Tropical Storm Alex bears down on the Yucatan; extreme heat for Africa and Russia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on June 26, 2010

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The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 is here. Tropical Storm Alex formed last might from an African tropical wave that plowed through the Caribbean this week. Alex's formation location is a typical one for June tropical storms, and the formation date of June 25 is also a fairly typical date for the first storm of the season to form (we average about one June named storm every two years in the Atlantic.) Heavy rainfall will ramp up through the day in Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as Alex continues to intensify, and flooding from these heavy rains will be the main concern from Alex today and Sunday. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorm are growing in intensity and areal coverage at a respectable pace. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over the storm, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is not a problem for Alex. We currently don't have a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm, so we will have to wait until 2pm this afternoon to get an updated estimate of Alex's surface winds. The latest satellite estimates of Alex's winds at 8am EDT put the storm's strongest winds at 40 mph.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the tropics at 9am EDT Saturday 6/26/10. Image credit: GOES Science Project.

Forecast for Alex
As I discussed in last night's post, an examination of the nineteen tropical cyclones that have formed in the Western Caribbean and hit the Yucatan Peninsula over the past twenty years reveals that 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. The ones that died all took a more southerly path across the Yucatan, spending more time over land than Alex will. Alex is large enough and moving far enough north across the Yucatan that passage over the peninsula will not kill it. So, will Alex follow the path climatology says is more likely, and make a second landfall along the Mexican Gulf Coast?


Figure 2. Forecast swath of tropical storm force winds (34 - 63 knots, green colors) and hurricane force winds (yellow and orange colors) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA GFDL team.

The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. Some of yesterday's model runs predicted that this trough would be strong enough to pull Alex northwards through the oil slick region into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. However, the models that were predicting this (the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models) are all backing off on that prediction. It now appears likely that Alex will cross the Yucatan, emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, then slow down as the trough to its north weakens the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. By Tuesday, the influence of the trough will wane, high pressure will build in, and Alex will resume a west-northwest, or possibly a due west or west-southwest motion, towards the Texas/Mexico border region. Based on the current trends in the models, Alex's tropical storm force winds are likely to stay well south of the oil slick region (Figure 2.) I put the odds of Alex bringing tropical storm-force winds to the oil slick region at 10%. The most significant impact Alex will likely have on the oil slick region is to bring 2 - 4 foot swells that may wash oil over some of the containment booms. These swells will reach the oil slick region on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Continued intensification of Alex is likely today, up until landfall. It is a good thing the storm waited until last night to get organized; had it formed a day earlier, it could have easily been a hurricane in the Western Caribbean today. Once Alex emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, it will likely take the storm at least 24 hours to get re-organized, particularly since the total ocean heat content is low for the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf next week, and it appears that Alex will have time to intensify into a hurricane before making its second landfall along the South Texas/northern Mexico coast. Wind shear is expected to be light, and dry air not a significant impediment. Most of the models are calling for landfall on Wednesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this delayed until Thursday. I give Alex a 60% chance of becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) is a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, and is not a threat to develop today. However, by Monday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. None of the models currently develop 94L, but Bermuda should keep and eye on this system, as it will pass very close to the island on Tuesday.

Extreme heat wave in Africa and Asia continues to set all-time high temperature records
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered continues to smash all-time high temperatures Asia and Africa. As I reported earlier this week, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Niger, Pakistan, and Myanmar have all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time over the past six weeks. The remarkable heat continued over Africa and Asia late this week. The Asian portion of Russia recorded its highest temperate in history yesterday, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004. (The record for European Russia is 43.8°C--110.8°F--set on August 6, 1940, at Alexandrov Gaj near the border with Kazakhstan.) Also, on Thursday, Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

We've now had eight countries in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. This includes Asia's hottest temperature of all-time, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the only year which can compare is 2003, when six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this summer's heat wave in Asia and Africa are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The long range outlook shows a continuation of east to southeast winds along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting at least one update on Alex this weekend. My next update will be Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Weatherkid27:
Forecast to become a 75MPH Category 1 hurricane in 96 hours.
sooner than that a lot sooner maybe by the end of the day
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I just wanted to offer my commentary on what this may do to gas and crude prices.

I've not seen anyone ask but FYI. Crude was up 2.50 a bbl yesterday and RBOB was up 7 cpg on the Merc. That was mainly attributed to a weakening dollar and this guy.

BUT we (US) are above the 5 year average inventory for crude and mogas and diesel. So even if production is shut in - there is a helluva lot of material in inventory to draw on.

So from a fundamental supply/demand standpoint, this storm really shouldn't increase crude or mogas prices much at all.

But I believe there will be hedges upward in crude (in a large way related to the moratorium) by trading firms that will push mogas upward with it. The storm would have to make an Ike like path to really affect anyone's refining operations to any significant extent. There are some in Corpus but most are in Houston and Pt Arthur.

So anyway - I'd bet there is some rise in gas prices because of speculators but really there shouldn't be unless it turns to an Ike like path.
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Quoting MrstormX:
lol Grothar... it happened again


:P Very funny! I have very few glory days left. You should be kinder to your elders. Posting those are the biggest excitement I have all day. Imagine the rest of my day.
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Were going to have to watch that Wind Field and how its favoring the NE side as sometimes these Larger recently formed Bigun's can relocate that Big Mo to another CoC.

The Lifting to the North is noted as well on the Viz frames as they begin to load in.

TS Alex Viz Loop
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Big Alex

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NHC now forecasting a hurricane in the GOM but no timeline yet stormw, Patrap can you guys check this out. Models have now move south
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Quoting StormW:


They read my forecast.


lol
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We are getting some strong seas coming into East Harbour, Utila. Waves are coming over some docks and winds from the SW.

MY LOCATION 16.10N 86.90W
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Alex is now forecast to hit Mexico. Guess Taz was right. But in case you missed my previous post, GFS currently predicts Alex will split in half like the previous model runs did, and have one part ploughing southwest into Mexico and the other part making landfall on the Florida Panhandle before strengthening and exploding in the Gulf Stream to make landfall on Nova Scotia and being trailed by three vorticies all within 7 days.
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Forecast to become a 75MPH Category 1 hurricane in 96 hours.
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Quoting StormW:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 17.3N 86.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 17.7N 87.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 19.0N 89.1W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 28/0000Z 20.5N 91.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 28/1200Z 22.0N 92.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 23.5N 96.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 24.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND
Now forecasting hurricane 65KT = 74.9 MPH
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Quoting jpsb:
Yes but the hard part is establishing a baseline. Warmers want thee baseline cold, cooler want the baseline warm. A good question is what temperature should the earth be? So far I have not heard a good answer. Ok, back to Alex, just could not let the 'where are .....' remark slide by. I am usually very good at letting things slide by, I'll try harder.

I usually succeed at the "slide by" by hitting the minus on the snide posts. Then they get an appropriate vote, and hidden, and the temptation passes to comment further.
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Wow I can't believe the NHC partially favors the CMC with Alex...
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83. jpsb
Quoting fatlady99:

dropping a nasty comment and then running away is called a 'hit and run'. not nice and not much integrity to it. best to avoid the nasty in the first place if you don't want a debate.
I was not the one accusing one side of the debate of "cooking the books", maybe you better reread the comments. I just responded in kind.
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Quoting nola70119:


Exactly.....and most of their resources are in hurricane prone areas.



I kinda noted that as well
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Quoting c150flyer:


not 60,000 gallons, 60,000 BARRELS... take 60,000 and multiply it by 42 and you get 2,520,000 gallons per day.


...
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WOW!...what a sight to wake up to!
Please forgive me for calling 93L a wuss. I
promise never to do it again..

Dr. M. thanks so much for the update on this
Saturday morning.
BTW, I was down at Gulf Shores late yesterday afternoon and it was beautiful. Except for the aray of boats and equipment associated with the oil clean-up/watch one would never know there was a problem. The water was beautiful - no sign of oil where we were.
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419

NOUS42 KNHC 261430

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1030 AM EDT SAT 26 JUNE 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2010

TCPOD NUMBER.....10-026



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. TROPICAL STORM ALEX

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70

A. 28/0000, 0600Z

B. AFXXX 0401A ALEX

C. 27/2100Z

D. 20.5N 91.0W

E. 27/2300Z TO 28/0600Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71

A. 28/1200, 1800Z

B. AFXXX 0501A ALEX

C. 28/0900Z

D. 22.0N 92.5W

E. 28/1100Z TO 28/1800Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES

IF ALEX REMAINS A THREAT.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

JWP
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Quoting Patrap:


BP says they have hurricane plan; Jindal says it lacks detail

The U.S. Coast Guard says it and BP have a storm evacuation plan ready to go, but the governor says it's still lacking major specifics.


Exactly.....and most of their resources are in hurricane prone areas.
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lol Grothar... it happened again
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Lol flood, that's what you would think, but actually it means to leave in a hurry...Great word though. Doing good, thanks.

Hey Gamma :)
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Quoting Floodman:


SJ! How you been? By the way, ummm..."absquatulate"? Sounds like you need some Pepto!


LOL you are already funny and still so early!
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL UPDATE FEATURING TROPICAL STORM ALEX ISSUED 9:30 A.M. JUN 26, 2010


Good stuff Storm, thanks for the update!
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Alex up to 45, now predicted to become a Hurricane in the Gulf.
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45 MPH
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TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS...NUMEROUS SQUALLS IN RAINBANDS...AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER... A
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL THAT ALEX STILL HAS A POORLY
ORGANIZED INNER CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED
ON 3.0 AND 2.5 DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TABF AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY...AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX LATER TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE
A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH ALEX IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE
STRENGTHENING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE EFFECT OF LAND PRIMARILY AS
THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE
COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH AND ALEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME BECOME A
HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH THE LGEM AND DECAY SHIPS MODELS.

SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE A RELIABLE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION
CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. ALEX IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ALEX MOVING ON THE SAME GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALEX SHOULD DECREASE ITS FORWARD
SPEED. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN
FACT...THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR WHICH PREVIOUSLY MOVED ALEX ON A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE GULF HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ARE
NOW SHOWING A MORE WESTERWARD TRACK LIKE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
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Strengthened by 5mph
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...LARGE TROPICAL STORM ALEX HEADING TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 86.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


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64. jpsb
Quoting Floodman:


LAwet warming/cooling comment: so the fact that Canada and Alaska had the warmest winters in memory wouldn't count (as I was told by the local "experts" a dozen times this winter)...further, yes, it's true that you would look to cooler climates for definitive evidence of warming, but if the warner areas are way above the nrom, wouldn't that be evidence too?
Yes but the hard part is establishing a baseline. Warmers want thee baseline cold, cooler want the baseline warm. A good question is what temperature should the earth be? So far I have not heard a good answer. Ok, back to Alex, just could not let the 'where are .....' remark slide by. I am usually very good at letting things slide by, I'll try harder.
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 261445
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...LARGE TROPICAL STORM ALEX HEADING TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 86.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ALEX MOVES INLAND TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...AND THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER
TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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Quoting fatlady99:

dropping a nasty comment and then running away is called a 'hit and run'. not nice and not much integrity to it. best to avoid the nasty in the first place if you don't want a debate.


funny...
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I would expect answers to questions about the current plans in the Gulf will be addressed at:


MEDIA ADVISORY: National Incident Commander to Provide Deepwater BP Oil Spill Response Operational Update

Who: Adm. Thad Allen, National Incident Commander

What: Teleconference to provide update on ongoing Deepwater Horizon BP oil spill response efforts

When: Saturday, June 26, 2010, 12:00 p.m. EDT.
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What a little beast... *Correction - Big Beast*

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Quoting StormJunkie:
Good to see ya flood.

Time for me to absquatulate. Y'all have a great day.


SJ! How you been? By the way, ummm..."absquatulate"? Sounds like you need some Pepto!
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Quoting jpsb:
Cooking the books? I thought you warmers had the franchise on that. FYI, not going to get into a debate here, might see ya in the AGW blog soon.


Only if AGW stands for Alex Gone Wild lol
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XX/XX/94L
MARK(POSS T.C.F.A.)
20.8N/58.1W
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Hey post #35 i agree with you but if you are not gloom and doom and end of the world comments you will not last long on this site.Stick to weather and no disagreement with certain posters.
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I thought BP officials said they needed 5 days to clear out IF 40mph winds were forecast to hit their area. There's no such forecast.
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Recon has taken off;

14:31:30 30.417N 88.917W 1017.1 mb* 0 m* 1015.2 mb* No Wind No Wind - -
14:32:00 30.417N 88.917W 1016.3 mb* 0 m* 1014.7 mb* From 319%uFFFD (NW) at 3 kts (3.4 mph) 6 kts (~ 6.9 mph) - -
14:32:30 30.400N 88.933W 1008.6 mb 36 m 1014.3 mb From 333%uFFFD (NNW) at 7 kts (8.0 mph) 7 kts (~ 8.0 mph) - -
14:33:00 30.383N 88.950W 982.4 mb 297 m 1015.9 mb From 330%uFFFD (NNW) at 8 kts (9.2 mph) 8 kts (~ 9.2 mph) - -
14:33:30 30.367N 88.967W 962.0 mb 482 m 1016.3 mb From 324%uFFFD (NW) at 6 kts (6.9 mph) 7 kts (~ 8.0 mph) - -
14:34:00 30.350N 88.983W 928.1 mb 808 m 1017.5 mb From 300%uFFFD (WNW) at 2 kts (2.3 mph) 3 kts (~ 3.4 mph) - -
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51. jpsb
Quoting Floodman:


Busy cooking the numbers to make this look like cooling...
Cooking the books? I thought you warmers had the franchise on that. FYI, not going to get into a debate here, might see ya in the AGW blog soon.
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Everybody have their finger on the F5 button?
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Quoting graysn:
Pat:

We're in the Riverbend. Where are you?


Uptown,,Mag and Jeff
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.