Tropical Storm Alex bears down on the Yucatan; extreme heat for Africa and Russia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on June 26, 2010

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The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 is here. Tropical Storm Alex formed last might from an African tropical wave that plowed through the Caribbean this week. Alex's formation location is a typical one for June tropical storms, and the formation date of June 25 is also a fairly typical date for the first storm of the season to form (we average about one June named storm every two years in the Atlantic.) Heavy rainfall will ramp up through the day in Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as Alex continues to intensify, and flooding from these heavy rains will be the main concern from Alex today and Sunday. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorm are growing in intensity and areal coverage at a respectable pace. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over the storm, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is not a problem for Alex. We currently don't have a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm, so we will have to wait until 2pm this afternoon to get an updated estimate of Alex's surface winds. The latest satellite estimates of Alex's winds at 8am EDT put the storm's strongest winds at 40 mph.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the tropics at 9am EDT Saturday 6/26/10. Image credit: GOES Science Project.

Forecast for Alex
As I discussed in last night's post, an examination of the nineteen tropical cyclones that have formed in the Western Caribbean and hit the Yucatan Peninsula over the past twenty years reveals that 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. The ones that died all took a more southerly path across the Yucatan, spending more time over land than Alex will. Alex is large enough and moving far enough north across the Yucatan that passage over the peninsula will not kill it. So, will Alex follow the path climatology says is more likely, and make a second landfall along the Mexican Gulf Coast?


Figure 2. Forecast swath of tropical storm force winds (34 - 63 knots, green colors) and hurricane force winds (yellow and orange colors) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA GFDL team.

The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. Some of yesterday's model runs predicted that this trough would be strong enough to pull Alex northwards through the oil slick region into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. However, the models that were predicting this (the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models) are all backing off on that prediction. It now appears likely that Alex will cross the Yucatan, emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, then slow down as the trough to its north weakens the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. By Tuesday, the influence of the trough will wane, high pressure will build in, and Alex will resume a west-northwest, or possibly a due west or west-southwest motion, towards the Texas/Mexico border region. Based on the current trends in the models, Alex's tropical storm force winds are likely to stay well south of the oil slick region (Figure 2.) I put the odds of Alex bringing tropical storm-force winds to the oil slick region at 10%. The most significant impact Alex will likely have on the oil slick region is to bring 2 - 4 foot swells that may wash oil over some of the containment booms. These swells will reach the oil slick region on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Continued intensification of Alex is likely today, up until landfall. It is a good thing the storm waited until last night to get organized; had it formed a day earlier, it could have easily been a hurricane in the Western Caribbean today. Once Alex emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, it will likely take the storm at least 24 hours to get re-organized, particularly since the total ocean heat content is low for the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf next week, and it appears that Alex will have time to intensify into a hurricane before making its second landfall along the South Texas/northern Mexico coast. Wind shear is expected to be light, and dry air not a significant impediment. Most of the models are calling for landfall on Wednesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this delayed until Thursday. I give Alex a 60% chance of becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) is a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, and is not a threat to develop today. However, by Monday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. None of the models currently develop 94L, but Bermuda should keep and eye on this system, as it will pass very close to the island on Tuesday.

Extreme heat wave in Africa and Asia continues to set all-time high temperature records
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered continues to smash all-time high temperatures Asia and Africa. As I reported earlier this week, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Niger, Pakistan, and Myanmar have all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time over the past six weeks. The remarkable heat continued over Africa and Asia late this week. The Asian portion of Russia recorded its highest temperate in history yesterday, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004. (The record for European Russia is 43.8°C--110.8°F--set on August 6, 1940, at Alexandrov Gaj near the border with Kazakhstan.) Also, on Thursday, Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

We've now had eight countries in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. This includes Asia's hottest temperature of all-time, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the only year which can compare is 2003, when six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this summer's heat wave in Asia and Africa are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The long range outlook shows a continuation of east to southeast winds along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting at least one update on Alex this weekend. My next update will be Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting largeeyes:
Does anyone have a deactivation of 94l?


94L has not been deactivated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting largeeyes:
Does anyone have a deactivation of 94l?


No, in fact it had 12Z coordinates which is the last update time
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Quoting GlobalWarming:
levi, if bonnie developed, would it be a fish spinner or a land striker, thoughts?
It isn't coming to Miami so calm down.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting extreme236:
HDOB 17 is still the latest recon report...wondering what's going on.
Its prob over land
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745. WAHA
Quoting itrackstorms:


THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY


Again, say it with me now...

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY


Why is every named storm going to RAPIDLY INTENSIFY?

One more time...

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.

Thank you.

I don't think it will rapidly intensify.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
It will be, at strongest, maybe 65 mph. not that rapid.
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Track updated with new coordinates. Expect landfall within the next 6 hours.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
743. IKE
Quoting MrNatural:
Been out of touch since last night. Is it my imagination, or is Alex tracking further south than what was projected last night?


I think it is further south than predicted last night.
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Does anyone have a deactivation of 94l?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting itrackstorms:


THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY


Again, say it with me now...

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY


Why is every named storm going to RAPIDLY INTENSIFY?

One more time...

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.

Thank you.


I don't get it. What are you trying to say? Some people just don't know how to come out with it. Sheesh.
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721.

We should know it's not going to RI right now. It's more of a concern in the GOM.
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Quoting Snowlover123:


94L just got dropped.

-Snowlover123


94L has not been deactivated
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Quoting Grothar:
Darn, you Taz, I thought you were slow on the F5, beat me again. My browser posts slow. And for you MIAMIAHURRICANE09, just wait! LOL
I'm using a Mac so I have to right click and press "reload", the F5 button doesn't work for refreshing, lol. I just beat you nasty.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Been out of touch since last night. Is it my imagination, or is Alex tracking further south than what was projected last night?
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Quoting scott39:
Great video presentation Levi, One question Why did some models pick up on that high building in and kicking Alex back W and why others didnt?


Ditto, great show Levi.
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Alex coulda been a contenda'. I often wonder what hurricane history would be like without Cuba/Hispanolia and the Yucatan.
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Quoting Levi32:


Some models are better than others :) I still think the ECMWF is too far south, but it led the way in dragging the model consensus west, and that's not surprising since it is one of our best models in the tropics.


Levi, this is what I'e been pointing out, how can a trough not lift a storm north? I keep getting that I'm wishcasting it north...
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1:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 26
Location: 17.5°N 87.2°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
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So no recon data? What happened?
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HDOB 17 is still the latest recon report...wondering what's going on.
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727. IKE
Jeez...it moved .2N and 1.1W. This thing is almost on land now.

Last recon on Alex for awhile.
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Damn people. You only need to post it once not 3 times.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
looks like my center fix was pretty darn close!!!
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I'm somewhat concerned about the latest CMC run, and not just because it puts a bombing hurricane over my house. The CMC verified very similarly to the ECMWF last year, and out that far, even better. In fact, at that time range, it verified better than any other method of forecasting! It may just be a rouge run, but I'm keeping my eyes on it...

2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Verification
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Darn, you Taz, I thought you were slow on the F5, beat me again. My browser posts slow. And for you MIAMIAHURRICANE09, just wait! LOL
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Looks like the eastern Atlantic is the place to be.

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I'm leaving guys. Bye.

-Snowlover123
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Hi everybody, Alex looks pretty consolidated this afternoon.
As of now, Belize City is about the center of the cone. To view click on Tropical & Hurricane under Severe Weather on the top menu of this page. Then click on Wundermap.

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was landfall today predicted???(no it wasn't,any models?????),i'm wondering if he's going to stall over the yucatan tomorrow???,what else would explain the timing w/the models???
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still at 45mph. interesting
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Quoting scott39:
Could the high weaken that is supposed to build back in and could the trough have more of an influence?


The trough could have more of an influence or stay over the east longer....that is what the track differences in the models are generally hinging on. There is still a possibility of Alex sneaking up into Texas, but we'll have to see. It is more likely to be a Mexico problem.
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Recon's last HDOB was removed.
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WTNT31 KNHC 261749
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...LARGE TROPICAL STORM ALEX HEADING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AIR FORCE PLANE INBOUND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 87.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST. ALEX HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. HOWEVER...ALEX SHOULD
DECREASE IT FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL REACH THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. ALEX
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ALEX MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...AND THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER
TODAY. HEAVY SQUALLS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING BELIZE AND EASTERN
YUCATAN AS REPORTED BY AN AUTOMATIC SURFACE STATION FROM THE
MEXICAN NAVY.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Waters will be around 29C immediately off the African coast, but shear may only be marginally favorable. The GFS does develop it though.

It MAY have some dry air/SAL problems.

It does bear watching:



94L just got dropped.

-Snowlover123
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 261749
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...LARGE TROPICAL STORM ALEX HEADING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AIR FORCE PLANE INBOUND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 87.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST. ALEX HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. HOWEVER...ALEX SHOULD
DECREASE IT FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL REACH THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. ALEX
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ALEX MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...AND THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER
TODAY. HEAVY SQUALLS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING BELIZE AND EASTERN
YUCATAN AS REPORTED BY AN AUTOMATIC SURFACE STATION FROM THE
MEXICAN NAVY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 261749
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...LARGE TROPICAL STORM ALEX HEADING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AIR FORCE PLANE INBOUND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 87.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST. ALEX HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. HOWEVER...ALEX SHOULD
DECREASE IT FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL REACH THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. ALEX
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ALEX MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...AND THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER
TODAY. HEAVY SQUALLS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING BELIZE AND EASTERN
YUCATAN AS REPORTED BY AN AUTOMATIC SURFACE STATION FROM THE
MEXICAN NAVY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Levi32:


Some models are better than others :) I still think the ECMWF is too far south, but it led the way in dragging the model consensus west, and that's not surprising since it is one of our best models in the tropics.
Could the high weaken that is supposed to build back in and could the trough have more of an influence?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I'm going to save that. That's incredible. Likely future Bonnie. What will the conditions for it be once it exits the coast?


Waters will be around 29C immediately off the African coast, but shear may only be marginally favorable. The GFS does develop it though.

It probably will have some dry air/SAL problems along the way.

It does bear watching:

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Even the coordinates the NHC gives out aren't worth much until the recon gets a center fix.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
recon has not updated in 20 minutes
The site is down for me
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I would say we're experiencing tropical storm conditions here in Grand Cayman for about the last 45 minutes and Alex is quite a distance from us. Just spoke to my wife's family in Corozal(northern Belize) weather there going downhill fast!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Usually happens when they are descending but they were already at the surface so that is kind of weird.


Maybe Alex was so strong it knocked out the data transmission. :P

-Snowlover123
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This huge trough that is prog'd to pass over the GOM....is this the type of thing that could have a low spin up off the SE coast next week from it's tail end?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok I'll be the only one to post the 2PM advisory. Please don't post it 12 times.


Like calling SHOTGUN!!!

Good idea, let's see if it catches on.
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699. ATL
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok I'll be the only one to post the 2PM advisory. Please don't post it 12 times.

Pretty sure that's been said every season and it's never worked. I'll refrain from posting it though...
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.