93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

Share this Blog
8
+

The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2729 - 2679

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

There is currently a 12 mb pressure gradient between Key West, FL and the CoC (a distance of greater than 500 miles).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml#contents

#1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD1!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2725. JLPR2
Quoting IKE:
TWC says it's still a wave...up to the minute info coming up on TWC! Woohoo!


:O They didnt have the decency to at least call it a broad Low?
LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1004 mb? Jeez.. way too low for a TD.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
2723. cg2916
Cue the 50 public advisories...
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2720. bappit
Quoting Levi32:
Honing in on the center:



Homing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This looks like a Pacific Tropical Depression
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2718. Levi32
000
WTNT31 KNHC 252159
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
83.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION
WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN
GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THERE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here we go!

000
WTNT31 KNHC 252159
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2716. IKE
TWC says it's still a wave...up to the minute info coming up on TWC! Woohoo!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
000
URNT15 KNHC 252155
1001.6mb

AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 44 20100625
214530 1650N 08339W 8425 01536 0039 +187 +180 034018 018 000 001 03
214600 1652N 08340W 8430 01532 0039 +190 +180 033018 019 002 001 03
214630 1653N 08342W 8430 01534 0038 +194 +180 036017 019 003 001 00
214700 1654N 08343W 8429 01535 0037 +197 +180 034018 020 005 000 00
214730 1656N 08345W 8432 01532 0038 +197 +180 037022 023 009 001 00
214800 1657N 08346W 8428 01539 0042 +193 +180 032024 025 001 000 00
214830 1658N 08347W 8430 01535 0044 +190 +180 033023 025 003 000 00
214900 1700N 08349W 8358 01609 0037 +190 +180 031022 023 003 000 00
214930 1701N 08350W 8030 01957 0042 +170 +170 039024 026 004 000 03
215000 1702N 08352W 7704 02313 0036 +159 +159 042025 027 000 000 03
215030 1704N 08353W 7369 02695 0038 +140 +140 045024 025 000 002 03
215100 1705N 08355W 7104 03005 0039 +121 +121 044020 020 000 000 03
215130 1706N 08356W 6863 03297 0049 +100 +100 041020 021 999 999 03
215200 1708N 08358W 6637 03579 0052 +084 +084 046018 018 999 999 03
215230 1709N 08359W 6438 03835 0049 +072 +072 052020 021 999 999 03
215300 1711N 08401W 6250 04081 0046 +059 +059 056019 019 999 999 03
215330 1712N 08402W 6066 04325 0037 +050 +050 053018 019 999 999 03
215400 1714N 08404W 5894 04536 0016 +034 +034 050019 020 999 999 03
215430 1715N 08406W 5739 04751 0017 +020 +020 049021 022 999 999 03
215500 1716N 08408W 5596 04974 0027 +008 +008 052021 022 999 999 03


WOW!! This is seriously not a depression, lol.

Is it possible for them to upgrade it to a TS in between the renumbering and the issuance of the special advisory? Or will they have to wait until the 11 PM advisory?
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2714. Levi32
The plane just started climbing to a much higher altitude. Not sure how accurate the 1001.6mb pressure reading is as it was extrapolated during the climb. They are about to leave I think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, it'll take me a while to get used to these new formats...
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
000
WTNT31 KNHC 252159
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
83.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION
WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN
GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THERE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
000
URNT15 KNHC 252155
1001.6mb

AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 44 20100625
214530 1650N 08339W 8425 01536 0039 +187 +180 034018 018 000 001 03
214600 1652N 08340W 8430 01532 0039 +190 +180 033018 019 002 001 03
214630 1653N 08342W 8430 01534 0038 +194 +180 036017 019 003 001 00
214700 1654N 08343W 8429 01535 0037 +197 +180 034018 020 005 000 00
214730 1656N 08345W 8432 01532 0038 +197 +180 037022 023 009 001 00
214800 1657N 08346W 8428 01539 0042 +193 +180 032024 025 001 000 00
214830 1658N 08347W 8430 01535 0044 +190 +180 033023 025 003 000 00
214900 1700N 08349W 8358 01609 0037 +190 +180 031022 023 003 000 00
214930 1701N 08350W 8030 01957 0042 +170 +170 039024 026 004 000 03
215000 1702N 08352W 7704 02313 0036 +159 +159 042025 027 000 000 03
215030 1704N 08353W 7369 02695 0038 +140 +140 045024 025 000 002 03
215100 1705N 08355W 7104 03005 0039 +121 +121 044020 020 000 000 03
215130 1706N 08356W 6863 03297 0049 +100 +100 041020 021 999 999 03
215200 1708N 08358W 6637 03579 0052 +084 +084 046018 018 999 999 03
215230 1709N 08359W 6438 03835 0049 +072 +072 052020 021 999 999 03
215300 1711N 08401W 6250 04081 0046 +059 +059 056019 019 999 999 03
215330 1712N 08402W 6066 04325 0037 +050 +050 053018 019 999 999 03
215400 1714N 08404W 5894 04536 0016 +034 +034 050019 020 999 999 03
215430 1715N 08406W 5739 04751 0017 +020 +020 049021 022 999 999 03
215500 1716N 08408W 5596 04974 0027 +008 +008 052021 022 999 999 03


If they dont stop looking the pressure may never stop falling !
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
2709. leo305
Quoting stormpetrol:
I doubt this storm will go to Belize, my bet is from Cozumel to the western tip of Cuba through the Yucatan Channel most likely as a strong TS or even a minimal hurricane, just my opinion of course I sure as heck feel sorry for those folks in the Gulf with the oil as this will only add a big insult to injury.


I agree with you
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
2708. Michfan


Great overall view.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
000
URNT15 KNHC 252155
1001.6mb

AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 44 20100625
214530 1650N 08339W 8425 01536 0039 +187 +180 034018 018 000 001 03
214600 1652N 08340W 8430 01532 0039 +190 +180 033018 019 002 001 03
214630 1653N 08342W 8430 01534 0038 +194 +180 036017 019 003 001 00
214700 1654N 08343W 8429 01535 0037 +197 +180 034018 020 005 000 00
214730 1656N 08345W 8432 01532 0038 +197 +180 037022 023 009 001 00
214800 1657N 08346W 8428 01539 0042 +193 +180 032024 025 001 000 00
214830 1658N 08347W 8430 01535 0044 +190 +180 033023 025 003 000 00
214900 1700N 08349W 8358 01609 0037 +190 +180 031022 023 003 000 00
214930 1701N 08350W 8030 01957 0042 +170 +170 039024 026 004 000 03
215000 1702N 08352W 7704 02313 0036 +159 +159 042025 027 000 000 03
215030 1704N 08353W 7369 02695 0038 +140 +140 045024 025 000 002 03
215100 1705N 08355W 7104 03005 0039 +121 +121 044020 020 000 000 03
215130 1706N 08356W 6863 03297 0049 +100 +100 041020 021 999 999 03
215200 1708N 08358W 6637 03579 0052 +084 +084 046018 018 999 999 03
215230 1709N 08359W 6438 03835 0049 +072 +072 052020 021 999 999 03
215300 1711N 08401W 6250 04081 0046 +059 +059 056019 019 999 999 03
215330 1712N 08402W 6066 04325 0037 +050 +050 053018 019 999 999 03
215400 1714N 08404W 5894 04536 0016 +034 +034 050019 020 999 999 03
215430 1715N 08406W 5739 04751 0017 +020 +020 049021 022 999 999 03
215500 1716N 08408W 5596 04974 0027 +008 +008 052021 022 999 999 03


Woah

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting Clearwater1:
Quoting CaneWarning:
Tampa met flat out just said that TD#1 will not be a problem for Tampa at all. There you have it.


Then I better put up my hurricane shutters.
Haha, same here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2705. Grothar
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
2200 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 83.5W AT 25/2200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 83.5W AT 25/2200Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 82.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 83.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wfyweather:
link? i cant find anything that calls this td1



invest_RENUMBER_al932010_al012010.ren

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
After analyzing the Hurricane Hunter data, I believe the center exists at 16.6 N and 83.5W. Current minimal central pressure is 1002.9 mb. Going back through all the data, the highest surface wind speed measured was 47.1 mph and there were several tropical storm force winds found within the system. In this forecaster's opinion, this should be classified as Tropical Storm Alex and not Tropical Depression 1.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
:O!!
000
WTNT31 KNHC 252159
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
83.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION
WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN
GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THERE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
000
URNT15 KNHC 252155
1001.6mb

AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 44 20100625
214530 1650N 08339W 8425 01536 0039 +187 +180 034018 018 000 001 03
214600 1652N 08340W 8430 01532 0039 +190 +180 033018 019 002 001 03
214630 1653N 08342W 8430 01534 0038 +194 +180 036017 019 003 001 00
214700 1654N 08343W 8429 01535 0037 +197 +180 034018 020 005 000 00
214730 1656N 08345W 8432 01532 0038 +197 +180 037022 023 009 001 00
214800 1657N 08346W 8428 01539 0042 +193 +180 032024 025 001 000 00
214830 1658N 08347W 8430 01535 0044 +190 +180 033023 025 003 000 00
214900 1700N 08349W 8358 01609 0037 +190 +180 031022 023 003 000 00
214930 1701N 08350W 8030 01957 0042 +170 +170 039024 026 004 000 03
215000 1702N 08352W 7704 02313 0036 +159 +159 042025 027 000 000 03
215030 1704N 08353W 7369 02695 0038 +140 +140 045024 025 000 002 03
215100 1705N 08355W 7104 03005 0039 +121 +121 044020 020 000 000 03
215130 1706N 08356W 6863 03297 0049 +100 +100 041020 021 999 999 03
215200 1708N 08358W 6637 03579 0052 +084 +084 046018 018 999 999 03
215230 1709N 08359W 6438 03835 0049 +072 +072 052020 021 999 999 03
215300 1711N 08401W 6250 04081 0046 +059 +059 056019 019 999 999 03
215330 1712N 08402W 6066 04325 0037 +050 +050 053018 019 999 999 03
215400 1714N 08404W 5894 04536 0016 +034 +034 050019 020 999 999 03
215430 1715N 08406W 5739 04751 0017 +020 +020 049021 022 999 999 03
215500 1716N 08408W 5596 04974 0027 +008 +008 052021 022 999 999 03




1001mb?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2700. cg2916
Tropical Depression ONE Storm Archive
Special Advisory products have been issued. Use links below for details.
Public
Advisory
none issued
in last 12 hrs Aviso
Publico
none issued
in last 12 hrs Forecast/
Advisory
#1
2200 UTC Forecast
Discussion
none issued
in last 12 hrs Wind Speed
Probabilities
none issued
in last 12 hrs
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
2699. IKE
18Z GFS@ 72 hours...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT21 KNHC 252158
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
2200 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
2697. cg2916
How long does the NHC wait after a renumber for a special advisory? They're probably calling Honduras and all those guys to "suggest" TS warnings.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
link? i cant find anything that calls this td1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2695. Levi32
000
URNT15 KNHC 252155
1001.6mb

AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 44 20100625
214530 1650N 08339W 8425 01536 0039 +187 +180 034018 018 000 001 03
214600 1652N 08340W 8430 01532 0039 +190 +180 033018 019 002 001 03
214630 1653N 08342W 8430 01534 0038 +194 +180 036017 019 003 001 00
214700 1654N 08343W 8429 01535 0037 +197 +180 034018 020 005 000 00
214730 1656N 08345W 8432 01532 0038 +197 +180 037022 023 009 001 00
214800 1657N 08346W 8428 01539 0042 +193 +180 032024 025 001 000 00
214830 1658N 08347W 8430 01535 0044 +190 +180 033023 025 003 000 00
214900 1700N 08349W 8358 01609 0037 +190 +180 031022 023 003 000 00
214930 1701N 08350W 8030 01957 0042 +170 +170 039024 026 004 000 03
215000 1702N 08352W 7704 02313 0036 +159 +159 042025 027 000 000 03
215030 1704N 08353W 7369 02695 0038 +140 +140 045024 025 000 002 03
215100 1705N 08355W 7104 03005 0039 +121 +121 044020 020 000 000 03
215130 1706N 08356W 6863 03297 0049 +100 +100 041020 021 999 999 03
215200 1708N 08358W 6637 03579 0052 +084 +084 046018 018 999 999 03
215230 1709N 08359W 6438 03835 0049 +072 +072 052020 021 999 999 03
215300 1711N 08401W 6250 04081 0046 +059 +059 056019 019 999 999 03
215330 1712N 08402W 6066 04325 0037 +050 +050 053018 019 999 999 03
215400 1714N 08404W 5894 04536 0016 +034 +034 050019 020 999 999 03
215430 1715N 08406W 5739 04751 0017 +020 +020 049021 022 999 999 03
215500 1716N 08408W 5596 04974 0027 +008 +008 052021 022 999 999 03
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2694. Grothar
Looks round.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Im expecting those TPS reports by 5 .



Ummmm, yeah
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
That fsumet guy just told us the advisory will be at 1004mb. I think this is the same guy from 2008 who would tell us the NHC advisories in advance.


Interesting...did he tell you whether it'd be designated as a TS or TD?
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
2691. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Snowlover123:


I heard that the Navy is classifying this as TD 1. Can anyone confirm this?

-Snowlover123



2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
94L.INVEST
01L.ONE

East Pacific
05E.DARBY
04E.CELIA


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have 3 minutes for my forecast to confirm....with a special advisory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:
Tampa met flat out just said that TD#1 will not be a problem for Tampa at all. There you have it.


Then I better put up my hurricane shutters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


I agree with him.
Not the storm what about the OIL!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2687. IKE
Quoting extreme236:
That fsumet guy just told us the advisory will be at 1004mb. I think this is the same guy from 2008 who would tell us the NHC advisories in advance.


I remember him. He changed his avatar. He helps quite a bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2686. fsumet
I guess no one can see my posts. It is TD 1 with 1004mb pressure to start. Special advisory will be out soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2684. Levi32
42-47 knot SFMR winds out of the SSW measured on the way into the center.

213700 1627N 08328W 9779 00229 0041 +207 +180 186017 020 047 030 03
213730 1628N 08330W 9772 00236 0041 +209 +180 186018 020 041 026 03
213800 1628N 08331W 9785 00223 0041 +212 +180 230008 016 045 024 03
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2683. Michfan
Wow that center sure is close to land but it just might be far enough north to skirt the Honduras coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD1 is also feeding off of convective activity over Central America and the Yucatan.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
That fsumet guy just told us the advisory will be at 1004mb. I think this is the same guy from 2008 who would tell us the NHC advisories in advance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Someone asked a few days ago if Darby would inhibit this system; very well could be the other way around lol

this thing is HUGE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2679. cg2916
Quoting CybrTeddy:
TD 1's likely nearing TS at this point, with a pressure of 1005 mb that's fairly deep for a TD.


1002.9 MB.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046

Viewing: 2729 - 2679

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
35 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron