93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

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The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting palmpt:


They'll visit tomorrow for sure...
If this convection dies, although unlikely, they'll probably cancel the mission yet again.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21372
i dont re called puting 50% in my poll
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Quoting Claudette1234:
CELIA ADT
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 JUN 2010 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 12:47:02 N Lon : 114:56:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 927.9mb/117.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.6 6.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +2.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION






that is just about perfect....so beautiful when they do this and stay out not bothering anybody...this kind of storm is what we need in the Atlantic this year...fishes and weak rain makers...
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1849. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
KOTG...Could you please post the site you get the loops from? I know it's PSU, but I can't find the link.
there make your own imagest you have to enter lat long time image type there is no link there generated maps made by selection and entering of information
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59632
1848. eddye
join me in tropics chat
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Probably 50-70% on the next TWO.
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Lake Charles

LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMRROW AS THE WAVE THAT BROUGHT MUCH OF TODAY`S ACTIVITY
MOVES OFF TO THE WEST. DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE FORECAST FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
MORE TYPICAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
LOOKING FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTER HALF OF THE US BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A
FEW MODELS INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MAKING IT TO THE COAST BY
MIDWEEK BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE RANGE OF THE FORECAST
IT SEEMS HIGHLY DOUBTFUL AT THIS TIME.
AND WHILE WE`RE ON THE SUBJECT OF HIGHLY DOUBTFUL FORECASTS THE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE CARRIBEAN CONTINUES TO SHOW
LITTLE SIGN OF ORGANIZATION AND MODELS REMAIN HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON
BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM AS
NHC FORECASTS CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMEN.

Houston

UPPER TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN QUICKLY EAST MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. POSES ISSUES WITH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE/MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
HAVE TENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE SW GULF AND THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS AND EXT NERN MEXICO. SO EXPECT WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THEN CONFIDENCE DROPS
QUICKLY AND HAVE GONE WITH OR BELOW MEX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT OR CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY
AND BEYOND. DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT THAT GFS IF PROGGING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY NEXT WEEK TO MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH UNLESS TROPICAL SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND STAYS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK.

RADAR SHOWING A GOOD SWATH OF MUCH NEEDED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO LIVINGSTON LINE. IN WALKER
COUNTY A FEW AREAS SHOWING 3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

45
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting Drakoen:
93L continues to deepen...
Indeed.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21372
Quoting Seflhurricane:
in another note first time in a while no Sea breeze thunderstorms in south florida today very very weird


No sea breeze in Naples today....Still blowing N.E.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 788
Quoting Tazmanian:
for sure will see red at the next two


new poll


how far up the red will the NHC put the %


A 60%

B 70%

C 80%

D 90%
50-60% gotta' guess.
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Quoting Drakoen:
93L continues to deepen...



not good
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1841. Grothar
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I believe that you have to use the "capture" feature to post from those storm windows. That is what you are doing, correct?


If I knew what I was doing, don't you think I would have posted the image? LOL
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1840. Patrap
Quoting IKE:
GFS vol.2 at 114 hours....



Looks Like Lili 2002 Ike..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134828
1839. palmpt
Quoting Tazmanian:
where the HH when you need them


They'll visit tomorrow for sure...
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Quoting Drakoen:
93L continues to deepen...
93L continues to improve with every image whats your thoughts
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1837. xcool
Drakoen .hey
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for sure will see red at the next two


new poll


how far up the red will the NHC put the %


A 60%

B 70%

C 80%

D 90%
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Kimberlain = Orange
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Quoting Tazmanian:



this is not good by 5am in the AM if this keeps going we may have a TD or TS
We need further consolidation of one closed surface low before we can get to TD status. Everything else seems to be doing well.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21372
1833. xcool
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1832. Drakoen
93L continues to deepen...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31908
Quoting kuppenskup:


Yeah right, that's why your on here with everyone else including myself tracking storms. Face it, there's part of you that's intrigued by Storms and wanting to go through a Hurricane and experience it is in our blood. Im Not saying we enjoy the damage, death, injuries and castastrophe that comes along with it, nobody in their right minds wants that but quit trying to judge other people and take a look inside. This is why
your on here with us.


Totally wrong in your assumption - I am on her to see what prevailing weather sstems threaten the precious islands that I live on - out of Hurricane Season and I am not here - no prevailing thereat and I am not here
Quoting kuppenskup:


Yeah right, that's why your on here with everyone else including myself tracking storms. Face it, there's part of you that's intrigued by Storms and wanting to go through a Hurricane and experience it is in our blood. Im Not saying we enjoy the damage, death, injuries and castastrophe that comes along with it, nobody in their right minds wants that but quit trying to judge other people and take a look inside. This is why
your on here with us.


U are so wrong in your assumption - I am here at this time because there is a system that has been a potential threat to the islands I live on - storms do not intrigue me at all - out of Hurricane Season I am not on this site/no prevailing threat I am not on tis site and- perhaps if u had taken the time to track the thread u would have read that someone actually "wished" to go through a Hurricane - so what do u want me to take a "look inside"
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1830. IKE
Quoting Seflhurricane:
in another note first time in a while no Sea breeze thunderstorms in south florida today very very weird


No sea-breeze here either. I'm 30 miles inland...Florida panhandle...unusual......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37890
Quoting Seflhurricane:
lets do a poll at the 8pm TWO WHat will the color be.

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) red

I vote Orange 50%


orange 40%
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 788
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


He's Exploding!
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in another note first time in a while no Sea breeze thunderstorms in south florida today very very weird
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1826. IKE
GFS vol.2 at 114 hours....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37890
1825. xcool
Tazmanian.hey.wow 1006mb
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We might reach the higher end of 1005mb before the diurnal variations kick in.



this is not good by 5am in the AM if this keeps going we may have a TD or TS
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Quoting will45:
Sorry MrstormX: i didnt see the# 3 remark in your post


No problem man
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KOTG...Could you please post the site you get the loops from? I know it's PSU, but I can't find the link.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 12059
Quoting hurricane556:
Buoy 42057 is down to 1006.7 mb
We might reach the higher end of 1005mb before the diurnal variations kick in.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21372
Quoting weatherwatcher12:


Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities
3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours
5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance
5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt
2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt
3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt
4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours
3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours
4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb
3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less
4 points

500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough
2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system
4 points
200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance
-4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance
4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance
3 points

Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher
3 points

Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours
3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours
4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours
5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA)
3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies
5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies
-2 points

Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is at least 5 degrees latitude away from the equator
3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource
3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other
2 points
and the grand prize is a possible tropical depression
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Quoting xcool:
hey all



hi Xcool 93L is makeing up for all the rips we gave it look be low

Buoy 42057 is down to 1006.7 mb
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1818. will45
Sorry MrstormX: i didnt see the# 3 remark in your post
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FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Interesting where they expect it might be tomorrow..
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1816. 1965
Quoting Abacosurf:


I stayed on Great Guana Cay in Abaco Bahamaas for Floyd. over 10 hours of 150MPH winds. 24 hours of wind over 120 MPH. Eye passage for 2 hours. Supposed gust to 221MPH on Green Turle Cay. (Prolly a tornado)

Only 42 people out of 150 stayed on the island.


Wow, that had to be one heck of a ride.
I've been through a couple of bad ones in SE Louisiana. Betsy and Camille being the worst. (Moved away before Katrina, thank the Lord.) Chased Hugo in Monks Corner SC. Quick hitter, but potent.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


we actually do have one now it appears


Where is it?
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:


Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities
3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours
5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance
5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt
2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt
3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt
4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours
3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours
4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb
3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less
4 points

500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough
2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system
4 points
200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance
-4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance
4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance
3 points

Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher
3 points

Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours
3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours
4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours
5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA)
3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies
5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies
-2 points

Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is at least 5 degrees latitude away from the equator
3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource
3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other
2 points


We have a winner...
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1813. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59632
Quoting Floodman:


I'm just saying that it's two different agencies with their own rules...who knows why the Navy does what it does? If you like, you can research the requirements for the Navy issuing a TCFA and let us know...LOL


Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities
3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours
5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance
5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt
2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt
3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt
4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours
3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours
4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb
3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less
4 points

500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough
2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system
4 points
200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance
-4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance
4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance
3 points

Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher
3 points

Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours
3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours
4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours
5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA)
3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies
5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies
-2 points

Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is at least 5 degrees latitude away from the equator
3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource
3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other
2 points
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1811. xcool
hey all
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Definitely something going on with 93L. This is the longest burst of thunderstorm activity I've seen yet. And it's intense too, very cold cloud tops. It has an extremely broad circulation. Looks like it's starting to run out of ocean though.
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lets do a poll at the 8pm TWO WHat will the color be.

A) Yellow
B) Orange
C) red

I vote Orange 50%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dont forget guys, were still only in June. Dont be surprised to see 3-4 systems at one time come Aug.
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CELIA ADT
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 JUN 2010 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 12:47:02 N Lon : 114:56:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 927.9mb/117.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.6 6.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +2.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION




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1806. will45
Quoting MrstormX:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 23 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 24/1330Z
D. 16.5N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z AND 24/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/0930Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

em>


REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z AND 24/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/0930Z.
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Quoting hurricane556:
Buoy 42057 is down to 1006.7 mb




un oh
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where the HH when you need them
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1803. ATL
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
It seems the LLC has slipped under the extremely deep convection. Im surprised.


Surprised that 93L's getting it's act together while under very favorable conditions? About time if you ask me. Also the fact that this is occurring at D MIN means that 93L isn't tied to diurnal cycles like some disturbances, another plus in its favor.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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