93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricanes101:
What I don't understand is how a developing system like 93L that will be moving slowly over some of the warmest and deepest waters in the Atlantic Basin for a 2-3 day period; is only forecasted to be a weak tropical storm before it hits the Yucatan

We all know that the NHC and really many of us underestimate the strengthening ability of these systems
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It's frickin June people we aren't gonna get a major outta 93L, if we do, well it's 2005 all over again, no rules
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Quoting A4Guy:
Hi all! Can I please just vent for a moment about the new Flash sat loops!!
They are driving me nuts!! I never had so many problems with missing images...multiple hour delays in images updating, etc. when we used the Java loops. Granted, the Java loops took longer to load sometimes (and would occasionally get "stuck") - but I am going out of my mind with these Flash loops.
I am glad the Java loops are still working.

Anyone else having issues..or is it me? I am using two different PCs (work and home) and both have similar issues.


I was having the same problems recently (back and forth) and went ahead and got Weathertap as a result....It's a good alternative if you have the cash.
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326. IKE
Quoting ezcColony:
This is going to sound very wishy, but I hope the dang thing shoots the gap, hits the trough, blows up into a monster, and hits a city like New Orleans head on like a juggernaut.

Unfortunate as it is, it will be the only way we can find out what will happen when millions of gallons of oil interacts with a hurricane. How much becomes airborne? How much gets churned up and dispersed? How much gets inland? How much land is ruined?

These are interesting questions that have been posed since the oil volcano began in April. We may just be within a week of finding out the answers.


R U crazy?
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93L continuing to look better and better. Probably gonna see a tropical depression soon.
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Quoting NOLALawyer:


You are wrong.

Let me educate you both. If you suffered a prior loss form flood, once the adjuster verifies that you have made repairs, you will be adjusted again and paid again for your loss. Only damages directly attributable to flood are compensated under the SFIP. As long as you have done repairs, you are fine. If you have not, you have issues.

It takes more than two claims to be declared a repetitive loss. However, even after you are declared a repetitive loss, you are not dropped. You are sent to the NFIP for a "direct side policy," which is administered by the feds, and not a private insurance company.

Unless you are in a COBRA Zone, you can always get flood insurance.



Pretty much dead spot on...

It is encumbent upon you to make sure you get any repairs required and noted in your claim done, as soon as possible...flood damage especially...
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Quoting ezcColony:
This is going to sound very wishy, but I hope the dang thing shoots the gap, hits the trough, blows up into a monster, and hits a city like New Orleans head on like a juggernaut.

Unfortunate as it is, it will be the only way we can find out what will happen when millions of gallons of oil interacts with a hurricane. How much becomes airborne? How much gets churned up and dispersed? How much gets inland? How much land is ruined?

These are interesting questions that have been posed since the oil volcano began in April. We may just be within a week of finding out the answers.


Duuuuuude! Send it to Tampa!

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This is really piss poor journalism at its worst. This from Fox News:

The first hurricane of what experts fear will be a very severe season may be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, and anxious workers struggling to cap the leaking oil well are watching and worrying.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned Friday morning of not one but two weather formations in the Gulf of Mexico, both with the potential to swell into more serious weather systems.

There is a 70 percent chance that the low-pressure area centered off the coast of Honduras could become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, warned the NHC, indicating winds as fast as 73 mph. Any faster and the storm could become a named hurricane, the first of the season.

Joe Bastardi, Accuweather's chief hurricane expert, told FoxNews.com that the storm probably won't rage through the Gulf of Mexico, though it could become a hurricane. Instead it will move towards Belize, making landfall there by Sunday. By Monday it could reach Mexico, making landfall Tuesday somewhere between Tampico, Mexico, and Corpus Christi, Texas, he predicts.
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Quoting scott39:
I know whos he referring to. Nobody deserves this, as he implies.


Of course no one deserves it, but it is kind of unfortunate that Florida is getting impacted by something they have fought so hard to keep away. I don't know how the contracts on those wells work, but I would assume each state that allows them in their coastal waters gets some sort of a kickback or collects a tax for the drilling.
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Quoting AllStar17:


This thing is primed to take off now.
It's beginning to. Convection is really beginning to expand and explode. Satellite presentation is improving as well too. There is barely any doubt in my mind that 93L will not be TD#1.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting ezcColony:
This is going to sound very wishy, but I hope the dang thing shoots the gap, hits the trough, blows up into a monster, and hits a city like New Orleans head on like a juggernaut.

Unfortunate as it is, it will be the only way we can find out what will happen when millions of gallons of oil interacts with a hurricane. How much becomes airborne? How much gets churned up and dispersed? How much gets inland? How much land is ruined?

These are interesting questions that have been posed since the oil volcano began in April. We may just be within a week of finding out the answers.


Or you could have said you hoped it would blow up and stall right over the oil and then die out over water, that would have been better than you wishing it went to New Orleans
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Quoting A4Guy:
Hi all! Can I please just vent for a moment about the new Flash sat loops!!
They are driving me nuts!! I never had so many problems with missing images...multiple hour delays in images updating, etc. when we used the Java loops. Granted, the Java loops took longer to load sometimes (and would occasionally get "stuck") - but I am going out of my mind with these Flash loops.
I am glad the Java loops are still working.

Anyone else having issues..or is it me? I am using two different PCs (work and home) and both have similar issues.


Actually I've been having the opposite problem the last few days. The Java loops are missing frames, but the Flash loops were perfectly for me.
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316. Skyepony (Mod)
Kermit is flying Deepwater again today too. Good to see that got extended.
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Quoting ezcColony:
This is going to sound very wishy, but I hope the dang thing shoots the gap, hits the trough, blows up into a monster, and hits a city like New Orleans head on like a juggernaut.

Unfortunate as it is, it will be the only way we can find out what will happen when millions of gallons of oil interacts with a hurricane. How much becomes airborne? How much gets churned up and dispersed? How much gets inland? How much land is ruined?

These are interesting questions that have been posed since the oil volcano began in April. We may just be within a week of finding out the answers.


I hope you aren't serious.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


This thing is primed to take off now.
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I give this system a 10% chance for it to rapidly intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. OF course, we have to take into account land interaction and wind shear forecasts. Waters are just primed for development, especially over the Caribbean.
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Maybe I missed it but does anyone know where 456 has been all week?
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Sorry, I left the last part out:

THE 24/12Z ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH TRACKING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE THE SYSTEM
IS OVERDEVELOPED IN THE ECMWF WHICH HOLDS THE U/L RIDGE OVER FLORIDA
WITH CONTINUED DRY HOT CONDITIONS. LEANING TOWARD THE WETTER GFS
ATTM.
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310. A4Guy
Hi all! Can I please just vent for a moment about the new Flash sat loops!!
They are driving me nuts!! I never had so many problems with missing images...multiple hour delays in images updating, etc. when we used the Java loops. Granted, the Java loops took longer to load sometimes (and would occasionally get "stuck") - but I am going out of my mind with these Flash loops.
I am glad the Java loops are still working.

Anyone else having issues..or is it me? I am using two different PCs (work and home) and both have similar issues.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As the world turns... June 2010



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Does anyone have the google earth HH link? TIA
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Even if 100% of the people in these states supported it (which is not the case), I don't think the wildlife deserves to be coated with oil just because some politicians in the state -- an artificial political entity created by man -- that they make their homes in decided it was a good idea to drill offshore with criminally lousy oversight and regulations.
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Good morning. I see that the recon is on its way.
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Looks like recon went out of the way to check out the oil spill in the GOM . Any chance that 94L is not a fish ?
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What I don't understand is how a developing system like 93L that will be moving slowly over some of the warmest and deepest waters in the Atlantic Basin for a 2-3 day period; is only forecasted to be a weak tropical storm before it hits the Yucatan

We all know that the NHC and really many of us underestimate the strengthening ability of these systems
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:

look at the V shape of 94L. well defined.
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


For all we know, it could very well be 40 m/h. We will have to see what they find.

I see we have 94L now...Not a major threat to land besides Bermuda. We'll see 95L eventually, likely from the tropical wave off the African Coast. Rotation is already evident, and a broad area of Low Pressure was found yesterday. Hurricane Season 2010 has officially started...

Morning All
Morning...even though its almost 12 here :D
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I'm sold.
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Out of Tampa - this is interesting:

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE DUE TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE U/L RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN
ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE EAST BECOMING CENTERED EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK U/L TROUGH WILL DROP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH FLORIDA INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
THIS WILL ALSO VEER U/L WINDS TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND MAY TAP
THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...DEPENDING ON HOW THAT SYSTEM EVOLVES AND TRACKS WITH TIME.
WITH THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE U/L WINDS...THIS COULD CREATE A
TRAINING SITUATION OVER SOME PART OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS THAT STILL MUST FALL INTO LINE.
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
CONTINUE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RESIDUAL DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
WOULD KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATIC
NORMALS.
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Quoting FSUCOOPman:


I think he's referring to the other states that allow drilling.
That would be correct. I don't wish that on anyone, but, in reality it is going to endup somewhere if not all over. I hate to see the only state that hs been fighting driling to get the dirty end of the stick.
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296. Skyepony (Mod)
AF302 is inroute to 93L ~26000', 237 miles (381 km) to the SSE (157°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
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Quoting FSUCOOPman:


I think he's referring to the other states that allow drilling.
I know whos he referring to. Nobody deserves this, as he implies.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
93L exploding -80C cloud tops all over the place.

This storm is putting on a very good show, considering it is the daytime. It seems to have found its sweet spot at last.
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292. unf97
Quoting Hurricanes101:


he is talking about 94L, not 93L

either way though once 94L gets on the northern side of the TUTT it will have favorable conditions


Thank you Hurricanes101 and to others out there in referenced to that poster clarifying that I am talking about 94L. I mentioned 94L in post #257. I am amazed he totlally overlooked that. LOL..
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93L exploding -80C cloud tops all over the place.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
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I think Florida is not out of the clear. The stronger it gets, the more east it will go. In my opinion, Louisiana to Florida is where this will go.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Impressive deep convection.
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287. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Not good at all Ike!


It may not happen. Too early to know.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Very nice convective burst over the COC.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting scott39:
Whos they?


I think he's referring to the other states that allow drilling.
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Quoting IKE:


If 93L is strong enough it might get picked up by the front/trough and make landfall somewhere along the northern gulf coast.
Not good at all Ike!
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Quoting MrsOsa:


Theoretically, yes they will pay. They didn't "buy" your house previously, they paid to fix it. So yes, they will pay to fix it again as long as your premiums were kept current. And then they will decline to renew your policy because you file too many claims.


You are not quite right.

Let me help. If you suffered a prior loss form flood, once the adjuster verifies that you have made repairs, you will be adjusted again and paid again for your loss. Only damages directly attributable to flood are compensated under the SFIP. As long as you have done repairs, you are fine. If you have not, you have issues.

It takes more than two claims to be declared a repetitive loss. However, even after you are declared a repetitive loss, you are not dropped. You are sent to the NFIP for a "direct side policy," which is administered by the feds, and not a private insurance company.

Unless you are in a COBRA Zone, you can always get flood insurance.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I have no doubt theres a closed low

Yeah, seems unlikely that there isn't but let's see what RECON finds.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
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280. IKE
Quoting scott39:
what does this mean for the track of a possible future developed TC?


If 93L is strong enough it might get picked up by the front/trough and make landfall somewhere along the northern gulf coast.
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Quoting leo305:


what do you mean nothing is expected of development now? The TUTT is over cuba and in the southern gulf.. there is a huge anticyclone over 93L, How can it not develop, it's firing up convection as DMIN takes place too


he is talking about 94L, not 93L

either way though once 94L gets on the northern side of the TUTT it will have favorable conditions
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.