93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:
Time: 19:51:30Z
Coordinates: 17.2833N 81.25W
Acft. Static Air Press: 979.1 mb (~ 28.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 250 meters (~ 820 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.7 mb (~ 29.76 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 157° at 34 knots (From the SSE at ~ 39.1 mph)
Air Temp: 20.7°C (~ 69.3°F)
Dew Pt: 18.0°C (~ 64.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 41 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (~ 0.43 in/hr)



that would make it a strong TS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
I hate when people make statements like that

So if a thunderstorm goes through your area with 86mph wind gusts it should be a hurricane?

dumbest comments ever
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
If they suddenly find a closed surface circulation (a pocket full of W winds) they could very well up it to TS status by those SFMR reports.


Satellite presentation is indicative of a tropical storm.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1775. Patrap
Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 35 knots (~ 40.3mph)


One Healthy raised eyebrow,..

.. as seems the winds are responding to the Convective up tick
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128764
I have a question, and hopefully bloggers aren't too busy to answer. So... how do we know the storm is moving NW ? I've read a few comments on this thing by the upper echelon of bloggers who say its moving NW. How do we know?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I think interaction with Honduras has been hindering it from closing off completely. I see a few west winds from land obs, but nothing from the center yet. This next pass might wrap things up if they can find a west wind. I got a feeling they will this time.
It is a few hundred miles from any land interaction so I doubt it is affecting it in a major way. I agree that we could see some west winds in the next pass, they just found 40mph winds so if it can close that low we'll have TS Alex.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1772. Levi32
Time: 19:51:30Z
Coordinates: 17.2833N 81.25W
Acft. Static Air Press: 979.1 mb (~ 28.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 250 meters (~ 820 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.7 mb (~ 29.76 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 157° at 34 knots (From the SSE at ~ 39.1 mph)
Air Temp: 20.7°C (~ 69.3°F)
Dew Pt: 18.0°C (~ 64.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 41 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (~ 0.43 in/hr)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting MississippiWx:


You're the on typing in caps. Seems like you need to calm down.



lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
1770. unf97
Quoting Patrap:
Shucks..

I look mo Impressive in the IR than Viz easily.



Patrap, Loved the question you posed to Dr. Masters on WWL. Very impressive.
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1769. 7544
we got a big red ball thats getting bigger 93l is very hungry now so td 1 could be born at 5pm imo or even alex
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Quoting powerlineman2:
CALM DOWN ALL IT IS IS A LITTLE THUNDERSTORM AND A LITTLE BIT OF WIND


You're the on typing in caps. Seems like you need to calm down.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1767. OneDay
We had a thunderstorm at my house the other day with 41 mph winds...I wonder if that should have been classified TS Alex?
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Quoting Levi32:


That all depends on how well-together the system is before landfall in the Yucatan, and decoupling will be reluctant to take place anyway with an anticyclone over top...little wind shear to help force the LLC out from under the mid-level feature. They just got back together for the first time in days....they will be celebrating for a while.



I agree totally Levi32. The Anticyclone will help 93L survive better than expected even
once it makes landfall negating much of the usual downgrade/discoupling effects.

If by chance 93L can keep it's center just offshore for awhile we could be looking at a
Rapid Intensification Cycle perhaps even here shortly.

Also the models should be getting a better handle on 93L most likely in the next runs
as 93L's center becomes more pronounced which is likely to stir this blog up when the
new tracks come out.

This is gonna be an exciting next few days! I hope everyone is paying attention and ready.
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
hey look a spay a troll
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
If they suddenly find a closed surface circulation (a pocket full of W winds) they could very well up it to TS status by those SFMR reports.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24199
1763. dearmas
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 19:53Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 11

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Friday, 19:52Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 17.3N 81.3W
Location: 139 miles (223 km) to the S (178°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 150° at 30 knots (From the SSE at ~ 34.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1008 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 160° at 35 knots (From the SSE at ~ 40.2 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 35 knots (~ 40.3mph)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1762. cg2916
Quoting Hurricanes101:


close that low and we have Alex


Yeah, it was SO close, it's probably gotten it's act together, even satellite presentation has gotten way better since they've left it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Close the low and we have TS Alex.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hurricane hunters still investigating... The blog continues to jump to conclusions that it isn't a TD and the HH have yet to finish. Either way, satellite imagery and ASCAT both suggest that there is a closed surface low, let's see if the HH will find this too.


I think interaction with Honduras has been hindering it from closing off completely. I see a few west winds from land obs, but nothing from the center yet. This next pass might wrap things up if they can find a west wind. I got a feeling they will this time.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
CALM DOWN ALL IT IS IS A LITTLE THUNDERSTORM AND A LITTLE BIT OF WIND
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1758. scott39
Quoting IKE:


It died 2 weeks ago.
LOL, I know Ike-- just wanted some attention-- blog is moving too fast!
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1757. Drakoen
Estimated Surface Wind: From 160° at 35 knots (From the SSE at ~ 40.2 mph)
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Quoting IKE:


Tropical Storm 93L:)


lmao post of the day
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1755. hydrus
Quoting Drakoen:
Anybody can claim to be a meteorologist here
But how can we get proof of it Drak?
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

No they arent...they are still going south. They have a specific flight pattern they do. It will be a good 30-45 minutes before it gets anywhere close to the center again.
The only flight pattern I know of is the X over the COC, didn't know that the flight had a specific pattern.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:
41-knot winds observed by SFMR on the east side of the system.


000
URNT15 KNHC 251955
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 32 20100625
194530 1727N 08100W 9768 00272 0075 +255 +180 140021 022 022 000 03
194600 1726N 08100W 9780 00262 0075 +255 +180 139022 022 999 999 03
194630 1725N 08101W 9768 00271 0075 +255 +180 137024 025 019 000 03
194700 1724N 08103W 9787 00255 0074 +255 +180 137025 026 020 000 03
194730 1723N 08104W 9786 00256 0075 +255 +180 136023 024 020 000 03
194800 1722N 08105W 9775 00266 0075 +254 +180 135025 026 021 000 03
194830 1722N 08107W 9774 00270 0078 +242 +180 149030 033 029 000 03
194900 1721N 08108W 9779 00263 0077 +233 +180 153030 031 030 000 00
194930 1720N 08109W 9784 00257 0076 +233 +180 156034 035 031 000 03
195000 1719N 08111W 9778 00263 0076 +231 +180 153032 032 031 000 00
195030 1718N 08112W 9778 00262 0077 +220 +180 157030 033 032 005 00
195100 1717N 08113W 9783 00256 0077 +216 +180 162034 035 033 010 00
195130 1717N 08115W 9791 00250 0077 +207 +180 157034 035 041 011 00
195200 1716N 08116W 9775 00264 0076 +221 +180 152031 033 038 007 00
195230 1715N 08117W 9784 00256 0075 +230 +180 153029 029 031 001 00
195300 1714N 08119W 9783 00255 0075 +225 +180 155026 028 031 007 03
195330 1713N 08120W 9785 00255 0074 +233 +180 148026 027 029 002 00
195400 1713N 08121W 9778 00260 0073 +245 +180 143022 022 024 000 03
195430 1712N 08123W 9778 00259 0072 +242 +180 135021 022 023 000 03
195500 1711N 08124W 9787 00253 0073 +246 +180 148022 023 019 000 00
$$
;


close that low and we have Alex
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RECCO message would indicate a TS per SFMR reports. However.. nothing closed yet.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24199
1751. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:




that would make it a TS


Tropical Storm 93L:)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1750. Levi32
41-knot winds observed by SFMR on the east side of the system.


000
URNT15 KNHC 251955
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 32 20100625
194530 1727N 08100W 9768 00272 0075 +255 +180 140021 022 022 000 03
194600 1726N 08100W 9780 00262 0075 +255 +180 139022 022 999 999 03
194630 1725N 08101W 9768 00271 0075 +255 +180 137024 025 019 000 03
194700 1724N 08103W 9787 00255 0074 +255 +180 137025 026 020 000 03
194730 1723N 08104W 9786 00256 0075 +255 +180 136023 024 020 000 03
194800 1722N 08105W 9775 00266 0075 +254 +180 135025 026 021 000 03
194830 1722N 08107W 9774 00270 0078 +242 +180 149030 033 029 000 03
194900 1721N 08108W 9779 00263 0077 +233 +180 153030 031 030 000 00
194930 1720N 08109W 9784 00257 0076 +233 +180 156034 035 031 000 03
195000 1719N 08111W 9778 00263 0076 +231 +180 153032 032 031 000 00
195030 1718N 08112W 9778 00262 0077 +220 +180 157030 033 032 005 00
195100 1717N 08113W 9783 00256 0077 +216 +180 162034 035 033 010 00
195130 1717N 08115W 9791 00250 0077 +207 +180 157034 035 041 011 00
195200 1716N 08116W 9775 00264 0076 +221 +180 152031 033 038 007 00
195230 1715N 08117W 9784 00256 0075 +230 +180 153029 029 031 001 00
195300 1714N 08119W 9783 00255 0075 +225 +180 155026 028 031 007 03
195330 1713N 08120W 9785 00255 0074 +233 +180 148026 027 029 002 00
195400 1713N 08121W 9778 00260 0073 +245 +180 143022 022 024 000 03
195430 1712N 08123W 9778 00259 0072 +242 +180 135021 022 023 000 03
195500 1711N 08124W 9787 00253 0073 +246 +180 148022 023 019 000 00
$$
;
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting CybrTeddy:

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 19:53Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 11

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Friday, 19:52Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 17.3N 81.3W
Location: 139 miles (223 km) to the S (178°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 150° at 30 knots (From the SSE at ~ 34.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1008 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 160° at 35 knots (From the SSE at ~ 40.2 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 35 knots (~ 40.3mph)




that would make it a TS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
This is where I got it:

http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives/2008/07/live_hurricane_hunter_missions_in_g.html
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1746. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Whats going on with 92L?


It died 2 weeks ago.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting MississippiWx:
Satellite presentation continues to improve and it's starting to throw off some bands on the east side. NW movement pronounced at the present time. 93L really isn't far at all from being not only a TD, but Alex.

Link
Hurricane hunters still investigating... The blog continues to jump to conclusions that it isn't a TD and the HH have yet to finish. Either way, satellite imagery and ASCAT both suggest that there is a closed surface low, let's see if the HH will find this too.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting scott39:
Whats going on with 92L?




92L gone we have 93 and 94L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 19:53Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 11

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Friday, 19:52Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 17.3N 81.3W
Location: 139 miles (223 km) to the S (178°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 150° at 30 knots (From the SSE at ~ 34.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1008 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 160° at 35 knots (From the SSE at ~ 40.2 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 35 knots (~ 40.3mph)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24199
Quoting Patrap:
TCHP



ooooooo you could boil up some big ol prawns in that water lol
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hurricane hunters now going back to the COC.

No they arent...they are still going south. They ahve a specific flight pattern they do. It will be a good 30-45 minutes before it gets anywhere close to the center again.
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i think some one is lost in the fog
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
1739. Patrap
TCHP

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128764
1738. SirCane
Quoting Tazmanian:



HMMMM JFV???


HUH?
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol TEX! PERFECT! It could go anywhere. :)


glad I could make you laugh. :)
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1736. scott39
Whats going on with 92L?
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I concur with that statement.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That belongs to Dolly or Fay actually. Moderate TS force winds, great organization, no LLC, took forever to be named.


Danny was named because it has an LLC and a small pocket of TS winds.
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Quoting Levi32:
Winds at Puerto Lempira, Honduras are still out of the north to northwest during the past couple of hours.



Levi, question. What's up with the ASCAT showing a closed LLC and these ground reports reporting Westward winds.. yet the HH's aren't finding them? Are the West winds that low to the ground?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24199
1732. cg2916
I think they''re headed back in there because they want to take one more look at it. Heck, since they've left it's gotten more oreganized.
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1730. Patrap
Shucks..

I look mo Impressive in the IR than Viz easily.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128764

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.