93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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2779. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Look at the last part. Honestly, at this rate, who thinks it's gonna take 12 hours to get named Alex when data right now supports Alex is already here? And 24 hours to strengthen 10 mph? At this rate it'll 1/8 of that time.


They say in the discussion that it is very close to TS strength. It's a good forecast....no need to unload on them on the first advisory of the year.
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Remember when? Do you remember when TWC used to be just about weather... not Cantore Stories, or Storm Stories, or Business Updates, and News Headlines? Programming demised quite a few years ago (mid to late 90s) and then they were acquired by NBC. TWC is a poor excuse for weather programming... wish they would go back to the good ole days!
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if the GFS verifies, then that is a strong recurve.
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Quoting truecajun:
Ok. i'm going to ask a 4th time, forgive me it the other three times show up (i never saw my question post)

yesterday, Dr. Masters said that he did NOT think that 93L, our now TD1, would ever make it to Hurricane strength. Do you think this is still the case?



i doubt it, but it's basically a day to day scenario anyway Cajun.
It may not ever make it to Hurricane status frankly because it
does have quite a few obstacles ahead of it. Also once it passes
the Yucatan and gets 50-100 miles off the coast of the Yucatan
the weather modification rules will again be in affect.

So the Ultimate Intensity will still be nothing more than a very
interesting guessing game.
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Quoting connie1976:
Is it me or does there seem to be a lot of big waves coming off of Africa? Is this normal in June?


No. All part of the overall active year we will have in 2010. Need to also look at 94L as well! Looks impressive as well.

-Snowlover123
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am going to be a wishcaster and say TD 1 is exploding
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That 5 day bubble is pretty big. Obviously a lot of uncertainty with track.
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Quoting Levi32:


If it does slow down then it's trouble.


Yep.
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Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
2770. tkeith
2758. IKE 5:06 PM CDT on June 25, 2010

GFS take it right through the "spoil"...
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- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 4 5 18 27 25 30
TROP DEPRESSION 39 25 21 33 29 24 22
TROPICAL STORM 58 66 65 44 37 43 39
HURRICANE 2 5 9 6 6 9 10
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 4 7 4 5 8 8
HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 X X 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 25KT 30KT 35KT 40KT
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
2768. bappit
Quoting smmcdavid:


I didn't want to say anything, but some people think I'm pretty awesome... lol. True story.


She mommed us yesterday.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1004
MB. BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF WIND DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.

THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER WEAKENING OVER
LAND...THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF
INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
300/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THEREFORE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2200Z 16.5N 83.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W 40 KT



Look at the last part. Honestly, at this rate, who thinks it's gonna take 12 hours to get named Alex when data right now supports Alex is already here? And 24 hours to strengthen 10 mph? At this rate it'll 1/8 of that time, or less.
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Wow, Blog is exploding! The 1st Depression, eh? This is the 1st Atlantic Depression, fr me to comment on, in this blog! Sweet! :)

-Snowlover123
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2765. SeALWx
*del*
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
After analyzing the Hurricane Hunter data, I believe the center exists at 16.6 N and 83.5W. Current minimal central pressure is 1002.9 mb. Going back through all the data, the highest surface wind speed measured was 47.1 mph and there were several tropical storm force winds found within the system. In this forecaster's opinion, this should be classified as Tropical Storm Alex and not Tropical Depression 1.


they are erring on conservative side, in my opinion, because of the media frenzy with the oil.
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Quoting swfla:
Why does the tropical page on WU show TD1 off the coast of Africa?


Probably that Fox News guy who said there were two hurricanes in the Gulf.
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Is it me or does there seem to be a lot of big waves coming off of Africa? Is this normal in June?
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2761. Michfan
The WU page bugs out sometimes. Takes a bit for it to catch up to all the advisories.
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2760. Dakster
The pot has finally boiled, despite all of us watching it.

So it looks like NHC expects this storm to survive passing over the Yucatan... The gulf states (and Mexico) better watch this one closely, especially with that bath water temp.
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2759. Levi32
Quoting IKE:
Looks like it slows down between Monday and Wednesday on their track....probably the trough influencing it.


If it does slow down then it's trouble.
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2758. IKE
102 hr. 18Z GFS....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2757. swfla
Why does the tropical page on WU show TD1 off the coast of Africa?
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Could someone please post the 6pm advisory again?
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NOT trying to be a wishcaster or an alarmist, but do any of the experts on this blog feel this has an opportunity to pull a "Wilma" on us? Just here to learn and observe. I ask this due to an eerily reminiscent outflow pattern and central structure before the big "boom" Wilma put on overnight, as well as the ridiculously high TCHP. TIA! ;)
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2754. IKE
Looks like it slows down between Monday and Wednesday on their track....probably the trough influencing it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2753. Michfan
Lets hope to god that forecast track holds true. Further east and we will have more than just a mess on our hands with that oil spill.
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Its breaking news on CNN LMAO!
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2751. JLPR2
Quoting IKE:
GFS at 84 hours/18Z....



now the GFS gets it XD
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Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4898
2749. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
oh they're taking it towards Texas than Mainland Mexico
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
IMO guys i think they caught it during Rapid Intensification this could be a moderate TS by tonight
I agree.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Its about to get crazy...

Im out.
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Quoting IKE:
TWC says it's still a wave...up to the minute info coming up on TWC! Woohoo!


TWC being as useful and resourceful as always! Way to go TWC!
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1004
MB. BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF WIND DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.

THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER WEAKENING OVER
LAND...THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF
INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
300/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THEREFORE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2200Z 16.5N 83.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W 40 KT

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2743. IKE
GFS at 84 hours/18Z....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
IMO guys i think they caught it during Rapid Intensification this could be a moderate TS by tonight
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2740. Levi32
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Latest model runs show it coming on shore N of Belize i hope this is the case because we have a lot of keys that would have to be evacuated and would probably only have tomorrow to do it before weather would deteriorate so planes and boaths would not transport people
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Now everyone will come on the blog crazy...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2736. Levi32
Forecast to become a tropical storm and then cross the Yucatan as a TD and restrengthen on the other side.


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1004
MB. BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF WIND DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.

THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER WEAKENING OVER
LAND...THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF
INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
300/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THEREFORE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2200Z 16.5N 83.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ONE, AL, L, , , , , 01, 2010, TD, O, 2010062112, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL012010
AL, 01, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 120N, 643W, 15, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 01, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 127N, 654W, 20, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 01, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 134N, 665W, 20, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 01, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 140N, 676W, 20, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 688W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062200, , BEST, 0, 149N, 700W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 01, 2010062206, , BEST, 0, 151N, 715W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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AL, 01, 2010062300, , BEST, 0, 156N, 752W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062306, , BEST, 0, 157N, 763W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062312, , BEST, 0, 159N, 768W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062318, , BEST, 0, 161N, 777W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062400, , BEST, 0, 162N, 782W, 25, 1009, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062406, , BEST, 0, 164N, 793W, 25, 1009, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062412, , BEST, 0, 163N, 803W, 25, 1008, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062418, , BEST, 0, 162N, 810W, 25, 1008, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 816W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 01, 2010062506, , BEST, 0, 163N, 821W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 01, 2010062512, , BEST, 0, 165N, 825W, 30, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 100, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 01, 2010062518, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 100, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

The Weather Channel just announced it's a TD.

-Snowlover123
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Yay, it's close enough to land that they will be issuing intermediate advisories with 01L.
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2733. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Michfan:


Great overall view.
MONSTER
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
1004 mb? Jeez.. way too low for a TD.
We even got down to 1002mb, expect a TS at 8PM.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


WOW!! This is seriously not a depression, lol.

Is it possible for them to upgrade it to a TS in between the renumbering and the issuance of the special advisory? Or will they have to wait until the 11 PM advisory?




i see a upgrade comeing at 8pm
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2730. Grothar
Sorry, Levi, we all beat you on this one. LOL
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There is currently a 12 mb pressure gradient between Key West, FL and the CoC (a distance of greater than 500 miles).
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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