93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

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The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, June 24th, with Video
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Guidance has been spot on as to when it forms..most likely in 24.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting AllStar17:


It appears there are two separate entities now. SW of Jamaica, and SE/S of Jamaica.




nope just one closed surface low forming,but its just about neck'ed and moving slowly towards land,however that should be changing over the next 24hrs IMO....
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The convective mass just south and east of Jamaica still has pronounced mid-level rotation, apparent on visible imagery. It seems to be getting more organized, as 93L continues to chug along to the WNW.
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Sorry guys but i asked that question before yet no one responded sorry I got fustrated, I felt that people were ignoring me. I abbrieviated it to make it short.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


I know that but what does it mean?


Seems pretty self explanatory if you read it!
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Quoting StormW:
Here we go!


Looking at satellite loops, though, it looks like it is headed for Nicaragua. Please correct me if I am wrong. It does not look like it is slowing down, either.
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this will be just in time for the 2 o'clock adv. LOL
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Quoting Floodman:


Timing, timing, timing...the scenario is plausible, but at this point, given the lack of strong (or even moderate) development a coin toss is about as reasonable as the models...just sayin'


Flood, I just tossed a coin and it landed on tails. Please tell me what that means!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
543. 900MB
Quoting StormW:
Here we go!


? You think this is time it starts to crank up, Storm? What are your thoughts at current?
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Quoting StormW:


Did ya read it?


Meaning the possibility of a TD forming within the next 24-48 hours.
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What does it mean? I think this sums it up.

WTNT21 KNGU 241500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 241430Z JUN 10//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 79.6W TO 17.7N 83.8W WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 79.6W IS CURRENTLY MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS. AT 24/1200Z INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND IS
TRACKING TOWARDS WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 86 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
BY 251500Z JUN 2010.//
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Quoting StormW:
Here we go!
Starting to get thunderstorms near the coc.
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537. IKE
Quoting tropicfreak:


I know that but what does it mean?


Means it has a shot at becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.

EDIT: correction..24 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting tropicfreak:


I know that but what does it mean?

It means that a cyclone may form soon. It's alerting you to the possibility of it happening.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


I know that but what does it mean?


Q: What is a "Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA)"?

A: A TCFA designates an area where JTWC is most likely to begin issuing tropical cyclone warnings within the next 24 hours. This information is provided to the DoD and other U.S. government agencies for operations planning.


Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
I for one will cheer when this is named a TD1. I have watched it for far too long not to be excited. That cheer will be very short though because I know this storm is going to screw over a lot of people and bring more oil to more beaches.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Patrap:


I pay the Boy to mow..and watch from Inside and chuckle.

Just Like my Dad used to do.


I'll be training my boy this year when we move to a house with a bigger yard LOL!
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what am i looking at storm?
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Quoting tropicfreak:
WHAT IS A TCFA????!!!!!!!!!!!


TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ADVISORY
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Quoting Jedkins01:



That forecast probably will materialize to at least some degree, this is a common step that seems to occur several times each summer: a tropical wave entering the gulf and a deep trough digging into the deep south.


Timing, timing, timing...the scenario is plausible, but at this point, given the lack of strong (or even moderate) development a coin toss is about as reasonable as the models...just sayin'
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Quoting Jedkins01:



The GFS is beginning to support my idea of the eastern half of the gulf getting drenched...



I've seen considerable skill in the ensembles for predicting high Impact Weather events over the last few years. NWC and CMC produce the NAEFS which is a 40 member ensemble; 20 GFSE and 20 GEM, accessible from www.weatheroffice.gc.ca under Analysis and Modeling. Especially in situations where the system that may or may not bring severe weather has not yet devloped, ensemble forecasts, statistically, are more reliable than any single deterministic run and they are designed to prduce a reasonable asessment of probability and predictabliity, which, beyond 4 or 5 days is far more valuable information than any single model track.

The quote point: The NAEFS has been indicating a high (50% ) probability rain event for the NE gulf coast for about 3 days. (starting June 28-29).
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528. IKE
Quoting StormW:
Here we go!


StormW....I'm finally starting to see the entire rotation of 93L. Large circulation.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting AllStar17:
I wonder if this TCFA means the NHC will make it red at the 2 pm TWO.


I think they will.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting IKE:



Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.


I know that but what does it mean?
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I wonder if this TCFA means the NHC will make it red at the 2 pm TWO.
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522. IKE
Quoting tropicfreak:
WHAT IS A TCFA????!!!!!!!!!!!



Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
WHAT IS A TCFA????!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Sure thing, I'm a forgiving person.

I just get tired of seeing so much of that in these blogs, that's all.


Alrighty then...LOL
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I really wish people would stop asking the stupid question " where is it going" its hard enough trying to find the coc so my answer to those who want to know "where is it going" would be where ever you want it to go. this just is just something that gets on my nerves because we dont even have a td yet when we get one then ask the question but until then just sit back and relax when we figuare it out we would be glad to let you know
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Its currently running in parallel with the operational version. If it shows the expected improvements and no degradation from the current version it is scheduled to be implemented July 27.


Good :)
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Quoting Jeff9641:
SSE of Jamaica is going to blossom as this next piece od energy settles in. The swirl SW doesn't have much convetion to me as NHC says. i am inclined to think something SSE of Jamaica.


It appears there are two separate entities now. SW of Jamaica, and SE/S of Jamaica.
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Quoting IKE:
Wind direction, if the newer GFS verifies should push tons of oil onshore....



If that happens we may have oil in Tampa. A local met said last night that a storm is just about the only way we'd get oil here.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting 69Viking:


IKE it doesn't seem to wanna stop raining this year, I had 3 inches at the house Friday night at least another 3-4 inches since then! My front yard is a frog pond, they sing us to sleep at night! If that forecast holds true my pond might turn into a lake!



That forecast probably will materialize to at least some degree, this is a common step that seems to occur several times each summer: a tropical wave entering the gulf and a deep trough digging into the deep south.
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Quoting 69Viking:


I wait until the evening when the sun drops below the neighbors house and trees, usually 10-15 degrees cooler when that happens!


I pay the Boy to mow..and watch from Inside and chuckle.

Just Like my Dad used to do.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Floodman:


Yeah, now I've watched a LOT of video from the sea floor and I must've missed that one


LOL, I must have missed it too!
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Today is the best chance for 93L out of all the days this week.
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93L's running out of time 1/3 of its surface cirulations already over land,its going to need to start moving Northerly or slow down alot/stall...
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Quoting 69Viking:


Mowing your lawn at midday when the Sun is highest in the sky in Florida??? You looking for a heat stroke or trying to drop some pounds?


===

Ne'er quite understood that one. You see it all the time in Louisiana too. It's 98 degrees outside at 1:30p.m., and some nut job is outside mowing grass...with a push lawn mower of all things.


I wait until the evening when the sun drops below the neighbors house and trees, usually 10-15 degrees cooler when that happens!
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Quoting 69Viking:


Did you say wench?


Yeah, now I've watched a LOT of video from the sea floor and I must've missed that one
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
WTNT21 KNGU 241500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 241430Z JUN 10//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 79.6W TO 17.7N 83.8W WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 79.6W IS CURRENTLY MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS. AT 24/1200Z INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND IS
TRACKING TOWARDS WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 86 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
BY 251500Z JUN 2010.//


Lat/Lon is SW of Jamaica. Right where Storm and Drake have been saying all along.


What is a tropical cyclone formation alert?????
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Quoting 69Viking:


Mowing your lawn at midday when the Sun is highest in the sky in Florida??? You looking for a heat stroke or trying to drop some pounds?


===

Ne'er quite understood that one. You see it all the time in Louisiana too. It's 98 degrees outside at 1:30p.m., and some nut job is outside mowing grass...with a push lawn mower of all things.


If you grow up doing that, it seems logical. Ummmm.
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497. TampaSpin 4:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2010
Quoting 69Viking:


Did you say wench?


Ya, i think i spelled it correct...winch...i don't remember....where is spell check when you need it or chicklit..is really good at this stuff!

Attempting to put another cap on the line replacing the one that was removed when it was damaged a couple of days ago.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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