Tropical Storm Alex bears down on the Yucatan; extreme heat for Africa and Russia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on June 26, 2010

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The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 is here. Tropical Storm Alex formed last might from an African tropical wave that plowed through the Caribbean this week. Alex's formation location is a typical one for June tropical storms, and the formation date of June 25 is also a fairly typical date for the first storm of the season to form (we average about one June named storm every two years in the Atlantic.) Heavy rainfall will ramp up through the day in Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as Alex continues to intensify, and flooding from these heavy rains will be the main concern from Alex today and Sunday. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorm are growing in intensity and areal coverage at a respectable pace. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over the storm, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is not a problem for Alex. We currently don't have a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm, so we will have to wait until 2pm this afternoon to get an updated estimate of Alex's surface winds. The latest satellite estimates of Alex's winds at 8am EDT put the storm's strongest winds at 40 mph.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the tropics at 9am EDT Saturday 6/26/10. Image credit: GOES Science Project.

Forecast for Alex
As I discussed in last night's post, an examination of the nineteen tropical cyclones that have formed in the Western Caribbean and hit the Yucatan Peninsula over the past twenty years reveals that 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. The ones that died all took a more southerly path across the Yucatan, spending more time over land than Alex will. Alex is large enough and moving far enough north across the Yucatan that passage over the peninsula will not kill it. So, will Alex follow the path climatology says is more likely, and make a second landfall along the Mexican Gulf Coast?


Figure 2. Forecast swath of tropical storm force winds (34 - 63 knots, green colors) and hurricane force winds (yellow and orange colors) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA GFDL team.

The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. Some of yesterday's model runs predicted that this trough would be strong enough to pull Alex northwards through the oil slick region into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. However, the models that were predicting this (the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models) are all backing off on that prediction. It now appears likely that Alex will cross the Yucatan, emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, then slow down as the trough to its north weakens the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. By Tuesday, the influence of the trough will wane, high pressure will build in, and Alex will resume a west-northwest, or possibly a due west or west-southwest motion, towards the Texas/Mexico border region. Based on the current trends in the models, Alex's tropical storm force winds are likely to stay well south of the oil slick region (Figure 2.) I put the odds of Alex bringing tropical storm-force winds to the oil slick region at 10%. The most significant impact Alex will likely have on the oil slick region is to bring 2 - 4 foot swells that may wash oil over some of the containment booms. These swells will reach the oil slick region on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Continued intensification of Alex is likely today, up until landfall. It is a good thing the storm waited until last night to get organized; had it formed a day earlier, it could have easily been a hurricane in the Western Caribbean today. Once Alex emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, it will likely take the storm at least 24 hours to get re-organized, particularly since the total ocean heat content is low for the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf next week, and it appears that Alex will have time to intensify into a hurricane before making its second landfall along the South Texas/northern Mexico coast. Wind shear is expected to be light, and dry air not a significant impediment. Most of the models are calling for landfall on Wednesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this delayed until Thursday. I give Alex a 60% chance of becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) is a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, and is not a threat to develop today. However, by Monday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. None of the models currently develop 94L, but Bermuda should keep and eye on this system, as it will pass very close to the island on Tuesday.

Extreme heat wave in Africa and Asia continues to set all-time high temperature records
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered continues to smash all-time high temperatures Asia and Africa. As I reported earlier this week, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Niger, Pakistan, and Myanmar have all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time over the past six weeks. The remarkable heat continued over Africa and Asia late this week. The Asian portion of Russia recorded its highest temperate in history yesterday, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004. (The record for European Russia is 43.8°C--110.8°F--set on August 6, 1940, at Alexandrov Gaj near the border with Kazakhstan.) Also, on Thursday, Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

We've now had eight countries in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. This includes Asia's hottest temperature of all-time, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the only year which can compare is 2003, when six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this summer's heat wave in Asia and Africa are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The long range outlook shows a continuation of east to southeast winds along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting at least one update on Alex this weekend. My next update will be Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Been in Galveston today, water is emeral green/blue mix, beautiful weather, thunderheads way out in the Gulf, perfect summer day.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Parallel (new) 18Z GFS 138 hrs


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Quoting Hurricanes101:


If there are wind observations that support it, NHC could still upgrade to a hurricane at 8pm
Possible, but highly unlikely. I do think that Alex will remain as TS over the Yucatan though.
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1946. xcool
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Radar%20Loop%20250km.htm



go here
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting RitaEvac:
This is concerning for me, but lets see tomm's runs...



A lot of people throw out the NAM, but if the trough is stronger than expected (and I think it currently is), then that might be right..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


LOL! I hear ya! been around 95-96 with a Heat Index of 102 at my house.


Ewwww I reckon it's about the same here. I haven't bothered even looking and I'm seriously avoiding going outdoors as of late. Ahh going to school online is the best, I welcome the A/C. So Storm, when do you think would be the most active month for this hurricane season?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NAM is good at forecasting where moisture will go and pretty decent at track.


Yes good for moisture, but in my opinion bad for track. Just as the CMC has recently been good with track but bad with intensity... every model has its shortcomings (except for the euro that is)
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1942. xcool
lmao he stall off cost
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

am gussing 94L is this hot air then???



what do the mode runs show on it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


yes, a vigorous wave with a low level circulation over W Africa which the GFS and other models have been developing.

I commented on it this morning.

Low level circulation? 850mb vorticity is barely non-existent.
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Wonder if the 00z will hold with a similar solution
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1937. jo336
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well welcome to the blog! I'm sure you've learned a lot from the many smart people on here.


thanks for the welcome and yes I have learned from people here
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Isn't it already in the process of making landfall?



He said could have easily became, not could easily become.
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Quoting Weather456:
Alex could of easily became a hurricane before landfall, awesome sat presentations



If there are wind observations that support it, NHC could still upgrade to a hurricane at 8pm
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
1933. beell
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Does that graphic show thunderstorms in the Great Lakes?


Any thunder would/should be east of the trough. Like maybe New York. Maybe some rain.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hey 456,glad to see you again. What is your impression of that circulation inside Africa that ECMWF and GFS pick up?


It was in this morning's tropical update. I think it has a good chance of becoming Bonnie.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
This is concerning for me, but lets see tomm's runs...

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Quoting Weather456:
A storm like Emily or Dean can follow a steady path across the Peninsula. Tropical storms however, are subject to shifts since their circulations are not as solid - Dolly and Cindy.


And even a Category 4 cane (Keith) got sent off in a different direction:

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting Weather456:
Alex could of easily became a hurricane before landfall, awesome sat presentations



Isn't it already in the process of making landfall?

Quoting btwntx08:
seems if the gfs is stalling the system for a while then tries to move west a tiny bit here it is at hr 120


The ridge squashes Alex, and splits it in two. You can sea that the eastern part is stronger than the main storm in that model run. Is it the lower-level storm moving west and the upper-level portion being sheared northeast, or vice versa?

Quoting Joanie38:
Our local mets from Lake Charles had said that Alex is more than likely gonna pass us up due to the front from the north going southwards and that will push Alex away from us. Again..no one knows for sure, I am gonna wait til it goes into the GOM...that is IF it goes into the GOM...


The Bay of Campeche is still part of the Gulf. But if the storm actually approaches Louisiana, the trough could send it towards Florida or the ridge could send it towards Texas.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2836
Quoting GlobalWarming:
456, do you see anything behind Alex?


yes, a vigorous wave with a low level circulation over W Africa which the GFS and other models have been developing.

I commented on it this morning.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1926. xcool
hmmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
GFS 18Z land the Storm between Coprpus Christi and Houston as low pressure 1000mb circle
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
Quoting MrstormX:
18z NAM now brings it back to Texas as well

NAM is good at forecasting where moisture will go and pretty decent at track.
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I have plotted my best guess based on models since this thing became Invest and each day, the location of the storm and overall model consensus has shifted left each time. I think we will see this trend continue (more left).
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News will come and say "oh storm is going to Mexico our chances have significantly lowered from the threat of ALex" then Monday AM oh no models have it coming to Corpus now...
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
A storm like Emily or Dean can follow a steady path across the Peninsula. Tropical storms however, are subject to shifts since their circulations are not as solid - Dolly and Cindy.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting MississippiWx:


GFS and NAM moved north towards TX. Could be the start of a trend because of that deepening trof. However, they are 18z model runs, which are typically the most unreliable. Like I said, will be glad to eat my words if it ends up going that far north.
I would still pay attention to them even though they are the worst, just don't base a forecast on them. Let's see what the 00z run brings us later.
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Hey 456,glad to see you again. What is your impression of that circulation inside Africa that ECMWF and GFS pick up?
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I guess we'll just have to see if the 00z runs stick with/revert to the MX solution or if this run of the GFS is onto something. I have been telling people off line that we won't know for sure about the CONUS until tomorrow evening. Looks like that could be very true.
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Quoting StormW:


Good! How about you?


A bit on the tired side, but can't complain. Wish the heat would die down here. But hey that's what I get for living in "paradise."
18z NAM now brings it back to Texas as well

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1912. WAHA
Quoting RitaEvac:
Yucatan could maroon Alex NW, always seem to throw tropical systems off into different directions, we'll see

You kidding? I hope not. That's close to the correct answer.
1911. Wots


Good evening to all
Waves with lots of spin at 0º in Africa.

back to lurking :-)
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Models always overdue the ridges, saw it with Rita, Ike.
That's why they are doing such a southerly track into the BOC. Southern Texas is not safe by any means, imo.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Yucatan could maroon Alex NW, always seem to throw tropical systems off into different directions, we'll see


Which is why something is not accounting for friction and center relocations. I do not think computers model land surfaces very well.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting RitaEvac:
Yucatan could maroon Alex NW, always seem to throw tropical systems off into different directions, we'll see


GFS and NAM moved north towards TX. Could be the start of a trend because of that deepening trof. However, they are 18z model runs, which are typically the most unreliable. Like I said, will be glad to eat my words if it ends up going that far north.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Did the 18Z GFS initialize Alex slightly too far north?

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Quoting jo336:
I'm a first time poster from central florida, lurked for a long while before joining. Always check in here and there to see what's happening.
Well welcome to the blog! I'm sure you've learned a lot from the many smart people on here.
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Quoting Weather456:
The storm should gain latitude as the trough rides north of it. A deep layer ridge replaces the trough after it passes forcing Alex back west. I am a bit surprise that the models are giving this ridge alot of forcing power.


Models always overdue the ridges, saw it with Rita, Ike.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
1903. nolajet
Quoting Jeff9641:


New GFS is interesting..I wonder what the models will do later after seeing the GFS. It does show this coming back north as the trough approaches.


Interesting is right. I honestly wasn't expecting to see that on this run. I had to go back to the beginning of the loop to make sure I was even looking at the 18z.
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i'm with xcool on this. an extreme close up on alex through visible and its plain to see
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Yes GFS 18Z 123hours put the storm in front of Corpus Christi
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
Quoting beell:
Here is one look at the trough centered over the Great Lakes with some energy digging a little into the SE. No western trough. Nuttin' but ridge. If Alex would have came off the northern end of the Yucatan-mabe a diiferent story.

Valid Wednesday 00Z


Link


Does that graphic show thunderstorms in the Great Lakes?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2836
Our local mets from Lake Charles had said that Alex is more than likely gonna pass us up due to the front from the north going southwards and that will push Alex away from us. Again..no one knows for sure, I am gonna wait til it goes into the GOM...that is IF it goes into the GOM...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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