93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
pssst...

93L
Pull my finger...C,mon


You're a very funny, yet somehow disturbing man...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting ATL:

Still think the NHC will stay with a TD to avoid a media panic and due to the fickle history of this system.


Agreed.
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2377. Patrap
93L NASA MSFC
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting BadHurricane:
TD#1 on Navy site!


good 'un
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,
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15813
Quoting BadHurricane:
TD#1 on Navy site!

I'm not getting that yet. Anyone else?
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WEll 93L better hurry its but up because 94L is developing fast.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km/zooms/WMBds100.png
shows serious low level vorticity at 13:14 and it's got way more impressive convection.
I was waiting but am now off to the boat to put it in a safe place. That vertex is way to close for my liking.
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2372. ATL
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No doubt that we have a TS. Waiting for the vortex message and then the renumber. It should be an interesting few hours coming.

Still think the NHC will stay with a TD to avoid a media panic and due to the fickle history of this system.
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AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Tropical Storm Alex needs to change course quickly if it has big plans
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2369. leo305
how do you guys put up the google earth thing

Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
2365. Levi32
21:15z...mapping the core to hone in on the center better.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
TD#1 on Navy site!
..tomorrow
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Alright guys. Have to go. Bye.

-Snowlover123
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what is your take stormw ts or not at this point
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


WOW!! Look at the 999 reading!! Screw a named storm, this is a CAT 61!!



lol
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00Z model runs ought to have a much better handle on things. Wouldn't be surprised to see some of them significantly different than the 18z runs.
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Quoting StadiumEffect:
LOL! I think it's an excitement thing. People get excited about tracking storms, and following how they develop. Then when the warnings start, it adds more excitement....that is, until a major hurricane pays you a visit and then you realize that excitement is best tempered with a bit of respect and fear. I've always been fascinated by hurricanes, and living in the Cayman Isl. we get brushed almost every year by a TS or hurricane. But I hadn't experienced a direct hit from a strong system and was "curious" to see what it would be like. Well...after Ivan, can say that I'm no longer curious. Now I'm a wish caster…..wishing that it goes elsewhere!


Like I was explaining to someone on here yesterday, I think anyone who would want damage, deaths, injuries, destruction has to have something wrong with them but it's just the idea of experiencing a hurricane and your right going through the watches and the warnings. Anyone on this blog who says their not interested in going through the excitment of an approaching hurricane in my opinion is not being honest. Once you come into this blog and start looking at the continuous post on any system that might be out there is here for the same reason every one of us is. So people shouldnt judge other people on here thinking their hollier than thou because were all on here for pretty much the same reason.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Do we have Alex???



it sure looks like it but but whats wait and see
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No doubt that we have a TS. Waiting for the vortex message and then the renumber. It should be an interesting few hours coming.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Levi32:
Solid west winds continue as the recon heads eastward mapping the core.

000
URNT15 KNHC 252115
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 40 20100625
210530 1556N 08400W 9784 00243 0062 +219 +180 278018 019 033 012 03
210600 1555N 08400W 9780 00246 0059 +235 +180 277016 018 017 002 00
210630 1553N 08400W 9778 00248 0059 +236 +180 279013 014 999 999 03
210700 1553N 08359W 9782 00244 0059 +235 +180 272012 013 013 002 03
210730 1553N 08357W 9778 00247 0059 +237 +180 274013 013 016 003 00
210800 1553N 08355W 9781 00245 0060 +232 +180 280013 014 017 003 00
210830 1553N 08354W 9778 00247 0058 +237 +180 280015 016 014 003 00
210900 1553N 08352W 9780 00245 0057 +238 +180 278017 018 020 002 00
210930 1553N 08350W 9781 00243 0056 +240 +180 275019 020 024 004 00
211000 1553N 08348W 9778 00243 0054 +240 +180 277021 021 026 006 00
211030 1553N 08346W 9785 00238 0054 +236 +180 278022 022 027 005 00
211100 1553N 08345W 9778 00242 0053 +237 +180 277022 022 027 005 00
211130 1553N 08343W 9781 00240 0054 +238 +180 275020 021 026 006 00
211200 1553N 08341W 9780 00243 0055 +234 +180 273020 020 024 001 00
211230 1553N 08339W 9781 00242 0055 +231 +180 271021 022 021 000 00
211300 1553N 08337W 9780 00243 0055 +234 +180 271021 022 018 000 00
211330 1553N 08336W 9780 00243 0054 +235 +180 274022 022 012 000 00
211400 1553N 08334W 9780 00242 0055 +236 +180 275022 022 013 000 00
211430 1553N 08332W 9781 00241 0054 +238 +180 271021 022 018 000 00
211500 1553N 08330W 9780 00242 0054 +236 +180 274022 022 020 000 00
$$
Quoting Levi32:
Solid west winds continue as the recon heads eastward mapping the core.

000
URNT15 KNHC 252115
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 40 20100625
210530 1556N 08400W 9784 00243 0062 +219 +180 278018 019 033 012 03
210600 1555N 08400W 9780 00246 0059 +235 +180 277016 018 017 002 00
210630 1553N 08400W 9778 00248 0059 +236 +180 279013 014 999 999 03
210700 1553N 08359W 9782 00244 0059 +235 +180 272012 013 013 002 03
210730 1553N 08357W 9778 00247 0059 +237 +180 274013 013 016 003 00
210800 1553N 08355W 9781 00245 0060 +232 +180 280013 014 017 003 00
210830 1553N 08354W 9778 00247 0058 +237 +180 280015 016 014 003 00
210900 1553N 08352W 9780 00245 0057 +238 +180 278017 018 020 002 00
210930 1553N 08350W 9781 00243 0056 +240 +180 275019 020 024 004 00
211000 1553N 08348W 9778 00243 0054 +240 +180 277021 021 026 006 00
211030 1553N 08346W 9785 00238 0054 +236 +180 278022 022 027 005 00
211100 1553N 08345W 9778 00242 0053 +237 +180 277022 022 027 005 00
211130 1553N 08343W 9781 00240 0054 +238 +180 275020 021 026 006 00
211200 1553N 08341W 9780 00243 0055 +234 +180 273020 020 024 001 00
211230 1553N 08339W 9781 00242 0055 +231 +180 271021 022 021 000 00
211300 1553N 08337W 9780 00243 0055 +234 +180 271021 022 018 000 00
211330 1553N 08336W 9780 00243 0054 +235 +180 274022 022 012 000 00
211400 1553N 08334W 9780 00242 0055 +236 +180 275022 022 013 000 00
211430 1553N 08332W 9781 00241 0054 +238 +180 271021 022 018 000 00
211500 1553N 08330W 9780 00242 0054 +236 +180 274022 022 020 000 00
$$


WOW!! Look at the 999 reading!! Screw a named storm, this is a CAT 61!!
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2354. centex
They will not wait until 8 to reclassify. I'm 99% sure. Never say never.
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Quoting iluvjess:


It's called an opinion. She is entitled to hers as you are yours. This blog is full of just that, opinions.


i like this post.
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Do we have Alex???
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Levi - thanks for the great work! You make tracking these systems very interesting and informative.


Also translates that as well. Lol.

-Snowlover123
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2350. Patrap
pssst...

93L
Pull my finger...C,mon
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Unless Dr. Masters writes up a new blog. I think 4K is likely if he doesn't.
That's why I said 3K because he is going to write a new post, if he doesn't 5K seems likely.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2347. Drakoen
Obs 40 full of West Winds
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30488
Levi - thanks for the great work! You make tracking these systems very interesting and informative.
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Quoting Levi32:
Solid west winds continue as the recon heads eastward mapping the core.

000
URNT15 KNHC 252115
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 40 20100625
210530 1556N 08400W 9784 00243 0062 +219 +180 278018 019 033 012 03
210600 1555N 08400W 9780 00246 0059 +235 +180 277016 018 017 002 00
210630 1553N 08400W 9778 00248 0059 +236 +180 279013 014 999 999 03
210700 1553N 08359W 9782 00244 0059 +235 +180 272012 013 013 002 03
210730 1553N 08357W 9778 00247 0059 +237 +180 274013 013 016 003 00
210800 1553N 08355W 9781 00245 0060 +232 +180 280013 014 017 003 00
210830 1553N 08354W 9778 00247 0058 +237 +180 280015 016 014 003 00
210900 1553N 08352W 9780 00245 0057 +238 +180 278017 018 020 002 00
210930 1553N 08350W 9781 00243 0056 +240 +180 275019 020 024 004 00
211000 1553N 08348W 9778 00243 0054 +240 +180 277021 021 026 006 00
211030 1553N 08346W 9785 00238 0054 +236 +180 278022 022 027 005 00
211100 1553N 08345W 9778 00242 0053 +237 +180 277022 022 027 005 00
211130 1553N 08343W 9781 00240 0054 +238 +180 275020 021 026 006 00
211200 1553N 08341W 9780 00243 0055 +234 +180 273020 020 024 001 00
211230 1553N 08339W 9781 00242 0055 +231 +180 271021 022 021 000 00
211300 1553N 08337W 9780 00243 0055 +234 +180 271021 022 018 000 00
211330 1553N 08336W 9780 00243 0054 +235 +180 274022 022 012 000 00
211400 1553N 08334W 9780 00242 0055 +236 +180 275022 022 013 000 00
211430 1553N 08332W 9781 00241 0054 +238 +180 271021 022 018 000 00
211500 1553N 08330W 9780 00242 0054 +236 +180 274022 022 020 000 00
$$



YAY
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO! Why you happy?


Who can tell with bovines?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting Tazmanian:



not sure this 93L been a pain in the butt too track from day one
True. But it's still a pain. We are rather certain it will impact the Yucatan but after that the pain in the butt returns.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2298: Thanks! We're all good.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
YAY am happy has a cow


I'm using the question mark technique from Storm. ?????

-Snowlover123
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
I dont see anything posted about it Alex from the NHC, Navy or atcf site


not yet any way give it time
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2339. Levi32
Solid west winds continue as the recon heads eastward mapping the core.

000
URNT15 KNHC 252115
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 40 20100625
210530 1556N 08400W 9784 00243 0062 +219 +180 278018 019 033 012 03
210600 1555N 08400W 9780 00246 0059 +235 +180 277016 018 017 002 00
210630 1553N 08400W 9778 00248 0059 +236 +180 279013 014 999 999 03
210700 1553N 08359W 9782 00244 0059 +235 +180 272012 013 013 002 03
210730 1553N 08357W 9778 00247 0059 +237 +180 274013 013 016 003 00
210800 1553N 08355W 9781 00245 0060 +232 +180 280013 014 017 003 00
210830 1553N 08354W 9778 00247 0058 +237 +180 280015 016 014 003 00
210900 1553N 08352W 9780 00245 0057 +238 +180 278017 018 020 002 00
210930 1553N 08350W 9781 00243 0056 +240 +180 275019 020 024 004 00
211000 1553N 08348W 9778 00243 0054 +240 +180 277021 021 026 006 00
211030 1553N 08346W 9785 00238 0054 +236 +180 278022 022 027 005 00
211100 1553N 08345W 9778 00242 0053 +237 +180 277022 022 027 005 00
211130 1553N 08343W 9781 00240 0054 +238 +180 275020 021 026 006 00
211200 1553N 08341W 9780 00243 0055 +234 +180 273020 020 024 001 00
211230 1553N 08339W 9781 00242 0055 +231 +180 271021 022 021 000 00
211300 1553N 08337W 9780 00243 0055 +234 +180 271021 022 018 000 00
211330 1553N 08336W 9780 00243 0054 +235 +180 274022 022 012 000 00
211400 1553N 08334W 9780 00242 0055 +236 +180 275022 022 013 000 00
211430 1553N 08332W 9781 00241 0054 +238 +180 271021 022 018 000 00
211500 1553N 08330W 9780 00242 0054 +236 +180 274022 022 020 000 00
$$
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Floodman:


And the blog goes silent



AHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA LOL
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1933 KEEPEROFTHEGATE "[Nothwestern Caribbean loop]"

Now that looks like it might cross the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche.

ezcColony "Would not you agree that the biggest thing against 93L being a tropical depression is that Jeff Masters has not posted any update to his blog?"

No, the biggest thing is that he hasn't pressed the TropicalDepression button on his WeatherControl master board yet.
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Vortex message should appear here when issued.
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I dont see anything posted about it Alex from the NHC, Navy or atcf site
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
Quoting Tazmanian:
YAY am happy has a cow


And the blog goes silent
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting Jeff9641:
I am hearing Alex from NHC is this true? winds at 40 mph.


No.
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Quoting bwt1982:


Definetly not a TS so if I have to pick one..... TD



have you even been following
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.