93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

Share this Blog
8
+

The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1979 - 1929

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

I'm thinking 16.5 N 83.5W according to latest visible imagery.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1978. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:

OMG lol interesting


Looks like you'll get your storm!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Mia337---I hope not toooo....But the question I was asking is "Is there andy model support for 93L tracking to the northern Gulf"? But no answer yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
no need for DMIN and DMAX any more
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1975. leo305
Quoting Levi32:


Winds have not switched yet so this is not the center location but it is where they are measuring lowest pressures so far on this pass.


then the center will move towards that area, since lows tend to be attracted to other lows
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1974. GWTEX
Ive been a watcher on here for a couple of years and have one question. What is wrong with you Florida people? I hope we dont get hit with gulf storms here in Texas and hope the same for others but a majority of yall are wishcasters and pray for storms.The funniest part of the whole thing is when people totally ignore models when they dont push a storm in your direction. Sorry but I had to get that off my chest.Get a life! Now, back to watch and learn mode.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1973. Levi32
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Lots of politics involved. Especially now with the oil spill. No doubt a TD will be declared, but a Tropical Storm will cause major media coverage and could threaten relief well efforts right now in the GOMEX.


It has nothing to do with politics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Winds have not switched yet so this is not the center location but it is where they are measuring lowest pressures so far on this pass.



you this Quote your own name



Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1969. centex
I don't see how it can miss the Yucatan. This is a little interaction with land so it's not going to go too crazy. Yucatan won't kill it but really knock it down. Even if it goes NW from current location, that takes it up by Cozumel. That's not forecasted and since going W of NW currently I don't see it hitting the channel. I've held off on track forecast until I had something to work with. Tomorrow we should be able to have some good track forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1968. 900MB
Quoting StormW:

Well, it will.


I think the real question is- how strong will it be when it hits the Yucatan and where on the Yucatan it hits? What do you think Storm, it is getting organized pretty quickly all of a sudden. Close to Hurricane Strength hitting Yucatan?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:

Well, it will.


Lol. Seems the NHC would agree. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressure also falling.



ups and downs on pressure are DMIN and DMAX??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1965. IKE
Quoting Levi32:
Recon finding a center near 82.7W 16.5N.


16.5N...93L will spend quite a bit of time over the Yucatan.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Grothar:
Very nice.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting scott39:
Levi I dont see why the NHC would not classify this invest with whats developing? Why would they spend more time and resources to go out later and classify 93L?


Lots of politics involved. Especially now with the oil spill. No doubt a TD will be declared, but a Tropical Storm will cause major media coverage and could threaten relief well efforts right now in the GOMEX.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1962. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Levi I dont see why the NHC would not classify this invest with whats developing? Why would they spend more time and resources to go out later and classify 93L?


The recon hasn't confirmed a well-defined, closed circulation yet, so waiting to classify it is a good call at this point. If I were them I would also be waiting for all the plane data after a few passes through the center to make the call. We're not even sure where the real center is yet.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting CaneWarning:
There you go folks, this is a Texas/Mexico storm.




i would not go that way this yet i think mode runs are way off
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Tazmanian:
the stronger the storm the more it gos N and if 93L is now starting at 40mph it has a better ch of going N
You're right about the stronger storm going NORTH....but you're wrong about what it is right now. It's still not a TD. At best, we'll get a small TS soon. That would tend to mean more of a WEST move, and it could very well hit the Yucatan BEFORE it gets beyond a moderate TS. But, we'll see. FIRST, let's have a TD. If we don't have that full swing, we ain't got a thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1959. Grothar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1955. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:

Recon finding a center near 82.7W 16.5N.



Winds have not switched yet so this is not the center location but it is where they are measuring lowest pressures so far on this pass.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
There you go folks, this is a Texas/Mexico storm.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting StormW:


Negative.
Lol, negative? Just what I'm thinking.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting StormW:

Well, it will.


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Recon finding a center near 82.6W 16.5N.


No west winds, however.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
i dont see this going too MX
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1948. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts














Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues

Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit


NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
1947. unf97
It is a pretty good probability that Cozumel and Cancun is going to get impacted heavily by this system.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting IKE:
Buoy 42057 at 16.8N and 81.5W.....

Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 180 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts

5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.75 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.2 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Pressure also falling.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1945. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


I'm simply updating the recon data as it comes in. Max winds are near tropical storm force but they are rather far from the center so if it gets classified it will likely be a borderline call by the NHC one way or the other. The recon still has more areas of the storm to explore though so we don't have a complete picture yet.
Levi I dont see why the NHC would not classify this invest with whats developing? Why would they spend more time and resources to go out later and classify 93L?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
To reach the n gom , it has about 100-120 hours. Then it runs into the front/trof and gets shunted to ne or back. I would imagine the euro will come back on board with the 00z around 2a.m.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1943. Levi32
Recon finding a center near 82.7W 16.5N.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1942. Mia337
Quoting txsweetpea:
fmbill...
Sorry I meant northern Gulf. Tx/La/Ms/Al....


I sure hope not, I am in SWLA and just open'd a new studio. Watching closely over here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1941. Max1023
The less organized the system is the less it will weaken over the Yucatan. A system with a large number of outlying convective bands and a large circulation will be able to keep at least some of its circulation over water during the crossing. Right now 93L almost has convection in the GoM, even though that is probably caused by the synoptic environment as much as from the system itself. If this system develops enough of a circulation in the mid levels to form convective bands in both the eastern and western semicircles extending 200nm+ from the center then in my opinion it is likely to survive the crossing and then re-form in the GoM. If the conditions are favorable there we could see a minimal hurricane before landfall. Where that would occur is up in the air.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1940. fmbill
Quoting txsweetpea:
fmbill...
Sorry I meant northern Gulf. Tx/La/Ms/Al....


At this point, everyone gets to play "forecaster". The models are all over the place, so any place you think it could go, there's a model that will likely agree with you. :-)

Models
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressure now down to 1005.1 mb. Wouldn't be surprised to see sub-1004 mb pressures as they continue to near the COC.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1937. 900MB
Quoting washingaway:
I have an idea; If a hurricane is going to cross the oil spill, we take a 100,000 barrells of Dawn liquid detergent and put it into the spill. The hurricane will stir the gulf like a washing machine. The sudzy storm surge will also clean the city. :)


Not until we have a Tropic-oil Storm Warning. Ah, couldn't resist. What a flippin mess!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Our first warning!


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC W INTO FAR NRN GULF AND
DRAPES OVER DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER W CARIBBEAN....ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL WAVE. SECOND LLVL WIND SURGE IN PAST FEW DAYS HAS
MOVED THROUGH THE STRAITS AND INTO S CENTRAL CARIB RAISING SEAS
IN THE STRAITS TO AROUND 8 FT...ESPECIALLY WHERE FLOW IS AGAINST
FLORIDA CURRENT. RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED E-NE WINDS NEAR 20 KT
WITH SOME 20-25 KT VECTORS BETWEEN 80W AND 86W S OF 24N.
OTHERWISE...MILD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. TROPICAL WAVE AND
DEVELOPING LOW FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW AND INTO THE YUCATAN SAT
EVENING...MAINTAINING TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE N AND NE OF WAVE AND
ACROSS THE SE GULF TO THE YUCATAN. THIS W CARIB LOW CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT BETTER REPRESENTATION IN STLT IMAGERY AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NEXT 24 HOURS...OR LESS. THIS COULD FURTHER
INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS TO MOVE W-NW TO NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND EMERGE OVER SW GULF
BY 72 HOURS AND CONTINUE A NW MOTION...TOWARD THE UPPER MEXICO/S
TEXAS COASTAL ZONES. ALL INTERESTS IN THIS AREA ARE URGED TO
MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting saintsfan06:
Does the classification make a difference with what BP does at this point?? Will a depression keep them working???


I bet they pull out as soon as its classified a Depression.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1933. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
93L/XX/XX
MARK
16.1N/84.6W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


Basically it just comes down to what the NHC wants to do Miami.
they could upgrade right now if they wished but something tells
me they proably wont.

mostly politics.


I do not think it's politics...It has to meet the criteria for a td or ts. The criteria is pretty specific!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1931. IKE
Buoy 42057 at 16.8N and 81.5W.....

Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 180 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts

5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.75 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.2 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1930. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


Agree... (for once..LOL)


LOL
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1929. OneDay
Don't say that, Taz. :-)
Member Since: July 13, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 931

Viewing: 1979 - 1929

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
27 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron