93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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2079. ATL


Since the rebuilding of Katrina, New Orleans happens to be one of the cleanest metro. cities in the country

I'm talking more about the characters in some parts of the city. Bourbon Street late on a weekend night is quite the...experience. Still love the city though!
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2077. Levi32
20:45z

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2076. IKE
Looks headed to Belize...northern portion to me. If so, it's got a little over 300 miles to get there.
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Quoting tennisgirl08:


I can't back up with any evidence because the season has yet to even begin. Get back with me after the season is over!

Just think of it this way. For every day BP can't work on plugging the leak, thousands of oil spews into the gulf. Tropical cyclones cause shut downs on wells in the GOMEX. The NHC will want to delay that for as long as they possibly can, without putting any residents along the coast in harms way - as they should. Politics - plain and simple!


How about you tell me this when the season is over instead of spewing assumptions that you don't know are true or not.
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Darby up to 120 mph.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2073. Levi32
Pressure down to 1004.3mb. They found a center of some kind with weak westerly winds again.

000
URNT15 KNHC 252045
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 37 20100625
203530 1633N 08257W 9781 00237 0050 +240 +180 181020 021 020 000 00
203600 1633N 08259W 9781 00237 0050 +236 +180 182020 021 021 000 00
203630 1633N 08301W 9780 00238 0049 +239 +180 182020 020 019 000 00
203700 1633N 08302W 9781 00235 0048 +241 +180 178020 021 019 000 00
203730 1633N 08304W 9780 00236 0047 +242 +180 178019 021 017 000 00
203800 1633N 08305W 9780 00236 0047 +237 +180 180017 018 018 000 00
203830 1633N 08307W 9780 00235 0046 +235 +180 176017 018 020 000 00
203900 1633N 08309W 9782 00232 0046 +237 +180 172018 019 019 000 00
203930 1633N 08310W 9782 00232 0046 +238 +180 167018 019 014 000 00
204000 1633N 08312W 9781 00235 0046 +242 +180 158019 019 012 000 00
204030 1633N 08314W 9782 00234 0046 +241 +180 162017 018 015 000 00
204100 1633N 08315W 9781 00232 0048 +218 +180 163016 017 040 011 03
204130 1633N 08317W 9786 00227 0047 +208 +180 182014 015 043 015 03
204200 1633N 08318W 9779 00234 0046 +225 +180 173011 014 031 007 00
204230 1633N 08320W 9786 00228 0045 +241 +180 231004 005 022 004 00
204300 1633N 08322W 9778 00235 0044 +239 +180 221004 005 016 003 03
204330 1633N 08323W 9786 00226 0045 +216 +180 200003 005 043 015 03
204400 1632N 08325W 9789 00225 0045 +229 +180 262005 006 023 008 03
204430 1632N 08326W 9774 00237 0043 +243 +180 289004 005 007 000 00
204500 1632N 08328W 9781 00232 0043 +244 +180 294005 006 009 003 00
$$
;
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2072. cg2916
Time: 20:45:00Z
Coordinates: 16.5333N 83.4667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 978.1 mb (~ 28.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 232 meters (~ 761 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.3 mb (~ 29.66 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 294° at 5 knots (From the WNW at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: 24.4°C (~ 75.9°F)
Dew Pt: 18.0°C (~ 64.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

West winds! Finally!
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93L may this go right too a TS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Celia now down to 135 mph.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2068. xcool
noone know where go at
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2067. tkeith
Quoting putintang3:
1914. ATL 8:27 PM GMT on June 25, 2010
Quoting washingaway:
I have an idea; If a hurricane is going to cross the oil spill, we take a 100,000 barrells of Dawn liquid detergent and put it into the spill. The hurricane will stir the gulf like a washing machine. The sudzy storm surge will also clean the city. :)

New Orleans could certainly use some cleaning, LOL.


Since the rebuilding of Katrina, New Orleans happens to be one of the cleanest metro. cities in the country
THANK YOU! Come down and see for yourselves.
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Quoting extreme236:


Most likely no it will not. Do you have any evidence to back up this claim? Why would they be more conservative only to make themselves possibly more wrong?


History repeats itself!
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2065. tillou
Looks like we might have two TD by the end of the day.

Dr. Masters, heard you on WWL-Radio this afternoon. Thanks for you thoughts and insights with the New Orleans and Gulf Coast areas for this unique hurricane season.
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2052. FloridaTigers 1:45 PM PDT on June 25, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:
this will not be a MX storm by any means it will be a fish storm



Why do people even listen to you? You're obviously trollin' mang




you been bug spayed poof you go
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
2063. Levi32
Quoting cg2916:


Figured it out. Guys, right click the Mission 01 thing in Google Earth, click Properties, then go to the Refresh tab and adjust how often it refreshes.


Yeah...I just manually refresh.
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2062. xcool
do i see eye ??????? or i need glass
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting extreme236:


Most likely no it will not. Do you have any evidence to back up this claim? Why would they be more conservative only to make themselves possibly more wrong?


I can't back up with any evidence because the season has yet to even begin. Get back with me after the season is over!

Just think of it this way. For every day BP can't work on plugging the leak, thousands of oil spews into the gulf. Tropical cyclones cause shut downs on wells in the GOMEX. The NHC will want to delay that for as long as they possibly can, without putting any residents along the coast in harms way - as they should. Politics - plain and simple!
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Quoting gbreezegirl:
Now that right there IS funny!!!!! and true!


All the funniest stuff is...generally speaking
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Quoting Patrap:

Were gonna try and Birdie the Next TWO.

He's going with the GFDL seems,..wait ,no a last minute switch to da GFS !

Hmmmm...its a gamble.

Lets see how it plays.
I hope the golfer is taking account of the wind.
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Quoting iluvjess:



Evidence? Turn on your TV. Read a Newspaper. Talk you your local and State Reps. Evidence of Political influence is all around you.


So what? There isn't any evidence that the NHC has done that before or will now. They always provide evidence for their reasoning that can be fact-checked.
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1914. ATL 8:27 PM GMT on June 25, 2010
Quoting washingaway:
I have an idea; If a hurricane is going to cross the oil spill, we take a 100,000 barrells of Dawn liquid detergent and put it into the spill. The hurricane will stir the gulf like a washing machine. The sudzy storm surge will also clean the city. :)

New Orleans could certainly use some cleaning, LOL.


Since the rebuilding of Katrina, New Orleans happens to be one of the cleanest metro. cities in the country
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2055. cg2916
Quoting Levi32:


The same as everyone else. I'm not sure why some aren't updating.


Figured it out. Guys, right click the Mission 01 thing in Google Earth, click Properties, then go to the Refresh tab and adjust how often it refreshes.
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Quoting GWTEX:
Ive been a watcher on here for a couple of years and have one question. What is wrong with you Florida people? I hope we dont get hit with gulf storms here in Texas and hope the same for others but a majority of yall are wishcasters and pray for storms.The funniest part of the whole thing is when people totally ignore models when they dont push a storm in your direction. Sorry but I had to get that off my chest.Get a life! Now, back to watch and learn mode.
LOL! I think it's an excitement thing. People get excited about tracking storms, and following how they develop. Then when the warnings start, it adds more excitement....that is, until a major hurricane pays you a visit and then you realize that excitement is best tempered with a bit of respect and fear. I've always been fascinated by hurricanes, and living in the Cayman Isl. we get brushed almost every year by a TS or hurricane. But I hadn't experienced a direct hit from a strong system and was "curious" to see what it would be like. Well...after Ivan, can say that I'm no longer curious. Now I'm a wish caster…..wishing that it goes elsewhere!
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2053. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
this will not be a MX storm by any means it will be a fish storm


Why do people even listen to you? You're obviously trollin' mang
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Latest model runs on 93L and thanks for telling me what the second recon plane was for :)

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Quoting extreme236:


Most likely no it will not. Do you have any evidence to back up this claim? Why would they be more conservative only to make themselves possibly more wrong?



Evidence? Turn on your TV. Read a Newspaper. Talk you your local and State Reps. Evidence of Political influence is all around you.
2048. 900MB
Quoting StormW:


Maybe T.S. strength.


Hmmmm...seems like you have gone somewhat negative on intensification. From 82.7, due Northwest movement would be a small clip of Yucatan.
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Quoting smmcdavid:
Flood... I'm not scared. :p


That's the spirit...
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2046. Levi32
Quoting cg2916:


How did you get your's to update but not mine? Which one are you using?


The same as everyone else. I'm not sure why some aren't updating.
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2045. hydrus
Quoting GWTEX:
Ive been a watcher on here for a couple of years and have one question. What is wrong with you Florida people? I hope we dont get hit with gulf storms here in Texas and hope the same for others but a majority of yall are wishcasters and pray for storms.The funniest part of the whole thing is when people totally ignore models when they dont push a storm in your direction. Sorry but I had to get that off my chest.Get a life! Now, back to watch and learn mode.
What is wrong with Florida people is when a few Floridians post something absurd, you Texans lump in the other 18,000,000 of us right in with them. Try to understand that there are people from Florida on this blog who do not want storms.
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20:28:30Z
16.517N 82.667W
1005.0 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting StormW:
It will cross the Yucatan Peninsula


hey read my blog i posted and see if you agree...
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poor 94L not geting any love
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
2041. GWTEX
1992.The bad part is your are probably serious.
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2040. tkeith
Quoting smmcdavid:
Flood... I'm not scared. :p
but you're still awesome :)

good to see you back on here
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2039. gator23
Quoting Tazmanian:
this will not be a MX storm by any means it will be a fish storm

hey unless it goes due WEST it is an impossibility for this to NOT hit land.
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Quoting Levi32:
Searching for the center.




So far so south.
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From 191° at 21 knots
(From between the S and SSW at ~ 24.1 mph)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
2035. cg2916
Quoting Levi32:
Searching for the center.



How did you get your's to update but not mine? Which one are you using?
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2034. CCkid00
i've been watching in here for 6 years now. it's very addictive. and no, i'm NOT a kid.....i'm a lady and i'm 42. i'm just outside of Baton Rouge, La. gotta question....way out in left field, i know....but, could this thing (93L) wrap ALL of the covection around it......the convection that is spread out all around it, and form like a huge hurricane? is that possible?
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this will not be a MX storm by any means it will be a fish storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Flood... I'm not scared. :p
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2031. cg2916
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm not


It updates at :05 past, :15 past, :25 past, so on.
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Quoting Floodman:
Nearly 2000 comments since 9AM, pretty much all saying variations of the same 6 things (with some notable exceptions):

It's a TD/TS/CAT1
It's NOT a TD/TSCAT1
It's going (pick a compass point)
It's going to hit (pick a city/state)
I'm the blog police and you're busted
No, I'm crazy, so I can't be busted
Now that right there IS funny!!!!! and true!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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