93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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2178. Levi32
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


right now looking at this SAT IMAGE reguardless, it is hard to believe this system doesnt
have a name and almost near impossible to believe not atleast a TD Designation.

wow ... i mean really look for yourself. talk about being subjective.


Recon, unlike some other data sources, doesn't lie. I trust the readings coming out of that plane. They are still figuring out what the core of this system looks like.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
2177. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting helove2trac:
lets vote at 8pm
a.yellow
b.orange
c.red


If this is for 93L, then neither, I think we will have a special advisory by 8 PM. Even if we don't, it's pretty much guaranteed to be red.

If this is for 94L, then I'm sorta at a toss up between a and b. I'm leaning towards a with the probability kept at 20% though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We have already found tropical storm strength winds inside the system.


Closed circulation, a verified closed circulation...the wind can be 100kts in a thunderstorm
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Quoting extreme236:


The west winds are very weak. Not a very well-defined circulation.
How strong do the west winds need to be to classify 93L as a TD?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Levi32:
Encountering solid NW winds as they continue westward at 20:55z.

000
URNT15 KNHC 252055
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 38 20100625
204530 1632N 08330W 9781 00232 0043 +243 +180 315008 009 008 000 00
204600 1632N 08331W 9778 00234 0044 +242 +180 317008 008 009 001 00
204630 1632N 08333W 9784 00230 0044 +245 +180 313009 010 009 000 00
204700 1632N 08334W 9780 00234 0044 +245 +180 322009 010 010 000 00
204730 1632N 08336W 9778 00235 0044 +241 +180 328008 008 017 000 00
204800 1632N 08338W 9786 00229 0045 +238 +180 324010 011 025 003 00
204830 1632N 08339W 9780 00235 0045 +241 +180 329011 011 018 000 00
204900 1632N 08341W 9777 00237 0046 +240 +180 334012 013 020 002 00
204930 1632N 08342W 9776 00238 0045 +240 +180 332012 013 021 003 00
205000 1632N 08344W 9784 00230 0045 +240 +180 340012 013 022 002 00
205030 1632N 08345W 9781 00235 0046 +244 +180 344013 014 011 000 00
205100 1632N 08347W 9781 00234 0046 +243 +180 343014 015 008 000 00
205130 1632N 08349W 9785 00231 0047 +239 +180 332016 018 020 000 00
205200 1632N 08349W 9785 00231 0048 +238 +180 327015 016 023 003 00
205230 1632N 08352W 9786 00231 0048 +242 +180 329015 015 018 000 00
205300 1631N 08353W 9778 00239 0049 +240 +180 336016 016 019 003 00
205330 1631N 08355W 9781 00238 0050 +240 +180 329016 017 020 003 00
205400 1631N 08356W 9781 00238 0050 +241 +180 332016 017 018 001 00
205430 1631N 08358W 9781 00239 0051 +242 +180 335017 017 015 002 03
205500 1630N 08359W 9780 00240 0051 +245 +180 330017 018 019 001 03
$$


Levi, considering the information from the Hurricane Hunters, is this a TD or not, In your opinion?

-Snowlover123
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Be patient people. The NHC continues to digest the data as it gets transmitted to them and needs more data in order to make a call. Give them time to do their due diligence in analyzing the data.
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thanks stormw, i got it locked in now. very nice. just cant have too many weather gadgets to play with LOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok we got the 1004 mb pressure.
West winds.
30-40 knot winds.
Good satellite presentation.

Why no TD?


West winds are too weak. Plus they haven't investigated the center closely enough yet.
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2168. fmbill
Quoting btwntx08:
nam is out look at it now


Looks like it stalls over the oil mess. Yuck!
Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 426
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
D. Tropical Depression.


Yup. Same here. ;)

-Snowlover123
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2166. gator23
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2165. Levi32
Encountering solid NW winds as they continue westward at 20:55z.

000
URNT15 KNHC 252055
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 38 20100625
204530 1632N 08330W 9781 00232 0043 +243 +180 315008 009 008 000 00
204600 1632N 08331W 9778 00234 0044 +242 +180 317008 008 009 001 00
204630 1632N 08333W 9784 00230 0044 +245 +180 313009 010 009 000 00
204700 1632N 08334W 9780 00234 0044 +245 +180 322009 010 010 000 00
204730 1632N 08336W 9778 00235 0044 +241 +180 328008 008 017 000 00
204800 1632N 08338W 9786 00229 0045 +238 +180 324010 011 025 003 00
204830 1632N 08339W 9780 00235 0045 +241 +180 329011 011 018 000 00
204900 1632N 08341W 9777 00237 0046 +240 +180 334012 013 020 002 00
204930 1632N 08342W 9776 00238 0045 +240 +180 332012 013 021 003 00
205000 1632N 08344W 9784 00230 0045 +240 +180 340012 013 022 002 00
205030 1632N 08345W 9781 00235 0046 +244 +180 344013 014 011 000 00
205100 1632N 08347W 9781 00234 0046 +243 +180 343014 015 008 000 00
205130 1632N 08349W 9785 00231 0047 +239 +180 332016 018 020 000 00
205200 1632N 08349W 9785 00231 0048 +238 +180 327015 016 023 003 00
205230 1632N 08352W 9786 00231 0048 +242 +180 329015 015 018 000 00
205300 1631N 08353W 9778 00239 0049 +240 +180 336016 016 019 003 00
205330 1631N 08355W 9781 00238 0050 +240 +180 329016 017 020 003 00
205400 1631N 08356W 9781 00238 0050 +241 +180 332016 017 018 001 00
205430 1631N 08358W 9781 00239 0051 +242 +180 335017 017 015 002 03
205500 1630N 08359W 9780 00240 0051 +245 +180 330017 018 019 001 03
$$
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok we got the 1004 mb pressure.
West winds.
30-40 knot winds.
Good satellite presentation.

Why no TD?


The west winds are very weak. Not a very well-defined circulation.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok we got the 1004 mb pressure.
West winds.
30-40 knot winds.
Good satellite presentation.

Why no TD?



give them time
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Quoting Tazmanian:
if this dos not come a TS at 5pm crow me


It's not, they did the 5 PM advisories for Celia and Darby a while back, it wouldn't take this long for them to switch to the Atlantic. Maybe in a special advisory a little later, though.

For anyone that is interested here are the EPAC 5PM EDT (2PDT) advisories:

...CELIA WEAKENS FURTHER...BUT STILL A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
2:00 PM PDT Fri Jun 25
Location: 14.2°N 119.0°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 948 mb

...DARBY INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE...
2:00 PM PDT Fri Jun 25
Location: 13.6°N 101.5°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting helove2trac:
lets vote at 8pm
a.yellow
b.orange
c.red
D. Tropical Depression.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting homelesswanderer:


The NHC Marine discussion said it looked to be headed to TX/MX and everyone there needed to keep track of whats going on with this storm.


oh, ok.
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Quoting helove2trac:
lets vote at 8pm
a.yellow
b.orange
c.red


Could we vote now?
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Quoting Levi32:


They still haven't necessarily really found the center....the previous pass was farther north where they found the westerlies. Rather confusing stuff going on under that convection.


right now looking at this SAT IMAGE reguardless, it is hard to believe this system doesnt
have a name and almost near impossible to believe not atleast a TD Designation.

wow ... i mean really look for yourself. talk about being subjective it looks almost like
a cat1 hurricane making landfall.



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2154. Drakoen
Nice satellite view
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29928
Ok we got the 1004 mb pressure.
West winds.
30-40 knot winds.
Good satellite presentation.

Why no TD?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting extreme236:
From Hurricane Claudette (2003) discussion #1:

ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH MADE SEVERAL PASSES THROUGH THE
APPARENT CENTER AND FOUND NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. JUST AS THE PLANE
WAS LEAVING THE AREA AT 18Z IT FOUND 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
INDICATING A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND PRESSURES OF
1006-1007 MB.


Lol, When I first saw that I thought it was from today's Invest, but when I saw the 2003, I breathed a sigh of relief.
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Quoting iluvjess:
Currently there are 2137 opinions on here. Hers is one of them.


Lol you must have a very broad definition of opinion. I wouldn't really call HH data an opinion...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
lets vote at 8pm
a.yellow
b.orange
c.red
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2149. xcool
homelesswanderer .no clue rigth now.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting iluvjess:


It's called an opinion. She is entitled to hers as you are yours. This blog is full of just that, opinions.


Aha! I knew it... opinions ARE everywhere. :0
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Quoting btwntx08:
nam is out look at it now


So, the model consensus is obviously poor. We have some ensembles that bring it into the GOM oil spill, and we have some that bring it into Texas. Really confusing stuff going on here...

-Snowlover123
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From Hurricane Claudette (2003) discussion #1:

ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH MADE SEVERAL PASSES THROUGH THE
APPARENT CENTER AND FOUND NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. JUST AS THE PLANE
WAS LEAVING THE AREA AT 18Z IT FOUND 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
INDICATING A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND PRESSURES OF
1006-1007 MB.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting btwntx08:
nam is out look at it now


link please..
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Miami those winds were far from center...they might not use those to classify this system. They could have been from a thunderstorms.
Let's see...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Currently there are 2137 opinions on here. Hers is one of them.
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Thanks iluvjess. My opinion is my opinion, and my opinion is that everything is driven by money and politics.
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if this dos not come a TS at 5pm crow me
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93L looks like it wants to be something big

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Quoting TexasHurricane:


what? Did I miss something?


The NHC Marine discussion said it looked to be headed to TX/MX and everyone there needed to keep track of whats going on with this storm.
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2137. scott39
I think it will go over the tip of the Yucatan! From what Levi is posting, they may have found the COC farther N! IMO
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2136. Drakoen
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Well we gotz pure west winds, pressure of 1004 mb, winds of 30 to 35 knots.. I guess they want a west wind as strong as the other winds.


lol...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29928
This is crazy trying to read and keep up with this...
we thought it was fast back in summer of 2005 when we did not have half of the bloggers on here we do today..
but this is crazy.

this blog is 5 years old (April 2005) but actually it is our 6th storm season together!!!

happy 6th season of storm watching together!

now will 93L become a TD or TS??????? hummmm or remain a wave?????

see ya!

Gamma
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We could see some 1003mb pressure if they keep decreasing so rapidly.


Right before levi posted the 1004, I was about to post that I would be really impressed if we started seeing 1004 mbs with this lol. So before it's too late, I'm gonna post a new version: I'll really be impressed if we start to see some 1003 mbs associated with this system.
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Quoting StadiumEffect:
LOL! I think it's an excitement thing. People get excited about tracking storms, and following how they develop. Then when the warnings start, it adds more excitement....that is, until a major hurricane pays you a visit and then you realize that excitement is best tempered with a bit of respect and fear. I've always been fascinated by hurricanes, and living in the Cayman Isl. we get brushed almost every year by a TS or hurricane. But I hadn't experienced a direct hit from a strong system and was "curious" to see what it would be like. Well...after Ivan, can say that I'm no longer curious. Now I'm a wish caster…..wishing that it goes elsewhere!


I am with ya there as well. While I enjoy the excitement of the formation and tracking of major storms, I certainly don't actually wish they hit any one.

Especially this year, and especially my area :)

I live just west of Fort Lauderdale, but I am currently at Tsinghua University in Beijing until August and am helpless in protecting my house back at home for the first time. So I am wishing all storms away, from afar :)

Interestingly, one of the research topic areas in our program this year is Hurricane Mitigation ( pire.fiu.edu ), and there are some over here working in those areas.

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2107. floodman
ROFLMAO
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Is that a West flag I see?
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Any evidence of a closed curculation,is there anyone expecting them to find one today-any awnser is appreciated-Thanks.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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