93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

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The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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2453. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


752

WHXX01 KWBC 250019

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0019 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100625 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100625 0000 100625 1200 100626 0000 100626 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.0N 81.6W 16.4N 83.2W 17.0N 84.5W 18.2N 86.1W

BAMD 16.0N 81.6W 15.9N 83.2W 15.9N 84.9W 16.0N 86.8W

BAMM 16.0N 81.6W 16.2N 83.2W 16.7N 84.6W 17.3N 86.2W

LBAR 16.0N 81.6W 16.1N 83.6W 16.8N 85.9W 17.6N 88.3W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100627 0000 100628 0000 100629 0000 100630 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 19.4N 87.5W 22.1N 90.2W 24.4N 92.3W 25.7N 94.4W

BAMD 16.3N 88.7W 16.9N 91.8W 17.2N 94.5W 17.3N 98.1W

BAMM 18.0N 87.8W 19.9N 90.4W 21.4N 92.6W 22.4N 95.1W

LBAR 18.7N 90.5W 21.2N 94.1W 24.1N 96.1W 26.8N 97.8W

SHIP 54KTS 70KTS 75KTS 77KTS

DSHP 54KTS 30KTS 38KTS 40KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 81.6W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 = 8KT

LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 78.2W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2452. amd

Quoting CybrTeddy:
imo 93L reminds me of Hurricane Dolly and Hurricane Cindy.


I wouldn't be at all surprised if the final landfall for 93L/Alex(?) is very near where Hurricane Dolly made landfall.
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EP, 04, 2010062500, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1154W, 135, 932, HU
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Hey everyone-
Quick question-

Where is the COC located at? This system looks like it is tracking to the SW at the moment. It also looks like it is picking up speed. Any help would be great!
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2448. Patrap
For reference..note the Initial Points and how they change as to the input thru time.

Just for those who dont know...or care to.

They just dont use a dart board as some like to chant.

..or the oft heard,

"Theres no Coc"..or yada,yada yada.

If its a spinning at some level.

It takes the mean.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130489
2447. emguy
The models may still be a little to fast with 93L as she moves through the Caribbean. Just my opinion based on Dr. Masters comments and the model plots. Just seems a bit to fast for the first 48 hours.
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2446. Patrap

00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)








Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130489
Hi WUBloggers. Hope everyone is doing well this evening.

Quite the scene out there tonight in the Caribbean.
Loop
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2444. ssmate
Quoting CybrTeddy:
imo 93L reminds me of Hurricane Dolly and Hurricane Cindy.
I agree, unfortunately.
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Hopefully Alex(?) doesn't amount to much. No one needs this thing, especially those along the nothern gulf coast.
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2442. Drakoen
Quoting futuremet:


Sea level pressure is relative to its surroundings. 1006mb is not really a significant pressure gradient if the surrounding pressures are about 1008mb.


No, sea level pressure being below normal is an area that is already below normal is fine. That is good for overall development. Also not sure where you are getting surrounding pressures of 1008mb when I see 1010mb+ around Jamaica
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31113
Ok question any chance this thing may affect south florida in any way
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this think if we ended june with two cat 5 out there
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115511
Quoting Tazmanian:




has there evere been a cat 5 in june befor


I think one in the EPAC, Ava in 1973
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting laflastormtracker:


Flooding was severe in Houston, lots of folks stranded. I have family there and stories are endless. But look at the map and the amount of people affected. Houston nearly to Dallas, all across S Louisiana, New Orleans, Mobile, and up to The Carolinas. Flooding occurred many places.

We live on the NE of Houston, close to IAH. We were recording up to 4" and hour at the worst of the rainfall!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
OMG I DONT THINK THIS WAS FORCAST BY ANY MODE RUNS AT ALL


25/0000 UTC 13.0N 115.4W T7.0/7.0 CELIA -- East Pacific






has there evere been a cat 5 in june befor
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115511
imo 93L reminds me of Hurricane Dolly and Hurricane Cindy.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
OMG I DONT THINK THIS WAS FORCAST BY ANY MODE RUNS AT ALL


25/0000 UTC 13.0N 115.4W T7.0/7.0 CELIA -- East Pacific


That usually suggests winds of 140 knots. Meaning Celia looks like a Category 5.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1006 mb by rule of thumb= T.S. This is showing up well in the Dvorak technique!! Doubt that front can save our butts. We've 95-99 degrees and heat indicies of 103-107 for weeks.
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2395 JSA: YES. Some Engineer coworkers of mine were looking at that earlier. We couldn't tell if it was coming out of the top vents more, but the flow from around underneath the 'skirt' has certainly slacked way down. Perhaps they got a better seal when the re-installed it? I dunno, I haven't heard anything official.

Bar's open people! It's WunderGround Blog Happy /Hour. Tonight's special is 2-for-1 on pitchers of Margaritas with complementary chips and Salsa.
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2432. Gorty
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Could be a cat 5. at 8 PM.


The weather is so backwords right now. With a La Nina coming on and the MJO does not currently favor development in the E. Pac but it does favor it in the Carribean, the E.Pac had no troble spinning up cyclones.
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My question is, what is sending 93L south?
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What I found out was that they changed the Lat and Longs from what they were before check it out I have been keeping the history so see if you guys can macth it up to what they had before

AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 12.0N 64.3W 15, 1011, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 12.7N 65.4W 20, 1011, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 13.4N 66.5W 20, 1011, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 14.0N 67.6W 20, 1011, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 14.5N 68.8W 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062200, , BEST, 0, 14.9N 70.0W 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062206, , BEST, 0, 15.0N 71.2W 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062212, , BEST, 0, 15.3N 72.3W 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062218, , BEST, 0, 15.5N 74.4W 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062300, , BEST, 0, 15.6N 75.2W 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062306, , BEST, 0, 15.6N 76.0W 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062312, , BEST, 0, 15.6N 76.6W 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062318, , BEST, 0, 16.6N 78.6W 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062400, , BEST, 0, 17.0N 79.5W 25, 1009, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062406, , BEST, 0, 16.6N 80.4W 25, 1009, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062412, , BEST, 0, 16.5N 79.6W 25, 1008, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062418, , BEST, 0, 16.5N 81.5W 25, 1008, WV,

new one

AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 120N, 643W, 15, 1011, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 127N, 654W, 20, 1011, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 134N, 665W, 20, 1011, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 140N, 676W, 20, 1011, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 688W, 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062200, , BEST, 0, 149N, 700W, 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062206, , BEST, 0, 151N, 715W, 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062212, , BEST, 0, 153N, 729W, 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062218, , BEST, 0, 154N, 740W, 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062300, , BEST, 0, 156N, 752W, 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062306, , BEST, 0, 157N, 763W, 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062312, , BEST, 0, 159N, 768W, 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062318, , BEST, 0, 161N, 777W, 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062400, , BEST, 0, 162N, 782W, 25, 1009, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062406, , BEST, 0, 164N, 793W, 25, 1009, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062412, , BEST, 0, 163N, 803W, 25, 1008, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062418, , BEST, 0, 162N, 810W, 25, 1008, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 816W, 25, 1006, LO,


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OMG I DONT THINK THIS WAS FORCAST BY ANY MODE RUNS AT ALL


25/0000 UTC 13.0N 115.4W T7.0/7.0 CELIA -- East Pacific


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115511
Quoting futuremet:


Sea level pressure is relative to its surroundings. 1006mb is not really a significant pressure gradient if the surrounding pressures are about 1008mb.
Plus, nothing suggests that there is a consolidated area of low pressure. Maybe we can get a good WindSAT or ASCAT pass tonight.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Could be a cat 5. at 8 PM.


it looks like a cat 5
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Quoting Inactivity:


If that is true,then time over land could be reduced to only 12 hours,the Yucatan isn't mountainous and seems moist at the moment,so 18-12 hours of land interaction isn't going to do much.


Anyone agree with this,or atleast think it will take a more NW-NNW motion?

P.S.Read post 2255 first,that is the quote that I responded to.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Wow Celia up to 7.0 guys
Could be a Category 5 at 11 PM.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2424. cg2916
Quoting ryang:
NHC might wait until RECON goes in before upgrading. JMO


I think they will, they need a recon for this.


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2423. amd
Quoting ryang:
NHC might wait until RECON goes in before upgrading. JMO


Unless tropical depression (30-39 mph) or tropical storm force winds are observed on land, or on buoy 42057, they will not upgrade until Recon shows up.

There have not been many times where a storm is upgraded from a wave to a depression or storm within recon's range until there is confirmation from aircraft.
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2422. scott39
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


A possible trough, strengthening system naturally pulled poleward by the Coriolis effect.
thanks, It looks like if 93L doesnt start to develope quickly its going to run right into land!
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Quoting Twinkster:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Huricane_Wilma.ogg


93L remind anyone of wilma?


no... just stop now
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Quoting Twinkster:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Huricane_Wilma.ogg


93L remind anyone of wilma?


Cindy
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Quoting TampaSpin:
We already got a pressure of 1006mb......heck a TS is 1000mb......TD by 5am


Sea level pressure is relative to its surroundings. 1006mb is not really a significant pressure gradient if the surrounding pressures are about 1008mb. Nevertheless, 93L is organizing quickly. I will not be surprised if it becomes a tropical depression at 18z tomorrow.
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2418. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting cg2916:


When is DMIN and DMAX for this system?


DMIN 4PM to 9PM DMAX 4AM to 9AM (approx.)
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Huricane_Wilma.ogg


93L remind anyone of wilma?
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Wow Celia up to 7.0 guys
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting cg2916:


When is DMIN and DMAX for this system?
Doubt it is because of the diurnal minimum. Post 2408 basically explains it.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting TampaSpin:
We already got a pressure of 1006mb......heck a TS is 1000mb......TD by 5am
But there is no proof of a closed consolidated area of low pressure. Although the pressure qualifies as a tropical depression, the circulation does not.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting scott39:
Whats going to pull 93L more N?


A possible trough, strengthening system naturally pulled poleward by the Coriolis effect.
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2411. Gorty
Look at the Accuweather IR, it looks like it is going SW. Will it make a circle?
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2409. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Convection beginning to wane.



When is DMIN and DMAX for this system?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Convection beginning to wane.

You can expect convection in a developing system to wax and wane some as the atmosphere cycles between stable and unstable.
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Information About Low (Invest 93L)

Storm information valid as of: Friday, June 25, 2010 0:00 Z
Coordinates: 16.0N 81.6W
Location: 229 miles (369 km) to the S (184°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR)
Pressure (MSLP): 1006 mb (29.71 inHg | 1006 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 25 knots (29 mph | 13 m/s)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2406. jpsb
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No way. I have yet to see a consolidated closed low. But I do think we will see our first TD within 24 hours.
Bad news considering how big 93L is, hope it does not come to Texas.
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We already got a pressure of 1006mb......heck a TS is 1000mb......TD by 5am
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Convection beginning to wane.



its basically maximum DMIN right now, let it build toward DMAX
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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