Tropical Storm Alex bears down on the Yucatan; extreme heat for Africa and Russia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on June 26, 2010

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The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 is here. Tropical Storm Alex formed last might from an African tropical wave that plowed through the Caribbean this week. Alex's formation location is a typical one for June tropical storms, and the formation date of June 25 is also a fairly typical date for the first storm of the season to form (we average about one June named storm every two years in the Atlantic.) Heavy rainfall will ramp up through the day in Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as Alex continues to intensify, and flooding from these heavy rains will be the main concern from Alex today and Sunday. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorm are growing in intensity and areal coverage at a respectable pace. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over the storm, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is not a problem for Alex. We currently don't have a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm, so we will have to wait until 2pm this afternoon to get an updated estimate of Alex's surface winds. The latest satellite estimates of Alex's winds at 8am EDT put the storm's strongest winds at 40 mph.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the tropics at 9am EDT Saturday 6/26/10. Image credit: GOES Science Project.

Forecast for Alex
As I discussed in last night's post, an examination of the nineteen tropical cyclones that have formed in the Western Caribbean and hit the Yucatan Peninsula over the past twenty years reveals that 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. The ones that died all took a more southerly path across the Yucatan, spending more time over land than Alex will. Alex is large enough and moving far enough north across the Yucatan that passage over the peninsula will not kill it. So, will Alex follow the path climatology says is more likely, and make a second landfall along the Mexican Gulf Coast?


Figure 2. Forecast swath of tropical storm force winds (34 - 63 knots, green colors) and hurricane force winds (yellow and orange colors) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA GFDL team.

The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. Some of yesterday's model runs predicted that this trough would be strong enough to pull Alex northwards through the oil slick region into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. However, the models that were predicting this (the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models) are all backing off on that prediction. It now appears likely that Alex will cross the Yucatan, emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, then slow down as the trough to its north weakens the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. By Tuesday, the influence of the trough will wane, high pressure will build in, and Alex will resume a west-northwest, or possibly a due west or west-southwest motion, towards the Texas/Mexico border region. Based on the current trends in the models, Alex's tropical storm force winds are likely to stay well south of the oil slick region (Figure 2.) I put the odds of Alex bringing tropical storm-force winds to the oil slick region at 10%. The most significant impact Alex will likely have on the oil slick region is to bring 2 - 4 foot swells that may wash oil over some of the containment booms. These swells will reach the oil slick region on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Continued intensification of Alex is likely today, up until landfall. It is a good thing the storm waited until last night to get organized; had it formed a day earlier, it could have easily been a hurricane in the Western Caribbean today. Once Alex emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, it will likely take the storm at least 24 hours to get re-organized, particularly since the total ocean heat content is low for the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf next week, and it appears that Alex will have time to intensify into a hurricane before making its second landfall along the South Texas/northern Mexico coast. Wind shear is expected to be light, and dry air not a significant impediment. Most of the models are calling for landfall on Wednesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this delayed until Thursday. I give Alex a 60% chance of becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) is a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, and is not a threat to develop today. However, by Monday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. None of the models currently develop 94L, but Bermuda should keep and eye on this system, as it will pass very close to the island on Tuesday.

Extreme heat wave in Africa and Asia continues to set all-time high temperature records
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered continues to smash all-time high temperatures Asia and Africa. As I reported earlier this week, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Niger, Pakistan, and Myanmar have all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time over the past six weeks. The remarkable heat continued over Africa and Asia late this week. The Asian portion of Russia recorded its highest temperate in history yesterday, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004. (The record for European Russia is 43.8°C--110.8°F--set on August 6, 1940, at Alexandrov Gaj near the border with Kazakhstan.) Also, on Thursday, Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

We've now had eight countries in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. This includes Asia's hottest temperature of all-time, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the only year which can compare is 2003, when six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this summer's heat wave in Asia and Africa are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The long range outlook shows a continuation of east to southeast winds along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting at least one update on Alex this weekend. My next update will be Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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3749. Torgen
5:18 PM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting xcool:
DUCK MODELS


RABBIT MODELS!
Member Since: June 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
3748. cg2916
11:36 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
3747. A4Guy
11:16 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
good lord...this blog is gonna be nuts today with those comments from the latest HNC discussion.
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3746. stormpetrol
10:28 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Good morning, wow Alex still looks mighty impressive even over land, one serious dude.
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3745. nrtiwlnvragn
10:24 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
NEW BLOG
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3744. IKE
10:17 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
126 hr. GFS(original version)....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3743. natrwalkn
10:12 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Off to bed for a while. I'll check back later this morning for the next update!!
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3742. natrwalkn
10:09 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting IKE:
3736....what does BP do...based off of that?


I suspect they will make some kind of announcement later today.
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3741. IKE
10:07 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
3736....what does BP do...based off of that?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3740. IKE
10:05 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
72 hour GFS(the original).....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3739. WatchingThisOne
9:26 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting natrwalkn:
3736. WHOA!!


"THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY THING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK."

eep!
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1262
3738. aspectre
9:20 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
TropicalStormAlex slogs through the Yucatan
Copy&paste 28.7n88.4w, TAM, MOB, PBI, SAL, 17.5N87.2W, 17.3N87.8W, 17.4N88.1W, 17.7N88.4W, 18.0N89.0W-18.3N89.4W, BZE into the GreatCircleMapper.
The red line shows the heading based on the last two positions. Below the map shows:
TSAlex had a heading of 308.2degrees (west of NW and north of WNW),
traveled a distance of 33miles* (~53kilometres) over three 3hours, and
crossed into the mountains of Belize, Guatamala, and the Yucatan at 11mph (~18kph).
from post2714
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3737. natrwalkn
9:17 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
3736. WHOA!!
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
3736. KoritheMan
9:10 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
HUGE changes:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 270857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

RATHER THAN BECOMING DISORGANIZED AFTER MOVING INLAND...RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS ACTUALLY BECOME MUCH BETTER
DEFINED. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN BELIZE RADAR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF -80C AND COLDER TOPS
ENCIRCLING THE RADAR CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICTIONS OF
ALEX LOOKS MORE LIKE A HURRICANE THAN A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY
THING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY
CANADA TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME LEAVING
A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
THIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ALEX TO SLOW DOWN AND
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
TAKING ALEX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFDL...
HWRF...UKMET...AND GFS-PARALLEL MODELS MOVE ALEX WESTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY
HANDLE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
...
WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCE A STRONGER...MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
...AND SLOWER PATTERN. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO
CONFIRM THAT TREND
. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE
.

BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ALEX WHILE IT IS HAS BEEN
OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE 5 KT OR
LESS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SSTS OF 28C AND WARMER
EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK...THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD
THAT ALEX COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE SHIPS AND DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY
MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 18.3N 89.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 19.1N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 28/0600Z 20.2N 91.9W 40 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.9N 92.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 93.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 22.6N 95.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 23.2N 97.4W 85 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 99.7W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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3735. xcool
8:58 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
OK
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3734. dreamondx
8:57 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
NEW BLOG
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3733. xcool
8:56 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
btwntx08 HUH
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3731. scott39
8:55 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Pretty much....if we want to be picky it will likely pass slightly to the north of the 10pm forecast track, but the deviation is minor for now. We'll have to see how it's moving when it emerges in the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow evening.
thanks, Do you anticipate time in the GOM at current speed, between 3pm and 5pm
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3730. lopaka001
8:54 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Put together some slides to give you a better view,allow to load..


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3728. Levi32
8:52 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Is it tracking over the Yucatan as forcasted?


Pretty much....if we want to be picky it will likely pass slightly to the north of the 10pm forecast track, but the deviation is minor for now. We'll have to see how it's moving when it emerges in the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow evening. It's also moving faster across the Yucatan than forecast.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
3727. homelesswanderer
8:50 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting hunkerdown:
if you got the JSL map and click the L/L and Tropical forecast points, you will clearly see it is NOT moving due west and yo can also see the possible eye trying to form.


That's what i saw. at the very end look to be going west. i could be wrong. nhc was off by a long way earlier. so far the only thing I've read that didnt swallow the nhc track whole was new orleans outlook. good for them. lol
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3726. JLPR2
8:50 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
WTH Alex! you're overland, accept it! XD
He's still in denial LOL


and 94L is still out there and according to this, its way further south than what I thought


*fixed the image* XD
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3725. scott39
8:49 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Not really anything new....still watching and waiting. Tomorrow will hopefully reveal some answers.
Is it tracking over the Yucatan as forcasted?
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3724. Levi32
8:46 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Any new thoughts on track?


Not really anything new....still watching and waiting. Tomorrow will hopefully reveal some answers.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
3723. hunkerdown
8:45 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer:
earlier when nhc said he was moving west. he was clearly moving nw. now they say ww looks due west.
if you got the JSL map and click the L/L and Tropical forecast points, you will clearly see it is NOT moving due west and yo can also see the possible eye trying to form.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
3722. scott39
8:43 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
Incredible. Alex is developing an eye over land. It was seen in radar imagery earlier but is now apparent on IR satellite as well.

Any new thoughts on track?
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3721. xcool
8:43 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
18.4 89.2
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3720. xcool
8:42 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
homelesswanderer LMAO .YOU GOT LOVE N.H.C
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3719. homelesswanderer
8:40 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
earlier when nhc said he was moving west. he was clearly moving nw. now they say ww looks due west.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3718. HurricaneKing
8:40 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Ok I stop looking at Alex for a couple hours and it redevelops its partial eye wall and looks like its trying to close it off. Since its on land and the drag of the land slows down the winds down expect it to be anything more than a tropical storm but this is a bad sign of what will happens once it hits the Gulf. It already has the structure so while back over water the only thing it will be working on is picking its winds back up. Personally i think that the tracks going to surprise alot of people and I think everyone needs to keep an eye on it.
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3717. scott39
8:40 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Alex 18.2N 89.1W IMO-- Thats the farthest N its gained between new cordinates, since it was declared a TD.
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3716. xcool
8:38 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Levi32 WELCOME BACK SIR
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3715. MississippiWx
8:38 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
The BAM models are better for shallow (weak) systems. The low level flow would take Alex straight into Mexico, according to the BAM models. Alex will likely strengthen out over the Bay of Campeche and Southern GOM and go farther north than the BAM models say. It's anyone's guess as to how far Alex actually goes.
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3714. Levi32
8:37 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Incredible. Alex is developing an eye over land. It was seen in radar imagery earlier but is now apparent on IR satellite as well.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
3712. xcool
8:35 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
3711. scott39
8:35 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Hi yall. Well the models are going farther north but the NHC says no. Rolling my eyes.

MEANWHILE...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALL BUT THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET
MANIFEST CONVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX
AFTER IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH IN TURN SUFFICIENTLY
ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO STEER ALEX TOWARD PORT ARTHUR BY
DAY 5...A SCENARIO NOT SUPPORT BY THE BULK OF GUIDANCE...THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST...AND COORDINATED HPC/NHC POINTS FROM
YESTERDAY. THUS...WILL HONOR FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH ALEX WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED THIS PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...THE
PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL BE CREATED USING 100 PERCENT OF THE 00Z
ECMWF DAY 3 BEFORE INCORPORATING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF THE 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DAYS 4-7...WITH THE BLEND BY DAY 7
APPROXIMATELY 1/3 ECMWF TO 2/3 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

JAMES
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6730
3710. hunkerdown
8:34 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:

hmmm why the bamms move down?? i think the bams are ingoring the trough lol very unlikely that will happen
Actually, only the BAMM and BAMS keep it on a more westerly track...if you look closely you can see the BAMD making a sharp turn to the NNE/NE in the BOC toward LA.
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3709. MississippiWx
8:31 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting scott39:
How strong do expect the trough to be?


I'm really not sure. Your guess is as good as mine, but looking at water vapor imagery, the trof is still pretty strong and still digging into the 4-Corner States. According to steering maps, the high over the Eastern US has already started eroding. The northern part of the trof is racing across the North-central part of the country, currently over North and South Dakota. However, the southern end of the trof is lagging behind in Arizona and New Mexico. The trof is in the process of "splitting" and it depends on how strong the southern end of the trof stays. A stronger trof would not allow the ridge to build back in as quickly, like most of the models are saying. I was really against a South TX hit earlier today, but I'm a little more on the fence about that now. Seeing as how the steering currents have already shifted out of the SSE, I'm a little skeptical of such a southern track...
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3708. xcool
8:29 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
LOL
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3707. homelesswanderer
8:27 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Is it just me but did that thing I just posted say the ridge would erode but oh well??? Lol.
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3706. xcool
8:27 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
DUCK MODELS
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
3704. homelesswanderer
8:25 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Hi yall. Well the models are going farther north but the NHC says no. Rolling my eyes.

MEANWHILE...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALL BUT THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET
MANIFEST CONVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX
AFTER IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH IN TURN SUFFICIENTLY
ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO STEER ALEX TOWARD PORT ARTHUR BY
DAY 5...A SCENARIO NOT SUPPORT BY THE BULK OF GUIDANCE...THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST...AND COORDINATED HPC/NHC POINTS FROM
YESTERDAY. THUS...WILL HONOR FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH ALEX WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED THIS PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...THE
PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL BE CREATED USING 100 PERCENT OF THE 00Z
ECMWF DAY 3 BEFORE INCORPORATING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF THE 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DAYS 4-7...WITH THE BLEND BY DAY 7
APPROXIMATELY 1/3 ECMWF TO 2/3 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

JAMES
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3703. xcool
8:21 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Professional-Met MississippiWx:IM ASKING
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3702. scott39
8:19 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting MississippiWx:


Probably. It's a massive system with so much heat and moisture and plenty of water surrounding it. StormW mentioned earlier today that Alex might just "eat" the Yucatan Peninsula and not really weaken. I doubt we are seeing a strengthening cyclone since it's over land. However, it is very interesting to look at and Alex may never lose any strength traversing the Yucatan.
How strong do expect the trough to be?
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3701. xcool
8:18 AM GMT on June 27, 2010


trough
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3700. MississippiWx
8:17 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
Quoting scott39:
could that be all the energy it pulling off from around it?


Probably. It's a massive system with so much heat and moisture and plenty of water surrounding it. StormW mentioned earlier today that Alex might just "eat" the Yucatan Peninsula and not really weaken. I doubt we are seeing a strengthening cyclone since it's over land. However, it is very interesting to look at and Alex may never lose any strength traversing the Yucatan.
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3699. scott39
8:17 AM GMT on June 27, 2010
alex is definitely gaining more latitude, than it has been.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.