye. The page for Belize's radar is here.

The 500AM EDT forecast is a bit different than the previous forecast. Essentially, it looks like the area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will weaken due to a trough over the eastern US. This will weaken the steering currents and slow's Alex's motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The reduced storm motion will give Alex more time to intensify in a a warm SST/weak shear environment. The current forecast calls for Alex to become a category 2 storm before making landfall north of Tampico, MX late Wed. night/early Thursday morning.

The $64,000 question is "Will the ridge continue to weaken, allowing Alex to move north and continue intensification?" The 12Z global model runs will have more accurate forecasts than the the 6Z runs thanks to the presence of radiosonde data, so hopefully they'll provide an answer. It's still my opinion that Alex will not directly impact the oil spill recovery efforts, but I can't say that the chances of it doing so are getting smaller now.

This is Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff during the late shift. Tropical Storm Alex is currently moving over the Yucatan peninsula. Alex's intensity has dropped to 50 knots in the latest advisory with further weakening expected as the storm moves over land. After Alex moves into the Gulf of Mexico, intensification is expected because of warm sea-surface temperatures and weak vertical wind shear. An area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will guide Alex into a WNW-NW track. The 200AM EDT forecast calls for Alex to intensify into a category 1 hurricane before making landfall just north of Tampico, MX.

In my judgement, the chances of Alex moving northwards and directly interfering with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts are small and getting smaller with time. I agree with Jeff's assessment that Alex will generate 2+ foot swells that would interfere with skimming operations

Currently, the main threat from Alex is flooding due to heavy rains. NHC is forecasting rainfall amounts from 4 to 8 inches with higher amounts over mountainous terrain, causing flooding and possibly mudslides.


Fig. 1Forecast of 24-hour accumulated precipitation from TS Alex.

Alex's Belizean Landfall
Jeff saved this radar image of Alex making landfall.

Fig. 2Base reflectivity at 2315Z 26 June 2010 at Philip Goldson Airport

There isn't much storm structure apparent in the reflectivity data, just widespread areas of showers. Data from a nearby PWS shows that the peak windspeed was 43 mph. You can clearly see the circulation move past the station with changes in the wind direction and speed. You can also see when the rainbands passed over the station.

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is still out there, but it's not looking healthy. It's currently in an area unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis and NHC thinks it has a 0% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next two days. Current forecast models have 94L moving northwards and making a pass by Bermuda.

If things don't change significantly, Jeff is thinking about taking Sunday off. However, rest assured that if Alex starts charging towards the US, Jeff or I will put up a new entry. In any event, I'm planning on posting an update sometime late Sunday evening.

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Quoting MZV:
The ultimate in land-based intensifying storms. Tropical storm Erin over Oklahoma:



forgot about that one

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Quoting Hurricane1956:
Good morning! everybody,just a question to the experts,if the Rigge to the North erodes,there is a posibility of Alex moving N-NE to the Florida coast,and I'm not from that area! just wondering if this could be possible?,thanks!!
The ridge to the north will be weakened by a trough over by the central plains. After the trough passes, the ridge will want to re-strengthen.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
As expected. Just checked out water vapor, expect a couple shifts right.


Great observation

Link
Member Since: June 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
Quoting will45:
I just opened my Chrome and i see the same prob. Never noticed it before. Dont know if that can be fixed or not.


Apparently it has something to do with the way the blog is set up. The other browsers automatically correct for it, but Chrome does not. When my lazy boy gets up I'll ask him again - LOL!!
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Quoting hydrus:
It has been over land longer than a couple of hours.:)

Well that's even more impressive. Lol.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
You don't :( I was having the same problem with chrome and safari... I just use firefox when I'm going to post a link or an image.


The developers at Wunderground apparently only test this site on Firefox and Explorer. I've noticed glitches in the past as well on Safari, Opera and Chrome.
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Quoting MZV:
The ultimate in land-based intensifying storms. Tropical storm Erin over Oklahma:



Ah, that's the storm I was thinking of. Thanks MZV. :)
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Good morning! everybody,just a question to the experts,if the Rigge to the North erodes,there is a posibility of Alex moving N-NE to the Florida coast,and I'm not from that area! just wondering if this could be possible?,thanks!!
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Good Morning StormW

So what did you tell Admiral Allen when he called and said he couldn't sleep.
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Everyone keeps saying the GFS is on drugs. What has changed with the GFS as in years past. Models are mostly only as good as the Info put into them as they spit out a result from that info.
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Okay I am from Corpus, seriously want nothing to do with Alex, Hurricane Celia was a nightmare, I don't care to repeat .



Quoting

whipster:

I'll take Corpus Christi for 500, Alex!
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Looking at some microwave images of alex iam pretty amazed how the overall structure has improved over land. Unfortunatley conditions appear ideal for a major cane in the gomex.

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Quoting StormW:
Question, I switched to Google Chrome, now where the comments box is for this page, The tabs for link and image are missing...how do I fix that?
I just opened my Chrome and i see the same prob. Never noticed it before. Dont know if that can be fixed or not.
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There was hurricane or TS not to long ago that, after landfall, degraded to a depression and then re-strengthened to a TS over OK briefly. I can't remember which storm that was though. Dr. Masters even had a post about how that can happen sometimes.
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Quoting StormW:
Models are going to shift right.
As expected. Just checked out water vapor, expect a couple shifts right.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
384. MZV
The ultimate in land-based intensifying storms. Tropical storm Erin over Oklahoma:

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Quoting reedzone:
Heading to church, I'm expecting Alex to start emerging back over the waters when I get back around 1-2 p.m.
That's a long service
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Quoting StormW:
Question, I switched to Google Chrome, now where the comments box is for this page, The tabs for link and image are missing...how do I fix that?


My son gave me some long winded technical answer about that, which I did not completely understand, but I did get the fact that you can't - LOL!!

Or, at least he can't, maybe someone else on here has figured it out.
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Heading to church, I'm expecting Alex to start emerging back over the waters when I get back around 1-2 p.m.
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Sorry, but Katrina, wilma, and Andrew did not strengthem over S. Florida. Katrina, Wilma and Andrew were strengthening as they came onshore, and didn't degrade quickly (as storms usually don't over the Everglades), but they certainly didn't get stronger as a result of being over the Everglades.
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Evening all, Alex could be a threat to the oil area due to winds and waves.


What effect would rainfall have on the oil area?
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Just wait until Monday morning, all the models will be north ... Alex headed toward BP makes a great story for Monday morning ... I guarantee CNN, Fox, etc. already have the story written.
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376. hercj
Quoting TampaSpin:


Thank you! I Guess!

Hey Spin we finally win one.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Good morning.

Alex looks pretty dang good for a tropical storm that has been inland for a couple hours.
It has been over land longer than a couple of hours.:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22302
Quoting StormW:
Question, I switched to Google Chrome, now where the comments box is for this page, The tabs for link and image are missing...how do I fix that?


Go back to FireFox. Lol
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Quoting StormW:
Question, I switched to Google Chrome, now where the comments box is for this page, The tabs for link and image are missing...how do I fix that?
You don't :( I was having the same problem with chrome and safari... I just use firefox when I'm going to post a link or an image.
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Quoting StormW:
Models are going to shift right.


Thank you! I Guess!
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Wilma strengthened over Florida


Fay rapidly intensified and almost became a Hurricane over Florida, even formed an eye.
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I'm looking forward to the 11am advisory.
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368. hercj
Senior, you had a chance to look at Africa this morning?
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Quoting StormW:
.
Good morning Storm. Is Alex going to have a better chance of a U.S. landfall looking at the latest models and reports?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22302
365. jpsb
Quoting MSweatherguy:
Katrina strengthened over S florida
I remember watching J Cantory reporting from S Fla, seems like a really strong storm, he commented the same, something like "this is the strongest cat 1 I've ever seen".
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364. hercj
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Wilma strengthened over Florida

So did Andrew
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Good morning.

Alex looks pretty dang good for a tropical storm that has been inland for a couple hours.
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I agree with Storm, the models will shift east some and the nhc is already hinting toward that. How much is yet to be determined, but I do know that once the G-IV data goes into the models they always tighten up. We will have a much better picture by this evening.
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Y'all don't confuse Wilma with Fay, please...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting StormW:
http://www.weathertap.com/hub/SAT_GUL_IR4ENH_ANI.gif



That's a subscription-based link, right? Can't see it.
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Katrina strengthened over S florida
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Quoting tropicaltank:
I thing I remember a storm that did actually intensify over land. Do you recall such a storm?
Wilma strengthened over Florida
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Thankfully though I don't see a Northwest movement yet.


I believe once Alex starts cranking he will really start to feel the weekness when back over the waters of the BOC
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353. jpsb
Quoting StormW:


Good morning!
Morning Storm, hey quick question. I used to use water vapor to try an see where a TC was going. That was 50-50 at best. How come water vapor is not a much better predictor of motion for a TC? Is water vapor just showing motion at some particular alt but steering is occurring at another alt? thx.
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There is nothing "cool" about GOM waters, anywhere.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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