93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

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The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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3103. hydrus
Quoting Mclem1:
I think 93L has a good chance of at LEAST being our first TD if not Alex. I'm also interested in the cloud cover behind it that spreads south of the Dominican. Does anyone think that could form further or will it be wrapped into 93L? On a side note those looking to get a good look at a nice TC, take a visit over to the Pacific. Celia is beautiful. One of those storms you just sit there and remember why you love tracking these things. Mother nature at her finest.
I believe the low south of Hispaniola will become the dominant low in a day or two. The other may weaken, move ashore or meander for a while. If my low does not win out. I will eat deep fried crows.
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Quoting txsweetpea:
Texas Hurricane,
I really jsut dont have a good feeling about 93 L. I dont know how it is going to go so far north, am I am definitely not good at interpreting the models.


txsweetpea: It is most likely that wherever 93L hits it will not be a hurricane. I would say there is a 10% chance of it becoming a hurricane.
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Quoting JRRP:

the models are showing a WNW movement and then NW


Hopefully it stays away from Louisiana!
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3099. JRRP
Quoting 7544:


hi if that area does form as a invest will it go west too tia

the models are showing a WNW movement and then NW
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Quoting SwLAlawchick:
I'm in Westlake. Rita tore through here in an ugly way. Still pretty fresh in my mind. Since I am in law enforcement, even more so. I'm eyeballing the tropics every season since, lol.


I am in DeQuincy, my husband is in law enforcement also..he hates when a system threatens...lol..hopefully it doesn't...
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Purely my opinion but, here is your budding Depression.

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3096. Mclem1
I think 93L has a good chance of at LEAST being our first TD if not Alex. I'm also interested in the cloud cover behind it that spreads south of the Dominican. Does anyone think that could form further or will it be wrapped into 93L? On a side note those looking to get a good look at a nice TC, take a visit over to the Pacific. Celia is beautiful. One of those storms you just sit there and remember why you love tracking these things. Mother nature at her finest.
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Quoting txsweetpea:
Texas Hurricane,
I really jsut dont have a good feeling about 93 L. I dont know how it is going to go so far north, am I am definitely not good at interpreting the models.


Yeah, I have no idea of what it will do. Some models say this and some models say that. It does get frustrating....if it does form then hopefully we will get a better idea of what it will be and where it will go.
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3094. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Actually the LLC is stationary, what your seeing is convection spreading out towards CA.
Spreading out towards California?!?! There will be buku watches and warnings up for alotta peeps.
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New Iberia here. Rita wasn't good for us, either.
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Quoting Astrophysics:
It looks like the LLC associated with 93L is steadily moving towards shore (w to wsw at 8 mph) located around 15.5N and 83.0W. I just don't think this system will develop do to it moving inland. It looks no better organized then it did a few days ago. I don't think we will have anything develop until mid July or early August. I'm predicting we will have around 10 to 15 named storms this year despite record sst in the Atlantic.


Actually the LLC is stationary, what your seeing is convection spreading out towards CA.
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Texas Hurricane,
I really jsut dont have a good feeling about 93 L. I dont know how it is going to go so far north, am I am definitely not good at interpreting the models.
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I'm in Westlake. Rita tore through here in an ugly way. Still pretty fresh in my mind. Since I am in law enforcement, even more so. I'm eyeballing the tropics every season since, lol.
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3089. 7544
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats and area near 19n/50w


hi if that area does form as a invest will it go west too tia
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Do you think we have enough of us here to start a circle and put some mojo on this storm to keep it the heck away from us?
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Quoting setxjeff:
I'm in Nederland. you?


orange
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I have a feeling they will erase all comments on storms that have a big impact because people will be coming to the site after the fact to read up on what Dr. Masters had to say. I'm sure he doesn't want them coming and seeing some of the nonsense we all post. :)
Actually, all the blogs are archived. They're easily accessible by clicking on Dr. Masters name and scrolling down to where you see "PREVIOUS ENTRIES". 2005 of course is the most interesting year. The blog from AUG. 28 at 5:52PM is a good one. Just reading Dr. Masters opening comment and analysis sends chills up your spine. And there's all sorts of blog drama with colorful characters like STORMTOP. They make for interesting reading.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5605
I'm in Nederland. you?
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hi Gang
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3083. xcool
WE ALL DO
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3082. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting ElConando:
3051. Is the 93L?
thats and area near 19n/50w
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Good to see a bunch of Louisiana folks here. Hate to say it but I don't have a good feeling about this storm.
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Quoting txsweetpea:


Gets on my nerves too! I am a south east texas lurker.


so, what are your thoughts on 93L?
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The nekkid low center that was being tracked earlier, is now moving inland, IMO.

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Quoting setxjeff:


Thanks for posting. I've been a long time lurker and decided to join the conversation.


welcome...where are you located?
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Quoting Joanie38:


SWLA lurker here too :)


Gets on my nerves too! I am a south east texas lurker.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


yeah, don't know that I believe it, just thought I'd post it anyways....


Thanks for posting. I've been a long time lurker and decided to join the conversation.
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Quoting SwLAlawchick:
This stuff tends to get on my nerves.....they have no idea where it will go. This kind of thing may be what keeps someone from preparing. Btw, hi everyone. Long time lurker in sw louisiana. I just had to comment.

Good to see someone from SWLA :) Like me :)
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There should be curve north soon? All the models are showing this it looks like.
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3070. hercj
Quoting Joanie38:


Ok, what are the actual times? I have a hard time reading that..lol....sorry :)

1030 am edt and 2200 edt tomorrow
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Quoting btwntx08:

then why ur here and stop calling it pitiful cause it has a closed low


Dude.... they can be here if they want!!! you do not control whether people come here or not! Just because they dont think it will develop doesnt mean they cant come and join in on the discussion! Plus, anytime anyone thinks a system wont develop you bash them! You bashed everyone that said 92L wouldn't develop..... and look what happened. They were right.
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Quoting SwLAlawchick:
This stuff tends to get on my nerves.....they have no idea where it will go. This kind of thing may be what keeps someone from preparing. Btw, hi everyone. Long time lurker in sw louisiana. I just had to comment.



SWLA lurker here too :)
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Quoting hercj:

I'm wrong Teal 70 at 1430Z and Teal 71 at 260200Z


Ok, what are the actual times? I have a hard time reading that..lol....sorry :)
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Quoting will45:


FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Thanks.
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This stuff tends to get on my nerves.....they have no idea where it will go. This kind of thing may be what keeps someone from preparing. Btw, hi everyone. Long time lurker in sw louisiana. I just had to comment.

Quoting TexasHurricane:
Channel 12 - Beaumont,TX

IF a tropical system develops, it's not coming here due to high pressure aloft. The system will likely move westward into South Texas or Mexico by mid-week. Ahead of it Monday and Tuesday, afternoon highs may warm into the upper-nineties with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be from the east and northeast.

Rain chances will then increase Wednesday and Thursday as the low unwinds across South Texas/Mexico Thursday. Breezy east and southeasterly winds are expected.
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Quoting setxjeff:


News organizations shouldn't forecast like that. I remember back in 2005 when Hurricane Rita was approaching another organization stated that "Hurricane Rita wouldn't affect Southeast Texas".

Everyone should remain vigilant during hurricane season and hope for the best but be prepared for anything.


yeah, don't know that I believe it, just thought I'd post it anyways....
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3063. hercj
Quoting hercj:

Teal 71 goes at 1330Z and Teal 70 is out at 26 0200Z

I'm wrong Teal 70 at 1430Z and Teal 71 at 260200Z
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3051. Is the 93L?
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3060. JRRP

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whats up with that thing in the Atlantic?
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3058. fsumet
Quoting wxhatt:
Looking at the close proximity of the two features in the caribbean, I think they will merge.


That is what the ECMWF shows. 12Z showed both waves merging tomorrow night into Saturday. It is best seen on the 500mb vorticity fields.
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3057. hercj
Quoting ElConando:
Anyone know when recon will be heading out tomorrow?

Teal 71 goes at 1330Z and Teal 70 is out at 26 0200Z
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3056. will45
Quoting ElConando:
Anyone know when recon will be heading out tomorrow?


FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Channel 12 - Beaumont,TX

IF a tropical system develops, it's not coming here due to high pressure aloft. The system will likely move westward into South Texas or Mexico by mid-week. Ahead of it Monday and Tuesday, afternoon highs may warm into the upper-nineties with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be from the east and northeast.

Rain chances will then increase Wednesday and Thursday as the low unwinds across South Texas/Mexico Thursday. Breezy east and southeasterly winds are expected.


News organizations shouldn't forecast like that. I remember back in 2005 when Hurricane Rita was approaching another organization stated that "Hurricane Rita wouldn't affect Southeast Texas".

Everyone should remain vigilant during hurricane season and hope for the best but be prepared for anything.
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3054. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
That is a really cool satellite loop Keep. I can see how the eye wall smooths itself out. Going from ragged to a perfect circle and doing it quickly I should say.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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