93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

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The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Guess this "L" was put there by accident then

Nope. There is a LLC. Look at any product you want, I'm sure you'll see it.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21157
Quoting kmanislander:
93L is now pulling in the deep convection to the SW of Jamaica at a fairly quick clip. That can be seen easily in this visible loop.

That said, it is perilously close to the NE coast of Honduras and in imminent danger of " running aground " there. It would be ironic if just as it finally got its act together it ran out of sea room.

If it is to survive and become a TD it will need to make a hard right turn very soon and in any event within the next 6 hours or so..


It is nearly stationary as Drak has said so well shall see if it can.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
Convection finally getting closer to the low center of 93L.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't know why 93L has been having such a difficult time developing.
I think it might be the prayers of the people on the Gulfcoast!
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
1298. gator23
Im confused, didnt we get a TCFA? Doesnt that indicate we know have a LLC?
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1297. 900MB
Quoting Drakoen:
I see that convection continues to increase with 93L as the low is nearly stationary at this hour. Ascat pass suggests the system has a large circulation.



When are they going to buy an ascat that actually picks up the whole picture??
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't see anything stopping 93L from becoming Alex.
You've been saying that for 2 weeks.
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looks like the LLC has stalled just NE of the honduras/nicaragua border ???
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Here's what JB says this afternoon

THURSDAY 2:15 PM
DOWN GOES THE DC RECORD

The 99 at Washington, D.C. has broken a record that is over 100 years old. The spike of temperatures is liable to make this afternoon hit 100, but if we don't get it today, we have Sunday.

The system in the western Caribbean has its low-level center west of the mid-level center. This is not from shearing, but simply because it's the way the pattern is evolving. This should be a tropical storm by the time it reaches the Yucatan Saturday night or Sunday.

Ciao for now. ****
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Quoting IKE:
No LLC at all w/93L....




No Upper Level Divergence either....



Guess this "L" was put there by accident then

SARCASM FLAG: ON

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Quoting RitaEvac:
I will believe Alex exists when my eyes actually see it


Yeah, yeah...I now you, even then you'll need a good flogging
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Very broad area of Low pressure that is turning on in the mid levels without much Convection to get an engine running in the lower levels. What has been missing is a strong sustained Blob of Storms failing to create a LLC!
What I meant was, since conditions are so favorable, why is it having such a tough time developing? But what you said above is true, it just isn't sustaining itself.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21157
Also, the wind shear forecast is highly uncertain into early next week in the Gulf. I agree, if 93L does develop and emerge into the gulf, it could and should develop fast. Temperatures are above 29C, but we are not positive about wind shear. Keep that in mind if it does develop and turns into the southern Gulf.

It's like cooking. You need all of the right ingredients to come together if you want a good meal. Or in this case, a good storm. If you miss one ingredient, it won't be the best product in the world.
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1287. 900MB
Quoting CaneAddict:
I can't quite understand why so many people are writing off 93L. I don't know if it's a smoke bomb that was thrown into the blog and blinding people or what. However I see some very nice convection firing and a circulation getting going.


I second that!
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if you look at the visible image from 93L you will see the LLC and lots of convection to its east and NE trying to move over the center, i assume the NHC is waiting to see convection wrap around the center and have all the convection uniformed to the LLC thats my thought
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Quoting IKE:
No LLC at all w/93L....




No Upper Level Divergence either....



I would say little not none divergence.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
Buoy in sw Caribbean dropping quickly now 29.74
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Quoting 69Viking:


Are you going to guarantee it stays a 40-50 mph storm after it enters the warm waters of the GOM? This has the potential to be terrible in regards to the oil spill. If not this one then the next one. The fact most storms turn NE eventually after they enter the GOM puts Florida at a huge risk this year for getting slammed by the oil so no when I think of a storm going West of the Oil Spill I don't get a good feeling and won't for the rest of the hurricane season! At this point with no closed LLC it's almost impossible to tell where this storm will eventually go!
No... but it's hard to get swells into the west coast of Florida. You have to have a long tracking, strong hurricane to really kick it up. Thank the large continental shelf extending 150 miles into the gulf
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93L is now pulling in the deep convection to the SW of Jamaica at a fairly quick clip. That can be seen easily in this visible loop.

That said, it is perilously close to the NE coast of Honduras and in imminent danger of " running aground " there. It would be ironic if just as it finally got its act together it ran out of sea room.

If it is to survive and become a TD it will need to make a hard right turn very soon and in any event within the next 6 hours or so..
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1281. Drakoen
I see that convection continues to increase with 93L as the low is nearly stationary at this hour. Ascat pass suggests the system has a large circulation.

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30279
Quoting Hurricanes101:
93L was not expected to begin developing until today, so many seem to forget that
Why couldn't of it developed yesterday? Conditions today are almost the same as they were yesterday.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21157
Quoting MrstormX:


I recall Cindy had a nasty tornado outbreak accompanying it but could be wrong about that actually.
I personally don't recall that, but lots of downed trees and transformers blowing... which does sound like cannon fire.
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
I see the low level spin with 93L around 15/82 not far from Nicaragua/ Honduras border , but I think the NHC is actually watching the area of disturbed east of 93L for possible development , 93L will run into land by morning, I think the real player is SSE of Jamaica, just my personal opinion of course.
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I can't quite understand why so many people are writing off 93L. I don't know if it's a smoke bomb that was thrown into the blog and blinding people or what. However I see some very nice convection firing and a circulation getting going.
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"I recall Cindy had a nasty tornado outbreak accompanying it but could be wrong about that actually."

Tornado touched down 2 blocks from my house. Was not supposed to be bad - My son was actually at the movies when the worst of Cindy hit. Won't take TS lightly ever again!
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1274. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting ElConando:


So much energy yet nothing.

Question to all: is there about to be a big drop in NAO?
from nothing it comes
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53601
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't know why 93L has been having such a difficult time developing.


Very broad area of Low pressure that is turning only in the mid levels without much Convection to get an engine running in the lower levels. What has been missing is a strong sustained Blob of Storms failing to create a LLC!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Tomorrow will be the last day that I follow 93L if it doesnt show any signs of development. 5 days is a long time...

I'm pretty sick of following it now myself. I feel like it either needs to do something or just dissipate already, so we can go on to the next one...
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Even though models, maps, experts say conditions are there for it, it has the green light, fire/liftoff....there's stuff going on that we just dont know about that is holding that thing up. Conditions just weren't or aren't favorable for some unknown reason, even though we think they are.
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Quoting Floodman:


I agree, and I'm thinking they pretty much jumped the gun here...now, I may get up tomorrow and this thing is TS Alex, he's making a nice pass through the Yucatan Strait and the people in New Orleans are getting ready to bug out...that's a pretty long odds scenario though; that's why long odds bets are such sucker bets: they're highly unlikely to happen. They pay nice, but they don't come in very often.

That having been said, anyone that bets against a scenario occurring in trpoical weather runs the risk that Narture will dump her drink on them...again, just sayin'
Lol. Agreed.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21157
Quoting Floodman:


I agree, and I'm thinking they pretty much jumped the gun here...now, I may get up tomorrow and this thing is TS Alex, he's making a nice pass through the Yucatan Strait and the people in New Orleans are getting ready to bug out...that's a pretty long odds scenario though; that's why long odds bets are such sucker bets: they're highly unlikely to happen. They pay nice, but they don't come in very often.

That having been said, anyone that bets against a scenario occurring in trpoical weather runs the risk that Narture will dump her drink on them...again, just sayin'


It is about to enter the good stuff so you never know...
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
1267. IKE
No LLC at all w/93L....




No Upper Level Divergence either....

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Here comes the Ikster lol...you have an affect on the blog whenever you come in the blog goes through a diurnal Minimial where everyone starts to kill the system...then Drak, or Levi comes in and gives it life again
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please stop calling this a storm its not a storm
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93L was not expected to begin developing until today, so many seem to forget that
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't know why 93L has been having such a difficult time developing.
I dont know either but thats what i like about the tropics nothing rarely goes according to plan.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok. But there is a checklist that has to be followed when issuing a TCFA. Just because an anticyclone is placed directly aloft doesn't mean that it's an instant TCFA being issued.


I agree, and I'm thinking they pretty much jumped the gun here...now, I may get up tomorrow and this thing is TS Alex, he's making a nice pass through the Yucatan Strait and the people in New Orleans are getting ready to bug out...that's a pretty long odds scenario though; that's why long odds bets are such sucker bets: they're highly unlikely to happen. They pay nice, but they don't come in very often.

That having been said, anyone that bets against a scenario occurring in trpoical weather runs the risk that Narture will dump her drink on them...again, just sayin'
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Quoting RitaEvac:
40-50mph storm is not going to send massive swells to Florida, especially of its coming off the Yucatan


Are you going to guarantee it stays a 40-50 mph storm after it enters the warm waters of the GOM? This has the potential to be terrible in regards to the oil spill. If not this one then the next one. The fact most storms turn NE eventually after they enter the GOM puts Florida at a huge risk this year for getting slammed by the oil so no when I think of a storm going West of the Oil Spill I don't get a good feeling and won't for the rest of the hurricane season! At this point with no closed LLC it's almost impossible to tell where this storm will eventually go!
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Arg. I believe a lot of you do not understand the complications of an organized system in the gulf.

Scenario 1: A Tropical system moves West of Louisiana: it will bring storm surge and oil into New Orleans and areas east.

Scenario 2: The system hits near MS/AL: the storm moves counterclockwise, so it could push the oil into the Loop current, which could bring the oil around into FL and up around the east coast, although it would disperse the oil.

Also, Wilma's track was dependent upon a cold front moving into the region. Remember, she developed later in the season, as storm systems were pushing further south in transition from summer to fall. We are in a transition of just summer, so typically, it would be rare to see a front push that far south to steer a tropical cyclone into Florida.

That's my two or three cents. =)

PS: The GFS has had major issues in general during the past few days. Some times aren't showing any data the past few days. I am not going to rely my research on this model at the moment.
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1258. palmpt
YES
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we cant even end up with one system two is stretching it
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1256. palmpt
Quoting BradentonBrew:


Florida can't breathe easy. A tropical system to the west of the oil spill will have negative consequences for our beaches.


Potentially significant oil impact... this year is different. While we would ususally be watching hoping no major system develops, anything (Depression/Tropical Storm/Hurricane)from the mouth of the Mississippi to the west is not good for Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.
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Let the record show that I disagree!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Tomorrow will be the last day that I follow 93L if it doesnt show any signs of development. 5 days is a long time...



So much energy yet nothing.

Question to all: is there about to be a big drop in NAO?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Tomorrow will be the last day that I follow 93L if it doesnt show any signs of development. 5 days is a long time...

I don't know why 93L has been having such a difficult time developing.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21157

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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