93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

Share this Blog
8
+

The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 529 - 479

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Quoting Levi32:
WNW winds out of Puerto Lempira, Honduras. The circulation is still closed.
As expected. We will likely have a tropical depression within 6 hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Moving NW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


ok how are you doing that? I tried it and cant get any sort of radar or cloud cover


Make sure the radar, weather stations and satellite boxes are checked.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting houstonstormguy:
Didn't mean to get off on a political news discussion with my post from Fox news.

My point is that ALL news outlets are sloppy reporting the weather. This needs to change. How can we properly educate the public about safety and tropical storm preparedness with this kind of sloppy and inaccurate journalism?



Teach Weather and Disaster/Emergency Preparation in the schools as early as First Grade.

It will help a whole generation.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting claire4385:
On the oil spill topic, my husband and I went to Holly beach yesterday, which is in Cameron parish. There were sooooo many dead fish that the tide pushed in. If we have a hurricane in the next week.... there's no telling what else may be pushed on shore besides the oil :S.


Perversely, I just watched the ROV cam on one of the Q4000's ROV's as it was being lowered into the water. I got a good look of the HUGE flame of oil and gas being flared off by Q4000.

But when it went below the surface, there was not a hint of an oil slick at that spot, and there was a school of large and apparently healthy Tuna swimming around the area and in front of the ROV camera.

Crazy! The ecosystem seems to be doing better at the surface of ground zero than at the beaches hundreds of miles away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
why is 93L makeing land fall in MX




Depends on whether it gets pushed west by the ridge building over the CONUS or lifted northwards by the trough. It could even stall near Mexico, loop counterclockwise then head northeast toward Louisiana.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Actually looks pretty stationary to me right now and the steering currents are almost weak/non-existant around it at the moment per the latest CIMSS charts if I am reading them correctly....But I can't commit to a due North movement at this time...... :)


look at the windscat or ascat path last night, the thing was due east of nicaragua/honduras, now it's well to the NE, its moving NNW right now, slowly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

686

WHXX01 KWBC 251454

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1454 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100625 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100625 1200 100626 0000 100626 1200 100627 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 57.8W 19.6N 60.2W 21.1N 62.0W 22.6N 63.2W

BAMD 17.8N 57.8W 19.7N 58.7W 21.7N 59.5W 23.6N 60.5W

BAMM 17.8N 57.8W 19.3N 59.5W 20.9N 60.9W 22.5N 62.0W

LBAR 17.8N 57.8W 19.5N 59.1W 21.0N 60.3W 22.3N 61.2W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100627 1200 100628 1200 100629 1200 100630 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.9N 64.4W 26.5N 65.6W 29.3N 65.5W 32.7N 63.9W

BAMD 25.1N 61.6W 28.1N 62.8W 31.0N 62.8W 33.4N 60.5W

BAMM 23.9N 63.1W 26.7N 64.7W 29.7N 64.9W 32.8N 63.0W

LBAR 23.5N 62.0W 25.4N 62.9W 27.0N 63.0W 28.3N 64.3W

SHIP 47KTS 55KTS 55KTS 49KTS

DSHP 47KTS 55KTS 55KTS 49KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 57.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 56.0W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 53.1W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

Maroon is this color:



Looking more and more right for a TD in the surface wind obs:

(Click for full size)


Here are my the colors of my almae matres, you'll never guess them. LOL

You will never see these colors in a Hurricane.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting utilaeastwind:
LOOKS TO ME THAT THE COC IS AT 16N 82W TRAVELING WESTWARD.

IT ALSO IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A TD.


Perhaps Recon will help you locate the Capslock button as well as a vortex.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Floater - Visible Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
515. IKE
Quoting CaptainUnderpants:
I'm not a troll, i'm just lonely


Oh my.

Wrong outlet.

Try Facebook or MySpace.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Didn't mean to get off on a political news discussion with my post from Fox news.

My point is that ALL news outlets are sloppy reporting the weather. This needs to change. How can we properly educate the public about safety and tropical storm preparedness with this kind of sloppy and inaccurate journalism?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



If ya gotta ask.....


If you don't give the what then the statement is meaningless.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5953
Quoting CaptainUnderpants:
I really need to get married, just think, on our honeymoon, we can see a hurricane together!


Your inability to follow simple Blog rules probably indirectly has something to do with the fact you're having a tough time finding somebody to marry you! This is a Tropical Weather Blog, stay on topic or YOU WILL BE BANNED!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WNW winds out of Puerto Lempira, Honduras. The circulation is still closed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:


and it is lifting to the north.. stop paying attention to the models, and start paying attention to your eyes and your own tracking abilities..


Actually looks pretty stationary to me right now and the steering currents are almost weak/non-existant around it at the moment per the latest CIMSS charts if I am reading them correctly....But I can't commit to a due North movement at this time...... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOOKS TO ME THAT THE COC IS AT 16N 82W TRAVELING WESTWARD.

IT ALSO IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A TD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
506. jpsb
Quoting Dropsonde:
Florida is proof that the feds don't force it on a state that doesn't want it, though. I'm not one of these "hate the federal government" people.
Do you have oil on your beaches? If so that oil did not come from a La rig, or a Tx rig or a Ms rig. It came from a federally licensed and regulated rig. I don't know why this is so hard to understand. La, Tx, Ms and Al had NOTHING to do with this spill.
I just hope 93L does not push oil on to your beanches or anyone else's. I am routing for a Mexico or Texas hit (even thou I live in Texas) because I do not want a oil-tar cane. That would be horrible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
505. IKE
Quoting Hurricanes101:
hey Ike does GFS Version 2 update later than the original GFS?

Cuz I have both pages bookmarked now and the GFS V2 still has yesterdays' 12Z run


May not be running the newer 12z version. It's always been with 5-10 minutes of the original one. I've been checking too.

By the way, the original GFS kind of loses 93L over the south central GOM after crossing the Yucatan.

The moisture gets pulled toward the northern GOM coast.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, June 25th, with Video
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon latest coordinates:

16:15:00Z
- 23.617N 87.033W


They are closing in on 93L now, just east of the Yucatan. They should be reporting us before 2 p.m.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow! There are people wishing this oil catastrophe on others? Really? Unbelievable! And before you get this holier than thou attitude about that nasty oil. Look at your life and get rid of everything made from petro chemicals. Go ahead. I'll wait. This was a horrible thing to have happen. Nobody deserves this. Get off your soapbox just because your state has a bad case of NIMBY! I guess everyone who's out of work because of the offshore drilling stoppage deserve that too? Unbelievable!

As far as insurance goes, I'm sure we all know the horror stories despite what some are saying. But I think the worst thing I heard last night is that you can't renew your flood policy right now if you didn't do it by May 30.
My home owners policy has always had a clause about not paying for chemicals, pollution, something lik that.So I guess that would include damage from oil. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
. prior content deleted, quotes messed up.

I do find it rather amusing that the smartest folks watch The Daily Show, where the host has made it his mission in life to "expose" FOX.

And check that you have the latest version of Adobe Flash Player ... it has had some issues lately.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
498. Skyepony (Mod)
Cecelia MIMIC..not for a slow internet connection..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey Ike does GFS Version 2 update later than the original GFS?

Cuz I have both pages bookmarked now and the GFS V2 still has yesterdays' 12Z run
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
495. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 82.5W
EXTENDED N INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE MOVING W ACROSS THE SE GULF. THE WAVE
WILL MOVE W-NW AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE SAT EVENING
AND ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF SUN AND MON. LOW PRES ALONG
THE WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE REACHING LAND LATE SAT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN AFTER
IT EMERGES OVER THE SW GULF MON THROUGH TUE...AS IT TAKES A
GENERAL NW MOTION.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
On the oil spill topic, my husband and I went to Holly beach yesterday, which is in Cameron parish. There were sooooo many dead fish that the tide pushed in. If we have a hurricane in the next week.... there's no telling what else may be pushed on shore besides the oil :S.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


If you believe the current model runs (over land), then I don't think that changes my suggestion.....It would basically have to lift to the North right now to avoid the land interaction (Looks like a TS to me right now by the way)...


and it is lifting to the north.. stop paying attention to the models, and start paying attention to your eyes and your own tracking abilities..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon latest coordinates:

16:15:00Z
- 23.617N 87.033W
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Fl30258713:

It's the most entertaining source for misinformation.



NOT!!! Its the most unobama media mania source for information.. Liberals hate that it is ALWAYS # 1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I would not be suprised to have this jump to TS strength once the HH are there..

the fact hot towers are forming over the center.. already is showing me that this is trying to organize and develop quickly.. tonight will be scary considering this is how wilma looked before it went from a weak TS to a cat 5 in one night... The center is moving NNW right now, not NW based on visible satellite, and not suprising considering in JUNE storms do not move W/WNW into the Yucatan and then towards TEXAS or the western gulf because in JUNE these systems favor the northern gulf and florida.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting houstonstormguy:
What I don't understand is why any news organization wouldn't make WU one of its top 3 resources when it comes to tropical weather.

I found this site by accident and have learned so much from the senior bloggers here.



Good point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
why is 93L makeing land fall in MX



???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Speaking of Pensacola, I saw a recent video where oil tar covered the "whitest beaches in the world" and the tide coming in was bubbling, is this possibly caused by the dispersants?


I'm from Pensacola and I saw that. I have no idea. That was pretty strange.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
485. Story
Stormchaser: He right, don't leave because of the trolls... too many of us are lurking and learning from you guys still... heck I think I learn more just coasting the posts these past 2 years..

ezcColony: if you want to know what happens when a tropical storm goes through the Gulf with an oil spill present, look back to 1979 when the Mexican rig lost gallons into the Gulf. Naysayers talked about oil on the beaches and the destruction... but much of it was gone within 5 years... partly due to a tropical storm that pulled into the Gulf... go read.

Now back to my shadow I go :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
why is 93L makeing land fall in MX
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
Quoting reedzone:
Morning everyone, 93L is on the verge of TD status. I believe recon will indeed find Tropical Depression One and TS warnings will be issued for the Yucatan. Land interaction will tear the storm apart as shown with the GFDL. I will have a full update later after recon is in 93L for a while. 94L? Haven't had much time to look into it, don't see much with it yet.


Tear the storm apart?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

That's what i'm doing....

Nice and cool here... 61.5°F to be exact.

nice it actually is only 90 degrees here however dew point is up to 75 right now. Hmm sign for afternoon TS?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:


More highly educated than what?



cbs???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 529 - 479

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
74 °F
Mostly Cloudy