93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

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The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Last couple frames you can see the low level clouds start to get pulled into the T-Storm complex to the east of the Nakkie LLC.

RGB
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
I mentioned earlier today that I thought 93 would just continue west towards land and become a memory. One responce was, at least at the time there was no model to support that thought. Well, I still think that is possible. Seems to be drift if at all west, do really see anything to pick it up. But of course that's my oppinion. We will see I guess
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Kman-

I, for one, enjoy your input! It's usually pretty conservative/straight to the point. I'm going to have to disagree with you about the center though. To me, it is still stalled like it has been for a few hours now. Maybe a slight drift here or there, but certainly not the 10kt movement from earlier.


It may be stalled or moving very slowly, notice I never said anything about speed except that any continued motion to the WSW for another 6 hours or more would be very close to or on the coast.

But I still maintain it is SW of where it was earlier today and closer to the coast. We'll see soon enough. After all, it is not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, it is where it is now.

Of course, if the center relocates underneath the deep convection entirely that is not from the motion of the system itself but simply a relocation of the area of lowest pressure from one area to another .
Gotta run
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
looks at the latest satellite imagery,93L WOW
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting StormW:


???????
The center IS NOT moving NE.


thank god!!! where have you been....the misinformation in here this evening is sickening...
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1494
2098. Patrap
The swirl nearer the Coast of Nic is a Low Level swirl around 8oclock around the Mean center.

It seems to be swirling out the Newer Mean Center which is the going to Dominate now that the mo is aligning aloft and at the Surface..

Its a Large Circulation within the Basin Now
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting CapeObserver:


As a teacher I have to agree. Kids learn through interaction. Let's face it, even we adults like to use a new word if we learn one. Let's encourage, not discourage.
Interaction is not spewing illiterate garbage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think we may have a new 93L be come i sure do not see a spin at all with 93L i think that thing S of Honduras is the new spin



I agree.
The spin off of Honduras has weakened to nothing....perhaps being swallowed up by the rapidly intensifying convection to the NE.

That is probably why the pressure has been dropping at the 057 buoy which is 150 N.E of the supposed LLC of 93.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2095. xcool
looks at the latest satellite imagery,93L WOW
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
2094. Gorty
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

You have just gone against every thing the NHC has said


Sorry but, look at it. If the L on the wonder map is correct, there is not much convection wrapping around plus, a lot of it is close to Mexico.

If it changes direction or if forecasts to not develop till it is in the GOM like storm said, then I will greatly raise my percent chance of it developing.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
2093. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just logged in... has anyone seen Hurricane Celia lately? WOW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
kman doesnt know whats happening we have better coverage on what were looking at


wth are you saying?...id listen to kman before many on here...and if your looking at the same vis im looking at, get your eyes checked...the "naked" swirl is still moving wsw...toward the coast...the convection is just catching up a bit to the east...

wow, the nerve of some...
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1494
Evening guys.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Anyone think that this will form into a tropical depression tomorrow?I think it will.Pressure seems to be lowering around the CoC,not to mention very deep convection is also developing around it,to.It just needs some spin.

P.S. I'm new here,just a beginner,but do know quite abit.
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Eh, there's a lot of learning that can happen due to posting and having your post torn apart and rendered uneducated. It's what drove me into met school.


As a teacher I have to agree. Kids learn through interaction. Let's face it, even we adults like to use a new word if we learn one. Let's encourage, not discourage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Storm its okay. Sometimes you just have to let comments on the blog roll off like water from a duck's back.

Back later.


Kman-

I, for one, enjoy your input! It's usually pretty conservative/straight to the point. I'm going to have to disagree with you about the center though. To me, it is still stalled like it has been for a few hours now. Maybe a slight drift here or there, but certainly not the 10kt movement from earlier.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hunkerdown:
I am telling you there needs to be a minimum age limit set to post on here...and I don't mean 10.

Kids, you don't learn by posting uneducated comments every 30 seconds while changing your views 147 times a day and spewing fruitless facts. You learn by listening, reading, paying attention and asking questions.


Unfortunately….A lot of the ill-informed comments also come from adults.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11002
2083. Patrap
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i am sorry but the LLC is stalled and drifting i just zoomed into it and it is not moving west its stalled


The overall big circ seems to have gathered some momentum and its relaxing along the Mean Wnw Track

Thats a good obs in my book,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Now that's more like it.

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2081. amd
looks like the low level center is getting stretched like a rubber band, and being absorbed into the thunderstorm complex east of the nicaragua/honduras border.

Regardless, if it doesn't gain some latitude soon, there is a central America landfall in its near future.

Also, I agree with those who think the GFS is out to lunch with its trough. A front passing through SE TX during a developing la nina at the very end of june would be unprecedented. Therefore, I would expect a w/wnw movement to continue through the life of this system.

IMHO, the system finally begins to organize late tonight into tomorrow, and on saturday, we have tropical storm Alex somewhere off the coast of the Yucatan. (Coincidentally, if this happens, I would win the Ossgss 1st storm contest)

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2080. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
2079. hydrus
Quoting kmanislander:


If you say so
And i thought I was the speck of dust in a Godless void...lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Letsa take a gander at the Viz and c wassup..

Floater - Visible Loop


Thanks got the LL on that one. Somewhere between 16/17N and 84w. Just what I see. ;)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting Gorty:
I think it is safe to say we can forget about 93l. Unless it changes direction very soon. I give it a 10% chance of developing into a TD during the next 48 hours.

Well eastern pacific, get ready to have your e storm.

You have just gone against every thing the NHC has said
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Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
i am sorry but the LLC is stalled and drifting i just zoomed into it and it is not moving west its stalled
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
Quoting StormW:


I know you didn't, I just need to post quickly tonight, and I believe you mentioned kman didn't know what was happening.


Are you gonna be back by 9pm eastern time? Cause if not I'll just wait til tmrw to post here again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


I know you didn't, I just need to post quickly tonight, and I believe you mentioned kman didn't know what was happening.


Storm its okay. Sometimes you just have to let comments on the blog roll off like water from a duck's back.

Back later.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Eh, there's a lot of learning that can happen due to posting and having your post torn apart and rendered uneducated. It's what drove me into met school.
sorry, wont get very far in life learning that way.
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2070. Gorty
I think it is safe to say we can forget about 93l. Unless it changes direction very soon. I give it a 10% chance of developing into a TD during the next 48 hours.

Well eastern pacific, get ready to have your e storm.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
The Caribbean looks like a convection mess of mass proportions!
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Quoting kmanislander:


NE ???. Sorry but I don't see that. The convection is being drawn in from the NE.


yea, agreed...the only direction that naked swirly is moving is just south of west...gonna be close to the coast in a few hours...
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1494
2066. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting kmanislander:
I'm going to hit the gym before we get into one of those " which direction is it heading in debates ". The new coordinates will sort that out soon enough.

Back later.


Yeah Im gonna head out myself. I gotta get to the pool before they close at 8. Just thought I'd share that with you.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
I am telling you there needs to be a minimum age limit set to post on here...and I don't mean 10.

Kids, you don't learn by posting uneducated comments every 30 seconds while changing your views 147 times a day and spewing fruitless facts. You learn by listening, reading, paying attention and asking questions.
Eh, there's a lot of learning that can happen due to posting and having your post torn apart and rendered uneducated. It's what drove me into met school.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
The center appears to be moving almost due west. There is no north-eastward movement. The deep convection is being pulled towards the center...the center is not moving towards the convection. Look closely at it.
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Got it Grothar...Thanks...But I hate the missing frames!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11002
2060. Patrap
Letsa take a gander at the Viz and c wassup..

Floater - Visible Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Looks to me like the center is just north of the coast. Could get the long/lat on that view.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
I'm going to hit the gym before we get into one of those " which direction is it heading in debates ". The new coordinates will sort that out soon enough.

Back later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can we just name SOMETHING Alex the Great and be DONE with it already? This name is pestering the daylights out of everyone, it appears. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am telling you there needs to be a minimum age limit set to post on here...and I don't mean 10.

Kids, you don't learn by posting uneducated comments every 30 seconds while changing your views 147 times a day and spewing fruitless facts. You learn by listening, reading, paying attention and asking questions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm-

While I don't believe the center is moving NE, I do have a pretty good feeling that it has been sucked under the convection. Still on the western edge, though. In my opinion, the center is just drifting at the present time. Check out this NASA satellite..

Link
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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