93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Goodnight all...we'll have TD1 in the morning.
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Lot of moisture to work with, and yes Teddy, very cold cloud tops are maintaining.

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The reconnaissance aircraft should be inside 93L within 90 minutes.
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check out location of anticyclone.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11347
93L has impressively maintained -80C cloudtops as the day has worn on instead of dying out as we've seen in the past with this system.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
Quoting Hurricanes101:


exactly
Yup.
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Quoting IKE:
17N and 83W....no landfall for a while....


exactly
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Quoting 69Viking:


Your inability to follow simple Blog rules probably indirectly has something to do with the fact you're having a tough time finding somebody to marry you! This is a Tropical Weather Blog, stay on topic or YOU WILL BE BANNED!


This is not a comment on you Viking, but I can't believe that people are still biting on the hooks that the man behind the shower curtain keeps casting in the water. He is so easy to spot. And he has a LOT of alts going at the moment. They are breeding like rabbits. And getting a lot of nibbles and bites.

Ask yourself three questions. Is this a new avatar? Is the name a bit goofy? And are the questions asked not *quite* what you would expect to see from someone new? If yes, yes and yes, or just yes to the first and third, swim right by that hook. Eventually he will grow tired of fishing.
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570. IKE
17N and 83W....no landfall for a while....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good afternoon. Any move north will be good for 93L.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11347
Floodman I may be mistaken but that is what we have been hearing here in on the gulf in tx. At this time the NFIP ( national flood insurance Anyone trying to get a new policy not renew a policy is being rejected.


Flood insurance program expired
Comments 1 | Recommend 0
June 21, 2010 11:13 AM
Editor:
Due to inaction by Congress, on May 31 the National Flood Insurance Program expired and has not been reauthorized. Without the NFIP, property owners in designated flood zones across much of Texas cannot obtain flood insurance to protect their properties. As a result, those seeking to purchase property in a flood zone are not able to obtain a mortgage, without purchasing flood insurance.
This lapse in judgment on Congress’ part could have devastating results for the recovering Texas real estate market as families and homeowners seeking flood insurance are left without an option to purchase and those with expiring policies are left unprotected and unable to renew.
June marks the official start of Texas’ hurricane season, and many Texas homeowners are left with the added worry that their property might not be protected. If we have learned anything in the wake of Hurricanes Ike and Rita, it is that flood insurance is a necessity for Texas homeowners.
Hurricanes are not the only source of flooding as Central Texas, Houston and Dallas have all experienced flash floods
in recent years.
For some time now, Congress has been approving a series of short-term extensions of the NFIP, but this is the third time the program has lapsed this year. Previously, on March 28, the NFIP expired for several weeks due to Congress’ failure to agree on how to pay for extensions of other government programs and subsidies that were combined with the latest short-term NFIP extension.
As a Texas Realtor, I urge Congress to take immediate action on a lasting NFIP extension to protect a recovering real estate market and the millions of taxpayers that rely on the program for flood insurance.
Bill Jones, chairman
Texas Association of Realtors
Temple
Via the Internet


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At 16:35:00Z (last observation), the reconnaissance aircraft was 68 miles (110 km) to the NNE (32°) of Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

Latest recon coordinates: 16:35:00Z - 21.983N 86.267W
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I hope someone soon starts posting the Recon overlay map so we can start see the wind direction and speed
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Quoting scottsvb:

93L has looked its best when? Over the past 1hr 30 minutes.. Finally T-Storms..enough for a Classified TD are firing over the LLC. Yesterday there was nothing... last night into this morning there was popcorn T-storms as the main convergence line of T-Storm was down south off the Nicaragua coast..this was due to SSE winds and SSW winds converging. Now this has become more of a feeder band and also allowing T-Storms to form over the LLC. I feel now there is a 60% chance of a TD when recon goes out there. 80% by later tonight if the T-Storms improve.
Path will be W to WNW tonight and NW by Saturday. Models in the short term might be too slow on moving this into NE Belieze or the Yucitan.. by Saturday morning if they find this a TD in the next few hours.. we will have a TS.
Future path remains uncertain as the more W it goes before reaching land.. the more decoupling will happen on Sunday. GFS says a decoupling will happen which I said might happen a few days ago after the Yucitan. Leaving the LLC NW off the Yucitan with drier air..while a midlevel center moves NE offshore Clearwater by Tuesday morning. Or if 93L gets stronger quicker and moves inland closer to Cozumel-Cancun..it wont lose much intensity and get pulled more N and could be a stronger TS in the GOM threatening Mobile-Cedar Key. Does this have a chance to be a Hurricane? Well its too early to tell. My first though is on decoupling Sunday. The trough is strong and will stall over the N GOM during the week sending impulses and weak lows (non tropical) ENE across florida. There is a slight chance that if this does decouple, a new LLC will form before making landfall on Tuesday. Or again, if it takes a more early NNW path near Cancun..it may hold together in the GOM. Time will tell along with movement.

17N 83W
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Just got on to check the status of 93L. Is this still looking to be an issue down the road for Mexico,South Texas,Upper Texas Coast or Louisianna?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting jpsb:
Do you have oil on your beaches? If so that oil did not come from a La rig, or a Tx rig or a Ms rig. It came from a federally licensed and regulated rig. I don't know why this is so hard to understand. La, Tx, Ms and Al had NOTHING to do with this spill.
I just hope 93L does not push oil on to your beanches or anyone else's. I am routing for a Mexico or Texas hit (even thou I live in Texas) because I do not want a oil-tar cane. That would be horrible.


I agree. Im in TX and would rather a landfall here or Mexico to spare the beaches in other states..
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Quoting Grothar:


Woops, wrong image bet you still will never guess, atmo:




UCF
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561. IKE
550....that's a good forecast for 93L.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
well for sure we do have TD 1
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
93L is finally vertically stacked with its mid-level center, which is why it has taken off this morning. When you finally bundle that heat and allow it to feedback, it's off to the races for 93L. Development should be gradual, not explosive as it approaches the Yucatan, as the system is still large and working on tightening up the circulation, but there is nothing stopping it now except its crossing of the Yucatan which will slow it down.
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Quoting IKE:
Looks to me like 93L is moving WNW toward the Yucatan. I could be wrong though.
Looks NW to me, but slow motion overall.
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I just checked, and it does look like one has made it a weak hurricane at 72 hrs. I saw another (HWFI) send it through the FL panhandle. Interesting.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


ECMWF, GFDL, HWRF, and CMC have all predicted in the past that 93L would become a major Hurricane. Not the case today though.
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556. IKE
Looks to me like 93L is moving WNW toward the Yucatan. I could be wrong though.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting chrisbaskind:


Ask Bugs Bunny.



lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
Quoting stormpetrol:
Depending on what winds they find, it could go straight to TS Alex.
I'm sure they will find some 40mph winds, but are unlikely to be sustained.
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Quoting leo305:


there is no way it has been moving WNW, if it has been moving WNW, it would have been on the coast right now.. and certainly less than 100 miles away from the NICA/HONDURA border. The thing has been moving NW/NNW


um you are aware the center fix is NE of Honduras not east of it right?

a WNW movement would still keep it offshore
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At 16:25:00Z (last observation), the reconnaissance aircraft was 115 miles (185 km) to the N (5°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

Recon coordinates as of 16:25:00Z: 22.800N 86.667W
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93L has looked its best when? Over the past 1hr 30 minutes.. Finally T-Storms..enough for a Classified TD are firing over the LLC. Yesterday there was nothing... last night into this morning there was popcorn T-storms as the main convergence line of T-Storm was down south off the Nicaragua coast..this was due to SSE winds and SSW winds converging. Now this has become more of a feeder band and also allowing T-Storms to form over the LLC. I feel now there is a 60% chance of a TD when recon goes out there. 80% by later tonight if the T-Storms improve.
Path will be W to WNW tonight and NW by Saturday. Models in the short term might be too slow on moving this into NE Belieze or the Yucitan.. by Saturday morning if they find this a TD in the next few hours.. we will have a TS.
Future path remains uncertain as the more W it goes before reaching land.. the more decoupling will happen on Sunday. GFS says a decoupling will happen which I said might happen a few days ago after the Yucitan. Leaving the LLC NW off the Yucitan with drier air..while a midlevel center moves NE offshore Clearwater by Tuesday morning. Or if 93L gets stronger quicker and moves inland closer to Cozumel-Cancun..it wont lose much intensity and get pulled more N and could be a stronger TS in the GOM threatening Mobile-Cedar Key. Does this have a chance to be a Hurricane? Well its too early to tell. My first though is on decoupling Sunday. The trough is strong and will stall over the N GOM during the week sending impulses and weak lows (non tropical) ENE across florida. There is a slight chance that if this does decouple, a new LLC will form before making landfall on Tuesday. Or again, if it takes a more early NNW path near Cancun..it may hold together in the GOM. Time will tell along with movement.
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Quoting CaneWarning:

I take Rachel Maddow on MSNBC anyday, she's a Rhodes Scholar. Does Fox News have anyone who can say that?

Rhodes Scholar means that they never left their college dorm room and never had a cold one.
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Quoting Grothar:


Here are my the colors of my almae matres, you'll never guess them. LOL

You will never see these colors in a Hurricane.




http://www.heidelberg.edu/sites/herald.heidelberg.edu/files/2C_mascot_sm.jpg


Woops, wrong image bet you still will never guess, atmo:


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Quoting Hurricanes101:


thanks, looks to me the system is drifting WNW


there is no way it has been moving WNW, if it has been moving WNW, it would have been on the coast right now.. and certainly less than 100 miles away from the NICA/HONDURA border. The thing has been moving NW/NNW
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Depending on what winds they find, it could go straight to TS Alex.
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Quoting houstonstormguy:


I agree Pat and am very appreciative of the work you do providing informative links on this site. Thanks and keep up the good work!

Your take on 93L?


Im not a met so I mostly observe....

93L has potential but has to move and Navigate to the GOM ..and most Guidance takes it there in some form.

So review ones plan and stock up now to avoid any rush next week.

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Hi Pat - just got my daughter a barometer for her 7th birthday
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Gig 'EM!!!

Anyway, things are looking very good moisture and shear-wise for the further development of 93L:

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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
A maroon? *moron?


Ask Bugs Bunny.
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah it probably is one. They will wait for recon to confirm before issuing advisories.
Exactly. As soon as recon finds west winds near the 12z center fix I would be looking at for a renumber.
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Quoting EarthMuffin:
Have any of the models actually predicted 93L becoming a hurricane? Last models I checked show it becoming a weak TS at best, and GOMEX landfall predictions look like a game of pin the tail on the donkey...

I find 94L much more interesting (and thankfully much less of a threat to the GOMEX).


ECMWF, GFDL, HWRF, and CMC have all predicted in the past that 93L would become a major Hurricane. Not the case today though.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
Quoting CaneWarning:

I take Rachel Maddow on MSNBC anyday, she's a Rhodes Scholar. Does Fox News have anyone who can say that?


I bet lots of 'em at FOX NEWS could say that Rachael Maddow is a Rhodes Scholar.
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Quoting Patrap:



Teach Weather and Disaster/Emergency Preparation in the schools as early as First Grade.

It will help a whole generation.



I agree Pat and am very appreciative of the work you do providing informative links on this site. Thanks and keep up the good work!

Your take on 93L?
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Quoting MrNatural:


Make sure the radar, weather stations and satellite boxes are checked.


thanks, looks to me the system is drifting WNW
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Recon entering the Yucatan channel.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting rattnroll:


NOT!!! Its the most unobama media mania source for information.. Liberals hate that it is ALWAYS # 1


I'm really biting my tongue and trying to protect the integrity of this blog to keep it about the Tropics.

I 100% disagree about FNC but this isn't the place for that conversation. I'm not out to spam, but if you want to tell me about it please contact me through my political web site at Super Had Enough and then we can protect the focus of the forum.

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Have any of the models actually predicted 93L becoming a hurricane? Last models I checked show it becoming a weak TS at best, and GOMEX landfall predictions look like a game of pin the tail on the donkey...

I find 94L much more interesting (and thankfully much less of a threat to the GOMEX).
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
As expected. We will likely have a tropical depression within 6 hours.


Yeah it probably is one. They will wait for recon to confirm before issuing advisories.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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