Tropical Storm Alex bears down on the Yucatan; extreme heat for Africa and Russia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on June 26, 2010

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The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 is here. Tropical Storm Alex formed last might from an African tropical wave that plowed through the Caribbean this week. Alex's formation location is a typical one for June tropical storms, and the formation date of June 25 is also a fairly typical date for the first storm of the season to form (we average about one June named storm every two years in the Atlantic.) Heavy rainfall will ramp up through the day in Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as Alex continues to intensify, and flooding from these heavy rains will be the main concern from Alex today and Sunday. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorm are growing in intensity and areal coverage at a respectable pace. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over the storm, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is not a problem for Alex. We currently don't have a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm, so we will have to wait until 2pm this afternoon to get an updated estimate of Alex's surface winds. The latest satellite estimates of Alex's winds at 8am EDT put the storm's strongest winds at 40 mph.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the tropics at 9am EDT Saturday 6/26/10. Image credit: GOES Science Project.

Forecast for Alex
As I discussed in last night's post, an examination of the nineteen tropical cyclones that have formed in the Western Caribbean and hit the Yucatan Peninsula over the past twenty years reveals that 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. The ones that died all took a more southerly path across the Yucatan, spending more time over land than Alex will. Alex is large enough and moving far enough north across the Yucatan that passage over the peninsula will not kill it. So, will Alex follow the path climatology says is more likely, and make a second landfall along the Mexican Gulf Coast?


Figure 2. Forecast swath of tropical storm force winds (34 - 63 knots, green colors) and hurricane force winds (yellow and orange colors) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA GFDL team.

The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. Some of yesterday's model runs predicted that this trough would be strong enough to pull Alex northwards through the oil slick region into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. However, the models that were predicting this (the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models) are all backing off on that prediction. It now appears likely that Alex will cross the Yucatan, emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, then slow down as the trough to its north weakens the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. By Tuesday, the influence of the trough will wane, high pressure will build in, and Alex will resume a west-northwest, or possibly a due west or west-southwest motion, towards the Texas/Mexico border region. Based on the current trends in the models, Alex's tropical storm force winds are likely to stay well south of the oil slick region (Figure 2.) I put the odds of Alex bringing tropical storm-force winds to the oil slick region at 10%. The most significant impact Alex will likely have on the oil slick region is to bring 2 - 4 foot swells that may wash oil over some of the containment booms. These swells will reach the oil slick region on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Continued intensification of Alex is likely today, up until landfall. It is a good thing the storm waited until last night to get organized; had it formed a day earlier, it could have easily been a hurricane in the Western Caribbean today. Once Alex emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, it will likely take the storm at least 24 hours to get re-organized, particularly since the total ocean heat content is low for the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf next week, and it appears that Alex will have time to intensify into a hurricane before making its second landfall along the South Texas/northern Mexico coast. Wind shear is expected to be light, and dry air not a significant impediment. Most of the models are calling for landfall on Wednesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this delayed until Thursday. I give Alex a 60% chance of becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) is a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, and is not a threat to develop today. However, by Monday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. None of the models currently develop 94L, but Bermuda should keep and eye on this system, as it will pass very close to the island on Tuesday.

Extreme heat wave in Africa and Asia continues to set all-time high temperature records
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered continues to smash all-time high temperatures Asia and Africa. As I reported earlier this week, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Niger, Pakistan, and Myanmar have all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time over the past six weeks. The remarkable heat continued over Africa and Asia late this week. The Asian portion of Russia recorded its highest temperate in history yesterday, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004. (The record for European Russia is 43.8°C--110.8°F--set on August 6, 1940, at Alexandrov Gaj near the border with Kazakhstan.) Also, on Thursday, Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

We've now had eight countries in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. This includes Asia's hottest temperature of all-time, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the only year which can compare is 2003, when six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this summer's heat wave in Asia and Africa are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The long range outlook shows a continuation of east to southeast winds along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting at least one update on Alex this weekend. My next update will be Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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2199. xcool
reedzone////MODELS caught onto NW MORE TO COME.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
2198. beell
18Z GFDL lines up well with the 18Z GFS global of course.

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2195. centex
It's going to be harder to track over land as it weakens. Already looks to be weakening as approaching landfall. Will HH's fly in over Mexico?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
GFDL 18z 114 Hours

Category 2 hurricane.



Looks like a 3 to me.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2193. IKE
I think you can throw that GFDL run out. It shows Alex turning NNW almost immediately.

That doesn't jive with......

"AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
ON THIS
TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THIS EVENING...MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR SUNDAY EVENING."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALEX 01L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.1 87.5 280./11.1
6 17.2 88.0 272./ 4.4
12 17.8 88.5 320./ 8.7
18 18.7 89.2 320./10.5
24 19.5 90.0 317./11.4
30 20.2 90.4 333./ 7.9
36 20.6 90.8 313./ 4.8
42 21.2 90.8 354./ 6.1
48 21.8 91.0 341./ 6.8
54 22.4 91.3 338./ 6.2
60 23.2 91.3 354./ 7.7
66 24.0 91.8 328./ 9.1
72 24.7 92.2 338./ 7.8
78 25.5 92.7 329./ 9.6
84 26.0 93.1 316./ 6.6
90 26.8 93.9 314./ 9.6
96 27.2 94.6 305./ 7.7
102 27.5 94.9 309./ 4.2
108 27.8 95.3 308./ 4.6
114 28.3 95.6 330./ 5.9
120 28.9 95.9 332./ 6.2
126 29.6 96.1 342./ 7.1




HOUR:102.0 LONG: -94.90 LAT: 27.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.75 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.08
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -95.29 LAT: 27.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.25 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.84
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -95.59 LAT: 28.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.24 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 92.08
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -95.89 LAT: 28.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.49
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -96.11 LAT: 29.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.29 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.04

That puts it near Freeport, TX @ 126 hrs. Have a hard time buying into that at this point.
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2191. will45
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
GFDL 18z 114 Hours

Category 2 hurricane.

Still has that spinoff on the east coast also
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
GFDL 18z 114 Hours

Category 2 hurricane.



Cat 3 actually.
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18z GFDL has moved north. Still awaiting HWRF.

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Quoting StormW:


Knock it off! LOL!!!


LOL! Hang in there Storm. Al's driving us all nuts. :)
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2186. A4Guy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Are there casters for everything? It's only a matter of time before the "smartcasters" or the "goodcasters".


Absolutely plenty of smartcasters and goodcasters on here.......you gotta wade through a lot of other "casters" to find them though. : )
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2185. xcool
reedzone YOU SEE THAT TO.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting StormW:


Knock it off! LOL!!!


I think it is safe to say GFDL is living in a fantasy world that most likely won't come to a fruition. A cat 3 hitting Mexico is unlikely but still has a snowballs chance but for it to it SE Texas, no way!
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 262331
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...ALEX NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INTO
NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM TELA EASTWARD TO LIMON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM TELA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF HONDURAS
AND GUATEMALA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THIS EVENING...MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR SUNDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST AFTER ALEX MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Quoting Joanie38:


Didn't the NHC say it's suppose to stall or slow down in the GOM???


I think that was when steering was more uncertain and models were split on direction.
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GFDL 18z 114 Hours

Category 2 hurricane.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Snowlover123:


Anytime.

With an eyewall like that, do you think Alex could be a hurricane?


I'd say it's done strengthening for now. But I'm starting to think it won't lose as much steam as they predict it will while crossing the Yucatan, due to its broad size.
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2179. will45
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES

looking at convection on here is fooling a lot of people i think.I understand that completely because it has happened to me
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2178. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALEX 01L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.1 87.5 280./11.1
6 17.2 88.0 272./ 4.4
12 17.8 88.5 320./ 8.7
18 18.7 89.2 320./10.5
24 19.5 90.0 317./11.4
30 20.2 90.4 333./ 7.9
36 20.6 90.8 313./ 4.8
42 21.2 90.8 354./ 6.1
48 21.8 91.0 341./ 6.8
54 22.4 91.3 338./ 6.2
60 23.2 91.3 354./ 7.7
66 24.0 91.8 328./ 9.1
72 24.7 92.2 338./ 7.8
78 25.5 92.7 329./ 9.6
84 26.0 93.1 316./ 6.6
90 26.8 93.9 314./ 9.6
96 27.2 94.6 305./ 7.7
102 27.5 94.9 309./ 4.2
108 27.8 95.3 308./ 4.6
114 28.3 95.6 330./ 5.9
120 28.9 95.9 332./ 6.2
126 29.6 96.1 342./ 7.1




HOUR:102.0 LONG: -94.90 LAT: 27.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.75 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.08
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -95.29 LAT: 27.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.25 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.84
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -95.59 LAT: 28.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.24 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 92.08
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -95.89 LAT: 28.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.49
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -96.11 LAT: 29.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.29 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.04


Why don't you aim it for Houston, nrt!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFDL now in agreement with the northern track.. The new runs are now seeing how deep and strong the trough really is.. Told ya I was basing my forecasts with maps and stuff. I don't wishcast... much. Last year, I went a bit over the line lol.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Maybe he has a real life.
He's on here on days that there is absolutely nothing in the Atlantic, and when there is actually something to watch, he isn't.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting IKE:
18Z GFDL


Becomes a CAT 3 just before landfall on the central coast of TX
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2174. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Knock it off! LOL!!!


LOL. You said it was bad on track though!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2173. xcool
WOWWWWWWWWW GFLD MODELS NOW SEE NW .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
2171. xcool
I FIND LIVE WEB CAM Ambergris Caye WOWWWWWWWWWWW
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Snowlover123:
NOGAPS model is strange. Brings storm almost to Texas, and then brings it to the SW.

View the whole model run here:

http://www.bvipirate.com/NOGAPS.phtml


Thanks Snowlover..:)
Member Since: June 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 505
Quoting srada:
Hi

Could someone post the link for model runs including the ECWMF? I had it in my favorites but It looks like I deleted it by accident..thanks in advance!


Link
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALEX 01L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.1 87.5 280./11.1
6 17.2 88.0 272./ 4.4
12 17.8 88.5 320./ 8.7
18 18.7 89.2 320./10.5
24 19.5 90.0 317./11.4
30 20.2 90.4 333./ 7.9
36 20.6 90.8 313./ 4.8
42 21.2 90.8 354./ 6.1
48 21.8 91.0 341./ 6.8
54 22.4 91.3 338./ 6.2
60 23.2 91.3 354./ 7.7
66 24.0 91.8 328./ 9.1
72 24.7 92.2 338./ 7.8
78 25.5 92.7 329./ 9.6
84 26.0 93.1 316./ 6.6
90 26.8 93.9 314./ 9.6
96 27.2 94.6 305./ 7.7
102 27.5 94.9 309./ 4.2
108 27.8 95.3 308./ 4.6
114 28.3 95.6 330./ 5.9
120 28.9 95.9 332./ 6.2
126 29.6 96.1 342./ 7.1




HOUR:102.0 LONG: -94.90 LAT: 27.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.75 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.08
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -95.29 LAT: 27.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.25 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.84
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -95.59 LAT: 28.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.24 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 92.08
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -95.89 LAT: 28.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.49
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -96.11 LAT: 29.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.29 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.04


Wow, it acknowledges that it's going just over due West right now, but by 12 hours it's going just over NW, and at one point it's heading at 354 which is almost due N.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting scott39:
Intresting, I never read anything before about the high retreating.


i corrected my post, meant to type east
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Quoting tramp96:
I am out of town on a different computer. Can you post the cmc?


Didn't the NHC say it's suppose to stall or slow down in the GOM???
Member Since: June 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 505
2164. IKE
18Z GFDL
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2163. Makoto1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...ALEX NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INTO
NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

Not quite on land yet, though their position's farther south than I expected... 15 miles southeast of Belize City?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Then why wouldn't he be on the day that Alex is making landfall?


Maybe he has a real life.
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Quoting Joanie38:
Ok, is my eyes deceiving me or has it started a NW motion?? Correct me if I am wrong please..:)


I've been seeing that since they said it was moving west. Phew! Not just me. lol
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Quoting A4Guy:
I don't doubt the NHC track at all...and I know some of the "northcasters" might disagree with me (lol) - but it sure looks like Alex wants to cross the Yucatan and stay on land....and barely make it back into GOM.
Are there casters for everything? It's only a matter of time before the "smartcasters" or the "goodcasters".
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
2159. srada
Hi

Could someone post the link for model runs including the ECWMF? I had it in my favorites but It looks like I deleted it by accident..thanks in advance!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2158. scott39
Quoting washingaway:


The high is beginning to retreat to west in reponse to the trof.
Intresting, I never read anything before about the high retreating.
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2157. A4Guy
I don't doubt the NHC track at all...and I know some of the "northcasters" might disagree with me (lol) - but it sure looks like Alex wants to cross the Yucatan and stay on land....and barely make it back into GOM.
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Quoting sarahjola:
could the trof be having an effect on alex already?


The high is beginning to retreat to east in reponse to the trof.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALEX 01L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.1 87.5 280./11.1
6 17.2 88.0 272./ 4.4
12 17.8 88.5 320./ 8.7
18 18.7 89.2 320./10.5
24 19.5 90.0 317./11.4
30 20.2 90.4 333./ 7.9
36 20.6 90.8 313./ 4.8
42 21.2 90.8 354./ 6.1
48 21.8 91.0 341./ 6.8
54 22.4 91.3 338./ 6.2
60 23.2 91.3 354./ 7.7
66 24.0 91.8 328./ 9.1
72 24.7 92.2 338./ 7.8
78 25.5 92.7 329./ 9.6
84 26.0 93.1 316./ 6.6
90 26.8 93.9 314./ 9.6
96 27.2 94.6 305./ 7.7
102 27.5 94.9 309./ 4.2
108 27.8 95.3 308./ 4.6
114 28.3 95.6 330./ 5.9
120 28.9 95.9 332./ 6.2
126 29.6 96.1 342./ 7.1




HOUR:102.0 LONG: -94.90 LAT: 27.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.75 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.08
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -95.29 LAT: 27.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.25 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.84
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -95.59 LAT: 28.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.24 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 92.08
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -95.89 LAT: 28.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.49
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -96.11 LAT: 29.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.29 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.04
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Alright, I have to go guys. Bye!
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NOGAPS is just a plain bad model.


Lol, you got that right.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting Snowlover123:
NOGAPS model is strange. Brings storm almost to Texas, and then brings it to the SW.

http://www.bvipirate.com/www.fnmoc.navy.mil.phtml?page=wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NGP/2010062618/ngp10.prp.0 84.namer.gif

http://www.bvipirate.com/www.fnmoc.navy.mil.phtml?page=wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NGP/2010062618/ngp10.prp.1 20.namer.gif
NOGAPS is just a plain bad model.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
NOGAPS model is strange. Brings storm almost to Texas, and then brings it to the SW.

View the whole model run here:

http://www.bvipirate.com/NOGAPS.phtml
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Drak would not of been banned for a spelling error. He has a life. It's a Saturday. Come on!!!
People were saying he was JFV and then he started calling the blog ridiculous and all that stuff. Ok. Now back to Alex.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.