93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:

01L One reads almost OIL One . addiction to oil is very very bad.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats because its going to be one


Thats bold of you lol, although Ican't rule it out with SSTs like this in the gulf.
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Quoting twooks:


When will this be?

They take off at 10:00 pm EST and will take a couple of hours to get there at around 1:00am.
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I THOUGHT THIS DESERVED A RE-POST BEFORE I CHECK OUT.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT.... 18z 6-25-2010

I will be back on the blog later to talk about this, later on tonight and to check back in.

You guys take it easy and have a good one :)

The Blog is close to a Record Amount of posts pace wise so POST HARD TONIGHT!

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Quoting mtyweatherfan90:
The HPC shows more than 5 inches of rain approaching Tamaulipas between next tuesday-thursday. AND also something going toward Florida... hum...



I believe that entire swath of rain, from Mexico to Nova Scotia, IS Alex or its remnant convection.

Quoting GetReal:


New convective burst erupting directly over the LLC.... First stage for the formation of the CDO.....


I honestly cannot tell if that's a hot tower or a CDO...I think the hot tower is BECOMING the CDO. Outer bands are reaching into the GOM already!

Quoting StormW:
img src="Photobucket" alt="" />


The real uncertainty begins around 25N, 92W.

Quoting 7544:
so does so fla get any rain from td1


Maybe. More likely over northern Florida and the Panhandle though.
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3423. uplater
Quoting weatherwart:


Oh, thank you very much. I'll go take a look.


The name is sorta Paradoxical. The Clouds reach so high up into the atmo, the air is very thin, and it gets super cold. They are really cold tops. in this case around -90c ( -130F ).

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3422. bwi
Pressure still pretty low way back at 81.5n 1006.7, even with the storm center moving away. Still breezy back there too 25kts. Quickly strengthing system I think.
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A hurricane isn't determined by size, it's determined by wind speed. Marco proved that point.

Quoting cg2916:
TD 1 is the size of a hurricane!
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3420. centex
NHC track is best we have, all the down NHC people are downers. They have best track on record and dedicated a career to make it right. Who are you? Granted, I don't take their word as gospel and don't miss many chances to point that out. This is not the time or place with this storm.
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3419. twooks
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
I think that they will wait till teal 71 goes out:

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 26/0200Z
D. 18.0N 84.5W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


When will this be?
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Quoting Michfan:


WOW... it is a pretty darn large depression!!!
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and 5 days late
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3416. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting cg2916:
TD 1 is the size of a hurricane!
thats because its going to be one
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I think that they will wait till teal 71 goes out:

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 26/0200Z
D. 18.0N 84.5W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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3414. beell
Pretty good days work for TD1 compared to this time yesterday.
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3412. Michfan
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Quoting palmpt:


LOL... I remember that since 200 years ago we became an independent country!
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Quoting cg2916:
TD 1 is the size of a hurricane!


Yeah the CDO is 1 latitude and 1.5 longitude's in size!! It's growing each frame of the RGB floater.
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3409. palmpt
Quoting CaneWarning:


Mexico is not a state.

Come on!
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 246
Quoting sailingallover:

Short of the last post that picking any path is as good as another right now I think you will get your wish..
It's been really nice here in the Virgin islands lost and lots of rain with much cooler temps than normal..I hope you get a weak depression with lots but not to much rain.


Yep, I hope too that we get this system more as a rainmaker than a trouble maker! :)
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Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:
What is the prognosis with respect to the potential rain event in Florida this weekend? Is that still on, or has it been reconsidered by the experts?
Considering you live in Tampa by your handle, I suggest that you contact the local weather service for much more accurate information. But I can tell you that if TD #1 does strengthen and moves a little more towards the panhandle it isn't out of the question that you could get some feeder bands and heavy rain from it.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3406. Grothar
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Quoting uplater:


From @patrap #2962


Hot Towers


Oh, thank you very much. I'll go take a look.
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3404. JamesSA

This thing just keeps getting bigger. If it strengthens beyond a TS it is going to be a real problem.
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Thanks for the link Dr. Maue...bookmarked.

Very Respectfully,

Jon
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Look Everybody,
Just my thinking is The NHC did not change from a TD 1 to a TS Alex is because they want more info from "Flight Data". Although the RI looks good the Data is just not there yet... Lets see what happens when they get the 2nd Flight into the Storm and that Data will change not only the Computer Modles but probably make the storm a high Tropical Storm with 60 to 70 MPH winds....

Just my 0.02 worth and that might not make that much....

Taco :o)
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3401. cg2916
TD 1 is the size of a hurricane!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Himself.


lol
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


All models currently predict landfall on the Yucatan (or Cozumel).



That's odd, maybe if the trough is strong enough the storm will "bounce" northeastward through the Gulf like that GFS run predicted all the way back when we had Agatha for a (ghost) storm in early June.







If the storm moves slowly enough, it could be pushed into Mexico by the high but another trough could pull the storm northeast.




i would re move that Photo if i where you the Admins are now out in full force
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3398. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
oh well no coding works to demonstrate
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3397. uplater
Quoting weatherwart:
Good evening. Would one of you kind people please explain the meaning of a "hot tower?"

Thanks!


From @patrap #2962


Hot Towers
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What is the prognosis with respect to the potential rain event in Florida this weekend? Is that still on, or has it been reconsidered by the experts?
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Quoting MrstormX:


Where is your definitive proof of that?
Himself.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3394. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


no spaces
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Any chance TD 1 turns NE BEFORE exiting the Caribbean ?


All models currently predict landfall on the Yucatan (or Cozumel).

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Big change in HWRF




That's odd, maybe if the trough is strong enough the storm will "bounce" northeastward through the Gulf like that GFS run predicted all the way back when we had Agatha for a (ghost) storm in early June.

Quoting TexasHurricane:
ok, I'm confussed. The NOAA has a track of most likely somewhere in TX and our locals (channel 6) was just saying that the high should stick and it should make landfall somewhere in Mexico. Did I miss something??


If the storm moves slowly enough, it could be pushed into Mexico by the high but another trough could pull the storm northeast.
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Quoting WeathermanAG:
how do you get pictures on here? its not working for me


If you are referring to your avatar, I can see it just fine.
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Quoting JLPR2:


yeah O.o
However I would be fine with a minimal TS XD
Usually a minimal tropical storm doesn't pack much of a punch as they only bring rain and some wind, I wouldn't mind that especially since it has been so hot in Miami lately.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting btwntx08:
the states on the look out is la and tx and maybe mx at this time


Mexico is not a state.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Tazmanian:
TD 1 is heading for LA


Where is your definitive proof of that?
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3388. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Damn!



Damn! Is all of that TD1?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
3386. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah I wouldn't be too excited seeing models pointing a possible hurricane at my backyard.


yeah O.o
However I would be fine with a minimal TS XD
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


I really don't think this situation is going to be remedied until sometime next year. The chances of additional storms in the Gulf is simply too great this year, IMO.

Hope I'm wrong. I seriously do. But I don't see it.
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how do you get pictures on here? its not working for me
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where evere the storm makes land fall it will sure take the oil with it
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Quoting Tazmanian:
TD 1 is heading for LA
Still uncertain. I know for sure it will likely make landfall somewhere between the Yucatan peninsula or Belize, after that the uncertainty kicks in.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
i Duno if it Was me or the Fact a Been Tracking This All Evening in scotland But has the offical path of the Storm moved a Bit Further West or is it me am a Amature at This lol
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Quoting mtyweatherfan90:


I live in NE Mexico so I wouldn't mind at all if the system pays us a visit. Outside we have a scorching 103° :( and no rain in sight.

Short of the last post that picking any path is as good as another right now I think you will get your wish..
It's been really nice here in the Virgin islands lost and lots of rain with much cooler temps than normal..I hope you get a weak depression with lots but not to much rain.
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Quoting btwntx08:
3367. IKE 11:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2010
Quoting extreme236:


You seem to be really anxious for this to effect Texas...


I'm rooting for him!

ok but im telling u not so excited with it
Yeah I wouldn't be too excited seeing models pointing a possible hurricane at my backyard.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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