93L slow to develop, but bringing heavy rains to Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 22, 2010

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A modest region of intense thunderstorms (Invest 93L) is over the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola. This disturbance has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. We don't have any buoys near 93L, but pressures at the ground stations surrounding the storm are not falling. A pass of the ASCAT satellite over the Central Caribbean at 9:45 pm EDT last night revealed a modest wind shift associated with 93L, but nothing at all close to a surface circulation. Top surface winds seen by ASCAT were 15 - 20 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. The atmosphere over the Caribbean has moistened over the past day, which should aid development of 93L. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development, but close enough to provide good upper-level outflow for the storm. Visible satellite loops show high level cirrus clouds streaming away from 93L to the northeast, evidence of the upper-level outflow channel that is developing to the storm's north. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The main negative for 93L continues to be lack of spin. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past day, but 93L needs to acquire additional spin before it can grow more organized. I speculate that it is this lack of spin that contributed to the loss of much of 93L's heavy thunderstorm activity last night. The storm is now going through a cycle where it is building another respectable mass of heavy thunderstorms, and the increased inflow of low-level air that will feed these thunderstorms will likely enhance 93L's spin today. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Wednesday afternoon, with Thursday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air absent, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Thursday, and it is a bit of a surprise to me that the computer models have been reluctant to develop 93L. The GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not develop 93L, and the ECMWF model doesn't develop 93L until after it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico in a about a week. The current (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicts 93L will be a weak tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico in five days; its previous run had 93L as a major hurricane in the Gulf. Given all this model reluctance and the current disorganization of 93L, I give the storm a low (less than 20% chance) of becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwestern Haiti today through Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday, and western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 6 knots (7 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. early next week. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast in the oil spill region. This is the solution of the Canadian GEM model. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards towards the Texas coast. This is the solution of the ECMWF model. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf, and some of the models predict this shear will remain over the Gulf over the next 7 - 10 days. However, other models predict that this band of high shear will retreat northwards and leave the Gulf nearly shear-free. The long-term fate of 93L remains very murky. My main concerns at this point are the potential for 3 - 6 inches of rain in Haiti over the next two days, and the possibility 93L could become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation elsewhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 250
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 250 lives. The heavy rains and floods ravaging 10 southern Chinese provinces had killed 199 and left 123 missing as of 11:00 a.m. Tuesday, a Ministry of Civil Affairs statement said. Damage is estimated at $6.2 billion. Floods and landslides in neighboring areas of Myanmar (Burma) have claimed at least 63 lives in the past week.


Figure 2. Paramilitary policemen help evacuate residents from Wanjia village of Fuzhou City, East China's Jiangxi province, June 22, 2010. Days of heavy rain burst the Changkai Dike of Fu River on June 21, threatening the lives of 145,000 local people. Local authorities have ordered immediate evacuation, and the army and paramilitary police have begun conducting rescue operations. Image credit: Xinhua.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) The latest on 93L
2) Which model is the most reliable?

Today's show will be 30 - 40 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:
chicklit...that's yesterday...6-22-10.

Hi Ike, so that means they're flying today.
Yippee.
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3545. gator23
Quoting twhcracker:


you cannot pave right up to a tree. in order to pave you have to have a sub base and a base, then asphalt. in order to have a sub base and a base, it would kill a tree unless you first removed a lot of dirt. and nobody does that.

There is a tree in my nieghborhood surrounded by asphalt with no dirt to be found, I often wonder how it survived.
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Quoting smmcdavid:
Good morning all!... Can anyone give me any quick, useful updates on our invest of choice for the week? Thanks...



NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AMZ089-231530-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W WILL MOVE W REACHING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
WAVE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W. THIS WAVE WILL MOVER NW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.


(...or one could read back here for ten pages)

Good Morning
CRS
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3542. Patrap
93L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125695
From Tampa AFD: THE
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
IS RATHER LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH
DAY.
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just for jokes

93L via SSD location has an eye

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
Interesting how the anticyclone has widened considerably. (click plus and minus 3 hour)

ShearMap
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3538. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Wow IKE, you're in a typing mood this morning. The last thing we need is a storm of any magnitude rampaging in to the Gulf...the outcome will be horrible at best. I'm sick of this oil mess (as are you), but a T.S. or hurricane will make life miserable for us folks on the coast, as if it's not bad enough already for the shrimpers, crabbers and recreational fishers to boot.


LOL..I was quoting Bastardi.
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I really thought 93L would look better than it does

GFS may be right again; the energy is too spread out and each of these areas of convection are too close together and are robbing energy from each other

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3536. 34chip
Lived here 16 years and always enjoy this time of year in Key West and the Florida Keys. It looks like we are in for a feww wet days here. Been dry here.
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3535. IKE
chicklit...that's yesterday...6-22-10.
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Wow IKE, you're in a typing mood this morning. The last thing we need is a storm of any magnitude rampaging in to the Gulf...the outcome will be horrible at best. I'm sick of this oil mess (as are you), but a T.S. or hurricane will make life miserable for us folks on the coast, as if it's not bad enough already for the shrimpers, crabbers and recreational fishers to boot.
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HH Plan for tomorrow:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 221500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 22 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-022

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1330Z
D. 17.0N 77.5W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 24/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 24/0100Z
D. 17.5N 79.5W
E. 24/0400Z TO 24/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
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3532. GetReal
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Quoting sailingallover:

But wouldn't that be better? If a storm washes all the oil into tar way up above the water line it will have way less environmental impact as far as Life goes. You can pave right up to a tree but a snail in the water gets suffocated..



you cannot pave right up to a tree. in order to pave you have to have a sub base and a base, then asphalt. in order to have a sub base and a base, it would kill a tree unless you first removed a lot of dirt. and nobody does that.
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Wow what a mess we have this morning!



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The center was never moved Jeff, ssd has always had the center there while the nhc has had it further west

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AFD from NWS Melbourne, FL:

SAT-TUES...LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS MODELS TRACK A TROPICAL LOW OUT OF THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN
SEA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY WEAK
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...DISPLAYING ONLY A WEAK LOW OVER THE
GULF BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEFINITELY A STRONG OUTLIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM COMPARED TO OTHER LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER EITHER WAY
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL FLORIDA AS IT
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. WILL SEE MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA THOUGH UNDER THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.


Let's hope they are right about not seeing direct impacts here!!!
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Quoting txag91met:
Whatever it is it is getting ripped by the outflow from 93L.


R
Quoting txag91met:
Whatever it is it is getting ripped by the outflow from 93L.

Quoting kmanislander:


I think it is more than just that. Take a look at the lower right side of this image.


Really ripped now...look at satellite. I still can't find any evidence of a surface circulation with 93L...wait until tomorrow.
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Can someone tell if and when the Hurricane Hunters are supposed to be in the blobs?
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Good morning everyone, 93L still is not getting its act together
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Quoting weatherman566:


Yes and no. Since a an area of low pressure moves counterclockwise, the winds would blow away from the shore on the storm's west side. In other words, if the system is east of New Orleans, then yes, New Orleans would be spared. However, winds would blow on shore towards Mississippi and Alabama, which could be bad (oil fears). So, it could be a good thing and a bad thing if a tropical system is east of Louisiana.


Lets just say "someone" is gonna get screwed!
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1135
Quoting Jeff9641:


Center relocated to the position I said it would yesterday. I knew this was right.

What center???
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1005
Weak Moves West not North
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Quoting 34chip:
I think Key West will only get a increase chance of rain. How does everyone see it????
Key West always has a chance of rain lol.
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Good morning, everyone. I know all eyes are on the Caribbean right now, but lookie what just came off of Cape Verde:
IRStill

And what's behind it ain't pretty.
Link
(click on either water vapor)
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3517. Patrap
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125695
Quoting BobinTampa:
Stupid question possibly: wouldn't a tropical system located to the east of Lousiana actually be a good thing for them? Wouldn't the winds drive oil away from the coast?



Yes and no. Since a an area of low pressure moves counterclockwise, the winds would blow away from the shore on the storm's west side. In other words, if the system is east of New Orleans, then yes, New Orleans would be spared. However, winds would blow on shore towards Mississippi and Alabama, which could be bad (oil fears). So, it could be a good thing and a bad thing if a tropical system is east of Louisiana.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
I do think explosive development as well. This will occur in the NW Caribbean and Eastern Gulf and shoot up the Eastern US.


I am more in line with that thinking as well as long as the timing is right to catch that trough. The fact that this keeps wanting to reform further west means a faster resolution, which means further west but eventually means a definite pick up by the tough and a more eastern path in the end, IMO
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1135
now this seem correct

23/1145 UTC 16.7N 72.6W TOO WEAK 93L
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
3512. 34chip
I think Key West will only get a increase chance of rain. How does everyone see it????
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3511. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


963

WHXX01 KWBC 230914

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0914 UTC WED JUN 23 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100623 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100623 0600 100623 1800 100624 0600 100624 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.6N 76.0W 16.4N 78.1W 16.9N 79.9W 17.7N 81.7W

BAMD 15.6N 76.0W 16.0N 77.7W 16.1N 79.2W 16.1N 80.6W

BAMM 15.6N 76.0W 16.2N 78.0W 16.6N 79.5W 17.0N 80.9W

LBAR 15.6N 76.0W 16.0N 77.9W 16.5N 80.0W 17.0N 82.0W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 41KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 41KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100625 0600 100626 0600 100627 0600 100628 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.2N 83.2W 19.6N 86.2W 21.3N 89.0W 23.2N 91.7W

BAMD 16.2N 82.0W 16.8N 85.1W 17.7N 88.2W 18.4N 91.2W

BAMM 17.3N 82.2W 18.5N 85.0W 20.0N 87.8W 21.5N 90.6W

LBAR 17.6N 83.9W 19.5N 87.7W 21.6N 90.5W 23.1N 91.8W

SHIP 51KTS 68KTS 80KTS 86KTS

DSHP 51KTS 68KTS 61KTS 39KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 76.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 74.4W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 11KT

LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 71.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$
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Quoting 34chip:
How does anyone see Key West being effective by this wave or waves. Thanks
Some of this moisture should be thrown up that way soon.
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Quoting aquak9:
mickey mouse = two blobs, like mickey mouse ears

Recon or no? getting some mixed signals herer to say the least.


It was a had to be here moment, the blog is moving too fast for me to back read and find the loop. It was just firing of convection as StormW pointed out.
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The region is starting to come under some shear as the anticyclone moves west...

That to the east of the invest will not likely develop.
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Have a nice day everyone!
Gotta go get the kiddies ready for Day Camp
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Sorry Hebert.
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Quoting IKE:
"Last night, I went into the dissertation of how this could be a strong storm and lo and behold, there is the Euro this morning with the farther east track, and of course that would imply the system gets stacked, and if it gets stacked, it gets jacked. It also means that the oil slick area could be directly impacted by this, and a lot of questions as to what a hurricane would do there could get answered next week at this time. While not etched in stone, that farther east track is more appealing to me by the minute. Why? Well remember, this is not a development with one particular wave, but the product of the OVERALL pattern producing the pressure falls and then the organization of the system... which can be in a variety of places in the western Caribbean. One sees that with the large area of spread out convection but its a sign a lot of energy can be bundled! And there in lies the key, there is a lot of energy, that if it gets focused can give us a powerful June storm. That long boring dissertation is below.".........


Sounds like stormtop/stormno/stormkat/debbykat.


LOL maybe JB "IS" stormtop/stormno/stormkat/debbykat

lol
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1135
Quoting StormSurgeon:


I was on Dauphin Island this weekend. Lots of activity and needed a pass to get on the west end. Only saw a few tar balls though. Oil will be in the trees.

But wouldn't that be better? If a storm washes all the oil into tar way up above the water line it will have way less environmental impact as far as Life goes. You can pave right up to a tree but a snail in the water gets suffocated..

Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1005
Quoting Jeff9641:


No it didn't! Let me guess this spin came out of no where S of Haiti LOL.


not all...
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3501. aquak9
mickey mouse = two blobs, like mickey mouse ears

Recon or no? getting some mixed signals herer to say the least.
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Quoting StormW:


Just the way thunderstorms are firing in that area.


Thank you my dear. Good to see your familiar face during hurricane season with valuable information as per usual. :)
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3498. IKE
"Last night, I went into the dissertation of how this could be a strong storm and lo and behold, there is the Euro this morning with the farther east track, and of course that would imply the system gets stacked, and if it gets stacked, it gets jacked. It also means that the oil slick area could be directly impacted by this, and a lot of questions as to what a hurricane would do there could get answered next week at this time. While not etched in stone, that farther east track is more appealing to me by the minute. Why? Well remember, this is not a development with one particular wave, but the product of the OVERALL pattern producing the pressure falls and then the organization of the system... which can be in a variety of places in the western Caribbean. One sees that with the large area of spread out convection but its a sign a lot of energy can be bundled! And there in lies the key, there is a lot of energy, that if it gets focused can give us a powerful June storm. That long boring dissertation is below.".........


Sounds like stormtop/stormno/stormkat/debbykat.
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JB says that this development in the Caribbean is similar to Typhoon development in the WPAC. Interesting.
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OK I got why it jumps all over.
In very basic terms they take the SAT/RADAR measured vorticity and condense it to a point.

Since the Vorticity is a long blob along or around the waves or right now half over land( they discount that part) THAT is where they seed the Storm with a bogus center


http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/tutorial/hurricanes/AHW_initialization.pdf
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1005

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.