93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Any evidence of a closed curculation,is there anyone expecting them to find one today-any awnser is appreciated-Thanks.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I said WEST winds, meaning they may not be convinced enough the low is closed

you could have 65mph winds, but if that low isnt closed, no classification
Oh, well I missed the west part, lol. I believe that anything stronger than 5mph could allow for it to be classified as a TD or TS.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:


They still haven't necessarily really found the center....the previous pass was farther north where they found the westerlies. Rather confusing stuff going on under that convection.


Seems like everything single storm since 2009 has been confusing.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
There it is

From 262° at 5 knots
(From the W at ~ 5.8 mph)


We have our west winds.
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Quoting StormW:


Co-ordinates please.


Point Caracol is just a little west of Cancun, about 86.9 West and 20.9 N. Even if storm only went this far inland it technically would have crossed the Yucatan peninsula, right? :)
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2124. centex
I think they will say TD has formed. Special statement coming soon IMO.
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Miami those winds were far from center...they might not use those to classify this system. They could have been from a thunderstorms.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
Quoting Levi32:


They still haven't necessarily really found the center....the previous pass was farther north where they found the westerlies. Rather confusing stuff going on under that convection.


So, how's that Invest doing? Looks better organized to me on satellite imagery.

-Snowlover123
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http://www.compasscayman.com/caycompass/portal/George-Town-Webcam/
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Quoting iluvjess:


It's called an opinion. She is entitled to hers as you are yours. This blog is full of just that, opinions.


I'm sorry, but her statement wasn't an opinion.
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2119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2118. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
VERY SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DARBY (EP052010)
21:00 PM UTC June 25 2010
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Darby (960 hPa) located at 13.6N 101.5W or 220 NM south southwest of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 5 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.5N 103.3W - 100 knts (SVR Cyclone SSHS-3)
48 HRS: 13.5N 104.2W - 80 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-1)
72 HRS: 14.0N 103.5W - 65 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-1)
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There it is

From 262° at 5 knots
(From the W at ~ 5.8 mph)
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2115. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
VERY SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010)
21:00 PM UTC June 25 2010
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Celia (948 hPa) located at 14.2N 119.0W or 735 NM southwest of the Southern tip of Baja California, Mexico has sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 15.6N 122.0W - 70 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-1)
48 HRS: 16.2N 124.3W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 16.4N 125.3W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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2114. leo305
Quoting Levi32:


They still haven't necessarily really found the center....the previous pass was farther north where they found the westerlies. Rather confusing stuff going on under that convection.


I say its further north of that location..
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Well we gotz pure west winds, pressure of 1004 mb, winds of 30 to 35 knots.. I guess they want a west wind as strong as the other winds.
We could see some 1003mb pressure if they keep decreasing so rapidly.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting StormW:


Pretty good! Except 94L isn't vertically stacked.


Thanks....I was speaking more on the lines of my track forecast for 93L
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I am actually quite a bit surprised by the fact that we have two storms in the e-pac and this imminent one on the Atlantic side at the same time.......Tells you how much fuel and energy has accumilated down there near Central America over the past month and my theory on the "inverse" relationship between the two basins is about to go out the window (this year anyway)..........LOL.
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Quoting extreme236:


How about you tell me this when the season is over instead of spewing assumptions that you don't know are true or not.


Ok - my last point. You don't think that NHC forecasting (with storms in the gulf) are driven at all influenced by oil drilling? Just sayin..
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Quoting extreme236:


How about you tell me this when the season is over instead of spewing assumptions that you don't know are true or not.


It's called an opinion. She is entitled to hers as you are yours. This blog is full of just that, opinions.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We have already found tropical storm strength winds inside the system.


I said WEST winds, meaning they may not be convinced enough the low is closed

you could have 65mph winds, but if that low isnt closed, no classification
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
This blog is moving so fast.....


More coffee, you fool! You're falling behind!
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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2105. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I am still not sure those west winds are strong enough for classification


They still haven't necessarily really found the center....the previous pass was farther north where they found the westerlies. Rather confusing stuff going on under that convection.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
stormw, what was that link you gave yesterday that had the global sat loops, you said choose the 8 frame option, i tried to put it in my favs and it went poof. could you please post that link again? and as always i enjoy your expertise.
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Quoting scott39:
If 93L becomes a strong tropical or hurricane when it gets its act together in the NWCarribean, wont it go more N?



yes
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Well we gotz pure west winds, pressure of 1004 mb, winds of 30 to 35 knots.. I guess they want a west wind as strong as the other winds.
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I see 93L wasnt classified.

Interesting.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
2052. FloridaTigers 1:45 PM PDT on June 25, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:
this will not be a MX storm by any means it will be a fish storm



Why do people even listen to you? You're obviously trollin' mang




you been bug spayed poof you go


Spayed? No thanks.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I am still not sure those west winds are strong enough for classification
We have already found tropical storm strength winds inside the system.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2096. scott39
If 93L becomes a strong tropical or hurricane when it gets its act together in the NWCarribean, wont it go more N?
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mode runs are u less
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Quoting iluvjess:


Say what you want. But you have no evidence. I'm only talking about the NHC, not other organizations.
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I wonder if the NHC is dreading having to produce a forcast track for this one at this time. Large cone of error 5 days out? The models are all over the place.
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2092. gator23
Quoting hydrus:
What is wrong with Florida people is when a few Floridians post something absurd, you Texans lump in the other 18,000,000 of us right in with them. Try to understand that there are people from Florida on this blog who do not want storms.

Not to mention that the Miami area which is one of the most likely places to be effected by a tropical cyclone does not sit on the GOM and is often ignored even though it is one of the more populated places prone to direct cyclone activity.
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Quoting extreme236:


So what? There isn't any evidence that the NHC has done that before or will now. They always provide evidence for their reasoning that can be fact-checked.
Quoting extreme236:


So what? There isn't any evidence that the NHC has done that before or will now. They always provide evidence for their reasoning that can be fact-checked.


Ok. Good luck with that school of thought. lol
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Time: 20:44:00Z
Coordinates: 16.5333N 83.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 978.9 mb (~ 28.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 225 meters (~ 738 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.5 mb (~ 29.66 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 262° at 5 knots (From the W at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: 22.9°C (~ 73.2°F)
Dew Pt: 18.0°C (~ 64.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 23 knots* (~ 26.4 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr* (~ 0.31 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Here we go...they are on the side that will define this system...is it a depression/storm or just a wave.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
2088. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
poor 94L not geting any love


haha! yeah
that what happens to invest that form so far away from the US while there is another invest that could affect the US
XD
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It is amazing the convection is circling around 93 all the way to Cuba and Southern Florida... I know it may not be a storm yet but it sure is looking like it is trying to pop itself together any second.
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...CELIA WEAKENS FURTHER...BUT STILL A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
2:00 PM PDT Fri Jun 25
Location: 14.2°N 119.0°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 948 mb

...DARBY INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE...
2:00 PM PDT Fri Jun 25
Location: 13.6°N 101.5°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb
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Quoting Tazmanian:
2052. FloridaTigers 1:45 PM PDT on June 25, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:
this will not be a MX storm by any means it will be a fish storm



Why do people even listen to you? You're obviously trollin' mang




you been bug spayed poof you go
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Quoting Levi32:
Pressure down to 1004.3mb. They found a center of some kind with weak westerly winds again.

000
URNT15 KNHC 252045
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 37 20100625
203530 1633N 08257W 9781 00237 0050 +240 +180 181020 021 020 000 00
203600 1633N 08259W 9781 00237 0050 +236 +180 182020 021 021 000 00
203630 1633N 08301W 9780 00238 0049 +239 +180 182020 020 019 000 00
203700 1633N 08302W 9781 00235 0048 +241 +180 178020 021 019 000 00
203730 1633N 08304W 9780 00236 0047 +242 +180 178019 021 017 000 00
203800 1633N 08305W 9780 00236 0047 +237 +180 180017 018 018 000 00
203830 1633N 08307W 9780 00235 0046 +235 +180 176017 018 020 000 00
203900 1633N 08309W 9782 00232 0046 +237 +180 172018 019 019 000 00
203930 1633N 08310W 9782 00232 0046 +238 +180 167018 019 014 000 00
204000 1633N 08312W 9781 00235 0046 +242 +180 158019 019 012 000 00
204030 1633N 08314W 9782 00234 0046 +241 +180 162017 018 015 000 00
204100 1633N 08315W 9781 00232 0048 +218 +180 163016 017 040 011 03
204130 1633N 08317W 9786 00227 0047 +208 +180 182014 015 043 015 03
204200 1633N 08318W 9779 00234 0046 +225 +180 173011 014 031 007 00
204230 1633N 08320W 9786 00228 0045 +241 +180 231004 005 022 004 00
204300 1633N 08322W 9778 00235 0044 +239 +180 221004 005 016 003 03
204330 1633N 08323W 9786 00226 0045 +216 +180 200003 005 043 015 03
204400 1632N 08325W 9789 00225 0045 +229 +180 262005 006 023 008 03
204430 1632N 08326W 9774 00237 0043 +243 +180 289004 005 007 000 00
204500 1632N 08328W 9781 00232 0043 +244 +180 294005 006 009 003 00
$$
;


I am still not sure those west winds are strong enough for classification
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting hydrus:
What is wrong with Florida people is when a few Floridians post something absurd, you Texans lump in the other 18,000,000 of us right in with them. Try to understand that there are people from Florida on this blog who do not want storms.


Dude, I have to say that I know you're right, but do the other 18,000,000 or so of you (wow, is that he latest census data...whew! You guys have been busy) have to be so quiet about it?
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2073. Weak westerly winds are better than none at all?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting centex:
NHC may jump early because of the oil fiasco.
imo...that's the most insightful opinion of the whole day.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5689
Quoting hurrkat05:
cckid its very possible if it misses the yucatan we coulb be dealing with a potent hurricane but if it hits the yucatan it will be a rainmaker for texas...it wint affect the oil at all in la



Where do you get hurricane, its not even a TD yet and has a low chance of becoming a TS. It's not August or September.

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2079. ATL


Since the rebuilding of Katrina, New Orleans happens to be one of the cleanest metro. cities in the country

I'm talking more about the characters in some parts of the city. Bourbon Street late on a weekend night is quite the...experience. Still love the city though!

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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