93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sailingallover:

It's called wishcasting... there is a lot of that here.. I agree the GOM waters outside the loop current just got hot enough on the surface to support a storm but how deep does it go?


LOL, thanks sailingallover!
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Why when i click Invest 94, it says hurricane hunter data, and found 45 mph winds at the surface , pressure 1003... an error or what?
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Quoting CaneWarning:


You had better watch out, Taz may spay you.




lol
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3526. xcool
Tazmanian lol
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not when dealing with a relatively weak system like 01L, but when they send you to do those missions with strong hurricanes, then those are scary.


Actually, that's not true. I have talked to a Hurricane hunter, and they honestly fear systems that are not organized (TD's and TS), mainly because you can get a lot of updrafts and sometimes a center is not as well defined. In Hurricanes, it is easy to fly into, especially once you enter the eye, where conditions are calm. They said that turbulence is worse over an unorganized system.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
TD 1 IS RIP 94L is RIP hurricane season is a bust


lol this kinding
picking a fight i !!!see
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Quoting uplater:



As you can see from the vid that Patrap posted: the towers need not occur around the COC, but it is often a good indicator of where it might be. The colors represent gradients. Red is -70c, and yellow is -80c. Any Greyishness in that yellow is -90c, and that is some seriously heavy mojo for a TD.

Here is another color gradient than the one I posted before from GOES sat. in this the redder the colder.





Okay, I see. I've been looking at some of the GOES images at NOAA's site and I'm seeing a lot of red around where I think the center is of TD-1. No grey, though.

Thank you!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are you drinking taz


You had better watch out, Taz may spay you.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are you drinking taz



yes i had 1000 budlights


now back too TD 1
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As we have seen in the EPAC with Celia and Darby, the intensity on the 00z initialization or any cycle can often be a bit off. But 00z being run as a TD still. Makes since because the 8pm advisory was still 30kt.

AL, 01, 2010062600, , BEST, 0, 166N, 839W, 30, 1004, TD
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
3517. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Tazmanian:
TD 1 IS RIP 94L is RIP hurricane season is a bust


lol this kinding
are you drinking taz
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hey 456 good to see you back
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7505
Quoting mtyweatherfan90:
How come there were guys claiming record sst next to Louisiana, Alabama and MS coasts and the heat content doesn't supports it? Can somebody explain it? Thanks!

It's called wishcasting... there is a lot of that here.. I agree the GOM waters outside the loop current just got hot enough on the surface to support a storm but how deep does it go?
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3514. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.
i guess you can forget the email i just sent ya

good to see ya my brother from a diffent mother
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TD 1 IS RIP 94L is RIP hurricane season is a bust


lol this kinding
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Gotcha lol, worried me for a second. I was thinking 'has CaneWarning been hacked? JFV is that you?'


Nah, when I am joking I normally through in an LOL or two.
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Quoting hurrkat05:
taco i think you should ask the dr about that you are dead wrong..i think other people on here like storm w would tell you it would have little affect on the oil situation...you have your opinion and i have mind..

OK just to let you no we all along the north gulf coast had (Let me Quote)"Higher" than normal Tides here when Ike, Rita, and even Dolly because of the Waves that were produced buy storms that hit Texas coast.... The Oil is not only south of us it is hitting the Shores as we chat right now.... So any storm that comes in from that direction no matter how big it is will (again Quote)"Bring in High Tides".... So to tell me any anyone on this blog that lives here on the North gulf coast will not lbe affected by this storm is (quote)"Wrong"....

Taco :o)
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Hey.I had a dream you come back.
Ok, that proves you are TOO much time on this blog.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
Quoting CaneWarning:


It's a joke...hence the LOL


Gotcha lol, worried me for a second. I was thinking 'has CaneWarning been hacked? JFV is that you?'
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3508. xcool
weather 456 VIP MAN
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Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.



HEY HEY HEY


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Quoting extreme236:
01L should soon begin a more NW track.
Agreed.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct, plenty of time to become a 50 mph TS.
Could become a hurricane before making landfall.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
3504. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
sammywammybamy 12:18 AM GMT on June 26, 2010



ITS HUGE this thing could be a Hurricane if conditons allow.

(Discalimer: Please No "thats what she said" comments.)


I hope we're not THAT immature.
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Glad to see you back, 456!
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Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.


Welcome back. How's your health.
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Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.


Lots of folks have been asking about and been worried about you! Glad to see ya!
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Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.
Hey 456! How are you feeling?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Currently moving at 10 mph, so it should be there in 24 to 30 hours.


Correct, plenty of time to become a 50 mph TS.
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01L should soon begin a more NW track.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.


GREAT to see you 456...
I hope you are doing OK.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
3474. CaneWarning.. REALLY?


It's a joke...hence the LOL
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Quoting extreme236:


It's gonna be in the top file once it comes out Link
Thanks!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
Is that weather456? can not believe it... what happen... vacation?
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IR shows a very large spoking wheel of cold-top thundertorms.
Is center now on land?

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Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.


Weather456!!! How are you man?
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3490. centex
I'm only thinking about the cross over land. If slow will tear it apart over time. If fast and favorable on other side than mex/S. TX issue. We all are hoping it does not go too far north.
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Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.


Boy am I glad to see you! People have been asking about you for a while!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not when dealing with a relatively weak system like 01L, but when they send you to do those missions with strong hurricanes, then those are scary.

You have read Docs account of going into Hugo..in the daytime...
We say this on boat sometimes .OMG WERE ALLL GONNNNNNAAAA DIEEEEEEEEEE!!
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Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.


I see you are alive. Good to see you back brah
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Quoting CaneAddict:


Rapid intensification is not out of the question..VERY hot sea surface temperatures between it and the Yucatan.


Average SSTs before making landfall on the Yucatan are about 29.5C. After the crossing the SSTs go all the way up to 31.5C near Louisiana.

Quoting islagal:
In Isla Mujeres, just off of Cancun. What is the worst we should prepare for and when? Gracias!


Expect winds up to 50 km/h (30 mph), heavy rain, and surge up to 60 cm (2 ft) around Saturday night.

Quoting Tazmanian:
dos any of the mode runs take right overe BP?


NAM, possibly?

Quoting RyanFSU:
Using my new and improved inner-nest (0.083 degree) GFDL map code, I produce some cooler plots of active storms... Quite the impressive development towards the end of the forecast cycle Link



WOW, that's a category three. Which would be worse than Ike for Louisiana.
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3485. Grothar
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

01L One reads almost OIL One . addiction to oil is very very bad.


That must have "slipped" right by me.
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Dr. Masters pointed out that anywhere in the Gulf is game at this point. This storm is 5+ days out from affecting land in the US. There is no way of telling for sure. Just keep a watchful eye.


Quoting watchdog40:
so is it pretty much the opinion here that this will not affect the panhandle at all?
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3483. xcool
Weather456 12 hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
extreme236, can you give me the link for the TAFB numbers?


It's gonna be in the top file once it comes out Link
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
3481. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


RIP TD #1 LOL


LOL.
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3474. CaneWarning.. REALLY?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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