93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114916
Recon getting closer to 93L.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
699...I'm not admin, but...I would delete that...quickly!



done
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114916
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Developing CDO:
Precisely.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21102
No recon data sent for 30 minutes. What's the deal?


EDIT: Never mind there's the new data.
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724. Skyepony (Mod)
Hurricane hunters are descending into 93L
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Quoting LaCoast:

Woah no way it develops that fast!


Wouldn't be suprised.. I know it's june, but the atmosphere is more late julyish, and Wilma went from a TS to a CAT 5 in a night, not saying this will do that, but the convection that fired up over the center is indicative of a rapidly developing system from here on out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
722. xcool
reedzone YOU CRAZY
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
692.

This happen to you?
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Quoting GBguy88:
Maybe I'm out of line, but here goes. I can understand the want for something tropical to develop, I love watching storms too, but to all the people that are wishing 93L onto bigger and better things...just take into consideration what it's coming into if it hits the Gulf. I saw people on their knees in tears surrounded by oil out at the beach yesterday. And then there's the charter captain who shot himself. It's wrecking everything some people have ever known or lived for. We've seen a small fraction of what the oil spill has to offer, and chances are, a hit from any size storm is going to generate enough wind/wave action to put serious amounts of oil on the beach (or mass amounts into the Gulf Stream?). I think if any year is the year for people to be downcasters, it should be this one. I'm sorry, and I think a lot of Gulf coasters would share my sentiment here, but I do not want 93L anywhere near the Gulf of Mexico. "Exciting" is not the appropriate word to describe the development of 93L. You are more than entitled to be glad to have something to watch, it just seems that the attitude is almost jubilant for some.


I live on the Gulf Coast, I know people who are being affected.. I've prayed every night for this oil to just go away.. the last thing we need is a Hurricane in the Gulf. Yet words can't stop it, only nature and God can. Its just been our tough luck that the BP oil spill happened on the verge of a possibly very active hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico. Its not fair this is happening, peoples lives are being ruined already.. people know that on here.. I've not seen any wishcasting except from the newer bloggers who don't really understand the situation.
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Floater - Visible Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
I think they are making advisories. they took the discussion down.
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Quoting sailingallover:
I WANT A FLOATER FOR 94L NOW!!!!!!!!!



Link
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Quoting YourCommonSense:
I expect "debbie downer" (Adrian) to walk in and ruin the fun for us.


Always there to tell you 'bout a new disease,
A car accident or killer bees,
You'll beg her to spare you, "Debbie, PLEASE..."
But you can't stop Debbie Downer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am located at 16.10N 86.90W on the island Utila.

Winds are light from the west with light showers this morning.

I expect things to change fairly quickly though. Diving canceled and boats in the lagoon.
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shhhh dont make 93L mad or it may this do that
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114916
looks like they are going in lower
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Developing CDO:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
711. IKE
699...I'm not admin, but...I would delete that...quickly!
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Quoting txag91met:


Exactly...go to mexico and die 93L.

That would cause a major problem in Mexico and I don't want to wish disaster on anybody. Wherever this thing goes it will cause trouble.
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Quoting leo305:
I really expect this to jump up to TS status, and rapidly gain hurricane stature tonight.. this thing is in PERFECT conditions for that to happen

Woah no way it develops that fast!
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

The TWO isn't out yet, just the TWD.


Interesting, they took it down. It was up a few minutes ago.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5997
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If we don't have a TD before 5 PM each one of you bloggers give me 2 crows.




oder up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114916
Quoting Patrap:


Yeah,..actually its down.

Its called descending
ROFLMAO! Now kidding Pat.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21102
Quoting Patrap:
Maybe the Three will show a shift to the EAST



very likely
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Just an FYI, 93L has winds of 35mph

AL, 93, 2010062512, , BEST, 0, 165N, 825W, 30, 1005, LO,




thats old
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114916
Quoting ElConando:
The two will be something like this

DUE TO COPYRIGHT VIOLATIONS ON THE SITE "WEATHER UNDERGROUND." WE REFUSE TO PUT OUT ANY MORE TWO'S UNTIL THOSE WHO VIOLATED SAID COPYRIGHT ARE BROUGHT TO JUSTICE.


LOL... sorry, was just saying what it would look like.. my bad. I think I'm looking at a Tropical Depression, nice new burst of deep convection right over the center.
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702. xcool
I GUESS I WAS RIGTH
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting reedzone:


If that's not a TD, then BLOW ME DOWN!!! ;)
If we don't have a TD before 5 PM each one of you bloggers give me 2 crows.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21102
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Something's up.


Yeah,..actually its down.

Its called descending
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114916
698. xcool
reedzone LMAO LMAO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Just an FYI, 93L has winds of 35mph

AL, 93, 2010062512, , BEST, 0, 165N, 825W, 30, 1005, LO,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I WANT A FLOATER FOR 94L NOW!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maybe the Three will show a shift to the EAST
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Impressive, especially when compared to yesterday.
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Quoting ElConando:
The two will be something like this

DUE TO COPYRIGHT VIOLATIONS ON THE SITE "WEATHER UNDERGROUND." WE REFUSE TO PUT OUT ANY MORE TWO'S UNTIL THOSE WHO VIOLATED SAID COPYRIGHT ARE BROUGHT TO JUSTICE.


Wait till you get one like this :)

Thank you for your prompt action to remove the NOAA and NWS logos from
your hurricane track weather graphic product. These logos are
trademarks of the U.S. Department of Commerce/NOAA and their use by
private persons or firms on their products implies that a product was
generated by the NOAA or the NWS, when it was not. Such use violates
U.S. trademark law, applicable criminal statutes as well as the terms of
use applicable to NOAA/NWS weather information. We appreciate your
cooperation in resolving this matter.

Sincerely,

Glenn Tallia
Senior Counselor for Atmospheric
and Space Services and Research, NOAA
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


If that's not a TD, then BLOW ME DOWN!!! ;)
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Quoting ElConando:
The two will be something like this

DUE TO COPYRIGHT VIOLATIONS ON THE SITE "WEATHER UNDERGROUND." WE REFUSE TO PUT OUT ANY MORE TWO'S UNTIL THOSE WHO VIOLATED SAID COPYRIGHT ARE BROUGHT TO JUSTICE.


LMAO
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The HH hasnt sent a HDOB in over 20 minutes...

Something's up.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21102
Quoting bappit:


Go read it now, that and the Atlantic discussion.

The TWO isn't out yet, just the TWD.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


WOW
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
This is probably a STUPID question, but I've never used Google Earth before, and how do I refresh it if it doesn't do so automatically??


Nevermind, it's automatic. lol
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
I really expect this to jump up to TS status, and rapidly gain hurricane stature tonight.. this thing is in PERFECT conditions for that to happen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The two will be something like this

DUE TO COPYRIGHT VIOLATIONS ON THE SITE "WEATHER UNDERGROUND." WE REFUSE TO PUT OUT ANY MORE TWO'S UNTIL THOSE WHO VIOLATED SAID COPYRIGHT ARE BROUGHT TO JUSTICE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I suspect the 2 pm TWO will be something like..
'this system has become better organized, and a tropical depression could be forming, an Air Force hurricane hunter is currently investigating the system, there is a high chance, 80%, of this become a tropical depression within the next 48 hours'


If they were gonna say that it'd be more like "nearly 100%"
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Based on google earth looks like Recon Plane is almost there.
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Quoting Patrap:
TWO script-casting ?

Say it aint so



LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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