Caribbean disturbance struggling

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2005

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The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Jamaica, is struggling this morning. The amount of deep convection has decreased considerably since yesterday afternoon, and appears in small irregular patches around the weak circulation center. A reconnaissance airplane was scheduled to visit the area today but was cancelled. However, the convection has made a bit of a comeback since 2am EDT when there was almost none. The environment for development still seems fair to good. Wind shear over the disturbance remains in the 5 - 10 knot range, which is in the slightly to moderately favorable range for tropical storm development. This wind shear is forecast to decrease the next two days, and I still expect we will see this system become Tropical Depression 19 by Friday.

The disturbance has speeded up its forward motion to about 13 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down over the next few days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday night. The BAMM and GFS models both forecast that the system will then cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enter the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This seems reasonable, given the strong ridge of high pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Early run of the BAMM model takes the Caribbean disturbance into the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL model didn't do too well--it takes the disturbance the wrong way!

Africa westward
The ITCZ is active in the region extending from the African coast westwards for 1000 miles. Some of the global computer models are forecasting that a tropical storm will develop along this area later this week. There are currently no suspect areas to focus on, though.

Hawaii and Baja
Hawaii is watching Tropical Storm Kenneth, which is expected to pass though the Islands Friday and Saturday. Kenneth should only be a tropical depression by then, but may bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding to the islands. Tropical depressions that have passed though the islands in previous years have caused serious flooding problems.

The Baja Peninsula is watching newly-formed Tropical Depression 15E, which may threaten the Baja Peninsula as a tropical storm by Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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292. Pensacola21
8:09 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
New blog from Dr Masters
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
291. tornadoty
8:07 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Dr. Masters has a new post.
290. caneman
8:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
any chance this will develop and move up the east coast of Florida. I'm talking about blob/TS Stan.
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 98
289. Scotth
7:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Wow! Where'd everybody go? Was it something I said? Maybe I was too harsh......May I please have a link? :o)
Member Since: August 4, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
288. Scotth
7:48 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Links people!! I need links!!!
Member Since: August 4, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
287. leftyy420
7:38 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
the blob iz just rapidly getting it together. she will def be a depression in the next 6-12 hrs. low level circulation is so strpng, great outflow and looks like a anti-cyclone is siting right over it. with those sst rapid development is likley
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
286. leftyy420
7:33 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
thats the ull that was preventing the carribean blob from forming. its being pulled north by the front that just swept down from canada
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
285. AySz88
7:31 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
What's that vortex moving across Florida (apparently shearing the remnants of Rita)? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
284. leftyy420
7:31 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
yeah the bamm is good early on but not good with strong systems.

next its 1 model. a model will not tell u the exact track but a few models togetehr will give u a consencus and thats more accuarte. the nogapps takes the system north closer to cuba for instance.

next model tuns be out around 730pm
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
283. leftyy420
7:28 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
no i am left handed actually i can use both but i used to play football in highschool and was pretty good at it. well i broke my right arm twice and for 2 years practicaly i had a cast on it constantly so people just started calling melefty and it stuck. my wife even calls me lefty lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
282. Pensacola21
7:24 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Yeah, I know, but I thought the bamm was fairly good early on... Thanks Left, BTW, are you left handed or is that from the song 'Poncho and Lefty'? lol

Does anyone know when the new model runs come out?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
281. leftyy420
7:21 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
no, by 48 hrs if u belive the shipsmodel the storm will be to strong for the bam to get a hold of and that right around the time the bamm veres her hard left. i am not going to speculate on track as its to early and no models have intialised her good or picked up on the system. we just need to wait for the models so we can base a track on model concensus. remebr u don;t follow just one model, u take the concensus of a few models. so right now i wouldn't bnelive any model.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
280. Pensacola21
7:21 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
I know everything is crazy out there, I'm just tryin to get a small bit of peace of mind =)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
279. Pensacola21
7:19 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Just estimated... it shouldn't go North??
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
278. Pensacola21
7:19 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
You think the Bamm is a good landfall pred.? Lefty
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
277. leftyy420
7:14 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
ok guys i am back. i had to yell at the bank for a few and they love to put u on hold

deepconvection is now blowing up right over the center of ther low. in vis sat imagery a noticible low level circulation has formed and appears tobe centered right under the deepest convection. t-numbers still in the low 1's for an average but with all that said, it appears she is rapidly getting orginised. i expect her to be a td in 6-12 hrs. the nhc might wait till tomm morning's recon to classify her but she will defenitely be a depression with in 24 hrs and i feel 6-12 is a safe bet
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
276. kerigangirl
7:08 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
oops my mistake - ditsy brown i guess. I see where u said Gulf Shores not GP.
275. kerigangirl
7:06 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
herewegoagain it's trying it's darndest to do something... you are right, hopefully runs out of room. hope all is well with you in GP. (relatively speaking)
274. stormydee
7:04 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
21 - your in tune also (must be a wleding aura), so tell ME what those winning #'s are.....LMAO...okay, really gone now!
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
273. Pensacola21
7:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Bye Stormy..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
272. herewegoagain
7:00 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Kerrigangirl: The low heading toward NO just produced a nasty squall here in Gulf Shores. Glad it doesn't have a lot of time or room to grow before it hits landfall!
271. stormydee
7:00 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
well, going for the day...everyone be safe and watch out for orange blobs! LOL talk to u tomorrow! :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
270. kerigangirl
7:00 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Thanks Doc!!! I feel vindicated for pointing out 28.5N 87.5W... Just couldn't tell it was drifting SSW.
269. Pensacola21
6:59 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Bye weatherspirit, you are about to get off of work huh Stormy... I'm jealous, =( an hour behind you... I wanna go home!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
268. stormydee
6:59 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
oh, hes gone now...must be checking out the volcano...lol :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
267. weatherspirit
6:58 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
well, time to go to work, get off at 1:00am so see ya then!
265. Pensacola21
6:57 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
LOL that fly will NOT leave... Thats his house
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
264. stormydee
6:57 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Skyepony - close enough to Rockledge, 20 min north...been watching these clouds build all afternoon, probably gonna be another booming night like last night was...
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
263. Skyepony (Mod)
6:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Doc thanks for your reply lastnight. I enjoy your elegent observation on the weather. Litt'ins up I'm out
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36063
262. stormydee
6:55 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
21 Link its the fly, try to catch it...lol :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
261. Skyepony (Mod)
6:53 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
houstonian ~ we all mostly get water in alot of FL cause the citys water is pretty clorinated & generally not tasty. That's if ya have it, anyone in county has wells, mostly sulfer water (if ya weren't raised here ya say it smells like rotton eggs), ever arising issues of contamination & it gives some kidney stones.

Stormydee ~ your in rockledge? If so, that made for a heck of a lightnin show!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36063
260. DocNDswamp
6:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Hello all...
Well, I have to admit I felt like I was stepping out on a (broken) limb late last nite when I posted my observations at 5:34am, 6:07am, and 6:47am GMT 9-28-05, announcing our lil Stan-want-to-be was getting ripped by the Florida ULL and less confident it would hold up to become TD19 today.

Seems most meteorologists came to same conclusion this morning. However this disturbance is not giving up - circulation center now positioned near 16N 80W w/ healthy convection refiring. I guess it could become a td late today, but a little more likely on Thu. Don't really see much potential for significant development until it gets past 83W when the upper level environment should become more favorable. Forward motion appears W/WNW. Like it did yesterday, forward speed is herky jerky - sometimes at 8-10mph followed by bursts of 13-15mph.

Also noted lot of energy came off S.A. and appears another td may trying to form near Panama at 8N 79W, which will likely move into Pacific. We'll have to see if that interferes with lil StanBlob's development.

Can't completely ignore the 1008mb low near 28.5N 87.5W, drifting SSW and embedded in that surface trof in the Gulf that divides dry air on it's western side and more humid air to the east. We can only watch and wonder for now.

I'll check back with everyone tonite. I'm heading out to survey damage to our freshwater aquatic habitat, now that Rita's wicked surge is receeding. Hoping for a glimmer of hope, but given what I've seen past storms do, well....
Doc
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4783
258. stormydee
6:49 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
ya, thats right Scott, I remember now...we had an 8 hour delay at the airport so I got to see all the funny things there that i didn't see while we were in that town.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
256. Pensacola21
6:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
LMAO Scotth
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
255. Pensacola21
6:43 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
My boss is not a redneck, he hates rednecks....

All I've ever known are rednecks around here, lol.. My man is a redneck (he's a raccoon hunter, lol, how embarrasing).. We are going to a competition hunt in Aurora, KY in Oct..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
254. WillJax
6:43 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Don't forget to fill your bathtubs as well, great source of water in a time of need.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
253. stormydee
6:43 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
I have fish, so I always have 10 gallons of water for them PLUS I've got a water cooler at home that hold 5 gal bottles and I keep at least 5 stocked...so I shouldn't have any water crisis....coconut, come see me for some water after the next cane if you need some...lol :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
252. Scotth
6:40 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Hey Stormy...Do you know what Interstae runs through Intercourse, PA?....I-69! Intercourse is right next to the towns of Bird-In-Hand, Paradise and Blue Ball. What a bunch of perverts the Amish were!
Member Since: August 4, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
251. weatherwannabe
6:40 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
stormydee, HOWEVER, it wouldn;t be enough for a hurricane to simply reach cat 3+ status AND make landfall. It would have to maintain its intensity AND make landfall at cat 3+. That is the wager.

250. stormydee
6:39 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
mine was born in Ohio, but he's such a redneck, you'd never even know it.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
249. CoconutCreekFLA
6:39 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Houstonian: nothing is wrong with my tap. I do, in fact, fill up milk jugs and the like as well as have sealed bottles for convenience sake (as well as their ability to be thrown in a bag without spilling if I need to get out quick). I also save these bottles after I use them and refill them when a storm is approaching. It was just an expression. In that post I could have just as easily said "batteries" (which, BTW, are safer than candles).

People probably freak out about water b/c they haven't prepared and don't have the empty jugs, bags,trash cans, whatever to put their tap water into or, it's possible, they don't even consider using the tap.
248. weatherwannabe
6:38 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
stormydee 21% - I'd take a bet with those odds any day. Thanks for the info, interesting.
247. Pensacola21
6:36 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Stormy my boss grew up in Detroit
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
246. Pensacola21
6:35 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Loose = lose
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
245. Pensacola21
6:34 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Goodluck Stormy, I would loose my internet, but he doesn't know I'm on here
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
244. stormydee
6:33 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Virginia is for lovers, but Pennylvania is for intercourse....LOL that was stickers at the Harrisburg, PA airport making fun of the Amish town called Intercourse.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
242. stormydee
6:31 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
I grew up in Taylor, just w. of Detriot.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.