Tropical Storm Alex bears down on the Yucatan; extreme heat for Africa and Russia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on June 26, 2010

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The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 is here. Tropical Storm Alex formed last might from an African tropical wave that plowed through the Caribbean this week. Alex's formation location is a typical one for June tropical storms, and the formation date of June 25 is also a fairly typical date for the first storm of the season to form (we average about one June named storm every two years in the Atlantic.) Heavy rainfall will ramp up through the day in Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as Alex continues to intensify, and flooding from these heavy rains will be the main concern from Alex today and Sunday. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorm are growing in intensity and areal coverage at a respectable pace. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over the storm, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is not a problem for Alex. We currently don't have a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm, so we will have to wait until 2pm this afternoon to get an updated estimate of Alex's surface winds. The latest satellite estimates of Alex's winds at 8am EDT put the storm's strongest winds at 40 mph.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the tropics at 9am EDT Saturday 6/26/10. Image credit: GOES Science Project.

Forecast for Alex
As I discussed in last night's post, an examination of the nineteen tropical cyclones that have formed in the Western Caribbean and hit the Yucatan Peninsula over the past twenty years reveals that 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. The ones that died all took a more southerly path across the Yucatan, spending more time over land than Alex will. Alex is large enough and moving far enough north across the Yucatan that passage over the peninsula will not kill it. So, will Alex follow the path climatology says is more likely, and make a second landfall along the Mexican Gulf Coast?


Figure 2. Forecast swath of tropical storm force winds (34 - 63 knots, green colors) and hurricane force winds (yellow and orange colors) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA GFDL team.

The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. Some of yesterday's model runs predicted that this trough would be strong enough to pull Alex northwards through the oil slick region into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. However, the models that were predicting this (the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models) are all backing off on that prediction. It now appears likely that Alex will cross the Yucatan, emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, then slow down as the trough to its north weakens the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. By Tuesday, the influence of the trough will wane, high pressure will build in, and Alex will resume a west-northwest, or possibly a due west or west-southwest motion, towards the Texas/Mexico border region. Based on the current trends in the models, Alex's tropical storm force winds are likely to stay well south of the oil slick region (Figure 2.) I put the odds of Alex bringing tropical storm-force winds to the oil slick region at 10%. The most significant impact Alex will likely have on the oil slick region is to bring 2 - 4 foot swells that may wash oil over some of the containment booms. These swells will reach the oil slick region on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Continued intensification of Alex is likely today, up until landfall. It is a good thing the storm waited until last night to get organized; had it formed a day earlier, it could have easily been a hurricane in the Western Caribbean today. Once Alex emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, it will likely take the storm at least 24 hours to get re-organized, particularly since the total ocean heat content is low for the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf next week, and it appears that Alex will have time to intensify into a hurricane before making its second landfall along the South Texas/northern Mexico coast. Wind shear is expected to be light, and dry air not a significant impediment. Most of the models are calling for landfall on Wednesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this delayed until Thursday. I give Alex a 60% chance of becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) is a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, and is not a threat to develop today. However, by Monday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. None of the models currently develop 94L, but Bermuda should keep and eye on this system, as it will pass very close to the island on Tuesday.

Extreme heat wave in Africa and Asia continues to set all-time high temperature records
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered continues to smash all-time high temperatures Asia and Africa. As I reported earlier this week, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Niger, Pakistan, and Myanmar have all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time over the past six weeks. The remarkable heat continued over Africa and Asia late this week. The Asian portion of Russia recorded its highest temperate in history yesterday, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004. (The record for European Russia is 43.8°C--110.8°F--set on August 6, 1940, at Alexandrov Gaj near the border with Kazakhstan.) Also, on Thursday, Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

We've now had eight countries in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. This includes Asia's hottest temperature of all-time, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the only year which can compare is 2003, when six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this summer's heat wave in Asia and Africa are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The long range outlook shows a continuation of east to southeast winds along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting at least one update on Alex this weekend. My next update will be Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting winter123:
When will Alex emerge over water... 3pm? I find it hard to believe it will weaken all the way to 35mph when it looks so good now.
with all due respect I donot see Alex going below a Tropical Stom after crossing Land.... Maybe down to 40-45 MPH winds but thats about it.... Then once in the GOM it does make a Hurricane. Now how big of a Hurricane is uncertain, but look for a hurricane by late Sunday and or into Monday Morning....

As for Ike he has been on here for a long time. I came in here in 2004 but got active in 05 and chated with him then... So Ike is a very good Blogger and great Info....

Taco :o)
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3047. xcool
the break down ridge that why TampaSpin 3
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Huh.. I found my first post.. date look familiar?

90. CybrTeddy 12:20 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
I wonder when Steve Gregory will be updating tonight?
Looking forward to hearing if he thinks this is a S.FL event. My gut really does tell me Central Florida will escape this one too.

But I won't take my eye off of her till she clears the east coast of Florida somewhere.
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I really don't get the NHC forecast track....there is a weakness that a strom the size Alex will for sure fell in my opinion! May be wrong but, i don't see it missing that gap!
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3043. Patrap
Note the 4 distinct Lobes on the Dvorak

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

0245 UTC

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My first serious post saying this, this season.
I think I see an eye!
(Near the notch in the Belize border, last frame)
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3041. bjdsrq
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Ike's one of the longest bloggers on here---since before anyone knew the 2005 hurricane season would be interesting.

The other guy was trolling a few days ago defending the judge who stopped the offshore drilling moratorium---the judge also owning tens of thousands of dollars in oil company stock.


Just to get some thinking outside a narrow scope...

1) Anyone with a IRA or 401k invested in the S&P500 owns oil company stock.
2) Offshore GOM drilling employs 150K people in the US.
3) 52% of all income in Louisana comes from oil & gas industry.
4) 31% of all US domestic oil comes from the GOM.
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Quoting xcool:
firematt255 yep :)


Link

Like THIS....?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Yucatan is flat, but wide---seen several storms look like they were holding together well then falling apart when they get close to crossing. We'll see.


The Northern Yucatan is flat, Alex will be crossing a plateau in the Central Yucatan with elevations up to 500ft. And a hefty mountain range to it's South.
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3038. jpsb
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Your commentary is annoying and your handle "irks" me too.
Lol, ok back to Alex
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3037. xcool
firematt255 yep :)
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I am not a troll, StSimonsIslandGuy. I actually practice law in Judge Feldman's court and I know a little more than you do about the man and the conflicts procedures that are utilized in federal court before a judge is assigned a case. I have been using this site and this blog for a while, I just don't comment that often. I see something in Ike's comments that apparently many of you don't.

MiamiHurricanes09, I don't know what your issue is. I enjoy your comments and find them helpful. You have it together pretty good for a kid the age of my son. Does it bother you that I am a lawyer?
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Quoting fsumet:


If you knew what they were talking about you wouldn't be spewing nonsense. Look at the post above. It shows the vorticity in the northern Gulf. That is what they are talking about.
We can disagree without saying that the other is spewing nonsense. That's more of an attack than a scientific debate. Models.! I don't need no stinkin' models.
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Whats it show, Whats it show, Whats it show?!?!


I can only get it to go up to 24 hours, Link
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weatherman with WDSU here in new orleans said there is a weakness developing near the texas/LA border that some of the models are picking up on and that could possilby allow alex to move further north.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Here's Ike on Dr. Master's 16th blog entry. Comment #25


awh..........how cute, i'ts a little baby blog!
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Thanks to whoever posted this, small interval between images and auto-updating. Bookmark it or something! Link
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Looks similar to Alicia's track.


I no like. Not at all.
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0z GFS is in
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Ike's one of the longest bloggers on here---since before anyone knew the 2005 hurricane season would be interesting.

The other guy was trolling a few days ago defending the judge who stopped the offshore drilling moratorium---the judge also owning tens of thousands of dollars in oil company stock.


Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Here's Ike on Dr. Master's 16th blog entry. Comment #25
Wow. I'm going to try to find my first post.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting winter123:

More interesting than TWC for sure. I'd be ok if this is the future of news reporting.

Yep just a bit fast the speech
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Is that whole "a storm points the way it wants to go" thing work when it's over land? (Stupid question flag: ON!)
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3018. beell
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I can't believe what I read from the NHC by forecaster Brennan. Who the heck does he think he is taking the GFDL and GFS models and not only tossing them, but publically flogging them and calling them spurious. Sheesh. These models have served us well for years. The noive of some people.


The very noive! A human forecaster with years of experience thinking he is smarter than a model. Geesh!
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When will Alex emerge over water... 3pm? I find it hard to believe it will weaken all the way to 35mph when it looks so good now.
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3015. Patrap
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Interesting, the pressure seems to be on a regular up-and-down oscillation with a net downward trend as Alex neared. Anyone know why there is that oscillation?


That would be Night and Day..its a 5 Day Plot
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3014. tramp96
Quoting BaltOCane:
Link

...umm, is this something to be worried about? or just another crazy model doing crazy things?
Looks like a cat 2 into Housten.... tell me I'm wrong please, thank you!
Houston we have a problem
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
GFS has been doing that for a least 2 days
That just shows you what a bad model it is. Thankfully, the upgraded version does not.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting NOLALawyer:
I am not trolling. Maybe I was able to get him on my list, not sure. I really find his commentary annoying (and it is calculated to be so), and his Avatar irks me.

Back to Alex.


You're avatar is annoying. Ike is a great blogger on here. What's your problem?
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Quoting NOLALawyer:
I am not trolling. Maybe I was able to get him on my list, not sure. I really find his commentary annoying (and it is calculated to be so), and his Avatar irks me.

Back to Alex.
Your commentary is annoying and your handle "irks" me too.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Patrap:
Air Pressure Plot Graph from ALEX Passing this Buoy


Interesting, the pressure seems to be on a regular up-and-down oscillation with a net downward trend as Alex neared. Anyone know why there is that oscillation?
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3009. fsumet
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I can't believe what I read from the NHC by forecaster Brennan. Who the heck does he think he is taking the GFDL and GFS models and not only tossing them, but publically flogging them and calling them spurious. Sheesh. These models have served us well for years. The noive of some people.


If you knew what they were talking about you wouldn't be spewing nonsense. Look at the post above. It shows the vorticity in the northern Gulf. That is what they are talking about.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I can't believe what I read from the NHC by forecaster Brennan. Who the heck does he think he is taking the GFDL and GFS models and not only tossing them, but publically flogging them and calling them spurious. Sheesh. The noive of some people.


I would never bash the NHC but, those are 2 of the best most consistent Models over the last few years....MODELS I WOULD NEVER IGNORE!
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Quoting MrNatural:


I did notice the movement. Not sure if that is a one time response to coming ashore or the start of a direction with a more northerly component. Pretty impressive convection, but it does seem to be waning. An indication of how well it was getting organized before it came ashore. I would welcome the rain here in Austin, but I don't think this is meant to be the answer right now.
Yeah convection has waned but that is normal of a landfalling cyclone.
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3005. xcool
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather,
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It is evident when using visible satellite imagery that rather impressive convection, in the -80˚C threshold, is firing over the COC. You will also notice WNW/NW motion.


I did notice the movement. Not sure if that is a one time response to coming ashore or the start of a direction with a more northerly component. Pretty impressive convection, but it does seem to be waning. An indication of how well it was getting organized before it came ashore. I would welcome the rain here in Austin, but I don't think this is meant to be the answer right now.
Member Since: July 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
I can't believe what I read from the NHC by forecaster Brennan. Who the heck does he think he is taking the GFDL and GFS models and not only tossing them, but publically flogging them and calling them spurious. Sheesh. These models have served us well for years. The noive of some people.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.