Tropical Storm Alex bears down on the Yucatan; extreme heat for Africa and Russia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on June 26, 2010

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The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 is here. Tropical Storm Alex formed last might from an African tropical wave that plowed through the Caribbean this week. Alex's formation location is a typical one for June tropical storms, and the formation date of June 25 is also a fairly typical date for the first storm of the season to form (we average about one June named storm every two years in the Atlantic.) Heavy rainfall will ramp up through the day in Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as Alex continues to intensify, and flooding from these heavy rains will be the main concern from Alex today and Sunday. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorm are growing in intensity and areal coverage at a respectable pace. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over the storm, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is not a problem for Alex. We currently don't have a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm, so we will have to wait until 2pm this afternoon to get an updated estimate of Alex's surface winds. The latest satellite estimates of Alex's winds at 8am EDT put the storm's strongest winds at 40 mph.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the tropics at 9am EDT Saturday 6/26/10. Image credit: GOES Science Project.

Forecast for Alex
As I discussed in last night's post, an examination of the nineteen tropical cyclones that have formed in the Western Caribbean and hit the Yucatan Peninsula over the past twenty years reveals that 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. The ones that died all took a more southerly path across the Yucatan, spending more time over land than Alex will. Alex is large enough and moving far enough north across the Yucatan that passage over the peninsula will not kill it. So, will Alex follow the path climatology says is more likely, and make a second landfall along the Mexican Gulf Coast?


Figure 2. Forecast swath of tropical storm force winds (34 - 63 knots, green colors) and hurricane force winds (yellow and orange colors) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA GFDL team.

The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. Some of yesterday's model runs predicted that this trough would be strong enough to pull Alex northwards through the oil slick region into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. However, the models that were predicting this (the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models) are all backing off on that prediction. It now appears likely that Alex will cross the Yucatan, emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, then slow down as the trough to its north weakens the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. By Tuesday, the influence of the trough will wane, high pressure will build in, and Alex will resume a west-northwest, or possibly a due west or west-southwest motion, towards the Texas/Mexico border region. Based on the current trends in the models, Alex's tropical storm force winds are likely to stay well south of the oil slick region (Figure 2.) I put the odds of Alex bringing tropical storm-force winds to the oil slick region at 10%. The most significant impact Alex will likely have on the oil slick region is to bring 2 - 4 foot swells that may wash oil over some of the containment booms. These swells will reach the oil slick region on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Continued intensification of Alex is likely today, up until landfall. It is a good thing the storm waited until last night to get organized; had it formed a day earlier, it could have easily been a hurricane in the Western Caribbean today. Once Alex emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, it will likely take the storm at least 24 hours to get re-organized, particularly since the total ocean heat content is low for the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf next week, and it appears that Alex will have time to intensify into a hurricane before making its second landfall along the South Texas/northern Mexico coast. Wind shear is expected to be light, and dry air not a significant impediment. Most of the models are calling for landfall on Wednesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this delayed until Thursday. I give Alex a 60% chance of becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) is a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, and is not a threat to develop today. However, by Monday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. None of the models currently develop 94L, but Bermuda should keep and eye on this system, as it will pass very close to the island on Tuesday.

Extreme heat wave in Africa and Asia continues to set all-time high temperature records
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered continues to smash all-time high temperatures Asia and Africa. As I reported earlier this week, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Niger, Pakistan, and Myanmar have all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time over the past six weeks. The remarkable heat continued over Africa and Asia late this week. The Asian portion of Russia recorded its highest temperate in history yesterday, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004. (The record for European Russia is 43.8°C--110.8°F--set on August 6, 1940, at Alexandrov Gaj near the border with Kazakhstan.) Also, on Thursday, Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

We've now had eight countries in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. This includes Asia's hottest temperature of all-time, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the only year which can compare is 2003, when six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this summer's heat wave in Asia and Africa are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The long range outlook shows a continuation of east to southeast winds along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting at least one update on Alex this weekend. My next update will be Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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will someone please answer me are any models showing a possible storm hittin the central gulf coast july4th
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1648. Levi32
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Levi, we all know how systems can relocate their centers and such. Could that be what the model is trying to indicate?


Doubtful. It shows a wrong motion from 000 hours. A relocation could be in the cards if Alex significantly weakens over the Yucatan, but we'll have to see. The track is looking farther and farther south with time. I may have to adjust mine tomorrow as well, but it's best to wait and see. After it emerges into the gulf we'll probably be able to nail the landfall pretty well.

I gotta run, bye all.
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1647. IKE
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I have been on the southern route this whole time...ECMWF going to nail it again.
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maybe
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1643. xcool
HMM
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Levi, we all know how systems can relocate their centers and such. Could that be what the model is trying to indicate?
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wait ido even better i get my troll spay and spay him with it that will take care of it
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1639. IKE
Belize, BH (Airport)
Updated: 9 min 7 sec ago
Rain
79 °F
Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 14 mph from the NW
Pressure: 29.57 in (Falling)
Visibility: 2.5 miles
UV: 5 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 7000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 ft
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1638. Levi32
Quoting washingaway:
Actually, the Nam was on this storm for week or more, long before the GFS. The NAM may not suck as bad as so many think.


No, the NAM sucks lol. It was feeding back 93L into a tropical storm south of Hispaniola, which is what you're talking about. I don't call that a good forecast.
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are any models showing a storm hitting the central gulf coast july4th
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Quoting washingaway:
Actually, the Nam was on this storm for week or more, long before the GFS. The NAM may not suck as bad as so many think.
NAM is the wrf model.
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18Z Early Cycle continue to shift south.

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what do mode runs show for 94L looks like 94L hasdone alittle better this PM
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1632. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting kuppenskup:
On the Invest what happens after 99L? What sequence do they go to after that?
RESTART COMMENCES BACK 90LTO99L/90LTO99L/90LTO99L
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gamma, Alex was a landcane before he became anything. Now we have a second one about to roll off the African coast. Could this be a tell tale sign as to how the season is going to go considering how active its supposed to be? Every other wave becoming a land cyclone before rolling off, coc and such in the middle.
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Quoting Joanie38:
Hello everyone..I have a question..hopefully it ain't a stupid one....When a system stalls or halts completely, does it mean its about to turn a different direction??? Thanks in advance :)

Joanie


Yeah, Joanie, they tend to slow before a course correction
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Looks like NHC and the models are not "buying" the longwave mid-level trough digging over SW U.S. That might be a wrap for this storm (Alex) as far as U.S. interests are concerned.
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Actually, the Nam was on this storm for week or more, long before the GFS. The NAM may not suck as bad as so many think.
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I'm out. Will give Alex a few hours inland and then see how its doing.

Bye for now.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
DAMN! Ghana wins. Got to wait another 4 years...


Good to see an African team advance though. Football matters a lot more to them than US in general.
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1624. Levi32
The NAM has many issues with the tropics. It isn't even initializing correctly. Its 6-hour forecast has Alex's center far to the north of where it will actually be.

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Copy then paste 28.7n88.4w, TAM, MOB, PBI, SAL, 16.5N83.5W, 16.6N83.7W, 16.7N84.4W, 16.5N84.5W, 16.9N84.9W, 17.0N85.3W, 17.3N86.1W, 17.5N87.2W-17.3N87.8W, BZE into the GreatCircleMapper.
The red line shows the heading based on the last two positions. Below the map shows:
TSAlex's center had a heading of 250.9degrees (WestSouthWest),
and traveled a distance of ~42miles* (~68kilometres) over three 3hours.

Though TSAlex's mass is moving at 12mph, its center relocated at ~13mph (~23kph). TSAlex's center has nearly halved its previous travel speed.

* A bit different than the calculation for a "spherical Earth". But the Earth is a slightly oblate spheroid -- a "squashed ball" -- and the site uses the official navigational geometry before rounding.
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Quoting Snowlover123:
Alright guys, tropicfreak, the troll is signing off. Bye.



I do not think you are a troll.. have a good evening.
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I was thinking about visiting Belize this fall. Hope they make it through this ok.
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1620. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
01L/TS/ALEX
MARK
17.2N/88.3W
(OVERLAND)
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Ghana 2 USA 1 F/ET
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Alright guys, tropicfreak, the troll is signing off. Bye.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
why is the GFS wunderground showing a storm on july 4th hitting the central gulf coast
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Quoting btwntx08:

well this one is much north then the 12z and its stronger and feels the trough so who knows
You just want the system to come to where you live.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
On the Invest what happens after 99L? What sequence do they go to after that?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
DAMN! Ghana wins. Got to wait another 4 years...


Dang.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
thanks.. this storm does really look good right now as it is ready to make landfall...
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1609. Levi32
Quoting seflagamma:


So it was not morning NE. I knew I could not see that happening on what I was looking at.

and now Texas is out...but I would not count on that 100% either, especially south Texas.

Wonder if land and the westward moving of Alex will be its swansong?

We have a bunch of young teenage boys here?
I had no idea! LOL


I think this is going into Mexico somewhere, but if it gets far enough north, southern Texas may still get lashed with tropical storm conditions as the circulation is quite large. If it gets up to 25N Texas will still get a beating, but a direct hit on them is unlikely. The possibility still exists, however.
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DAMN! Ghana wins. Got to wait another 4 years...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1607. xcool
I SEE Alex shift north COME SOON
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1606. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting btwntx08:
like i said before lol they may shift north


WOW
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting btwntx08:
like i said before lol they may shift north


link to this please?
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1603. WAHA
I got to go. A new Wavetrak image appeared, and now it's time to track on my Google Earth.
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The CMC and NAM, some ensembles are showing a stronger trough. StormW, Levi indicated that the trough looks deeper on the water vapor image. I give Texas a 40% of getting hit, Northern Mexico 70%, southern Mexico 60%, Alex dieing in the Yucatan? 20%
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I hope they prepared for this in Belize. A strengthening system coming on shore there close to Cat 1 status is going to do a lot of damage and cause significant flooding.
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Quoting btwntx08:
like i said before lol they may shift north


NAM sucks. ECMWF owns this system.
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1599. IKE
Quoting seflagamma:


So it was not morning NE. I knew I could not see that happening on what I was looking at.

and now Texas is out...but I would not count on that 100% either, especially south Texas.

Wonder if land and the westward moving of Alex will be it's swansong?


It could be...although unlikely.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.