Tropical Storm Alex bears down on the Yucatan; extreme heat for Africa and Russia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on June 26, 2010

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The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 is here. Tropical Storm Alex formed last might from an African tropical wave that plowed through the Caribbean this week. Alex's formation location is a typical one for June tropical storms, and the formation date of June 25 is also a fairly typical date for the first storm of the season to form (we average about one June named storm every two years in the Atlantic.) Heavy rainfall will ramp up through the day in Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as Alex continues to intensify, and flooding from these heavy rains will be the main concern from Alex today and Sunday. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorm are growing in intensity and areal coverage at a respectable pace. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over the storm, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is not a problem for Alex. We currently don't have a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm, so we will have to wait until 2pm this afternoon to get an updated estimate of Alex's surface winds. The latest satellite estimates of Alex's winds at 8am EDT put the storm's strongest winds at 40 mph.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the tropics at 9am EDT Saturday 6/26/10. Image credit: GOES Science Project.

Forecast for Alex
As I discussed in last night's post, an examination of the nineteen tropical cyclones that have formed in the Western Caribbean and hit the Yucatan Peninsula over the past twenty years reveals that 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. The ones that died all took a more southerly path across the Yucatan, spending more time over land than Alex will. Alex is large enough and moving far enough north across the Yucatan that passage over the peninsula will not kill it. So, will Alex follow the path climatology says is more likely, and make a second landfall along the Mexican Gulf Coast?


Figure 2. Forecast swath of tropical storm force winds (34 - 63 knots, green colors) and hurricane force winds (yellow and orange colors) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA GFDL team.

The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. Some of yesterday's model runs predicted that this trough would be strong enough to pull Alex northwards through the oil slick region into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. However, the models that were predicting this (the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models) are all backing off on that prediction. It now appears likely that Alex will cross the Yucatan, emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, then slow down as the trough to its north weakens the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. By Tuesday, the influence of the trough will wane, high pressure will build in, and Alex will resume a west-northwest, or possibly a due west or west-southwest motion, towards the Texas/Mexico border region. Based on the current trends in the models, Alex's tropical storm force winds are likely to stay well south of the oil slick region (Figure 2.) I put the odds of Alex bringing tropical storm-force winds to the oil slick region at 10%. The most significant impact Alex will likely have on the oil slick region is to bring 2 - 4 foot swells that may wash oil over some of the containment booms. These swells will reach the oil slick region on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Continued intensification of Alex is likely today, up until landfall. It is a good thing the storm waited until last night to get organized; had it formed a day earlier, it could have easily been a hurricane in the Western Caribbean today. Once Alex emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, it will likely take the storm at least 24 hours to get re-organized, particularly since the total ocean heat content is low for the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf next week, and it appears that Alex will have time to intensify into a hurricane before making its second landfall along the South Texas/northern Mexico coast. Wind shear is expected to be light, and dry air not a significant impediment. Most of the models are calling for landfall on Wednesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this delayed until Thursday. I give Alex a 60% chance of becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) is a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, and is not a threat to develop today. However, by Monday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. None of the models currently develop 94L, but Bermuda should keep and eye on this system, as it will pass very close to the island on Tuesday.

Extreme heat wave in Africa and Asia continues to set all-time high temperature records
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered continues to smash all-time high temperatures Asia and Africa. As I reported earlier this week, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Niger, Pakistan, and Myanmar have all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time over the past six weeks. The remarkable heat continued over Africa and Asia late this week. The Asian portion of Russia recorded its highest temperate in history yesterday, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004. (The record for European Russia is 43.8°C--110.8°F--set on August 6, 1940, at Alexandrov Gaj near the border with Kazakhstan.) Also, on Thursday, Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

We've now had eight countries in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. This includes Asia's hottest temperature of all-time, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the only year which can compare is 2003, when six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this summer's heat wave in Asia and Africa are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The long range outlook shows a continuation of east to southeast winds along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting at least one update on Alex this weekend. My next update will be Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Drak would not of been banned for a spelling error. He has a life. It's a Saturday. Come on!!!
People were saying he was JFV and then he started calling the blog ridiculous and all that stuff. Ok. Now back to Alex.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's only for permanent bans not 24 hour bans.


That's what I was thinking, that's why I added the last part.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2147. srada
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Drak would not of been banned for a spelling error. He has a life. It's a Saturday. Come on!!!


Exactly!! LOL!!
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Quoting jlp09550:


Latest imagery.


What is that explosive burst of what I believe you people call convection to the nw of the coc in the sat? Is it just that, a rebuildup of convection as the bands move back out over the warmer water? Or is it something more interesting?



Lurker for like 3-4 years woo.
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2145. scott39
Has Alexs COC went on shore yet?
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2144. Makoto1
Question for anyone interested: Am I reading the NHC discussion right? Usually the right front quadrant is the strongest but they said the strongest winds are south of the center this time. That doesn't seem quite normal... And I'm also guessing that'll bring the worst into Belize City.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Link

Drak's blog is still here.. but I don't know if that means anything lol. When JFV was banned his blog was gone so... I don't know if your blog gets taken off for little short bans though.
That's only for permanent bans not 24 hour bans.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
could the trof be having an effect on alex already?
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2140. will45
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Link

Drak's blog is still here.. but I don't know if that means anything lol. When JFV was banned his blog was gone so... I don't know if your blog gets taken off for little short bans though.
em>


if it is just a 24hr ban your blog wont go down
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Drak would not of been banned for a spelling error. He has a life. It's a Saturday. Come on!!!
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For a land-falling tropical storm, Alex looks darn good.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
Link

Drak's blog is still here.. but I don't know if that means anything lol. When JFV was banned his blog was gone so... I don't know if your blog gets taken off for little short bans though.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
I see perhaps a tad north of due west.
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Quoting TerraNova:


Hmm, weird, doesn't work in Firefox, only in IE. Thanks!

The center appears to be making landfall just north of Belize City. If you look closely you can see half of an eyewall to its south.



Anytime.

With an eyewall like that, do you think Alex could be a hurricane?
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting Snowlover123:


Yeah. I agree with a Cat. 1 maybe a Cat. 2



Same...
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2130. USSINS
2102. Nice post, TN. Thanks.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Drak was not banned.
Then why wouldn't he be on the day that Alex is making landfall?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
Quoting MrstormX:
18z HWRF


Did that shift North or South from where it was before?
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
2127. Makoto1
Quoting TerraNova:
Can anybody else get the loop on this page to work?


Loop is back up now, seems to be aiming right at Belize City.

I'm not sure if I'm sold on the trough picking up Alex enough to reach Texas either... I'm thinking it should pass Alex by fast enough to be a Mexico event.
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Quoting TerraNova:
Can anybody else get the loop on this page to work?


Works here..:)
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Yep.

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Latestloop.gif


Hmm, weird, doesn't work in Firefox, only in IE. Thanks!

The center appears to be making landfall just north of Belize City. If you look closely you can see half of an eyewall to its south.

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Quoting Makoto1:


I agree on the getting lucky part, but I think it's still just barely offshore from looking at radar and satellite.
Yeah I seems that landfall will be soon, looking at radar there seems to be rotation off the coast.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
Drak was not banned.
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could the trof have anything to do with the storm slowing or possibly stalling?
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Quoting MrstormX:


Im kinda agree with the track, but the intensity is extreme... a major hurricane, blah


Yeah. I agree with a Cat. 1 maybe a Cat. 2

Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Those last two movements are interesting. During it's last moments of water it speeds up and goes WSW, then right before landfall it slows down and heads WNW to NW, and ends. I think it ended on that little "jog" though, so don't get excited lol.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Ok, is my eyes deceiving me or has it started a NW motion?? Correct me if I am wrong please..:)
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18z HWRF
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Quoting Seastep:


That's not so silly track-wise, really. And intensity always should be taken with a grain of salt on these types of models. But, Alex has a lot of energy atm.


I kinda agree with the track, but the intensity is extreme... a major hurricane, blah
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Quoting TerraNova:
Can anybody else get the loop on this page to work?


Yep.

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Latestloop.gif
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
2114. Makoto1
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Considering that the 8PM advisory is so close I wouldn't be surprised that they just say it there. Also, Belize got lucky, usually cyclones make landfall at night for some reason.


I agree on the getting lucky part, but I think it's still just barely offshore from looking at radar and satellite.
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Can anybody else get the loop on this page to work?
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Quoting reedzone:


I'm waiting till tonights models, I'm looking for the center to relocate tomorrow. GFS, CMC, NAM have Alex headed to Texas, while other have it westward to Mexico. GFDL, NOGAPS, HWRF yet to come.. It'll be interesting to see what they show in a few minutes.


Lol, the suspense is killing me! :D

Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting ElConando:
Strange still no report of landfall by NHC. NHC usually puts a special report on landfall. Unless they only do it on land falling systems in the United States.


I honestly dont think its made landfall yet. Looks to me that the eye ((It had a partial eye wall in the making)) is between Belize and the island that can be seen on the floater.

Link
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2108. Seastep
Quoting MrstormX:
My point exactly about the reliability of the GFS, and its branch models is that they are inaccurate. Take for example this 18z DGEX run:



Its completely illogical, people on here complain about the CMC being bad but when you see something like this it makes you appreciate other models. I mean come on 962mb, from a system thats not even heading near Texas yet... its silly.


That's not so silly track-wise, really. And intensity always should be taken with a grain of salt on these types of models. But, Alex has a lot of energy atm.
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Quoting ElConando:


He must be as mad as hornets if that happened.
Go back to Friday mornings blog, you'll see it there. Anyways, back to the tropics.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Seems to be firing some convection on the western side of the Yucatan.


Could be big enough to keep itself from weakening very quickly. Still it will prolong the inevitable if it does not gain a northerly component in the next 12 hours.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting ElConando:
Strange still no report of landfall by NHC. NHC usually puts a special report on landfall. Unless they only do it on land falling systems in the United States.
Considering that the 8PM advisory is so close I wouldn't be surprised that they just say it there. Also, Belize got lucky, usually cyclones make landfall at night for some reason.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
Quoting reedzone:


I'm waiting till tonights models, I'm looking for the center to relocate tomorrow. GFS, CMC, NAM have Alex headed to Texas, while other have it westward to Mexico. GFDL, NOGAPS, HWRF yet to come.. It'll be interesting to see what they show in a few minutes.


Agreed reedzone ..:)
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jmo but i think i still see the coc offshore.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There were a lot of problems with people cursing and stuff during the afternoon. Also people started accusing Drak of being JFV because he said "teh" and he probably got banned, lol. It was a long day on Friday.


The blog teaming up against Drak? Wow, must have really been a long day.

Anyway, interesting microwave imagery from Alex, looks like it didn't manage to close off an eye but it wasn't far from it at all. Hot towers still firing within the CDO, circulation remains broad (notice spiral convection already firing on the other side of the Yucatan).

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There were a lot of problems with people cursing and stuff during the afternoon. Also people started accusing Drak of being JFV because he said "teh" and he probably got banned, lol. It was a long day on Friday.


Well, I don;t mind when the blog is like this, and some people, (I forget who) were being inappropriate and were talking about Apple Sauce, (or was the 92L?) I forget. But it was pretty hectic that day.

Where do you think Alex will go? I have my bets, after viewing the latest models shifting North, on South Texas/Northern Mexico.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There were a lot of problems with people cursing and stuff during the afternoon. Also people started accusing Drak of being JFV because he said "teh" and he probably got banned, lol. It was a long day on Friday.


He must be as mad as hornets if that happened.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting jlp09550:


Latest imagery.
Seems to be firing some convection on the western side of the Yucatan.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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