93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

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The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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4153. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Enforcer001:

you and tazmanian are both robots to be honest.


HurricaneSwirl...finally someone with more than 5 brain cells...thanks for the support and i wish you the best of luck...the consensus is 11th grade is the hardest year by far... but i hear 10th grade is slightly easier than 9th.

as for the rest of the blog...i simply cannot believe that people can be so touchy...so many people get their panties in wads and jump to conclusions based on impulse...just proves their immaturity...like my mother who needs psychiatric help, immature and touchy...
but yer just a goof and thats a go
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well all4hurricanes I thinking more of TS/HU ALEX and STS/TS BONNIE
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11650
Quoting CaneWarning:


It seems most of the mets in Tampa agree with that track. Once again on the morning news they stated that Tampa shouldn't worry at all about 93L.
You should definitely watch it, but shouldn't be "concerned" about it at this point in time. Once it gets into the BOC or GOMEX we will have a much better handle on where it may go.
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4150. Patrap
NOAA 41 is the Oil Flight outta McDill

Teal 70 is the Tasked HH Flight outta Biloxi.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
if this would and i am certainly not claiming it will, become a hurricane in the Caribbean.....then very North this would come and Mississippi to Florida is a player for sure!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Multiple -80C cloud tops can be noted. Also 93L looks to be moving towards the NW/NNW very slowly now.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Through the Yucatan as a TS, stays a TS while over the Yucatan, then goes into the BOC, makes landfall in Mexico as a strong TS.

Based on 00z ECMWF.


It seems most of the mets in Tampa agree with that track. Once again on the morning news they stated that Tampa shouldn't worry at all about 93L.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
93L:

Tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea has become better organized overnight with the formation of a 1005mb surface low off the NE coast of Honduras. Convection has been increasing near and to the east of this surface center and overall the system appears to be slowly organizing.

Track:

Various solutions continue to play out in the guidance as is common when a well defined closed surface center is not present. CMC, EURO, NOGAPS, and GFS all indicate a system heading for Texas or Mexico, while the GFDL and HWRF show the system strongly recurving over the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida. Feel the GFDL and HWRF and too far east and too deep with the Midwest trough%u2026not to mention they have the system moving NW starting right now which is not the case. EURO has been fairly consistent in taking a tropical storm toward S TX and the CMC (well it is up to its usual mischief of a strong storm heading for S TX and N MX). GFS and NOGAPS bring a weak and disorganized system toward the western Gulf coast. Coordinate HPC/NHC tracks bring a closed surface low into the western Gulf of Mexico by next Tuesday. We no reason as to not split the difference in the guidance with more weight toward the southern and western tracks and less toward the GFDL and HWRF suggesting a potential threat from Louisiana westward to Mexico.

Intensity:

With the exception of the robust CMC, all other guidance keeps the system weak or as a tropical storm. The current likely track suggest a impact on the Yucatan over the weekend which will result in weakening and disorganization. Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico appears favorable for intensification as water temperatures are warm and upper level winds light. Looks good for a tropical storm at some point and this falls in line with most guidance keeping the system weak, but large over the western Gulf.

Impacts:

Would likely need to start ramping things up in the seas and wind department, but without a defined system of yet, nor any official track from NHC%u2026will wait. All guidance suggest impacts are still at or just beyond 5 days out (Tuesday of next week). Could probably bring seas up over the outer waters starting Monday and spreading them toward the coast on Tuesday, but will hold off on suggesting TS force conditions just yet. Incoming weak front will also be sliding southward early next week and this feature combined with a potential incoming tropical system spells lots of rainfall along the entire TX coast.

Residents are urged to keep updated on the weather over the weekend and be prepared to take any necessary actions by early next week to prepare for the landfall of a tropical system.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
I think we have Alex and Bonnie on our way
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


That is yesterday and you also highlighted the section of when it will be in the storm. Look 3 or 4 lines up and that is the launch time.
My bad, picked the wrong date. But I don't think it is important when it launches but rather when it is inside the system. Regardless, launch is at 1430 UTC today.
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4140. BFG308
Quoting JamesSA:

I think we might find out. I can't believe how many I've had to add already this year and we haven't even has a named Atlantic storm yet.

Where do these people come from, and what kind of a life do they have if the only thing they can think of to do is stir up trouble on a WEATHER BLOG of all places?


*Leaves Lurker Mode*

Because we're logical people and people saying irrational things and being ridiculous in our discussion is bothersome. Trolls get off on that.

Any attention is good attention when you are a losar IRL.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Pretty much dead on. Now the question is, what track does the ECMWF take it?
Through the Yucatan as a TS, stays a TS while over the Yucatan, then goes into the BOC, makes landfall in Mexico as a strong TS.

Based on 00z ECMWF.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 23 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 24/1330Z
D. 16.5N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z AND 24/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/0930Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP



That is yesterday and you also highlighted the section of when it will be in the storm. Look 3 or 4 lines up and that is the launch time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 241445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT THU 24 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-024

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 25/1430Z
D. 17.5N 83.0W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 26/0200Z
D. 18.0N 84.5W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 26/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 24/1800Z AND 25/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 24/1135Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
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4136. 7544
94l soon the blob behind 93l ?looks good
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4135. Patrap
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
look like recon has started

Decoded recon data in the last 30 minutes:

Non-Tasked Mission Data (for at least one product)
Updated on our site 2 minutes ago


Thats the NOAA Plane on the Oil Invest today...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Yes and no. We're leaving on 7/1 for St. Augustine then on 7/3 to Savannah for a few days. I hope Alex doesn't throw a big dilemma my way or a beating to the Gulf Coast!


I love St. Augustine.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 23 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 24/1330Z
D. 16.5N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z AND 24/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/0930Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP



that was wednesdays', not the latest one
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Wow! You think it'll track that far east instead of going over the Yucatan Peninsula? Similar path to Charley?




yea,but not quite as far east as charley,but simular,if 93L develops quickly and is a hurricane(not saying its going to be)as it approaches the GOM it'll get pulled poleward,I'm thinking it might go right up the channel,also note that 93L's LLC appears to be a bit further ENE offshore,about 150 miles from the coast IMO...
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just a note! HH for 93L will go out in about 1 hour according to our favorite weather channel.
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Quoting iluvjess:


Please post your source because NHC page says fly at 1430Z. Thanks.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 23 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 24/1330Z
D. 16.5N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z AND 24/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/0930Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
look like recon has started

Decoded recon data in the last 30 minutes:

Non-Tasked Mission Data (for at least one product)
Updated on our site 2 minutes ago
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11650
Quoting pensacolastorm:


GO TIGERS!
Clemson does a great deal of hurricane generated wind speed data collection and analysis in their engineering dept. They had numerous anemometers set up throughout the Pensacola area during Ivan.


boooo! Go Cocks!
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Sorry for getting off topic. Back to 93L!
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Think about it, if we do get TD 1 today, how dead on was the ECMWF?


Pretty much dead on. Now the question is, what track does the ECMWF take it?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
4124. hercj
Quoting StormW:
Here ya go!

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 9:50 A.M. JUNE 25, 2010

That is as good as its going to get for the next few hours anyway. Great job Senior Chief.
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Good day Storm!
Thanks for the Synopsis
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Quoting stillwaiting:
whats up junky????,ready for a possible chase next week???


Yes and no. We're leaving on 7/1 for St. Augustine then on 7/3 to Savannah for a few days. I hope Alex doesn't throw a big dilemma my way or a beating to the Gulf Coast!
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4121. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
















Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues

Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit


NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Quoting StormW:
Here ya go!

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 9:50 A.M. JUNE 25, 2010


Good info.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Wow, I am soooooooooooo impressed. LOL


Those are some easy classes.. I had to deal with actual AP classes this year as a freshmen. My pet peeve was my one B in AP US Government and Politics. My AP exam in that course was.. iffy. Still waiting on those results.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
4118. JamesSA
I see our monster 93L is still grinding away, trying to become a storm. ;-)
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4117. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Enforcer001 YOUR ABOUT TO BE REPLACED WITH EMPTY SPACE JUST LIKE WHATS IN YOUR HEAD
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Think about it, if we do get TD 1 today, how dead on was the ECMWF?
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

YOu are def correct but your math is off. It is only 1350Z...still got 40 minutes or so.


Oops. Sorry, still working on the first cup of Jo. Thanks
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Quoting StormW:
Here ya go!

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 9:50 A.M. JUNE 25, 2010


great job as always StormW
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4113. JamesSA
Quoting SavannahStorm:
Here's a topical question:

Is there a limit to the number of names you can have on your "POOF" list? lol

I think we might find out. I can't believe how many I've had to add already this year and we haven't even has a named Atlantic storm yet.

Where do these people come from, and what kind of a life do they have if the only thing they can think of to do is stir up trouble on a WEATHER BLOG of all places?
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4093. StormW 9:49 AM EDT on June 25, 2010

Also, one Met question for Storm. Is the ITCZ basically synonimous with the sub-equatorial ridge in the Summer, or, is a persistent ridge than always maintains a narrow "layer" between the ITCZ and the TUTT?...Thank you Captain.
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Quoting iluvjess:


Please post your source because NHC page says fly at 1430Z. Thanks.

YOu are def correct but your math is off. It is only 1350Z...still got 40 minutes or so.
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*NEW* Graphics Update
5am EDT Update




*NEW* Graphics Update
5am EDT Update


**Sorry for the typo of "Acapulco"**
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4108. Patrap
Just took Jr to BAnd Camp at Loyola University Uptown NOLA and the Crude odor here is the worst Ive smelled yet.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Quoting StormW:
Here ya go!

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 9:50 A.M. JUNE 25, 2010


Thanks for the update, Chief!
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Quoting Enforcer001:

look who's talking...a middle schooler...yes, i know high school sucks...there's a lot of thugs, lot of drugs...lots of immaturity. everyone has to have a ****ing boyfriend or girlfriend at this age. i'm perfectly fine with being single at the moment until at least 11th grade because i know i will find somebody between then and the first 2 years of college...i have my life planned out...unlike 93L...and unlike you kids...


It's really not all that hard.. I just finished my freshmen year and it's not all that it's made out to be.. Just find the right friends, stay away from all the drugs, and study more than once a month and you're set to go... Probably gets tougher down the road, but idk yet.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting Enforcer001:
http://www.nisd.net/parentconnection/

username: deathmalice21
password: goodgreat

see for yourself. the class rank doesn't show up... but the grades are there.


Wow, I am soooooooooooo impressed. LOL
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
4104. ssmate
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Got a feeling this is the last time we'll ever see Enforcer.
It was a good run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No, it was scheduled to fly at 1700 UTC to 2100 UTC.


Please post your source because NHC page says fly at 1430Z. Thanks.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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