93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting btwntx08:
3367. IKE 11:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2010
Quoting extreme236:


You seem to be really anxious for this to effect Texas...


I'm rooting for him!

ok but im telling u not so excited with it
Yeah I wouldn't be too excited seeing models pointing a possible hurricane at my backyard.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3367. IKE 11:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2010
Quoting extreme236:


You seem to be really anxious for this to effect Texas...


I'm rooting for him!

ok but im telling u not so excited with it
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Blog Update!

June 25, 2010 - 7:30 PM EDT - First Tropical Depression Develops -
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting centex:
Between recons that is all we have other than local radar, bouy/ship or Sat. It's normal to base upgrade on those.


Yup, but none of those out yet.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

I wouldn't say that , anything is possible storms don't always follow computer models and yes if this becomes strong enough it will in my opinion move more northward , not really buying a NE movement before exiting the Caribbean, but never say never!

The 48 200MB forecast has a zonal east to west flow over the GOM with that trough Levi is counting on over the lower missippi ($@#it) valley which is SOUTH for this time of year..

The Surface winds will be S-SE..according to deep layer/SFC maps but depending on how far west is come of the Yucatan there is less win

So you have shear..a strong storm coming of the yucatan gets picked up by the trough and upper winds and swept east. An early re-curve due to weird late season trough.
A weak storm gets sheared and maybe makes it it LA north texas
A weak mush wanders W-NW into lower texas mexico..
So pick your path..
My bet at this moment is this path.....
$%#@$%GFADSGRHTWEQ$#%$#@%#$%&*TYASDQWER#@#@
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Quoting extreme236:


You seem to be really anxious for this to effect Texas...


I live in NE Mexico so I wouldn't mind at all if the system pays us a visit. Outside we have a scorching 103° :( and no rain in sight.
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Good evening. Would one of you kind people please explain the meaning of a "hot tower?"

Thanks!
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Damn!

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3370. centex
Quoting extreme236:


There really isn't any new data on 01L to upgrade it on. We'll see what the new satellite estimates show.
Between recons that is all we have other than local radar, bouy/ship or Sat. It's normal to base upgrade on those.
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3369. MahFL
Very cold cloud tops now on TD1.
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Quoting extreme236:


You seem to be really anxious for this to effect Texas...

just saying based on where it is it stills has effects for south tx
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3367. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


You seem to be really anxious for this to effect Texas...


I'm rooting for him!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
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Quoting btwntx08:

still has effects for south tx


True, the system is way to big right now for it to have little or non effect on south texas if it were to follow the hwrf solution
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Quoting Drakoen:
I agree with the NHC track considering how spread out the models are:



NHC has no idea where the storm will make landfall.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Continuing to increase in organization..


Holy cowmole, the storm's area spans a good one-half of the Caribbean!!
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Quoting extreme236:


There really isn't any new data on 01L to upgrade it on. We'll see what the new satellite estimates show.
Oh that's right. I'm expecting some 2.0's especially with all these strong convective bursts, plus we are at "stage 1" of a CDO developing.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE...LOCATED ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
COZUMEL MEXICO.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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3360. cg2916
Nothing new:

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
I THOUGHT THIS DESERVED A RE-POST BEFORE I CHECK OUT.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT.... 18z 6-25-2010

I will be back on the blog later to talk about this, later on tonight and to check back in.

You guys take it easy and have a good one :)

The Blog is close to a Record Amount of posts pace wise so POST HARD TONIGHT!

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Still a TD? That's kinda surprising...
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----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 JUN 2010 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 16:31:09 N Lon : 83:36:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1008.2mb/ 31.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.2 2.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -78.0C Cloud Region Temp : -64.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Quoting btwntx08:

still has effects for south tx


You seem to be really anxious for this to effect Texas...
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Quoting centex:
Ever notice that best blogers are absence when we need them? I guess trying to protect there ranking.

Maybe there just creating there new blog because there is a new TD.
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3354. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


WTNT01 KNGU 252201
WARNING ATCN MIL 01L NAT 100625225448

2010062518 01L NONAME 001 01 315 06 SATL 060
T000 169N 0829W 030
T012 174N 0847W 035 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 185N 0865W 040 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 195N 0880W 045 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 210N 0895W 025
T072 230N 0915W 030
T096 240N 0925W 035
T120 250N 0935W 040
AMP
NNNN
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (01L) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (01L) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 82.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 82.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.4N 84.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.5N 86.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.5N 88.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.0N 89.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.0N 91.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.0N 92.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.0N 93.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 83.5W, OR APPROX 323 NM SE OF
COZUMEL, MEXICO.
NO 12 FT. SEAS AT THIS TIME.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260301Z, 260901Z, 261501Z AND 262101Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
0110062018 120N 643W 15
0110062100 127N 654W 20
0110062106 134N 665W 20
0110062112 140N 676W 20
0110062118 145N 688W 25
0110062200 149N 700W 25
0110062206 151N 715W 25
0110062212 153N 729W 25
0110062218 154N 740W 25
0110062300 156N 752W 25
0110062306 157N 763W 25
0110062312 159N 768W 25
0110062318 161N 777W 25
0110062400 162N 782W 25
0110062406 164N 793W 25
0110062412 163N 803W 25
0110062418 162N 810W 25
0110062500 160N 816W 25
0110062506 163N 821W 25
0110062512 165N 825W 30
0110062518 169N 829W 30

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Quoting mtyweatherfan90:
Here is a link to the latest HWRF

Link



Seems like a double-mex event

still has effects for south tx
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still no TS.


There really isn't any new data on 01L to upgrade it on. We'll see what the new satellite estimates show.
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No TS at 8, likely at 11 if it continues at this rate.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
3349. Grothar
WTNT31 KNHC 252346
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 83.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN
GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THERE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.


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Still TD #1 at 8 :(
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
I'm quoting one page per comment and I am just not keeping up at all.
LOL I got up to get me some Ice Tea and Microwave Popcorn and lost about 2 and 1/2 pages.... So I understand that

Taco :o)
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8pm out... still a TD
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3343. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


251806Z JUN 10
FM NMFC
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/NMFC/OVLY2/0087/JUN
OVLY/ATL STORM 01L/251800Z6/JUN/1OF1/TROP DEPRESSION 01L(01L)/METOC
TEXT/12//G/165400N6/0825400W9/D
TEXT/12//G/183000N2/0863000W7/S
TEXT/12//G/210000N3/0893000W0/D
TEXT/12//G/230000N5/0913000W3/D
TEXT/12//G/240000N6/0923000W4/S
TEXT/12//G/250000N7/0933000W5/S
LINE/6//G/165400N6/0825400W9/183000N2/0863000W7/210000N3/0893000W0
/230000N5/0913000W3/240000N6/0923000W4/250000N7/0933000W5
ARC/0/G///183000N2/0863000W7/060NM/060NM
TEXT/12//G/145400N4/0802400W4/TROP DEPRESSION 01L
TEXT/12//G/135400N3/0802400W4/25 JUN 1800Z
TEXT/12//G/125400N2/0802400W4/MAX 30 KT
TEXT/12//G/115400N1/0802400W4/315 AT 06 KT
TEXT/12//G/105400N0/0802400W4/34 KT RADII SHOWN
TEXT/12//G/183000N2/0823000W3/2618Z MAX 40
TEXT/12//G/210000N3/0853000W6/2718Z MAX 25
TEXT/12//G/230000N5/0873000W8/2818Z MAX 30
TEXT/12//G/240000N6/0883000W9/2918Z MAX 35
TEXT/12//G/250000N7/0893000W0/3018Z MAX 40
ENDAT
BT
#0001
NNNN

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3342. cg2916
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...

Not there yet. Come on, there were TS winds on the recon.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Still no TS.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 83.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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Quoting weatherman12345:
will it be a tropical storm at 8:00 advisory
It should be.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
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Intense bursting going on near the center
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http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/myphotos.html?number=13&handle=WeathermanAG#select
Check this out
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3333. centex
Quoting centex:
Ever notice that best blogers are absence when we need them? I guess trying to protect there ranking.
=It's only the wanttobe's at this time.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Usually we see black in the West Pacific where the tropopause is higher allowing cloud tops to extend further into the atmosphere. Truly incredible TD1 can do this and produce such nice spatial area of this dense convection.
Absolutely amazing. Well 8 PM intermediate advisory should bring us Alex.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Here is a link to the latest HWRF

Link



Seems like a double-mex event
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
GFDL 18z 114 hours



that is truly insane! No Way. A GFDL Cat2?
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Quoting btwntx08:
ok are we expecting an intermeddate update??
Yes, next advisory is at 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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