93L slow to develop, but bringing heavy rains to Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 22, 2010

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A modest region of intense thunderstorms (Invest 93L) is over the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola. This disturbance has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. We don't have any buoys near 93L, but pressures at the ground stations surrounding the storm are not falling. A pass of the ASCAT satellite over the Central Caribbean at 9:45 pm EDT last night revealed a modest wind shift associated with 93L, but nothing at all close to a surface circulation. Top surface winds seen by ASCAT were 15 - 20 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. The atmosphere over the Caribbean has moistened over the past day, which should aid development of 93L. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development, but close enough to provide good upper-level outflow for the storm. Visible satellite loops show high level cirrus clouds streaming away from 93L to the northeast, evidence of the upper-level outflow channel that is developing to the storm's north. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The main negative for 93L continues to be lack of spin. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past day, but 93L needs to acquire additional spin before it can grow more organized. I speculate that it is this lack of spin that contributed to the loss of much of 93L's heavy thunderstorm activity last night. The storm is now going through a cycle where it is building another respectable mass of heavy thunderstorms, and the increased inflow of low-level air that will feed these thunderstorms will likely enhance 93L's spin today. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Wednesday afternoon, with Thursday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air absent, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Thursday, and it is a bit of a surprise to me that the computer models have been reluctant to develop 93L. The GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not develop 93L, and the ECMWF model doesn't develop 93L until after it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico in a about a week. The current (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicts 93L will be a weak tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico in five days; its previous run had 93L as a major hurricane in the Gulf. Given all this model reluctance and the current disorganization of 93L, I give the storm a low (less than 20% chance) of becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwestern Haiti today through Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday, and western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 6 knots (7 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. early next week. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast in the oil spill region. This is the solution of the Canadian GEM model. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards towards the Texas coast. This is the solution of the ECMWF model. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf, and some of the models predict this shear will remain over the Gulf over the next 7 - 10 days. However, other models predict that this band of high shear will retreat northwards and leave the Gulf nearly shear-free. The long-term fate of 93L remains very murky. My main concerns at this point are the potential for 3 - 6 inches of rain in Haiti over the next two days, and the possibility 93L could become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation elsewhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 250
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 250 lives. The heavy rains and floods ravaging 10 southern Chinese provinces had killed 199 and left 123 missing as of 11:00 a.m. Tuesday, a Ministry of Civil Affairs statement said. Damage is estimated at $6.2 billion. Floods and landslides in neighboring areas of Myanmar (Burma) have claimed at least 63 lives in the past week.


Figure 2. Paramilitary policemen help evacuate residents from Wanjia village of Fuzhou City, East China's Jiangxi province, June 22, 2010. Days of heavy rain burst the Changkai Dike of Fu River on June 21, threatening the lives of 145,000 local people. Local authorities have ordered immediate evacuation, and the army and paramilitary police have begun conducting rescue operations. Image credit: Xinhua.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) The latest on 93L
2) Which model is the most reliable?

Today's show will be 30 - 40 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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MiamiHurricanes09 maybe the reason why they put it far south is because they don't want to scare the Jamaicans LOL ps I heard news out of Jamaica They have captured the nortourous Dudus Coke
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Neutral MJO in the Western caribbean but just exiting a positive phase in the Eastern. Certainly not negative today but just around the corner.

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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I'm not sure where to put the circulation on my map so I'm waiting for the surface map.
Just use the coordinates on the FTP site.

AL, 93, 2010062300, , BEST, 0, 156N, 752W, 25, 1010, WV,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
EP, 05, 2010062300, , BEST, 0, 108N, 930W, 30, 1006, TD

Can someone tell me where to find information like that?

FTP site
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I still think the long lost 850 down in the SE Caribbean is going to play a role here soon.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol. I have no clue why the NHC put the location of the circulation so south. Looking at shortwave I would put the COC at 75.2˚W 17.5˚N.


I'm not sure where to put the circulation on my map so I'm waiting for the surface map.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


then maybe you should just wait until we have a system to post, because you seem to lack the patience

just a suggestion
good idea, see you all when TD 1 forms or If i have something to say about Celia and soon to be Darby. Good night everyone
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2437. nash28
Oh, I also forgot upwelling. Say a major out in the middle of the CATL forms and curves back out to sea. Depending on the deepening of the system, another wave behind it could bite the dust if it is coming off of the ITCZ and cannot sustain itself in colder upwelled waters.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
TROPICAL D AT 11 PM.

It already is one.

EP, 05, 2010062300, , BEST, 0, 108N, 930W, 30, 1006, TD
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Quoting kmanislander:


I believe there is even positive MJO, although I have not looked at the chart recently. This is a head scratcher for sure.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting all4hurricanes:

statistically 90l had 50% chance of forming 91L had 10% 92L had 60% and 10% and there was something else with 10%
so there was about an 84% chance we should have had a depression by now but we haven't that is why I lost interest besides the E-pac is spewing storms like a conveyor belt


Statistically your math is way off... lol. But yes, the Epac is very active.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Hi 09,
I think they put it under the anticyclone.
Could be.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I tell ya, it's missing something. Conditions don't get much better than what it currently finds itself in. No Moxie.
Like Drak said, without a center of circulation 93L can't sustain convection. And when you think about it, the lack of a circulation kills a system.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I tell ya, it's missing something. Conditions don't get much better than what it currently finds itself in. No Moxie.


I believe there is even positive MJO, although I have not looked at the chart recently. This is a head scratcher for sure.
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When is the new surface map due out?
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Quoting Patrap:
93L Floater - JSL Color Infrared Loop



Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..

lol!
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nobody lives out in the middle of the epac all4h. anyway, goodnight!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting all4hurricanes:

statistically 90l had 50% chance of forming 91L had 10% 92L had 60% and 10% and there was something else with 10%
so there was about an 84% chance we should have had a depression by now but we haven't that is why I lost interest besides the E-pac is spewing storms like a conveyor belt


then maybe you should just wait until we have a system to post, because you seem to lack the patience

just a suggestion
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Quoting kmanislander:


That would be understandable if the system was anywhere near Hispaniola. According to the NHC it is nowhere near there and that thunderstorm complex is just a distant cousin to 93L.

So Hispaniola is not supposed to be hindering its development. I would not be surprised to see a surface low spin up in that huge complex of deep convection. It has happened before.

93L is a riddle encased in an enigma.


I tell ya, it's missing something. Conditions don't get much better than what it currently finds itself in. No Moxie.
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

cyclogenesis is not a quick thing, not all blogs can form just give them time.

statistically 90l had 50% chance of forming 91L had 10% 92L had 60% and 10% and there was something else with 10%
so there was about an 84% chance we should have had a depression by now but we haven't that is why I lost interest besides the E-pac is spewing storms like a conveyor belt
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi 09,
I think they put it under the anticyclone.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting Patrap:
Im gonna add Home House Oil Boom to my Hurricane Prep List.

Maybe a skimmer too.


I added it initially. Then upon further consideration I decided that several galons of Dawn would be much more economical and efficient.
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Quoting kmanislander:


That would be understandable if the system was anywhere near Hispaniola. According to the NHC it is nowhere near there and that thunderstorm complex is just a distant cousin to 93L.

So Hispaniola is not supposed to be hindering its development. I would not be surprised to see a surface low spin up in that huge complex of deep convection. It has happened before.

93L is a riddle encased in an enigma.
Lol. I have no clue why the NHC put the location of the circulation so south. Looking at shortwave I would put the COC at 75.2˚W 17.5˚N.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
LOL GeoffreyWPB no not at all
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
I haven't checked in since about 5:30 and now all of the models have it going a lot more north eastern then earlier today...is this a trend you think? I live just east of Pensacola and now getting a little worried.
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Quoting nash28:
Here's the deal...

Yes, we have a potentially dangerous year ahead. What many are not factoring in are what "could" inhibit formation, even though the other parameters exist... For example:

TUTT- In the upper or mid layers will cause a significant amound of shear, thus disrupting the formation of a tropical cyclone.

Dry air- Any invest attempting to close off a LLC will have a hell of a time if it is ingesting dry air be it at the mid levels or low levels as we have seen

Land interaction- See 93L

So, there are many (not all of them listed here) factors that can destroy what otherwise "should be" a no brainer development.


and just because it is expected to be an above average season, does not by any means none of those storms wont struggle to develop
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2416. Drakoen
93L is struggling because it does not have a center of circulation.
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2415. Patrap
93L Floater - JSL Color Infrared Loop



Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2414. nash28
Here's the deal...

Yes, we have a potentially dangerous year ahead. What many are not factoring in are what "could" inhibit formation, even though the other parameters exist... For example:

TUTT- In the upper or mid layers will cause a significant amound of shear, thus disrupting the formation of a tropical cyclone.

Dry air- Any invest attempting to close off a LLC will have a hell of a time if it is ingesting dry air be it at the mid levels or low levels as we have seen

Land interaction- See 93L

So, there are many (not all of them listed here) factors that can destroy what otherwise "should be" a no brainer development.
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Quoting truecajun:


can you tell me how to spot an anticyclone? i don't know what to look for or where to look. i tried google, but nothing helpful came up





I circled the Anti-Cyclone. This one is really big so it's rather easy to see. The arrows on the pink lines are pointed in a clockwise direction meaning Anti-Cyclonic flow and flowing in a spiral back to the center. It's basically an area of high pressure that resides in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The opposite would be a TUTT or ULL which are upper level cyclonic circulations.

The place to look is here under the wind shear tab.
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Quoting ATL:

Maybe some shear on the north side combined with land interaction is holding it back? The 10K foot mountains of Hispaniola don't do any favors for vulnerable TCs. I still think, along with most people on the blog, that we'll see a storm out of this eventually.


That would be understandable if the system was anywhere near Hispaniola. According to the NHC it is nowhere near there and that thunderstorm complex is just a distant cousin to 93L.

So Hispaniola is not supposed to be hindering its development. I would not be surprised to see a surface low spin up in that huge complex of deep convection. It has happened before.

93L is a riddle encased in an enigma.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2411. IKE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Are you the JFV of the Cayman's?


LOL!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Are you the JFV of the Cayman's?
LOL!!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting truecajun:


can you tell me how to spot an anticyclone? i don't know what to look for or where to look. i tried google, but nothing helpful came up


For a good explanation of an anticyclone, here is Wikipedia:

Link

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I wouldn't be surprised if this thing blows up during DMAX becomes better organised and nhc bump it up to 50-60% you al say 90% that the Hurricane Hunters will fly into 93L and that no doubt about it 93L will become a TD


Are you the JFV of the Cayman's?
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
I stopped caring about blobs after 92L died the first time. I never thought I'd say this about 2010 but my tropical interest has shifted into the E-pac. That only happened in 2006 and 2009

cyclogenesis is not a quick thing, not all blogs can form just give them time.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
Quoting Fluid:


The reality is that in any population of people, and especially so in cities, you are going to have a certain percentage that can not take the action necessary, for any number of reasons. They may be ill, they may have mobility problems, they may have cognitive problems, they may simply have no money, or they may be somehow tied so that they feel that they can't (threatened with loss of job, fearful of loss of pets, or home) or shouldn't (be in a helping profession and remain behind), may have intended to but was thwarted at the last minute (car breaks down, someone has an unrelated un-expected medical event, can't locate a family member) etc etc etc.

Yes, you can say "Hell with 'em!" , but once you cross that line, your society will inevitably decay into something that reflects that attitude through out all its behavior.

I agree. It makes me so mad when people say the hell with them idiots get what they deserve. UGH!!! For many reasons as you pointed out some can't leave. A lot have said the rescuers shouldnt have to rescue people after a storm since they decided to stay. Well at what point should the rescuer ask his/herself is this an idiot who just didn't want to leave? Or is this someone who deserves being rescued? Should they ask themselves while they're hanging in midair from a helicopter? Sorry for the rant.

i seems as i've been misunderstood. i didn't say to hell with people who stay, cuz i am one of them who don't have the money to leave. i responded to someone who said that people we're not warned, or told to get out, and that is just not true. nobody can tell me it is cuz i know for a fact that we we're told and warned. my other comment was about people pulling up at the superdome in nice new cars filled with kids, no food or water for them telling the news man that they would eat the food from the concession stands. i watched that on the news sunday morning. those are the people i was talking about.:)
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2403. ATL
Quoting kmanislander:


Funny how this is the year when all the conditions are supposed to be ripe for above average activity and yet here is a system underneath a ridge of high pressure and sitting over TCHP that is equal to the peak of the season and yet it just drifts along like it was on a lazy river ride.

Is there such a thing as having conditions that are too optimal ??.

Maybe some shear on the north side combined with land interaction is holding it back? The 10K foot mountains of Hispaniola don't do any favors for vulnerable TCs. I still think, along with most people on the blog, that we'll see a storm out of this eventually.
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Just did a blog on 93L.
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2401. Patrap


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

4km Remapped Color Enhanced Infrared Imagery
Link

Current imagery and loops of 4km remapped and color enhanced infrared (IR) imagery is displayed in an earth fixed coordinate system. IR imagery (~11 um) from five geostationary satellites are remapped to a common 4km resolution Mercator projection in an identical manner as the CIRA Tropical Cyclone Image Archive described in (Mueller et al. (2006) . These images are then centered and displayed using the nearest 5 degree latitude/longitude earth coordinate based on the most recent location and past 12-h movement. The images are also color enhanced with the coldest temperatures/highest clouds displayed as colored shades as shown in this color bar.

Geostationary imagery is available from GOES-East and Meteosat Second Generation (MSG; European Space Agency) in the North Atlantic, GOES-West and MTSAT (Japan) in the East Pacific, MTSAT in the West Pacific, and Meteosat-5 (European Space Agency) in the North Indian Ocean, and MSG, Meteosat-5, MTSAT, GOES-W in the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone basins.
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Quoting Patrap:
Im gonna add Home House Oil Boom to my Hurricane Prep List.

Maybe a skimmer too.


Just build a berm, or maybe a big moat. Yea, that's it, then when the oil gets into the moat, shoot at it with flaming arrows. :)
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I wouldn't be surprised if this thing blows up during DMAX becomes better organised and nhc bump it up to 50-60% you al say 90% that the Hurricane Hunters will fly into 93L and that no doubt about it 93L will become a TD
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting Patrap:



As the Models reflect, the NHC and climo..she dont get ramped up to TS status till the Yucatan Kman,,as Climo and History still run da Big Show.



I hear you. Climo still rules even in a hyped year. It has just entered what is supposed to be the start of a favourable area. Let's see how it does over the next 18 hours.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I know, but I don't pay any attention to models trying to work up an amorphous mix of clouds and rain. If it doesn't fire in the NW Caribbean then its back to the drawing board for answers.

Hey that's what makes weather such a fascinating phenomenon.
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I stopped caring about blobs after 92L died the first time. I never thought I'd say this about 2010 but my tropical interest has shifted into the E-pac. That only happened in 2006 and 2009
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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