93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting bappit:


More highly educated than what?



cbs???
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Morning everyone, 93L is on the verge of TD status. I believe recon will indeed find Tropical Depression One and TS warnings will be issued for the Yucatan. Land interaction will tear the storm apart as shown with the GFDL. I will have a full update later after recon is in 93L for a while. 94L? Haven't had much time to look into it, don't see much with it yet.
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What I don't understand is why any news organization wouldn't make WU one of its top 3 resources when it comes to tropical weather.

I found this site by accident and have learned so much from the senior bloggers here.
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Quoting bappit:


More highly educated than what?





If ya gotta ask.....
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't go. Just ignore them.

That's what i'm doing....
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Alright I got the Honey Do List done just in time to watch recon enter 93L...Since it is 1,000 degrees outside I must rehydrate so I can see straight haha.


Nice and cool here... 61.5°F to be exact.
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looks like 93L is going to make land fall soon
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114702
Quoting MrNatural:
So far the best perspective I've come across on the location for 93L is using the interactive radar and weather station feature from the "Wundermap" out of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. This is allowing me to analyze the cloud movement and stucture with surface based observations. Pretty neat. Buoy action is too spotty to make solid calls but you go with what you have.


ok how are you doing that? I tried it and cant get any sort of radar or cloud cover
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INV/94/L
MARK
19.1N/53.0W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Are any of the computer models predicting development of the wave that just came off of Africa?
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Did anybody here know that the heat index is actually required to be taken in the shade? So out in the sun it could be 5 degrees higher. Interesting fact of the day.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Oddly enough FOX NEWS has the best ratings of all the cable news outlets and their average viewer is more highly educated.


More highly educated than what?


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Speaking of Pensacola, I saw a recent video where oil tar covered the "whitest beaches in the world" and the tide coming in was bubbling, is this possibly caused by the dispersants?
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


If you believe the current model runs (over land), then I don't think that changes my suggestion.....It would basically have to lift to the North right now to avoid the land interaction (Looks like a TS to me right now by the way)...
It definitely is improving on satellite but from the information the NHC is providing us with the COC is rather far from any land.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting scottsvb:
FoxNews actually does have the best ratings. BTW that post about the 2 Hurricanes.. can you post a link? For all we know, you wrote it. LOL


Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see we have 94L

MINE MINE MINE!!!!!!!
This is the one thats been worrying me. It's the wave that was pulled north along with a lot of moisture by that low level trough a few days ago around 38W.
It's an Invest with no floater.. I feel so cheap and used.
Everything is in place to take it north if it develops at all. MAR is relaxing and TUTT is just north of PR causing some shear and if it develops will push it north so it should follow the model tracks. Regardless I'm relocating to the boat this after noon to be ready to move it if needed. If it does push due west another 24 hours and then develop while the TUTT is moving west as it is forecast to do I could have a developing TS on top of me. Or if the Bogus center they picked for the model initiation end up developing more to the south.
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
INV/93/L
MARK
16.5N/82.1W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting NOLALawyer:


That is not how it works. Private Lines insurance companies will drop you after a major H/O loss, or raise your premiums to the stratosphere.

WYO carriers will not. They are paid commission on claims, so there is no incentive to lowball, drop, or otherwise play insurance games. The program was designed this way to give the companies incentive to pay. The more they pay, the more they earn. Plus, it is not private funds that they are paying out. It is U.S. Treasury funds, i.e. your tax dollars.

Mike


I still think we're missing each other. Or maybe I'm just being stupid, lol. I AM talking about private insurance companies prior to Katrina. So in your words, private companies would drop you or sky rocket your rates after a major loss. This is exactly what I'm saying.

This is not the case NOW as we are all mostly under the federal program (though written through private) and they can't do that. But I was talking about homeowners being dropped right after they made ONE major claim after Katrina. Which personally I think is BS.
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459. Skyepony (Mod)
94L Ascat
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The COC is located over 100 miles away from any land interaction.


If you believe the current model runs (over land), then I don't think that changes my suggestion.....It would basically have to lift to the North right now to avoid the land interaction (Looks like a TS to me right now by the way)...
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Alright I got the Honey Do List done just in time to watch recon enter 93L...Since it is 1,000 degrees outside I must rehydrate so I can see straight haha.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So far the best perspective I've come across on the location for 93L is using the interactive radar and weather station feature from the "Wundermap" out of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. This is allowing me to analyze the cloud movement and stucture with surface based observations. Pretty neat. Buoy action is too spotty to make solid calls but you go with what you have.
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un less you all are looking for a 24hr banned can we get back too 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114702
Quoting atmoaggie:

Maroon is this color:

Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting OneDay:
I'd say 93l is barely a TD right now, if at all.

Either the low is so extremely broad that there's no way it can tighten up and consolidate storms enough to be considered Alex before landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula

or...

The COC is actually further east and south of the current NHC fix and the system will be so far south that it moves over a huge chuck of Central American and Mexican real estate before (and if) it even reaches the GOM.

Actually, both scenarios may be correct. The major blow up of convection on the ESE "side" of 93l could very well be a smaller COC rotating around the much broader low. That happens a lot with developing systems until they really get a good, well defined senter.

I'm less curious to see what wind speed and pressures the HH finds and much more interested in where they fix the center. Further north = greater risk to GOM, further south = very little risk to GOM.
That makes no sense.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
FoxNews actually does have the best ratings. BTW that post about the 2 Hurricanes.. can you post a link? For all we know, you wrote it. LOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Isn't maroon like a dark brownish color? Lol.

Maroon is this color:



Looking more and more right for a TD in the surface wind obs:

(Click for full size)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
94L.INVEST
93L.INVEST

East Pacific
05E.DARBY
04E.CELIA

Central Pacific

West Pacific

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
90S.INVEST
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Floodman:


You misunderstood them; your insurance company is REQUIRED to pay you on losses clearly caused by covered peril; if a CAT3 blows in and takes off your roof, they owe you for the roof, reagrdless of the oil, if the damage to your roof is casued by wind...if the surge flows in and floods your house, they owe your for the flood damage...BP owes you for the oil damage (or at least, that's the idea here)

Where would you get the idea that carriers won't pay for covered peril?


Here is the communication breakdown: Without a Pollution Rider, loss due strictly to oil will not be paid.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
So many trolls.
Im out.
Don't go. Just ignore them.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Fl30258713:

It's the most entertaining source for misinformation.




Keep drinking the kool-aid....
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
A maroon? *moron?


"maroon" it's an old bugs bunny quote from back in the day.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
93L is looking more impressive this morning and not sure what the HH will find but it is "so" close to land that I have to beleive that significant interaction with/over land over the next 24 hours will negate the ground it has made this morning and everything (as far as Gulf possibilities) might have to wait until we see what is left when the remnants make it into the Gulf. However, the the US notwithstabnding, I feel really bad for the folks in Honduras/Belize, etc, areas right now; they are going to suffer some devastating floods life-threatening in the short term.
The COC is located over 100 miles away from any land interaction.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
So many trolls.
Im out.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Oddly enough FOX NEWS has the best ratings of all the cable news outlets and their average viewer is more highly educated.


Correct. Country is still center / right. But lets face it, they don't seem to "do" weather well. lol
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
A maroon? *moron?


HAve you never watched Bugs Bunny? How old are you, anyway?
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I'd say 93l is barely a TD right now, if at all.

Either the low is so extremely broad that there's no way it can tighten up and consolidate storms enough to be considered Alex before landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula

or...

The COC is actually further east and south of the current NHC fix and the system will be so far south that it moves over a huge chuck of Central American and Mexican real estate before (and if) it even reaches the GOM.

Actually, both scenarios may be correct. The major blow up of convection on the ESE "side" of 93l could very well be a smaller COC rotating around the much broader low. That happens a lot with developing systems until they really get a good, well defined center.

I'm less curious to see what wind speed and pressures the HH finds and much more interested in where they fix the center. Further north = greater risk to GOM, further south = very little risk to GOM.
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Here's JB's take on 93L this morn.



I am quite a bit more bullish than TPC on the low pressure in the western Caribbean. They have a 60 percent of a tropical cyclone and say "THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS." I think by objective standards, it will be a storm, though again I never know what TPC will do once they have taken a stand on something. My take is this will come across the Yucatan and head for northeastern Mexico or Texas, and that the U.S. hurricane models are too far east, but this is a warning shot...
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Celia is an annular hurricane if I've ever seen one!



93L is expected to enter the Yucatan, but once it enters the Gulf it will encounter waters of SST 30C+. Since GFS is near the center of the model spread, the GFS ensemble points to Louisiana, I say that a landfall on western Louisiana looks likely but it is too early to determine a track beyond guesswork. Remember that Ana last year was supposed to enter the Gulf as a TS, and 99L in 2007 made it all the way across the Caribbean and into Belize without development.



94L is approaching an area where SSTs are above normal and have warmed significantly in the past week. Notice that the +2C anomaly now extends to 50W, whereas three days ago it went only to 60W, which means that some of the heat from the Gulf is pooling eastwards toward Spain around the southern edge of the cool sector of the Atlantic tripole (warm-cool-warm). The system is also fairly large, about 6 x 13 degrees wide (latxlon).

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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
A maroon? *moron?
Isn't maroon like a dark brownish color? Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
93L is looking more impressive this morning and not sure what the HH will find but it is "so" close to land that I have to beleive that significant interaction with/over land over the next 24 hours will negate the ground it has made this morning and everything (as far as Gulf possibilities) might have to wait until we see what is left when the remnants make it into the Gulf. However, the the US notwithstabnding, I feel really bad for the folks in Honduras/Belize, etc, areas right now; they are going to suffer some devastating floods life-threatening in the short term.
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I heard that 93L(future Alex),that if it gained alot of strength,that it would feel the trough causing it to turn towards florida,after it enters the gulf of mexico.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Oddly enough FOX NEWS has the best ratings of all the cable news outlets and their average viewer is more highly educated.

It's the most entertaining source for misinformation.

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Quoting jpsb:
The rig has nothing to do with any state, it is (or was) a FEDERALLY licensed and FEDERALLY regulated rig. Blame the feds not any particular state.
Florida is proof that the feds don't force it on a state that doesn't want it, though. I'm not one of these "hate the federal government" people.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Navy seems to think this is going to Belize... almost due west.
Seems wrong to me.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
The track the Navy Post is where it would end up if it continued in the same direction.. kind of like the XTRAP. Its last TCFA had a NW direction.
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Quoting Fl30258713:


ROFLMAO, That's sad and pathetic. What a maroon.
A maroon? *moron?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.