93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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379. jpsb
Quoting ezcColony:
Unfortunate as it is, it will be the only way we can find out what will happen when millions of gallons of oil interacts with a hurricane.
And why to we need to know that? How about we just drill safer and not have a need to find out?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
What I don't understand is how a developing system like 93L that will be moving slowly over some of the warmest and deepest waters in the Atlantic Basin for a 2-3 day period; is only forecasted to be a weak tropical storm before it hits the Yucatan

We all know that the NHC and really many of us underestimate the strengthening ability of these systems
It's a very large system. Think of the energy it takes to get that area rotating... The only way to get it wrapping up tighter is some very heavy convection spread out over the entire system. We don't have that yet.
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Quoting houstonstormguy:
This is really piss poor journalism at its worst. This from Fox News:

...
There is a 70 percent chance that the low-pressure area centered off the coast of Honduras could become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, warned the NHC, indicating winds as fast as 73 mph. Any faster and the storm could become a named hurricane, the first of the season.


LOL. "A storm with greater than 73mph winds COULD be a hurricane." Crack reporting.
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Quoting texascoastres:
318 our insurance companies are already saying if a storm or hurricane comes in and oil has contaminated your home they will not pay the claim. You would have to take it up with BP. which means more people in the mony pool BP set up. Not sure what will happen but either way its not good for anyone in any gulf coast state


Better get a Pollution Rider, and quick.
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Quoting houstonstormguy:
It might have helped if the writer @ Fox News would have spent say a minimum of what, maybe 5 minutes understanding tropical weather?
I'd settle for 5 minutes of learning to read a map.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I don't post much during the day as I am busy in the office and the fire walls in our servers make accessing the blog a slow page opening process.

Will post more later.
Ok.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting A4Guy:
Hi all! Can I please just vent for a moment about the new Flash sat loops!!
They are driving me nuts!! I never had so many problems with missing images...multiple hour delays in images updating, etc. when we used the Java loops. Granted, the Java loops took longer to load sometimes (and would occasionally get "stuck") - but I am going out of my mind with these Flash loops.
I am glad the Java loops are still working.

Anyone else having issues..or is it me? I am using two different PCs (work and home) and both have similar issues.


Hi. Yes I'm going through the same thing. I just gave up and went with the Java every time. I've also gotten virus/malware warnings on about every site dealing with weather that I've been on in the last week. But run the virus scan. Comes up clean. Next few times the sites will work. Then here we go again. Like you, I tried different computers same result. UGH!! I thought someone was just out to drive me insane. Well I hope the flash issues resolve themselves. Good luck. :)
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Another attempt to twists Joe Bastardi's words into hype by the media. News agencies like Fox, CNN, and NBC live off hype. Then when a storm doesn't live up to the hype created by the media, people stop listening to the weather experts. And thats when weather becomes an entertainment package (Wake Up With Al, etc.).


Hype? This "article" has so much wrong information that it boggles one's mind. Did whoever write this even look at a map? The addition of JB's prediction just adds to the jumble of crappola this piece is...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey good to see you Kman! Yeah I agree with that, I think we could see a TD before 5 PM, also watches and warning should be warranted.


I don't post much during the day as I am busy in the office and the fire walls in our servers make accessing the blog a slow page opening process.

Will post more later.
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Hmmm, lower level outflow, thunderstorms are apparently beginning to collapse.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Dropsonde:


Man you aren't kidding. WTH? 94L is in the Atlantic, and...
"THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST"

And of course 93L isn't in the Gulf yet, though it's got a visit marked on its calendar.

Unbelievable.


Yesterday, one of the Fox "anchors" said (paraphrasing) "Hurricane Darby has become a very dangerous major hurricane. How will it affect the Gulf Coast and the oil spill? Find out after the break."
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If June ends with two name tropical system, we are bound to a very active season as predicted.
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If 93L and 94L both form that would be the quickest start to a Hurricane season in 5 years.

2 named storms in June is what 2005 had. And regards to 94L, NHC rarely gives invest title without it being bumped up to a high yellow or a low orange.
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318 our insurance companies are already saying if a storm or hurricane comes in and oil has contaminated your home they will not pay the claim. You would have to take it up with BP. which means more people in the mony pool BP set up. Not sure what will happen but either way its not good for anyone in any gulf coast state
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It might have helped if the writer @ Fox News would have spent say a minimum of what, maybe 5 minutes understanding tropical weather?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ROFLMAO! Oh man...


Not even close! Two things in the GOM, and 73 MPH winds?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
...CELIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...FURTHER WEAKENING EXPECTED ...
Graphic Update: 11am EDT
Info courtesy of the National Hurricane Center
Image made by cyclonekid



...DARBY BECOMES THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...
Graphic Update: 11am EDT
Info courtesy of the National Hurricane Center
Image made by cyclonekid

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Quoting unf97:


Thank you Hurricanes101 and to others out there in referenced to that poster clarifying that I am talking about 94L. I mentioned 94L in post #257. I am amazed he totlally overlooked that. LOL..


oh sorry LOL =P
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HH heading South
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
\

Wow.

Thats...


CRAP! I take it you wanted to finish your statement...Faux News strikes again
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358. jpsb
Quoting NOLALawyer:


You are not quite right.

Let me help. If you suffered a prior loss form flood, once the adjuster verifies that you have made repairs, you will be adjusted again and paid again for your loss.

Ok, thanks, that is kindof what I thought. I used the insurance money to pay off the house (got early retired, and did not want to be homeless) not make repairs. The house is OK, not what it once was but still easily livable. I have not brother to re-up flood since I figured there is no way they are going to cover any further loses without proof of substantial repairs and of course there is no proof since they were no substantial repairs done. thanks for the info all.
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Quoting ezcColony:
This is going to sound very wishy, but I hope the dang thing shoots the gap, hits the trough, blows up into a monster, and hits a city like New Orleans head on like a juggernaut.

Unfortunate as it is, it will be the only way we can find out what will happen when millions of gallons of oil interacts with a hurricane. How much becomes airborne? How much gets churned up and dispersed? How much gets inland? How much land is ruined?

These are interesting questions that have been posed since the oil volcano began in April. We may just be within a week of finding out the answers.
Thank God, you are posting from a mental institution! You need your meds uped! DR STAT
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Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Of course no one deserves it, but it is kind of unfortunate that Florida is getting impacted by something they have fought so hard to keep away. I don't know how the contracts on those wells work, but I would assume each state that allows them in their coastal waters gets some sort of a kickback or collects a tax for the drilling.


I believe that a lot of them are in Fed waters.
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338. kmanislander 11:55 AM EDT on June 25, 2010
Puerto Cabezas, NK (Airport)


Brings back memories; thats where my Father flew B-26's out of during the Bay of Pigs invasion in April of 61 (or fisaco) depending on how you look at it......


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Quoting RitaEvac:
It's frickin June people we aren't gonna get a major outta 93L, if we do, well it's 2005 all over again, no rules

calm down and watch your language please.
It has been stated many times in here and by Dr J. all the ingredients are all there and they are in ample amounts. This could be another 2005.
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Quoting muddertracker:
Does anyone have the google earth HH link? TIA


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Atlantic.kmz
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Quoting houstonstormguy:
This is really piss poor journalism at its worst. This from Fox News:

The first hurricane of what experts fear will be a very severe season may be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, and anxious workers struggling to cap the leaking oil well are watching and worrying.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned Friday morning of not one but two weather formations in the Gulf of Mexico, both with the potential to swell into more serious weather systems.

There is a 70 percent chance that the low-pressure area centered off the coast of Honduras could become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, warned the NHC, indicating winds as fast as 73 mph. Any faster and the storm could become a named hurricane, the first of the season.

Joe Bastardi, Accuweather's chief hurricane expert, told FoxNews.com that the storm probably won't rage through the Gulf of Mexico, though it could become a hurricane. Instead it will move towards Belize, making landfall there by Sunday. By Monday it could reach Mexico, making landfall Tuesday somewhere between Tampico, Mexico, and Corpus Christi, Texas, he predicts.


Another attempt to twists Joe Bastardi's words into hype by the media. News agencies like Fox, CNN, and NBC live off hype. Then when a storm doesn't live up to the hype created by the media, people stop listening to the weather experts. And thats when weather becomes an entertainment package (Wake Up With Al, etc.).
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Recon KML
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
BP got their own weather experts
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Maybe I missed it but does anyone know where 456 has been all week?


He has not been feeling well, he mentioned he was in the hospital.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
\

Wow.

Thats...
LOL!!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting houstonstormguy:
This is really piss poor journalism at its worst. This from Fox News:

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned Friday morning of not one but two weather formations in the Gulf of Mexico, both with the potential to swell into more serious weather systems.


Man you aren't kidding. WTH? 94L is in the Atlantic, and...
"THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST"

And of course 93L isn't in the Gulf yet, though it's got a visit marked on its calendar.

Unbelievable.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Puerto Cabezas, NK (Airport)
Updated: 53 min 7 sec ago
27 °C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 26 °C
Wind: 7 km/h / 2.1 m/s from the WNW
Pressure: 1007 hPa (Steady

The HH should find a TD out there with very little trouble IMO. There may also be TS force winds in some of those squalls but probably not sustained to warranted a TS classification at this time.

Hey good to see you Kman! Yeah I agree with that, I think we could see a TD before 5 PM, also watches and warning should be warranted.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting houstonstormguy:
This is really piss poor journalism at its worst. This from Fox News:

The first hurricane of what experts fear will be a very severe season may be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, and anxious workers struggling to cap the leaking oil well are watching and worrying.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned Friday morning of not one but two weather formations in the Gulf of Mexico, both with the potential to swell into more serious weather systems.

There is a 70 percent chance that the low-pressure area centered off the coast of Honduras could become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, warned the NHC, indicating winds as fast as 73 mph. Any faster and the storm could become a named hurricane, the first of the season.

Joe Bastardi, Accuweather's chief hurricane expert, told FoxNews.com that the storm probably won't rage through the Gulf of Mexico, though it could become a hurricane. Instead it will move towards Belize, making landfall there by Sunday. By Monday it could reach Mexico, making landfall Tuesday somewhere between Tampico, Mexico, and Corpus Christi, Texas, he predicts.
\

Wow.

Thats...
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Quoting A4Guy:
Hi all! Can I please just vent for a moment about the new Flash sat loops!!
They are driving me nuts!! I never had so many problems with missing images...multiple hour delays in images updating, etc. when we used the Java loops. Granted, the Java loops took longer to load sometimes (and would occasionally get "stuck") - but I am going out of my mind with these Flash loops.
I am glad the Java loops are still working.

Anyone else having issues..or is it me? I am using two different PCs (work and home) and both have similar issues.


i have flash problems too, the last 4 images are white half the time! it drives me insane
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Link

Anyone check this site out? Pretty good imagery/tracks for 93L.
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Reconnaissance aircraft latest location.

15:45:00Z - 26.033N 88.150W
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Puerto Cabezas, NK (Airport)
Updated: 53 min 7 sec ago
27 C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 26 C
Wind: 7 km/h / 2.1 m/s from the WNW
Pressure: 1007 hPa (Steady

The HH should find a TD out there with very little trouble IMO. There may also be TS force winds in some of those squalls but probably not sustained to warrant a TS classification at this time.

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Quoting houstonstormguy:
This is really piss poor journalism at its worst. This from Fox News:

The first hurricane of what experts fear will be a very severe season may be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, and anxious workers struggling to cap the leaking oil well are watching and worrying.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned Friday morning of not one but two weather formations in the Gulf of Mexico, both with the potential to swell into more serious weather systems.

There is a 70 percent chance that the low-pressure area centered off the coast of Honduras could become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, warned the NHC, indicating winds as fast as 73 mph. Any faster and the storm could become a named hurricane, the first of the season.

Joe Bastardi, Accuweather's chief hurricane expert, told FoxNews.com that the storm probably won't rage through the Gulf of Mexico, though it could become a hurricane. Instead it will move towards Belize, making landfall there by Sunday. By Monday it could reach Mexico, making landfall Tuesday somewhere between Tampico, Mexico, and Corpus Christi, Texas, he predicts.


Not very good reporting, however I'm sure that BP has their "Oh $h!T" face on right about now. This WOULD be the last thing that they we need at this point in the game
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Recon 296 miles away from New Orleans.
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Quoting houstonstormguy:
This is really piss poor journalism at its worst. This from Fox News:

The first hurricane of what experts fear will be a very severe season may be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, and anxious workers struggling to cap the leaking oil well are watching and worrying.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned Friday morning of not one but two weather formations in the Gulf of Mexico, both with the potential to swell into more serious weather systems.

There is a 70 percent chance that the low-pressure area centered off the coast of Honduras could become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, warned the NHC, indicating winds as fast as 73 mph. Any faster and the storm could become a named hurricane, the first of the season.

Joe Bastardi, Accuweather's chief hurricane expert, told FoxNews.com that the storm probably won't rage through the Gulf of Mexico, though it could become a hurricane. Instead it will move towards Belize, making landfall there by Sunday. By Monday it could reach Mexico, making landfall Tuesday somewhere between Tampico, Mexico, and Corpus Christi, Texas, he predicts.


Good Lord... Good ole Joe is going to miss another one!
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Quoting houstonstormguy:
This is really piss poor journalism at its worst. This from Fox News:

The first hurricane of what experts fear will be a very severe season may be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, and anxious workers struggling to cap the leaking oil well are watching and worrying.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned Friday morning of not one but two weather formations in the Gulf of Mexico, both with the potential to swell into more serious weather systems.

There is a 70 percent chance that the low-pressure area centered off the coast of Honduras could become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, warned the NHC, indicating winds as fast as 73 mph. Any faster and the storm could become a named hurricane, the first of the season.

Joe Bastardi, Accuweather's chief hurricane expert, told FoxNews.com that the storm probably won't rage through the Gulf of Mexico, though it could become a hurricane. Instead it will move towards Belize, making landfall there by Sunday. By Monday it could reach Mexico, making landfall Tuesday somewhere between Tampico, Mexico, and Corpus Christi, Texas, he predicts.
ROFLMAO! Oh man...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting houstonstormguy:
This is really piss poor journalism at its worst. This from Fox News:

The first hurricane of what experts fear will be a very severe season may be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, and anxious workers struggling to cap the leaking oil well are watching and worrying.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned Friday morning of not one but two weather formations in the Gulf of Mexico, both with the potential to swell into more serious weather systems.

There is a 70 percent chance that the low-pressure area centered off the coast of Honduras could become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, warned the NHC, indicating winds as fast as 73 mph. Any faster and the storm could become a named hurricane, the first of the season.

Joe Bastardi, Accuweather's chief hurricane expert, told FoxNews.com that the storm probably won't rage through the Gulf of Mexico, though it could become a hurricane. Instead it will move towards Belize, making landfall there by Sunday. By Monday it could reach Mexico, making landfall Tuesday somewhere between Tampico, Mexico, and Corpus Christi, Texas, he predicts.


Do you expect anything other than poor journalism from Fox News?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting NOLALawyer:


You are wrong.

Let me educate you both. If you suffered a prior loss form flood, once the adjuster verifies that you have made repairs, you will be adjusted again and paid again for your loss. Only damages directly attributable to flood are compensated under the SFIP. As long as you have done repairs, you are fine. If you have not, you have issues.

It takes more than two claims to be declared a repetitive loss. However, even after you are declared a repetitive loss, you are not dropped. You are sent to the NFIP for a "direct side policy," which is administered by the feds, and not a private insurance company.

Unless you are in a COBRA Zone, you can always get flood insurance.



Well I may have said it wrong, but this is what I meant. They pay you for the repairs, not to buy your house. We are in agreement.

On the other hand, I do not agree about the repetitive loss parameters. You may very well be correct on paper and in theory. However, I know way too many people in my area who filed their first flood claims after Katrina and their policy holders refused to renew the next go round. They are now with me in the National Flood Insurance Program. Like I said, those may be the rules on paper, but the insurance companies know how to play the system and they skirted around a lot after Katrina.
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93L's current state slightly reminds me of Paloma as a TD.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
What I don't understand is how a developing system like 93L that will be moving slowly over some of the warmest and deepest waters in the Atlantic Basin for a 2-3 day period; is only forecasted to be a weak tropical storm before it hits the Yucatan

We all know that the NHC and really many of us underestimate the strengthening ability of these systems
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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