93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

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The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TexasHurricane:


how much?




GFS 12Z forecast in 6 days. Notice the offshoot of Alex east of Long Island and another one near the Carolinas.

Quoting futuremet:
This can't be right. The GFS has it stalling for days in the Bay of Campeche.


It sends some energy into the Gulf Stream as well. I'm guessing it's the forecasted shear tearing the storm apart.

Quoting Drakoen:
Something about the way this system look is just too ominous...


It resembles a large WPac storm. The way the SST patterns are set up this year, I think we could see plenty of large hurricanes. Especially in the open Western Atlantic and Gulf.

Quoting whipster:


Agree. Too early, too big.


This is tecnically a Cape Verde system, the way that Katrina was a Cape Verde system but didn't develop until about 75W. This storm has been picking up energy since it left Africa as 92L.

Quoting RecordSeason:
I think the trough will have some affect on this system especially if it gets stronger down the road....I can clearly see a hook into Central or Northern Texas or god forbid i say it Louisiana...

At this size, it doesn't need to go anywhere near Louisiana to cause serious problems. Winds out of the south for days at 25+kts sustained will push massive amounts of storm surge and oil inland.


Especially if it slows down, stalls or turns to the northeast, as it is forecast to do.
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3128. Michfan
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Mich, thats what high SST's do for you. TCHP has been high in that region, thus we are seeing what this system is doing with the beneficial waters.


I know. Its just in the past things like these were a rarity. Its just amazing to watch the rapid intensification events we've seen over the past few years on this blog.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


WTH was the point of that?


what was the point of ur original post....huh...

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3126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
01L
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE 0:00UTC 30May2009
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 40:51:38 N
Longitude : 60:51:46 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 1012.0 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : N/A
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : N/A

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 10.2 m/s
Direction : 345.1 deg

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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


No. The Ike blogs got over 7,000 comments in 15 hours. But 5k by midnight EDT, sure.


well if the system gets upgraded the posts will proably double in
another 6 hours on a friday night.

so it could easily be close to a record depending upon what the storm
does i guess and whether or not STORMTOP logs on tonight! haha


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3123. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Mich, thats what high SST's do for you. TCHP has been high in that region, thus we are seeing what this system is doing with the beneficial waters.
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Egocaster...my personal fav
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am hoping TD 1 makes it too cat 3
Why would this guy say the above??? Sounds Unstable!
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1004
MB. BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF WIND DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.

THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER WEAKENING OVER
LAND...THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF
INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
300/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THEREFORE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2200Z 16.5N 83.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN



been posted
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GoNavyBeatArmycasters...
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3116. Drakoen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1004
MB. BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF WIND DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.

THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER WEAKENING OVER
LAND...THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF
INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
300/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THEREFORE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2200Z 16.5N 83.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
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Hiya.
Looks like TD1 is about to get fix with the anticyclone.

PGSuggested
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
3113. Patrap
Wake up in the morning feeling like TD=1
(Hey, what up Cyclone?)

Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)

Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one

Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows

Trying on all our GOES,GOES

Post's blowing up our phones, phones

Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies

Trying to get a little bit tipsy..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting wuest:


eww


WTH was the point of that?
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Check out the Pyrocumulus I shot today.

Link
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3109. Ossqss
Humm, the list is lacking -

Miscasters :) L8R
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The center is going to make landfall in Honduras. Unless the storm starts moving north soon or the center re-forms over the ocean, it will lose some of the organization that it took so long to build. Don't get too excited... it just might fizzle.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
They are all here tonight;

Wishcasters
Downcasters
Westcasters
Eastcasters
Centralcasters
Bastardicasters
Oilcasters
Tarcasters
Mexicocasters
Texascasters
Louisianacasters
Mississippicasters
Alabamacasters
Floridacasters

The only two I have not seen are the fishcaster and the JFVcaster
Cat9casters

GoUSAbeatGhanacaster
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3106. Michfan


Wow
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Quoting CapeObserver:


Taz are you sure someone hasn't hijacked your handle?



nop it me the be loveing TAZ
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3104. JLPR2
94L is farther to the west than most think, seems to close to that new area of convection

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Quoting Tazmanian:
will the good new is that the oil will be gone from the gulf


taz...you are not as funny as you think you are. >.<
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801. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 4:34 PM EST on June 08, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


I'm praying for something that hurts no one before then. Want to see a shirt on that raggedy body. Lol



If we get a named storm east of 60W and south of 25N in the Atlantic basin by June 30, I will put on a shirt ;)

Don't take big chances do you?
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94L not looking like much as it's still very susceptible to those diurnal fluctuations, but I definitely see some potential for slow development.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
3100. Michfan


Wow
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


No. The Ike blogs got over 7,000 comments in 15 hours. But 5k by midnight EDT, sure.



7,000??? show me a blog that has 7,000 commets
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Quoting StormW:


Man...glad I'm a forecaster.


LOL STORM!
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3097. Patrap
TD-1
Floater - Visible Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting wuest:
im going on a vacation to the Yucatan Peninsula in two days the weather wil be ok right? People told me it will be ok are they right?

You should be fine, if you like rain and windy conditions. Take the boat ride to Cancun if you get the chance.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am hoping TD 1 makes it too cat 3


Taz are you sure someone hasn't hijacked your handle?
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3094. Walshy
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
They are all here tonight;

Wishcasters
Downcasters
Westcasters
Eastcasters
Centralcasters
Bastardicasters
Oilcasters
Tarcasters
Mexicocasters
Texascasters
Louisianacasters
Mississippicasters
Alabamacasters
Floridacasters

The only two I have not seen are the fishcaster and the JFVcaster
Cat9casters


Classic Post!
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Glad you are too Storm... somebody's gotta do the dirty work! LOL
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Is that YOU JFV? Lol.



LOL
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3088. JLPR2
Quoting aspectre:
2967 JLPR2 "Celia seems to be shrinking away"

Curses, foiled again... If it could have held itself together as a Cat.5 for another 25hundred miles, we coulda given the Hawaiians a good scare.


LOL, funny but wrong at the same time XD
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am hoping TD 1 makes it too cat 3


Is that YOU JFV? Lol.
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Quoting StormW:


Guess what? POOF!



lol
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http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/go/doc/2931/712211/
Re: ...the weather down in the Gulf, Admiral,

ADMIRAL ALLEN: Well, as you know, this has been an issue of ongoing discussion ....

In general, our threshold to start taking action is 120 hours before gale-force winds are forecasted. That can be a different set of mileage, just depending on the track and the speed of the storm. But in general, at about 120 hours out of the onset of gale-force winds, we will start to redeploy the equipment from the well site, redeploy other equipment to safe venues...
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Quoting StormW:


Man...glad I'm a forecaster.


lol Storm...funny! :-)
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3082. Ossqss
Shivering shower curtains! We have a TD!

So is the trough going to pull it or the high push it?
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Quoting wuest:
im going on a vacation to the Yucatan Peninsula in two days the weather wil be ok right? People told me it will be ok are they right?


what do you think please use common sense
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3080. JLPR2
Quoting RecordSeason:
3055:

No.

The tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic, along with the upper level low are starting to tap that moisture.

You can see it on atlantic infrared or RGB imagery.



ah, thank you, yes it seems the ULL is the one pulling it towards the SE
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the blog has over 3,000 posts and it's only mid friday!
a record will be broken here soon if we dont get a new
blog later this evening. LOL!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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