93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Fl30258713:


ROFLMAO, That's sad and pathetic. What a maroon.
A maroon? *moron?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting texascoastres:
318 our insurance companies are already saying if a storm or hurricane comes in and oil has contaminated your home they will not pay the claim. You would have to take it up with BP. which means more people in the mony pool BP set up. Not sure what will happen but either way its not good for anyone in any gulf coast state


You misunderstood them; your insurance company is REQUIRED to pay you on losses clearly caused by covered peril; if a CAT3 blows in and takes off your roof, they owe you for the roof, reagrdless of the oil, if the damage to your roof is casued by wind...if the surge flows in and floods your house, they owe your for the flood damage...BP owes you for the oil damage (or at least, that's the idea here)

Where would you get the idea that carriers won't pay for covered peril?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I posted a comment on Fox New's page regarding this awful article. It's funny that they did not post my comment on their blog. I was simply putting the correct information out for any of their readers to read. Sad....
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


TCFA moves the system WNW, interesting



wish mean?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114652
Quoting MrNatural:
Finally having an opportunity to review the latest on 93L. Based on surface, buoy and satellite info, it appears to be about 100 miles east Honduras, moving west. Winds are just below TD strength between 30 - 34 mph. Seems to be moving very slowly west and should either skirt the Honduras north shore in go inland by mid afternoon. I'm not buying into this shift to the north based on observations. Even if it does not go inland, the significant interaction with the north shore of Honduras should put an end to our discussions on 93L and allow us to focus on items further east of note.
Several things are incorrect.

1. The NHC stated that 93L is moving towards the northwest, coordinates over the last 6 hours support that, along with satellite imagery.

2. Winds are are at 30 knots or 35 mph, this was reported by the NHC at 12:00 UTC. Several buoys have also shown non-sustained TS force gusts in some of the feeder bands associated with 93L.

3. The circulation as you stated is 100 miles to the north of Honduras and is moving towards the northwest at about 5 mph. So I don't see how land interaction would be a problem, maybe minimal.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Guys, I know this is off-topic, but they caught two of the AWOL Afghans on FACEBOOK!

Back to tropics now! LOL
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
But I do agree that that report is crap.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'll take JB's long range predictions over anyones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
UPDATED T.C.F.A.
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) 93L




ALERT ATCF MIL 93X XXX 100625120000
2010062512
16.5 277.5
17.0 273.0
100
16.5 277.5
251500
1006251500
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251500Z JUN 10//
WTNT21 KNGU 251500
REF/A/RMG/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA/241500Z JUN 10//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 241430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 82.5W TO 17.0N 87.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 82.5W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WESTERLY AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS. AT 25/1200Z INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED IN AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARDS AN ATMOSPHERE THAT HAS LOW WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 86
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
TROPICAL FEATURE. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT IS VALID UNTIL 261500Z.//
9310062018 120N 643W 15
9310062100 127N 654W 20
9310062106 134N 665W 20
9310062112 140N 676W 20
9310062118 145N 688W 25
9310062200 149N 700W 25
9310062206 151N 715W 25
9310062212 153N 729W 25
9310062218 154N 740W 25
9310062300 156N 752W 25
9310062306 157N 763W 25
9310062312 159N 768W 25
9310062318 161N 777W 25
9310062400 162N 782W 25
9310062406 164N 793W 25
9310062412 163N 803W 25
9310062418 162N 810W 25
9310062500 160N 816W 25
9310062506 163N 821W 25
9310062512 165N 825W 30

Navy seems to think this is going to Belize... almost due west.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
UPDATED T.C.F.A.
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) 93L




ALERT ATCF MIL 93X XXX 100625120000
2010062512
16.5 277.5
17.0 273.0
100
16.5 277.5
251500
1006251500
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251500Z JUN 10//
WTNT21 KNGU 251500
REF/A/RMG/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA/241500Z JUN 10//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 241430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 82.5W TO 17.0N 87.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 82.5W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WESTERLY AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS. AT 25/1200Z INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED IN AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARDS AN ATMOSPHERE THAT HAS LOW WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 86
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
TROPICAL FEATURE. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT IS VALID UNTIL 261500Z.//
9310062018 120N 643W 15
9310062100 127N 654W 20
9310062106 134N 665W 20
9310062112 140N 676W 20
9310062118 145N 688W 25
9310062200 149N 700W 25
9310062206 151N 715W 25
9310062212 153N 729W 25
9310062218 154N 740W 25
9310062300 156N 752W 25
9310062306 157N 763W 25
9310062312 159N 768W 25
9310062318 161N 777W 25
9310062400 162N 782W 25
9310062406 164N 793W 25
9310062412 163N 803W 25
9310062418 162N 810W 25
9310062500 160N 816W 25
9310062506 163N 821W 25
9310062512 165N 825W 30



TCFA moves the system WNW, interesting
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AWOL Afghans Found... On Facebook!

At least 11 of the 17 members of the Afghan military who went AWOL from an Air Force base in Texas and are considered deserters by their nation have turned up in the exact place you'd expect to find them in the year 2010.

They're on Facebook.

And, by the look of things, they're not unlike millions of other young men on the social networking site. One proclaims to be a fan of Paris Hilton and is a member of a group named “FREE Webcam *** with ME!” Another is a fan of hip hop music, Michael Jackson, the tearjerker movie The Notebook, Family Guy and Sports Center. Another is a fan of soccer and the Godfather.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
i see we have 94L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114652

11:00 am National Hurricane Center Update
**GRAPHICS UPDATE



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
UPDATED T.C.F.A.
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) 93L



ALERT ATCF MIL 93X XXX 100625120000
2010062512
16.5 277.5
17.0 273.0
100
16.5 277.5
251500
1006251500
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251500Z JUN 10//
WTNT21 KNGU 251500
REF/A/RMG/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA/241500Z JUN 10//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 241430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 82.5W TO 17.0N 87.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 82.5W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WESTERLY AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS. AT 25/1200Z INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED IN AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARDS AN ATMOSPHERE THAT HAS LOW WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 86
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
TROPICAL FEATURE. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT IS VALID UNTIL 261500Z.//
9310062018 120N 643W 15
9310062100 127N 654W 20
9310062106 134N 665W 20
9310062112 140N 676W 20
9310062118 145N 688W 25
9310062200 149N 700W 25
9310062206 151N 715W 25
9310062212 153N 729W 25
9310062218 154N 740W 25
9310062300 156N 752W 25
9310062306 157N 763W 25
9310062312 159N 768W 25
9310062318 161N 777W 25
9310062400 162N 782W 25
9310062406 164N 793W 25
9310062412 163N 803W 25
9310062418 162N 810W 25
9310062500 160N 816W 25
9310062506 163N 821W 25
9310062512 165N 825W 30

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Oddly enough FOX NEWS has the best ratings of all the cable news outlets and their average viewer is more highly educated.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Joe Bastardi's prediction is no more crap than the forecast made by plenty of other bloggers here. We all got our opinions, some are more education based than others.

But yeah, the article sucks.



You are correct about JB's prediction, but considering that the person who wrote this does not know the difference between the Gulf, the Caribbean and the Atlantic and then puts in JB's prediction without even stating what he bases it on, is what adds to the jumble of crappola...
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Quoting AllStar17:


Incorrect. Judging by the NHC coordinates it is beginning to move WNW / NW. Also, it would have to move SW to skirt the Honduran coast, which won't happen.
The circulation is larger than that "L" though, you know. lol
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410. jpsb
Quoting Dropsonde:
I don't think the wildlife deserves to be coated with oil just because some politicians in the state
The rig has nothing to do with any state, it is (or was) a FEDERALLY licensed and FEDERALLY regulated rig. Blame the feds not any particular state.
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Quoting RCThunder:


Kills me Fox seems to end each break with what's coming up - just tell us now GEESH!

They are called "teasers". Somebody must have started teaching the wonders of teasers in colleges and the media really ran with the idea. Now you get more teasers than actual content. It is really annoying, makes me just hit the off button.
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Quoting MrNatural:
Finally having an opportunity to review the latest on 93L. Based on surface, buoy and satellite info, it appears to be about 100 miles east Honduras, moving west. Winds are just below TD strength between 30 - 34 mph. Seems to be moving very slowly west and should either skirt the Honduras north shore in go inland by mid afternoon. I'm not buying into this shift to the north based on observations. Even if it does not go inland, the significant interaction with the north shore of Honduras should put an end to our discussions on 93L and allow us to focus on items further east of note.


Incorrect. Judging by the NHC coordinates it is beginning to move WNW / NW. Also, it would have to move SW to skirt the Honduran coast, which won't happen.
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Quoting ezcColony:


Then some of the questions go unanswered. I'm all about the data. Getting the information in the space of one event and so soon would be fortuitous.

Since I do not live in this part of the world, it is very easy for me to stand off and watch what happens. If any hurricane does the dirty on the US gulf coast this year, it will absolutely have a zero affect on me (and billions of others).

For those this oil spill has affected, for those that live there in that area, my sincere condolences. Your choice for a place to call home is proving not to be a very good one at this hour.

It is further unfortunate that this is a truism. The world can get along fine without the U.S. gulf coast. I know it sounds heartless and cold, but that doesn't change the truth of it. If it were different, Katrina aid would have come overnight, the oil volcano would have been sealed by any means necessary by your government, and there would be many more people living there, like there are along the eastern seaboard of the US.
We need the data on oil hurricane interaction like we need a hole in the head. We are trying to save our livelihood down here and you want some test tube experiment to happen in real life. Sounds like you are hoping this will happen. Kinda sick to read.
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Quoting IKE:


I guess we can shut the blog down and go fishing or head to the beach.


I am so glad we dont have to track 93L anymore

lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I will keep this one updated about every 15 minutes, or unless a Vortex is found.



AOI
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Quoting MrNatural:
Finally having an opportunity to review the latest on 93L. Based on surface, buoy and satellite info, it appears to be about 100 miles east Honduras, moving west. Winds are just below TD strength between 30 - 34 mph. Seems to be moving very slowly west and should either skirt the Honduras north shore in go inland by mid afternoon. I'm not buying into this shift to the north based on observations. Even if it does not go inland, the significant interaction with the north shore of Honduras should put an end to our discussions on 93L and allow us to focus on items further east of note.
think your on to something
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400. IKE
Quoting MrNatural:
Finally having an opportunity to review the latest on 93L. Based on surface, buoy and satellite info, it appears to be about 100 miles east Honduras, moving west. Winds are just below TD strength between 30 - 34 mph. Seems to be moving very slowly west and should either skirt the Honduras north shore in go inland by mid afternoon. I'm not buying into this shift to the north based on observations. Even if it does not go inland, the significant interaction with the north shore of Honduras should put an end to our discussions on 93L and allow us to focus on items further east of note.


I guess we can shut the blog down and go fishing or head to the beach.
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Quoting miamiamiga:


Hype? This "article" has so much wrong information that it boggles one's mind. Did whoever write this even look at a map? The addition of JB's prediction just adds to the jumble of crappola this piece is...


Joe Bastardi's prediction is no more crap than the forecast made by plenty of other bloggers here. We all got our opinions, some are more education based than others.

But yeah, the article sucks.

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting DauphinNotDolphin:


Yesterday, one of the Fox "anchors" said (paraphrasing) "Hurricane Darby has become a very dangerous major hurricane. How will it affect the Gulf Coast and the oil spill? Find out after the break."


ROFLMAO, That's sad and pathetic. What a maroon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
397. DVG
Quoting sammywammybamy:
F - Full
O- of
X - Xtra

C - - (You know the Word)
hanel


You need to keep this crap on the Daily Kos.

This is the place for weather.

Thankyou very much.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
No way this is going to be Alex in at least the next 6 hours. I'd forecast it to become Alex by 11-2 tonight.
Agreed.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MrsOsa:


Well I may have said it wrong, but this is what I meant. They pay you for the repairs, not to buy your house. We are in agreement.

On the other hand, I do not agree about the repetitive loss parameters. You may very well be correct on paper and in theory. However, I know way too many people in my area who filed their first flood claims after Katrina and their policy holders refused to renew the next go round. They are now with me in the National Flood Insurance Program. Like I said, those may be the rules on paper, but the insurance companies know how to play the system and they skirted around a lot after Katrina.


There is a balance there, MrsOsa; the larger companies (I will not name them, but you know who I'm talking about) do things like pull out iof harder hit areas and that effects EVERYONE, including those that didn't file a claim. What typically happens is smaller, hungrier companies come in and take uop the slack. The problem with this scenario is that some people fall ebtween the cracks and end up with Wind Pool (Citizens) and NFIP insurance.

Count yourself lucky you had flood coverage at all; there were agents in Mississippi that recommended to their clients that they drop their flood coverage to save premium money as late as early August 2005. I know one such agent that had to keave Mississippi...he feared he'd be lynched
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Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 15:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Friday, 15:55Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 25.2N 87.7W
Location: 360 miles (580 km) to the SSE (156) from New Orleans, LA, USA
.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,620 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -21C
Flight Level Dew Point: -33C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,620 geopotential meters
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Finally having an opportunity to review the latest on 93L. Based on surface, buoy and satellite info, it appears to be about 100 miles east Honduras, moving west. Winds are just below TD strength between 30 - 34 mph. Seems to be moving very slowly west and should either skirt the Honduras north shore in go inland by mid afternoon. I'm not buying into this shift to the north based on observations. Even if it does not go inland, the significant interaction with the north shore of Honduras should put an end to our discussions on 93L and allow us to focus on items further east of note.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
they might just find sustained 40mph winds w/93L,they might just Name it and skip the TD stage IMO...definately some convective organization over the surface center!!!
No way this is going to be Alex in at least the next 6 hours. I'd forecast it to become Alex by 11-2 tonight.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


However this Affect of the Oil spill on florida, will cause even more widespread opposition to off-shore drilling, helping th cause long term.


True, I guess that's some silver lining... I'm just worried about Florida's economy as a whole because we rely so heavily on tourism for the State funds. I just had a couple beers with a guy that's a charter captain out Port. St. Joe and he's losing $5000 a month in an area that's not even affected by the oil (they're still catching tons of fish). It's just the damn media hype that has so many people scared and cancelling their trips.

IMO, if 93L stays west, Florida is going to be completely hosed everywhere...Even in Appalachee Bay, where it's still clear right now and somewhat protected by the "sharks tooth" land mass.
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Quoting bappit:


You are talking about 94L right?
Yes.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Recon currently 357 miles away from New Orleans.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23497
Quoting DauphinNotDolphin:


Yesterday, one of the Fox "anchors" said (paraphrasing) "Hurricane Darby has become a very dangerous major hurricane. How will it affect the Gulf Coast and the oil spill? Find out after the break."


Kills me Fox seems to end each break with what's coming up - just tell us now GEESH!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrsOsa:


Well I may have said it wrong, but this is what I meant. They pay you for the repairs, not to buy your house. We are in agreement.

On the other hand, I do not agree about the repetitive loss parameters. You may very well be correct on paper and in theory. However, I know way too many people in my area who filed their first flood claims after Katrina and their policy holders refused to renew the next go round. They are now with me in the National Flood Insurance Program. Like I said, those may be the rules on paper, but the insurance companies know how to play the system and they skirted around a lot after Katrina.


That is not how it works. Private Lines insurance companies will drop you after a major H/O loss, or raise your premiums to the stratosphere.

WYO carriers will not. They are paid commission on claims, so there is no incentive to lowball, drop, or otherwise play insurance games. The program was designed this way to give the companies incentive to pay. The more they pay, the more they earn. Plus, it is not private funds that they are paying out. It is U.S. Treasury funds, i.e. your tax dollars.

Mike
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It is unlikely but considering that it could run into some cold waters into the mid to long term you aren't going to get a warm cored system.


You are talking about 94L right?
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Hype? This "article" has so much wrong information that it boggles one's mind. Did whoever write this even look at a map? The addition of JB's prediction just adds to the jumble of crappola this piece is...


Well said
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they might just find sustained 40mph winds w/93L,they might just Name it and skip the TD stage IMO...definately some convective organization over the surface center!!!
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I was on Fox News looking at the rest of the article, and this is what I found:

AWOL Afghans Found... ON FACEBOOK! Really, are you that stupid?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
379. jpsb
Quoting ezcColony:
Unfortunate as it is, it will be the only way we can find out what will happen when millions of gallons of oil interacts with a hurricane.
And why to we need to know that? How about we just drill safer and not have a need to find out?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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