93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

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The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Tomorrow will be the last day that I follow 93L if it doesnt show any signs of development. 5 days is a long time...

I don't know why 93L has been having such a difficult time developing.
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I think the energy from over near haiti is surging westward towards the LLC(when/if this happens we should see explosive convection as it becomes vertically stacked and vents in the UL via the anti-cyclone aloft),this is one interesting invest!!!!
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I will believe Alex exists when my eyes actually see it
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I agree
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1224. sporteguy03 8:13 PM GMT on June 24, 2010
Seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the NWS offices in Florida then Ike.


Just seems as if the NWS offices in Florida are using some common-sense forecasting... saying we don't know exactly where it is going, we just know it is going to increase the chance for rain at the least.

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Quoting TampaSpin:


HEY HEY...no need to use Tampa as an example.....use someplace like Panama City or Lake Charles or Miami.......NOT TAMPA....LOL
LOL! Not Miami. Maybe Kentucky.
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Tomorrow will be the last day that I follow 93L if it doesnt show any signs of development. 5 days is a long time...

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Depending on a storms location in the Gulf, couldn’t the rotation spin some oil into the loop current?
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Quoting MrstormX:


I agree, in fact shear was similar as well. I think we are definitely witnessing the birth of Alex.
I don't see anything stopping 93L from becoming Alex.
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Quoting Floodman:


The Navy is a little easier with the issuance of warnings and advisories; if you will look at the timing, it was about the time the anticyclone and the low lined up...

I want you to look at the satellite presentation of this feature and tell me: is this an immediate threat? Does this thing have a shot at serious formation in the next 48 hours?

I'm not saying it's dead; I[m saying we have a lot of time before anyone can make a clean call on a general area for landfall and any indication of intensity. It's the same thing everry year, and I'm not saying it's you, but people come in here and say crazy stuff like "CAT3 in Tampa" or "The season is dead"...patience, consideration and reasonable thought


HEY HEY...no need to use Tampa as an example.....use someplace like Panama City or Lake Charles or Miami.......NOT TAMPA....LOL
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Quoting 900MB:
Wow, gone for a few hours and everyone seems to be all over the place again!

The only difference that I see over a few hours is that convection is getting much closer to the LLC. I don't see any relocation of LLC, just convection starting to catch up. What am I missing here?
No you are not thats what i see as well.
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Quoting BradentonBrew:


Florida can't breathe easy. A tropical system to the west of the oil spill will have negative consequences for our beaches.

Yes indeed..
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Quoting Floodman:


The Navy is a little easier with the issuance of warnings and advisories; if you will look at the timing, it was about the time the anticyclone and the low lined up...

I want you to look at the satellite presentation of this feature and tell me: is this an immediate threat? Does this thing have a shot at serious formation in the next 48 hours?

I'm not saying it's dead; I[m saying we have a lot of time before anyone can make a clean call on a general area for landfall and any indication of intensity. It's the same thing every year, and I'm not saying it's you, but people come in here and say crazy stuff like "CAT3 in Tampa" or "The season is dead"...patience, consideration and reasonable thought
Ok. But there is a checklist that has to be followed when issuing a TCFA. Just because an anticyclone is placed directly aloft doesn't mean that it's an instant TCFA being issued.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Afternoon, Yes MrstormX, I do see the similarity. Cindy came right over my house and she was the convincer to leave for above.Cat. 1 storms. Yep also, Skyepony been talkin' bout that other blob for a while.


I recall Cindy had a nasty tornado outbreak accompanying it but could be wrong about that actually.
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1237. 900MB
Wow, gone for a few hours and everyone seems to be all over the place again!

The only difference that I see over a few hours is that convection is getting much closer to the LLC. I don't see any relocation of LLC, just convection starting to catch up. What am I missing here?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If it were all of those things why was a TCFA issued?


Hey! You didn't answer my question...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, that's insane.


I agree, in fact shear was similar as well. I think we are definitely witnessing the birth of Alex.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


So it's an exact replica without the exact part.. or even the replica part.


lol
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Quoting IKE:


That isn't a TD?

Until yesterday the GFS just showed 93L as some moisture in the GOM.
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Afternoon, Yes MrstormX, I do see the similarity. Cindy came right over my house and she was the convincer to leave for above.Cat. 1 storms. Yep also, Skyepony been talkin' bout that other blob for a while.
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I would like to disagree with what is being said here. Please put that in your record book.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If it were all of those things why was a TCFA issued?


The Navy is a little easier with the issuance of warnings and advisories; if you will look at the timing, it was about the time the anticyclone and the low lined up...

I want you to look at the satellite presentation of this feature and tell me: is this an immediate threat? Does this thing have a shot at serious formation in the next 48 hours?

I'm not saying it's dead; I[m saying we have a lot of time before anyone can make a clean call on a general area for landfall and any indication of intensity. It's the same thing everry year, and I'm not saying it's you, but people come in here and say crazy stuff like "CAT3 in Tampa" or "The season is dead"...patience, consideration and reasonable thought
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AL, 93, 2010062418, , BEST, 0, 165N, 815W, 25, 1008, WV,
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1228. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not what I meant. I was thinking more towards a development standpoint. Most models developed 93L into a hurricane, this one hasn't even thought TD status.


That isn't a TD?

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Quoting RitaEvac:
Florida folks on blog can breathe easy, this has TX/LA written all over it.


Florida can't breathe easy. A tropical system to the west of the oil spill will have negative consequences for our beaches.
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Wilma is an exact replica with the exception of it going to Florida and its strength.



So it's an exact replica without the exact part.. or even the replica part.
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Seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the NWS offices in Florida then Ike.
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Quoting MrstormX:
There are also noticeable similarities in overall structure between Cindy and 93L, I think its a good system to compare 93L against.



Wow, that's insane.
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1222. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:

well this aint 2009 its 2010 new year also gfs did a bad job developing the lasest storm in the epac


Really?
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The only way we help 93L is let him RIP and then later this weekend he will rise up and become alex the great
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Dont listen to them there just so bad i cant even watch them anymore it hurts.

Yea that share nonsense!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


How did it fail to recognize 93L?

GFS has consistently shown 93L as nothing more than showers, thunderstorms and a possible low pressure that isn't closed

up to this point, that is all 93L has been
Not what I meant. I was thinking more towards a development standpoint. Most models developed 93L into a hurricane, this one hasn't even thought TD status.
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1218. IKE
I agree there's very little convection near the supposed center of 93L. It's heading toward Thursday night. Looks like 93L won't be upgraded anytime soon based of what I visual see of it.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
yup i was this about too say some in




this little thing may be are new 93L and i said MAY BE this thing has a good spin too it this zoon in



I am looking at everything and i truly believe the Blob behind 93L is the sleeper about to awake...NOthing near the Surface yet...and yes i know Climatiolgy would not suggest that area would develop either and i don't think it will either until it gets further West!
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40-50mph storm is not going to send massive swells to Florida, especially of its coming off the Yucatan
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Wilma is an exact replica with the exception of it going to Florida and its strength.



Only similarities between Cindy and Wilma is they both were in 2005
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There are also noticeable similarities in overall structure between Cindy and 93L, I think its a good system to compare 93L against.



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well no recon tomorrow either i guess
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We need Bill Murray around this blog.
The last 4 days with 93L(WUWU#2) have been like Groundhog Day.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, it's failed to recognize 93L too.


How did it fail to recognize 93L?

GFS has consistently shown 93L as nothing more than showers, thunderstorms and a possible low pressure that isn't closed

up to this point, that is all 93L has been
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Quoting IKE:


CMC was best in 2009 on track...by far, according to Dr. Masters on his show a couple of days ago.
After 93L does what it does we'll see which one does the best...
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Quoting helove2trac:
well back to square 1 twc just RIP 93L so what now
Dont listen to them there just so bad i cant even watch them anymore it hurts.
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1205. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That was in 1-3 days, I'm thinking more towards 4-5 days.


CMC was best in 2009 on track...by far, according to Dr. Masters on his show a couple of days ago.
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Quoting 69Viking:


You're wrong, a hurricane going South of the Oil spill into the TX/LA border area would be terrible for Florida, the circulation around the storm would push all the oil North and East right into Florida. I'd rather a Cat 1 hurricane hit the Panhandle of Florida and then the circulation would push the oil North and West away from the Florida coast. Regardless of where this storm goes in the GOM it's going to make beaches somewhere an oily mess. I don't see any good scenario here other than no development but like that's going to happen over the next 3-4 months!

It's not a win-win situation no matter how you look at it!
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Quoting Floodman:


I think a better question is:
Which model is best at predicting cyclogenesis, track and intensity on a system that isn't vertically stacked, isn't generating much by way of convection and seems to have a very minor and disorganized surface circulation...anyone?
If it were all of those things why was a TCFA issued?
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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