93L slow to develop, but bringing heavy rains to Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 22, 2010

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A modest region of intense thunderstorms (Invest 93L) is over the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola. This disturbance has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. We don't have any buoys near 93L, but pressures at the ground stations surrounding the storm are not falling. A pass of the ASCAT satellite over the Central Caribbean at 9:45 pm EDT last night revealed a modest wind shift associated with 93L, but nothing at all close to a surface circulation. Top surface winds seen by ASCAT were 15 - 20 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. The atmosphere over the Caribbean has moistened over the past day, which should aid development of 93L. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development, but close enough to provide good upper-level outflow for the storm. Visible satellite loops show high level cirrus clouds streaming away from 93L to the northeast, evidence of the upper-level outflow channel that is developing to the storm's north. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The main negative for 93L continues to be lack of spin. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past day, but 93L needs to acquire additional spin before it can grow more organized. I speculate that it is this lack of spin that contributed to the loss of much of 93L's heavy thunderstorm activity last night. The storm is now going through a cycle where it is building another respectable mass of heavy thunderstorms, and the increased inflow of low-level air that will feed these thunderstorms will likely enhance 93L's spin today. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Wednesday afternoon, with Thursday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air absent, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Thursday, and it is a bit of a surprise to me that the computer models have been reluctant to develop 93L. The GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not develop 93L, and the ECMWF model doesn't develop 93L until after it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico in a about a week. The current (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicts 93L will be a weak tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico in five days; its previous run had 93L as a major hurricane in the Gulf. Given all this model reluctance and the current disorganization of 93L, I give the storm a low (less than 20% chance) of becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwestern Haiti today through Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday, and western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 6 knots (7 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. early next week. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast in the oil spill region. This is the solution of the Canadian GEM model. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards towards the Texas coast. This is the solution of the ECMWF model. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf, and some of the models predict this shear will remain over the Gulf over the next 7 - 10 days. However, other models predict that this band of high shear will retreat northwards and leave the Gulf nearly shear-free. The long-term fate of 93L remains very murky. My main concerns at this point are the potential for 3 - 6 inches of rain in Haiti over the next two days, and the possibility 93L could become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation elsewhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 250
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 250 lives. The heavy rains and floods ravaging 10 southern Chinese provinces had killed 199 and left 123 missing as of 11:00 a.m. Tuesday, a Ministry of Civil Affairs statement said. Damage is estimated at $6.2 billion. Floods and landslides in neighboring areas of Myanmar (Burma) have claimed at least 63 lives in the past week.


Figure 2. Paramilitary policemen help evacuate residents from Wanjia village of Fuzhou City, East China's Jiangxi province, June 22, 2010. Days of heavy rain burst the Changkai Dike of Fu River on June 21, threatening the lives of 145,000 local people. Local authorities have ordered immediate evacuation, and the army and paramilitary police have begun conducting rescue operations. Image credit: Xinhua.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) The latest on 93L
2) Which model is the most reliable?

Today's show will be 30 - 40 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:

I thought the EPAC was supposed to be average or below this year, maybe they got the wrong basins in their predictions or its starting to look that way.

MJO and the epac season is 15 days ahead of the atlantic. nothing surprising to me yet.
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Blog Update!

June 22, 2010 - 8:35 PM EDT - 93L -
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
is that a spin i see with 93L twin

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
Quoting gbreezegirl:
So here I sit in
Gulf Breeze wondering - hmmmm this is not looking so good for the home team. Even if it heads towards Texas or Mexico won't we be on the worst side to get an oilslick??
I'm from g.b. also, but live in orlando now. So tragic what a hurricane will do to that lil bit of paradise.
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Quoting DehSoBe:
Could this be a Wilma and turn towards SFL when influenced be the upcoming trough? i guess anything is possible but this case is not probabaly. Who Knows????

I know how ot worry about hurricanes living on ST Thomas. But in all reality even though possibilities are endless for 93L trying to pick where a waves the is currently beating itself against Hispanola is going to re-curve and hot the mainland is a total crap shoot..

Also while the SST in the GOM are warm what is the depth of that warm water. I can't find my Oceanic heat content site. Anybody have a great one?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
lol...let it be noted that it wasn't even 8PM EST when this was written and the 2AM "color-wars" began.


Yes. Some people get way to caught up with the colors.
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2138. IKE
Quoting Delsol:
A quote from Dr. Master 8/27/05 blog
"I'd hate to be an Emergency Management official in New Orleans right now. Katrina is pretty much following the NHC forecast, and appears likely to pass VERY close to New Orleans. I'm surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet. While the odds of a catastropic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans are probably 10%, that is way too high in my opinion to justify leaving the people in the city. If I lived in the city, I would evactuate NOW! There is a very good reason that the Coroner's office in New Orleans keeps 10,000 body bags on hand. The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away. Get out now and beat the rush. You're not going to have to go to work or school on Monday anyway. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so--particularly the 60,000 poor people with no cars."

I remember being on the blog as we all wondered why more efforts to evacuate were not done. This is precisely why I've lurked on this blog since it started... I'm not depending on local news or TWC for my news for sure


You're smart. This is a great source BEFORE other outlets let you or I know anything.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2137. Patrap
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BEST position:

AL, 93, 2010062300, , BEST, 0, 156N, 752W, 25, 1010, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting Delsol:
A quote from Dr. Master 8/27/05 blog
"I'd hate to be an Emergency Management official in New Orleans right now. Katrina is pretty much following the NHC forecast, and appears likely to pass VERY close to New Orleans. I'm surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet. While the odds of a catastropic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans are probably 10%, that is way too high in my opinion to justify leaving the people in the city. If I lived in the city, I would evactuate NOW! There is a very good reason that the Coroner's office in New Orleans keeps 10,000 body bags on hand. The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away. Get out now and beat the rush. You're not going to have to go to work or school on Monday anyway. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so--particularly the 60,000 poor people with no cars."

I remember being on the blog as we all wondered why more efforts to evacuate were not done. This is precisely why I've lurked on this blog since it started... I'm not depending on local news or TWC for my news for sure

I remember that blog as well! Thanks for posting this.
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AL 93 2010062300 BEST 0 156N 752W 25 1010 WV
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10471
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:

I believe that the NHC will up t he %'s to a Medium Chance at 2 AM.
lol...let it be noted that it wasn't even 8PM EST when this was written and the 2AM "color-wars" began.
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Quoting StormW:


Correct!


how do you see anticyclones. idk what to look for?
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Based upon the last few frames of the satellite it is obvious that the anticyclone has positioned itself perfectly over the top of 93L and will help the low "breath" per se. It still needs to establish ONE llc to wrap the convection around but at this hour it seems to be getting slightly more organized.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
We have TD 5-E

EP, 05, 2010062300, , BEST, 0, 108N, 930W, 30, 1006, TD

I thought the EPAC was supposed to be average or below this year, maybe they got the wrong basins in their predictions or its starting to look that way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2129. Delsol
A quote from Dr. Master 8/27/05 blog
"I'd hate to be an Emergency Management official in New Orleans right now. Katrina is pretty much following the NHC forecast, and appears likely to pass VERY close to New Orleans. I'm surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet. While the odds of a catastropic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans are probably 10%, that is way too high in my opinion to justify leaving the people in the city. If I lived in the city, I would evactuate NOW! There is a very good reason that the Coroner's office in New Orleans keeps 10,000 body bags on hand. The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away. Get out now and beat the rush. You're not going to have to go to work or school on Monday anyway. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so--particularly the 60,000 poor people with no cars."

I remember being on the blog as we all wondered why more efforts to evacuate were not done. This is precisely why I've lurked on this blog since it started... I'm not depending on local news or TWC for my news for sure
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2127. Patrap
East-Pac spitting um out


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Quoting gbreezegirl:
So here I sit in
Gulf Breeze wondering - hmmmm this is not looking so good for the home team. Even if it heads towards Texas or Mexico won't we be on the worst side to get an oilslick??
Depends on how far east it's able to track.
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2125. Fluid
Quoting sarahjola:
nothing like that happened for katrina. all the media kept telling people was how bad it was going to be and to leave. i was there. everyone knew how bad katrina was going to be, just some people would rather wait for someone to take care of them rather than do it themselves. everyone in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama knew what was going to happen. it really bothers me when people suggest that no one was told of the dangers. we were told over and over. did spike lee mention how people were pulling up to the superdome in brand new cars filled with kids, with no food or water? did that documentary mention how the media was out there asking people why they didn't have food for their kids, and why they weren't just leaving instead of going to the superdome. i remember people telling the media who were warning them that the superdome was not a shelter, that if we have to we will get food from the concession stands. what? they have no food at the concession stands unless there is an event there. people chose to ignore the warnings and did exactly what they were told not to do and then wanted to blame everyone but themselves for the situation they found themselves in. if your to ignorant to understand get out or die then that your problem. personal responsibility!!!!


The reality is that in any population of people, and especially so in cities, you are going to have a certain percentage that can not take the action necessary, for any number of reasons. They may be ill, they may have mobility problems, they may have cognitive problems, they may simply have no money, or they may be somehow tied so that they feel that they can't (threatened with loss of job, fearful of loss of pets, or home) or shouldn't (be in a helping profession and remain behind), may have intended to but was thwarted at the last minute (car breaks down, someone has an unrelated un-expected medical event, can't locate a family member) etc etc etc.

Yes, you can say "Hell with 'em!" , but once you cross that line, your society will inevitably decay into something that reflects that attitude through out all its behavior.
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Quoting StormW:
Anybody else get the feeling Mother Nature ain't waitin' for July (or AUG/SEP)?


I think that your statement, could be an understatement. I don't think it's wishcasting to say we may be looking at a new phenomena. The red spot of Jupiter perhaps, or even what could only be described as ... waves of hurricanes.
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So here I sit in
Gulf Breeze wondering - hmmmm this is not looking so good for the home team. Even if it heads towards Texas or Mexico won't we be on the worst side to get an oilslick??
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2122. Bonz
Nope. I've been laying in my hurricane supplies and am almost finished. If things hold off three more weeks, I'll have my 2 weeks worth of water ready for the season!

At least it looks like this one trying to form won't be a S. Florida event. But I'm wincing at the thought of it in the Gulf now. Just what they do NOT need.

Quoting StormW:
Anybody else get the feeling Mother Nature ain't waitin' for July (or AUG/SEP)?
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So guys where is the COC now
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2120. bjdsrq
Quoting DehSoBe:
Could this be a Wilma and turn towards SFL when influenced be the upcoming trough? i guess anything is possible but this case is not probabaly. Who Knows????


A Wilma in June... probably not.
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Quoting DehSoBe:
Could this be a Wilma and turn towards SFL when influenced be the upcoming trough? i guess anything is possible but this case is not probabaly. Who Knows????
I don't think it will pull such a sharp right... Wilma was late in the season when strong fronts were in the gulf... right now we just have a very weak trofs around.
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2118. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
06/23/2010 12:23AM 2,158 invest_RENUMBER_ep952010_ep052010.ren


Another east-PAC TD!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
We have TD 5-E

EP, 05, 2010062300, , BEST, 0, 108N, 930W, 30, 1006, TD
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
Quoting DehSoBe:
Could this be a Wilma and turn towards SFL when influenced be the upcoming trough? i guess anything is possible but this case is not probabaly. Who Knows????


No..this is June, not October.
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06/23/2010 12:23AM 2,158 invest_RENUMBER_ep952010_ep052010.ren
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10471
2114. Patrap
Floater - JSL Color Infrared Loop
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Quoting sarahjola:
nothing like that happened for katrina. all the media kept telling people was how bad it was going to be and to leave. i was there. everyone knew how bad katrina was going to be, just some people would rather wait for someone to take care of them rather than do it themselves. everyone in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama knew what was going to happen. it really bothers me when people suggest that no one was told of the dangers. we were told over and over. did spike lee mention how people were pulling up to the superdome in brand new cars filled with kids, with no food or water? did that documentary mention how the media was out there asking people why they didn't have food for their kids, and why they weren't just leaving instead of going to the superdome. i remember people telling the media who were warning them that the superdome was not a shelter, that if we have to we will get food from the concession stands. what? they have no food at the concession stands unless there is an event there. people chose to ignore the warnings and did exactly what they were told not to do and then wanted to blame everyone but themselves for the situation they found themselves in. if your to ignorant to understand get out or die then that your problem. personal responsibility!!!!


i sort of agree, buuuut that's what happens when the government allows so many people to live off of it. when the government takes care of you and you 15 kids, you expect them to take care of you in a storm too.
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2112. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
0:00 AM UTC June 23 2010
===============================

An area of low pressure located 380 miles south southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better organized this afternoon. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development and a tropical depression could form this evening or Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
There is a HIGH risk of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
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2111. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Not ATCF but a satellite fix:

AL, 93, 201006230000, 70, ANAL, P, , 1570N, 7585W,


ANAL? Um...stands for? LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Drakoen:
Not really suprising to see the shifts in the GFDL and HWRF. Getting a system from the Caribbean into Texas this time of year is a difficult feat.

Oh, you said "shifts"...
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Quoting robie1conobie:
enter jaws theme music

Oh no! Ever since I saw jaws as a kid, I have been terrified to go in the ocean... I wont go in it! LOL
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Not ATCF but a satellite fix:

AL, 93, 201006230000, 70, ANAL, P, , 1570N, 7585W,
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10471
I think 93L has the potential to be dangerous system, especially for June!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


ssd has the wrong center

I figured. I knew they couldn't be right once I plotted the coordinates.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting StormW:


Looking quickly at a couple things, it may stand a decent chance at slow development...has to escape the ITCZ though.


Thank you! I always appreciate your method of communication. You always get back to everyone in a very prompt manner and issue very in depth and understandable forecasts!

Thanks for all you add to this blog! I have learned a lot!
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Quoting StormW:
GFDL:

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />

ATCF MODEL SUITE

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />

Hmmm. Well, if nothing else, the consensus is, it misses the loop eddy of deep warm waters. (Huge caveat on modeling a not-yet-storm)
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Quoting StormW:


FLOATER LOOP
enter jaws theme music
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2101. DehSoBe
Could this be a Wilma and turn towards SFL when influenced be the upcoming trough? i guess anything is possible but this case is not probabaly. Who Knows????
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Everyone who has plans this weekend need to cancel them we need you in here so get some popcorn and a cold one we are going to be in for the ride of our life
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Quoting 900MB:


Until this organizes I think all models are useless.


this is off topic, but your photo (only little) looks just like my highschool boyfriend, except you are not in your teens, but with just the little square, it spooks me every time you post. it's the shape of your head or something. i hope they don't ban for this
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Quoting robie1conobie:
agreed, but I bet none of those people stay next time! I would walk if I had to. Back to 93L

Hopefully so! And I would too!
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what is ITCZ?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.