New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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3928. Txwxchaser
7:29 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
I feel really weird now....i just refreshed and there was a new update...I swear!! And now there isn't.
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
3927. Txwxchaser
7:27 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
Wow...new update. Thx. Dr M.
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
3926. nwcarib
3:58 AM GMT on June 23, 2010
3925. nwcarib
3:56 AM GMT on June 23, 2010
3923. sailingallover
2:20 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:
new blog!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wait we are about to break 4000!! What's the record?
for June? For June 22? This should be being kept track of!!!!!!
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
3922. sailingallover
2:11 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

That is not where the area of vorticity is. The yellow patch is south of Hispaniola and extends slightly south-eastward.

O Hispaniola is the DR and Hatia.. that big island at the top of the picture.
Yellow patch on what? An IR sat pic?
The Yellow patch on the ASCAT is cape effect winds.
NHC has the waves along 71-72 west which is all on the the pic I posted.
So I'm wondering what you are looking at
WAIT you mean this
The 850 Vorticity in the CIMSS pic
The "yellow" in that pic is right on top of the black line I drew showing the location of the wave at 70W
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
3921. IKE
1:56 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Oh, and gd morning Ike and Tampa. Ike has oil washed up on your beaches yet?


Yes.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3918. CybrTeddy
1:53 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Oh, and gd morning Ike and Tampa. Ike has oil washed up on your beaches yet?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
3916. Tropicaddict
1:52 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting IKE:


Shows it moving 11 mph....slowing down to 6 mph on the end of the 120 hour run. That might get it up here in about 3 weeks.

*considers an early morning bag of popcorn*


You and your popcorn! How much salt are you gonna put on it today??? LOL
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
3915. ssmate
1:51 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
I know we are tracking 93L but I found this interesting from Paul Douglas, a pioneer in new weather tracking technology:
During a wild 8 hour period last Thursday, The NWS counted a total of 17 tornadoes in MN including 3 rare EF-4 twisters, nearly a mile wide, winds over 175 mph. During an average year 1 to 2% of all tornadoes touching down on America are EF-4 or stronger.
Doppler radar has cut down the death toll, but it's not perfect. BTW, radar was developed in WWII to help the allies track ships & planes. Radar operators were plagued by interference, strange smudges that made it tougher to track their military targets. Those annoying blips turned out to be rain & snow - it quickly dawned on meteorologists that they had stumbled upon a new and revolutionary tool to track weather.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
3914. HurricaneFCast
1:51 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting IKE:


Shows it moving 11 mph....slowing down to 6 mph on the end of the 120 hour run.

Yep, the heading, track, and speed are all borrowed from the BAMM.
Member Since: April 20, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482
3912. jrweatherman
1:50 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:
The bipolarity in the models represents the various potential solutions that could occur in what is right now a complex and ambiguous situation.



Say that 5 times fast! LOL!


And it took him about 3 hours to come up with the words for that one...
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 838
3911. CybrTeddy
1:50 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


Good analysis there CT...with that.....a concensus of models develop something! To the degree of that something is the uncertain. But, something will be forming one would have to conclude if you believe in models.


No one in particular, but some people tend to when the models don't develop anything to say nothings going to happen (*cough* TWC *cough*) yet when a storm isn't all to organized like 93L is, those same people say its going to get killed by some magical and non-exist barrier of 100 knot shear and the models are totally wrong. Not referring to anyone on WU. Its all about what you see and what you read, I personally know that when the models are all so strong on developing a system chances are on it developing. 94L in 2008 that became Dolly was very similar to the way this system has played out so far.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
3910. IKE
1:49 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting HurricaneFCast:

The SHIPS is an intensity model.. It received its "track" forecast from BAMM.. Check just beneath "Heat Content" and above "Individual Contributions to Intensity Change"


Shows it moving 11 mph....slowing down to 6 mph on the end of the 120 hour run. That might get it up here in about 3 weeks.

*considers an early morning bag of popcorn*
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3909. sailingallover
1:49 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting stillwaiting:
vorticity over the antellies looks pretty impressive at 850mb...

Shows up on the ASCAT too, NOGAPS had it developing, and it had great convection...yesterday.
The ups and downs are really extreme so far this year.. one day it looks great the next where did it go...but this one has rotation and you can always get convection out of 30deg water....
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
3908. CaneWarning
1:48 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Jeff got a shout out in the St. Pete Times:

Link
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
3907. Drakoen
1:47 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
93L is slowly gaining spin as shown in the satellite loops, MIMIC-TPW, and a recent cimss 850mb vort product.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
3906. Drakoen
1:45 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Great Satellite Loop to watch 93L
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
3905. HurricaneFCast
1:45 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting IKE:
12Z SHIPS aims it to the northern Yucatan, then the southern GOM/Bay of Campeche.

The SHIPS is an intensity model.. It received its "track" forecast from BAMM.. Check just beneath "Heat Content" and above "Individual Contributions to Intensity Change"
Member Since: April 20, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482
3904. OneDrop
1:45 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Guys, you are gonna love this one...8:30am radio newscast for local station..."There is a tropical disturbance in the East Carribean that National Weather Service says could intensify over the next 48 hours as it moves TOWARDS MEXICO."
Welcome to Florida weather casting for the tourists. I know a couple of runs on the 2am models showed it going towards the Yucatan, but a couple recurved it back towards Florida. With this kind of weather reporting, no wonder so many in Florida get caught at the last minute unprepared.


I live in Deerfield Beach and I think they are morons just looking for a story. The news stations are monitoring it and not getting to hyped up about it. The fact is that until a LLC develops, the models are totally wishy washy. For Florida there are lots of obstacles to overcome but for the Gulf, it just has to make it through the Yucatan Channel but only time will tell.
Member Since: May 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 144
3903. helove2trac
1:44 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Yea IKE i know what you mean asking for 2 storms is a lot because we cant even get one LOL
3902. weatherwatcher12
1:44 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting sailingallover:
THIS is the difference between a COC and a WAVE.





That is not where the area of vorticity is. The yellow patch is south of Hispaniola and extends slightly south-eastward.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
3901. happybrats3
1:44 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
When will Dr. M have the next blog update?

Thanks!
Tracey
3900. 7544
1:43 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting CaneWarning:
93L doesn't impress me.


92l was more fun
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
3899. IKE
1:42 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
12Z SHIPS aims it to the northern Yucatan, then the southern GOM/Bay of Campeche.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3898. TampaSpin
1:42 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
CMC begins to develop 93L in 60 hours.
CMC develops a system off Cuba in 102 hours.
Both systems under go the infamous Fujiwhara effect, also both are at least a strong TS at peak.

GFDL now makes 93L a 50 knot TS at peak.
GFS continues to not develop 93L
HWRF is similar to GFDL in intensity.
IIRC ECMWF and NOGAPS develops 93L still



Good analysis there CT...with that.....a concensus of models develop something! To the degree of that something is the uncertain. But, something will be forming one would have to conclude if you believe in models.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
3897. stillwaiting
1:42 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
vorticity over the antellies looks pretty impressive at 850mb...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
3896. CaneWarning
1:41 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
93L doesn't impress me.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
3895. sailingallover
1:41 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
THIS is the difference between a COC and a WAVE.




Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
3893. cajunroach
1:39 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
there's a consensus in the models that the bermuda high backs off around sunday..opening the n gom.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
3892. HurricaneFCast
1:39 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting helove2trac:
Is it possible to have 2 systems in the carribean one model is
showing that am i correct?

Sure, it's possible.. Although, If the circulations are within 900 miles of each other and of TS intensity or greater, it's possible they'll experience fujiwhara.
Member Since: April 20, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482
3890. stillwaiting
1:38 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
I'm thinking the stronger 93L is after it passes jaimaca will determine when/if it turns north,pretty good model concensus conglomerating in the SEGOM area!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
3889. IKE
1:38 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting helove2trac:
Is it possible to have 2 systems in the carribean one model is showing that am i correct?


Two? It's hard enough in 2010 to get one. I'm not complaining though.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3888. Crawls
1:38 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Question - Once organization takes place (in favorable conditions), won't a slow forward speed increase the odds of a major cane?
Member Since: August 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 272
3887. CyclonicVoyage
1:37 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting JugheadFL:
It is currently lacking the vorticity and convergence that will allow it to create a low level circulation. Until more convergence starts occuring, no COC will form.



Looking at CIMMS 93L is lacking a well defined circulation at all levels.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
3886. RitaEvac
1:37 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
So far Nuttin,
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
3885. helove2trac
1:37 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Is it possible to have 2 systems in the carribean one model is showing that am i correct?
3884. TampaSpin
1:37 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Morning everyone.....appears 93L is still poorly organized. LOOKS like its still a day or 2 away from developing if it ever does! Just looked at Visible and speeded it up....Looks like a surface low might be trying to pull together but, nothing truly apparent there yet. Maybe in 24hrs we will see a Surface Low develop as Vorticity shows mulitiple spins around a larger one. Cyclgenisis without strong localized 850mb Vorticity is always slow to develop! Just my thoughts for the mornging!



Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
3882. nrtiwlnvragn
1:35 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Various positions from the 12Z model cycle:


AL 93 201006221145 DVTS 1550N 7010W SAB LLCC DT=0.0 BO CBND MET=0.0 PT=0.0 FTBO DT PA=50 NMI
AL 93 201006221145 DVTS 1590N 7180W TAFB CSC NLINEMET= NA PAT= NA NLINE
AL 93 201006221200 ANAL 1525N 7240W CIRA CIRA Combined Multi-Platform Satellite Analysis

DVTS - subjective Dvorak

ANAL - analysis

CSC - cloud system center

LLCC - lower level cloud center
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10875
3881. JugheadFL
1:35 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
It is currently lacking the vorticity and convergence that will allow it to create a low level circulation. Until more convergence starts occuring, no COC will form.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
3880. CybrTeddy
1:34 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Quoting helove2trac:
hey guys how many of you think this thing will actually develope or just be another 92L


93L has a much better chance of development than 92L and 92L got close. Most models are supporting 93L, and very good environmental conditions ahead of it. No reason why it cant other than the issue with the LLC.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
3878. helove2trac
1:33 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
hey guys how many of you think this thing will actually develope or just be another 92L

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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