93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Good Night:



How.. How is that even possible in the atlantic?
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3578. uplater
Quoting weatherman566:
Just curious, but can anyone read anything I have posted? I'm starting to feel as if I am being blocked. ???


You're good for here...
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Quoting weatherman566:
Just curious, but can anyone read anything I have posted? I'm starting to feel as if I am being blocked. ???


you are not blocked
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Just curious, but can anyone read anything I have posted? I'm starting to feel as if I am being blocked. ???
Action: Quote | Ignore User


I think the blog is just moving so fast.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Good Night:



Is that a hot tower?
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SAB gave out a DT of 2.5, so I'd say were definitely dealing with a tropical storm now. Whether it's declared at 11 I don't know.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Just curious, but can anyone read anything I have posted? I'm starting to feel as if I am being blocked. ???
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Wont be long and ol Alex will be dying over the Yucatan and will shut everybody up and then have to start ALL OVER again in the Gulf
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
i wounder if that will give us Alex at 11pm
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3569. txjac
Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.


I am so happy to see you ...was worried as we hadnt seen you, I hope that you are back to 100%.
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3568. uplater
Quoting weatherwart:


Oh yeah! I see it. It wasn't in the image I was looking at earlier. Wow, that's so cool!


Literally, so cool =). you may have been looking at the water vapor images/loops. Different Subject. Colors represent diff. scale.
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3567. xcool



newwwwwwwwwwwwwww




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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB as been very generous with 01L. This should push 01L to TS Alex.


Definitely, its part of the NHC official track that it will be a TS soon anyways, NHC likes being right lol.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
OMG I SEE A EYE



OK - I can't take it anymore, been a long time lurker and you're definitely not the Taz I remember sorry ... poof.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB as been very generous with 01L. This should push 01L to TS Alex.


Maybe its not really generous, but rather the SAB is just a bit lagging. It's gotta catch up, but the constraints prevent it from doing so very quickly.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Goodnight TD1:

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oh by the way BP is now stopping all collections in the Gulf due to the storm....
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Quoting uplater:


Am actually seeing some greying-out ( ~90c ) in this fairly recent image ( 23:45z ):




Oh yeah! I see it. It wasn't in the image I was looking at earlier. Wow, that's so cool!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct, plenty of time to become a 50 mph TS.

OR more
If I was in cozumel/cancun I'd be preparing for a Weak Cat 1 and hoping for no more than 40knots sustained for an hour or two.
TD one still looks ragged to me
But I'm like that.
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Hurricane1956... at this point, we can not rule anything out here in Florida. Right now, it looks ok, but you know how things go (ex. Charley)! At this point looks to increase moisture over the weekend into next week as tropical moisture is drawn north from the Caribbean. But remember to be vigilant, even though we are not "in the cone." There are lots of discrepancies in the models at this time.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Taz may have to spay himself if he doesn't dial it back a little. I'm a Taz fan but things are gonna tighten up a little to the point where we may get pitched off for saying crow and fish much less something too random.


Yeah, I have a feeling that there will be less of us on the blog within the next 48 hours.
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oh no
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Quoting hurrkat05:
taco like i said you have your opinion we are not talking about a rita we are talking minimal tropical storm at best if that when it crosses into boc...big difference you trying to compare fantasy here..

No Fantasy here the water has no where to go but up north.... Its the counter clockwise of the storm that brings in the Oil.... Link
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Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave out a T3.0

AL, 01, 201006252345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 8400W, , 3, 45
TAFB as been very generous with 01L. This should push 01L to TS Alex.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting btwntx08:

still has effects for south tx


Baytown, or Beaufort?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Damn!



You know when a tropical depression's outer bands stretch from Haiti to te BOC, Straits of Florida to Costa Rica...there's something ominous lurking.

Quoting Tazmanian:
where evere the storm makes land fall it will sure take the oil with it


Not if it sticks to a westward track after entering the BOC.

Quoting cg2916:
TD 1 is the size of a hurricane!


No, it's the size of a large West Pacific super typhoon!
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T 2.5 = a TS doesn't it? So a 3.0 has got to be.
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Well I say onec it hits 40 mph TS it will start moving North one 45 mph it will start moving North East and hit W cuba as a 50 or 70 mph TS
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
3548. uplater
Quoting weatherwart:


Okay, I see. I've been looking at some of the GOES images at NOAA's site and I'm seeing a lot of red around where I think the center is of TD-1. No grey, though.

Thank you!


Am actually seeing some greying-out ( ~90c ) in this fairly recent image ( 23:45z ):


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Quoting CaneWarning:


You had better watch out, Taz may spay you.


Taz may have to spay himself if he doesn't dial it back a little. I'm a Taz fan but things are gonna tighten up a little to the point where we may get pitched off for saying crow and fish much less something too random.
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Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave out a T3.0

AL, 01, 201006252345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 8400W, , 3, 45


That makes it a TS.
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cam someone plese post the website I can access the models .
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Does anybody remember TampaMishy? Where has she been? I haven't seen her forever on here. She used to really help us with trolls.
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Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave out a T3.0

AL, 01, 201006252345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 8400W, , 3, 45


Woah. Looks like Alex is almost here.
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Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave out a T3.0

AL, 01, 201006252345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 8400W, , 3, 45



OMG we have a name storm?
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Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave out a T3.0

AL, 01, 201006252345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 8400W, , 3, 45


wow
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3540. xcool
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (AL012010) 20100626 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100626 0000 100626 1200 100627 0000 100627 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 83.9W 17.7N 86.0W 19.0N 87.8W 20.2N 89.6W
BAMD 16.6N 83.9W 17.1N 85.9W 17.9N 87.8W 18.7N 89.4W
BAMM 16.6N 83.9W 17.4N 85.9W 18.2N 87.8W 19.2N 89.6W
LBAR 16.6N 83.9W 17.1N 86.0W 18.1N 88.1W 19.2N 90.1W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100628 0000 100629 0000 100630 0000 100701 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.4N 91.0W 23.3N 93.3W 24.2N 95.1W 24.3N 96.5W
BAMD 19.6N 90.7W 21.1N 92.6W 22.2N 95.0W 23.0N 97.3W
BAMM 20.4N 91.0W 21.8N 93.0W 22.8N 95.1W 23.1N 97.2W
LBAR 20.6N 91.9W 23.9N 94.2W 27.7N 95.9W 31.6N 94.9W
SHIP 64KTS 73KTS 77KTS 75KTS
DSHP 36KTS 45KTS 48KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 83.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 82.5W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 81.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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3539. Grothar
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TAFB gave out a T3.0

AL, 01, 201006252345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 8400W, , 3, 45
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Those cloud tops are unreal. All this thing ever really needed was to get itself stacked, and off it goes.
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That was weird...
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
picking a fight i !!!see



AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHH lol
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Darby weaker

EP, 05, 2010062600, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1019W, 100, 966, HU
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Good to see ya back 456..hope you're feelin better. Tropics didn't bother to hold off w/out you.
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3531. lavinia
456...Happy to see you back! Hope you're feeling better
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Hello everybody! a lot of early action in the Caribbean.Just wondering what if any will be the effect of this system on South Florida?,it have a very large circulation and if this system moves a little bit to the right of the current track we should be getting a lot of rain here in Miami,any comments??,thanks~
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Quoting sailingallover:

It's called wishcasting... there is a lot of that here.. I agree the GOM waters outside the loop current just got hot enough on the surface to support a storm but how deep does it go?


LOL, thanks sailingallover!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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