Tropical Storm Alex bears down on the Yucatan; extreme heat for Africa and Russia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on June 26, 2010

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The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 is here. Tropical Storm Alex formed last might from an African tropical wave that plowed through the Caribbean this week. Alex's formation location is a typical one for June tropical storms, and the formation date of June 25 is also a fairly typical date for the first storm of the season to form (we average about one June named storm every two years in the Atlantic.) Heavy rainfall will ramp up through the day in Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as Alex continues to intensify, and flooding from these heavy rains will be the main concern from Alex today and Sunday. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorm are growing in intensity and areal coverage at a respectable pace. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over the storm, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is not a problem for Alex. We currently don't have a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm, so we will have to wait until 2pm this afternoon to get an updated estimate of Alex's surface winds. The latest satellite estimates of Alex's winds at 8am EDT put the storm's strongest winds at 40 mph.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the tropics at 9am EDT Saturday 6/26/10. Image credit: GOES Science Project.

Forecast for Alex
As I discussed in last night's post, an examination of the nineteen tropical cyclones that have formed in the Western Caribbean and hit the Yucatan Peninsula over the past twenty years reveals that 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. The ones that died all took a more southerly path across the Yucatan, spending more time over land than Alex will. Alex is large enough and moving far enough north across the Yucatan that passage over the peninsula will not kill it. So, will Alex follow the path climatology says is more likely, and make a second landfall along the Mexican Gulf Coast?


Figure 2. Forecast swath of tropical storm force winds (34 - 63 knots, green colors) and hurricane force winds (yellow and orange colors) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA GFDL team.

The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. Some of yesterday's model runs predicted that this trough would be strong enough to pull Alex northwards through the oil slick region into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. However, the models that were predicting this (the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models) are all backing off on that prediction. It now appears likely that Alex will cross the Yucatan, emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, then slow down as the trough to its north weakens the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. By Tuesday, the influence of the trough will wane, high pressure will build in, and Alex will resume a west-northwest, or possibly a due west or west-southwest motion, towards the Texas/Mexico border region. Based on the current trends in the models, Alex's tropical storm force winds are likely to stay well south of the oil slick region (Figure 2.) I put the odds of Alex bringing tropical storm-force winds to the oil slick region at 10%. The most significant impact Alex will likely have on the oil slick region is to bring 2 - 4 foot swells that may wash oil over some of the containment booms. These swells will reach the oil slick region on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Continued intensification of Alex is likely today, up until landfall. It is a good thing the storm waited until last night to get organized; had it formed a day earlier, it could have easily been a hurricane in the Western Caribbean today. Once Alex emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, it will likely take the storm at least 24 hours to get re-organized, particularly since the total ocean heat content is low for the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf next week, and it appears that Alex will have time to intensify into a hurricane before making its second landfall along the South Texas/northern Mexico coast. Wind shear is expected to be light, and dry air not a significant impediment. Most of the models are calling for landfall on Wednesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this delayed until Thursday. I give Alex a 60% chance of becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) is a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, and is not a threat to develop today. However, by Monday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. None of the models currently develop 94L, but Bermuda should keep and eye on this system, as it will pass very close to the island on Tuesday.

Extreme heat wave in Africa and Asia continues to set all-time high temperature records
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered continues to smash all-time high temperatures Asia and Africa. As I reported earlier this week, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Niger, Pakistan, and Myanmar have all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time over the past six weeks. The remarkable heat continued over Africa and Asia late this week. The Asian portion of Russia recorded its highest temperate in history yesterday, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004. (The record for European Russia is 43.8°C--110.8°F--set on August 6, 1940, at Alexandrov Gaj near the border with Kazakhstan.) Also, on Thursday, Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

We've now had eight countries in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. This includes Asia's hottest temperature of all-time, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the only year which can compare is 2003, when six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this summer's heat wave in Asia and Africa are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The long range outlook shows a continuation of east to southeast winds along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting at least one update on Alex this weekend. My next update will be Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1299. jpsb
Quoting StormW:


???????????????????????????????????????????????
yeah, beer time, will check back later to see if north movement component is for real.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1262
Quoting Joanie38:


Thank you Tropicfreak ! :)


No problem, this blog is a great place to be educated and learn more about the weather. Please check back in if you have a question or if you would like to post comments.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Hmmm, you are probably right, now Florida and the East coastline may be under the gun now.


Naa.. not from Alex, but the next few waves coming from Africa could be interesting down the road.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Oh...OK!

?????????????????
LOL!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:
Ok the recon is leaving....I guess they decided to leave early.

That's strange.
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Quoting weatherman410:


Not necessarily. It means that it has run into a block of some kind with weaker steering currents. It will look for a weakness and that will be the direction in which it moves. It could be a different direction or in the same direction depending on the dominant feature that it encounters.


Thanks for your answer weatherman410 :)
Member Since: June 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 507
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


"?" key a bit sticky Chief?
LMAO!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1-1 US/Ghana for those of you working hard at studying Alex.
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Quoting StormW:


???????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????? He's talking about the wave over Africa not Alex.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting tropicfreak:



Usually it does.


Thank you Tropicfreak ! :)
Member Since: June 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 507
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


If thats going to happen, it needs more model support.


Last time I read I got the impression that it did, maybe not though.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting StormW:


???????????????????????????????????????????????


"?" key a bit sticky Chief?

lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:


Joanie,

It will typically mean that the steering currents (temporarily) are not conductive for movement. So a system will typically "wait" until a High or a Low pushes it or pulls it. Hopefully it'll give you a general idea. So to answer your question more directly... yes.


Thank you very much for your answer :) Makes sense...understand better now :)
Member Since: June 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 507
Quoting reedzone:
Alex should be at 60 mph. at least by 5 p.m. and should be making landfall around the evening, as early as 6-7 p.m. today. I'm looking for landfall around 60-70 mph., might be bullish but looking at the recon data coming in, I find it reasonable that Alex is trying to put on a show, maybe the last show? Some people believe Alex is so far south that it may NEVER reach the waters again and die out over the Yucatan. While that is a possibility, going by past storms as they travel through the Yucatan, they tend to go north. I'm expecting Alex to turn northwest while going over land, possibly weakening to a 35-40 mph. system. As I've seen with past Tropical Storms that have crossed land, I won't rule out a new circulation forming over waters when the bulk of the system touches the waters. Looking at the forecast for the GOM and BOC, shear that is caused by an interaction of the upper level low and the anticyclone that is providing great outflow for Alex, should be moving northeast. In fact, looking at the CIMMS shear maps, it has already started moving northeast. Conditions will be ripe for development but the question is how far north can Alex go after crossing the Yucatan? Or could the EURO be right by taking a southern track across the BOC, sort of like Stan in 2005.


Hmmm, you are probably right, now Florida and the East coastline may be under the gun now.
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1283. Levi32
Ok the recon is leaving....I guess they decided to leave early.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I think that will be one of the rare systems NHC designates an invest while the system is still on land.. Of course not this early, but just before it comes off.


If thats going to happen, it needs more model support.
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1280. Levi32
Dropsonde west of Florida at around 18:30z reveals a strong 500mb high with a geopotenial height of 5920 meters. The winds start shifting from easterly to SSW above 500mb which is indicating the outflow of Alex at the upper levels.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I think that will be one of the rare systems NHC designates an invest while the system is still on land.. Of course not this early, but just before it comes off.
Possibly.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:


They don't have a problem hugging the coast.
They might take a look at the COC right before they leave.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Alex should be at 60 mph. at least by 5 p.m. and should be making landfall around the evening, as early as 6-7 p.m. today. I'm looking for landfall around 60-70 mph., might be bullish but looking at the recon data coming in, I find it reasonable that Alex is trying to put on a show, maybe the last show? Some people believe Alex is so far south that it may NEVER reach the waters again and die out over the Yucatan. While that is a possibility, going by past storms as they travel through the Yucatan, they tend to go north. I'm expecting Alex to turn northwest while going over land, possibly weakening to a 35-40 mph. system. As I've seen with past Tropical Storms that have crossed land, I won't rule out a new circulation forming over waters when the bulk of the system touches the waters. Looking at the forecast for the GOM and BOC, shear that is caused by an interaction of the upper level low and the anticyclone that is providing great outflow for Alex, should be moving northeast. In fact, looking at the CIMMS shear maps, it has already started moving northeast. Conditions will be ripe for development but the question is how far north can Alex go after crossing the Yucatan? Or could the EURO be right by taking a southern track across the BOC, sort of like Stan in 2005.
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1276. WxLogic
Quoting Levi32:


They don't have a problem hugging the coast.


As long as they're OK with it... I'm good with them to carry on then. :)
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Ok I looked at Keeper's loop and I don't see a big jog at all... as I thought.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting Joanie38:
Hello everyone..I have a question..hopefully it ain't a stupid one....When a system stalls or halts completely, does it mean its about to turn a different direction??? Thanks in advance :)

Joanie


Not necessarily. It means that it has run into a block of some kind with weaker steering currents. It will look for a weakness and that will be the direction in which it moves. It could be a different direction or in the same direction depending on the dominant feature that it encounters.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


I think that will be one of the rare systems NHC designates an invest while the system is still on land.. Of course not this early, but just before it comes off.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1272. WxLogic
Quoting Joanie38:
Hello everyone..I have a question..hopefully it ain't a stupid one....When a system stalls or halts completely, does it mean its about to turn a different direction??? Thanks in advance :)

Joanie


Joanie,

It will typically mean that the steering currents (temporarily) are not conductive for movement. So a system will typically "wait" until a High or a Low pushes it or pulls it. Hopefully it'll give you a general idea. So to answer your question more directly... yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1271. Levi32
Quoting WxLogic:


I'm going to doubt it will be attempting another pass as it's already to close for comfort to land in my opinion.


They don't have a problem hugging the coast.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
Quoting Joanie38:
Hello everyone..I have a question..hopefully it ain't a stupid one....When a system stalls or halts completely, does it mean its about to turn a different direction??? Thanks in advance :)

Joanie



Usually it does.
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting jpsb:
Jog? New track? Damn Java links not working for me. Guess I need to update my Java.

Need to see another vortex pass to get a better idea.
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Does anyone have a loop showing this "big jog"? I really kinda doubt it and would like to see hehe.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting JDSmith:
Isn't Alex going to make landfall WAY ahead of schedule?
I expected landfall at around 8PM EDT earlier. Now looks like it will be around 5PM, it's about 3 hours ahead of schedule.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


No, its taking a big jog North.


A big jog.....hmmmm. I wonder what the tracking will be when the new update comes up?
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Quoting Levi32:


It's in there for another 80 minutes before it's scheduled to depart.
Looks like they are exploring the outside of the system now.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
"Alex's formation location is a typical one for June tropical storms, and the formation date of June 25 is also a fairly typical date for the first storm of the season to form (we average about one June named storm every two years in the Atlantic.)"

Hmmm... Pretty uncommon statement from Dr. Doom and Gloom. Couple of days ago it seemed like every other post was about how terrible this season was.

As for Alex, it appears the mess is finally getting some spin, but I think the good doctor is underestimating the impact the Yucatan will have on it. Given what little organization the storm has, 24 hours to reorganize may be a stretch. Also, it appears that a couple of the models that track the storm higher are initializing further north than the actual low. Based on what I see, if the storm takes a more westward track, and stays lower in the gulf (more like the GFS), this storm will look more like a bad afternoon here in Florida than a hurricane. Just my two cents...
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1259. WxLogic
Quoting Levi32:


It's in there for another 80 minutes before it's scheduled to depart.


I'm going to doubt it will be attempting another pass as it's already to close for comfort to land in my opinion.
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1258. JDSmith
Isn't Alex going to make landfall WAY ahead of schedule?
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I see they didn't up winds on the 2 PM advisory. This is clearly not a 45 mph system... wth.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Hello everyone..I have a question..hopefully it ain't a stupid one....When a system stalls or halts completely, does it mean its about to turn a different direction??? Thanks in advance :)

Joanie
Member Since: June 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 507
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


No, its taking a big jog Northwest.


This could be a change in the track
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1252. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


approaching landfall now less than 2 hrs away
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Is it going more south?

gotta be more north. do a extreme close up on visible.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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